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Holland signs 4 year extension with wings **MOD Warning Post 130**



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#241 kliq

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 01:34 AM


If you want to read it as contradiction, have at it. I understand that the starting points are different, the Wings are a playoff team - not a team vying for a lottery draft pick. I agree, trading everyone for draft picks and starting over would be a bad idea, but then Holland should fill the holes. That's what Bowman did when he took over Chicago in 2009 and it's what Lombardi did when he got to LA in 2006. Chicago had to completely retool their roster after winning the Cup in 2010 due to cap issues. They kept plugging, though, and won another Cup, have made more changes and are a perennial contender. LA made at least a couple high-profile changes after winning in 11-12 and they cashed in again last year and Lombardi has been praised as a model GM. Can you rebuild from the ground up? Sure. Do you have to rebuild that way? No. In fact, what percentage of either of those teams was originally drafted by either LA or CHI during their last Cup wins? 50%, just over? Both Lombardi and Bowman mix solid draft/develop strategies with trades and FAs. Look at the Wings roster going into the season, based on NHL.com's projected lineup 20/23 were drafted or originally signed by the Wings (Weiss, Cleary & Gustavsson are the only ones not from the system). That's great to see that it can be done - but that defines 'sitting back and just waiting for talent to develop'. And, yes, I'm against it because it does take a long time to see any pay off... It's a credit to the Wings (and Holland) that it's worked this long, but as DickieDunn points out - it's a ticking time bomb...

 

I think we are on a different page when it comes to the definition of a "re-build" What Chicago and LA did was completely different. We are rebuilding our roster, what they did was make minor tweaks as all teams do with UFA and natural turnover. Neither really lost their status as Stanley Cup contenders.

 

If I believed the Wings were a Gaborik away from winning a cup, I would say go for a Gaborik (just an example, I don't literately mean go for Gaborik). But I believe that it is in the Wings best interests to be patient and hold on to their big prospects, and not trade for a rental or a band-aid. Once the kids are ready to go all the way, if you have your cap under control, that's when you make a big move.

 

Don't get me wrong, if the RIGHT trade or the RIGHT UFA comes along now at the right price, go for it. But make sure you take your future into consideration.

 

What GM's need to do now a days is project what the cap is going to be x amount of years down the road, project what they are going to be paying the players that will be on their roster, that at the moment are not signed long term (ie. Gus, Tatar, DD, Mantha etc.), take into consideration the cap hit their vets are going to have, and then see if they have the cash left for the guys they are considering to sign or trade for. Not as easy as it once was.

 

I would hate to see us lose a guy like Gus, Mantha, Jurco or Sproul etc. because we overpaid/signed a guy like Niskanen, Pouliot, Stasny etc. 



#242 frankgrimes

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 02:32 AM

As far as naming a GM replacement, it's useless. It wouldn't matter who I named, it wouldn't be good enough. GMs get replaced in the NHL, a lot, and by guys who many fans don't know until they get there. Again, I guess I just disagree that the only guy good enough to run the Red Wings is Holland. Way back when, I had heard a rumor that the next Wings GM was going to be Yzerman, but they wanted him to 'prove' himself with another team first. Tampa extended him by four years so his contract will be up the same time as Holland's now... 

 

 

If you want to read it as contradiction, have at it. I understand that the starting points are different, the Wings are a playoff team - not a team vying for a lottery draft pick. I agree, trading everyone for draft picks and starting over would be a bad idea, but then Holland should fill the holes. That's what Bowman did when he took over Chicago in 2009 and it's what Lombardi did when he got to LA in 2006. Chicago had to completely retool their roster after winning the Cup in 2010 due to cap issues. They kept plugging, though, and won another Cup, have made more changes and are a perennial contender. LA made at least a couple high-profile changes after winning in 11-12 and they cashed in again last year and Lombardi has been praised as a model GM. Can you rebuild from the ground up? Sure. Do you have to rebuild that way? No. In fact, what percentage of either of those teams was originally drafted by either LA or CHI during their last Cup wins? 50%, just over? Both Lombardi and Bowman mix solid draft/develop strategies with trades and FAs. Look at the Wings roster going into the season, based on NHL.com's projected lineup 20/23 were drafted or originally signed by the Wings (Weiss, Cleary & Gustavsson are the only ones not from the system). That's great to see that it can be done - but that defines 'sitting back and just waiting for talent to develop'. And, yes, I'm against it because it does take a long time to see any pay off... It's a credit to the Wings (and Holland) that it's worked this long, but as DickieDunn points out - it's a ticking time bomb...

 

What I said was in response to a comment which suggested nobody wanted to trade with the Wings. My comment was that the Wings did not have what teams were looking for in NHL-ready prospects. Would a team want Dylan Larkin or Andreas Athanasiou? Absolutely. Will they give up a top-6 NHL forward for one of them and a draft pick? Not likely. Could we get a top-6 forward for Anthony Mantha and a draft pick? I think we could... [Of course, I'm not suggesting that we should...]

 

On the TB/Dallas comparison, yes and no. On the surface, yes, improving a bottom-feeder is 'easier', but ultimately all three GMs face similar challenges, especially during the salary cap era. Again, the point of my original comparison wasn't to say one is 'better', but to suggest that Holland had taught these guys how to be creative and work themselves out of tough situations, which, to date, they both have...

 

I couldn't agree more that Holland is playing with fire. I think he's relying too much on developing everything internally. As I said previously, 20/23 will be guys drafted or originally signed by the Wings. There has to be balance...

 

Don't worry too much, some just can't put off their rose colored glasses. I.e if the team is bad let's blame injuries...team is healthy and still not good ? Blame chemistry, puck luck or whatever. Add to that the way too  soon and unneeded comparisons between Nyquist/Tatar to our only two remaining superstars and well the picture should become even more clear. The pretty much same thing is happening if Holland fails to sign much needed UFA help, it's either the player all of a sudden wasn't good enough, signed for too much money - because I'm sure the topguys are willing to sign below market deals on a rebuilding/tooling team - or (my favorite) can be replaced from within. I mean Niskanen at 5,75 for 7 years ? Hell yeah ! With an ever rising cap and his PP abilities this contract will be a steal when all is said and done.

 

I fully agree with your definition of bluechip prospects, there is a reason behind the term prospect and even if they rip up the AHL nobody can predict how their game will translate to the big league. Mantha will for sure get a fair chance and big look by Babcock but if he isn't ready there is no way he is going to throw him to the wolves instead of letting him develop his game in the AHL. Yes, Mantha has all the tools and should be able to become a great top 6 contributor for a long time but I'm hesistant to believe that Marchenko, Sproul are the so much needed fix for our defensive problems till proven otherwise. For some that's already  pessimism so yeah  I'd rather look at it rationally and be happy IF they surprise me or even better surpass my realistic expectations.

 

If I'm the GM of another team and Holland asks for defensive help in the category of Myers..well you can bet I would be asking for either Nyquist/Tatar or Mantha + a lesser prospect + a first rounder .. in reality neither Marchenko nor Sproul or Mrazek  are going to get us a powerforward or a top pairing defensive guy (latter are at a premium price right now so you gotta give to get). Given that these three (Mantha, Nyquist, Tatar) are very close to untouchable the only remaining option would have been overpaying for a guy like Ehrhoff who wanted 1 ! more year than the Wings were willing to offer and would have given us a much better defense nonetheless PP.

 

Also it's not the job of fans to look for potential replacements this should and will always be done by people in the know with a great network around the whole league. It's no secret some of us here wanted Yzerman as the next GM, that ship has sailed so have Nil;Benning but I think Kevin McDonald [Assistent GM of the St. Louis Blues] would have been a very interesting choice, this team is built the right way their defense may be the best in the NHL, tough as nails and with the addition of Statsny even their offense will be unreal.

 

 

 


That's really my biggest knock against Holland, he's been there long enough. Move on. He has nothing to prove. He's won Cups, he's got the longest playoff streak, he's drafted HOFers, etc. etc. etc. Let's get some fresh eyes on the organization and get ahead of the curve again in order to stay where we're at...

 

Fully agree I really don't understand why the guy is risking an almost flawless legacy instead of moving up and help teach another guy what it means to the GM of the Detroit Red Wings.


Edited by frankgrimes, 27 August 2014 - 02:34 AM.

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#243 number9

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 07:56 AM

 
Don't worry too much, some just can't put off their rose colored glasses. I.e if the team is bad let's blame injuries...team is healthy and still not good ? Blame chemistry, puck luck or whatever. Add to that the way too  soon and unneeded comparisons between Nyquist/Tatar to our only two remaining superstars and well the picture should become even more clear. The pretty much same thing is happening if Holland fails to sign much needed UFA help, it's either the player all of a sudden wasn't good enough, signed for too much money - because I'm sure the topguys are willing to sign below market deals on a rebuilding/tooling team - or (my favorite) can be replaced from within. I mean Niskanen at 5,75 for 7 years ? Hell yeah ! With an ever rising cap and his PP abilities this contract will be a steal when all is said and done.
 
I fully agree with your definition of bluechip prospects, there is a reason behind the term prospect and even if they rip up the AHL nobody can predict how their game will translate to the big league. Mantha will for sure get a fair chance and big look by Babcock but if he isn't ready there is no way he is going to throw him to the wolves instead of letting him develop his game in the AHL. Yes, Mantha has all the tools and should be able to become a great top 6 contributor for a long time but I'm hesistant to believe that Marchenko, Sproul are the so much needed fix for our defensive problems till proven otherwise. For some that's already  pessimism so yeah  I'd rather look at it rationally and be happy IF they surprise me or even better surpass my realistic expectations.
 
If I'm the GM of another team and Holland asks for defensive help in the category of Myers..well you can bet I would be asking for either Nyquist/Tatar or Mantha + a lesser prospect + a first rounder .. in reality neither Marchenko nor Sproul or Mrazek  are going to get us a powerforward or a top pairing defensive guy (latter are at a premium price right now so you gotta give to get). Given that these three (Mantha, Nyquist, Tatar) are very close to untouchable the only remaining option would have been overpaying for a guy like Ehrhoff who wanted 1 ! more year than the Wings were willing to offer and would have given us a much better defense nonetheless PP.
 
Also it's not the job of fans to look for potential replacements this should and will always be done by people in the know with a great network around the whole league. It's no secret some of us here wanted Yzerman as the next GM, that ship has sailed so have Nil;Benning but I think Kevin McDonald [Assistent GM of the St. Louis Blues] would have been a very interesting choice, this team is built the right way their defense may be the best in the NHL, tough as nails and with the addition of Statsny even their offense will be unreal.
 
 
 
 
Fully agree I really don't understand why the guy is risking an almost flawless legacy instead of moving up and help teach another guy what it means to the GM of the Detroit Red Wings.


The million dollar question, being asked for the millionth time, then who's ur new GM Frank?

#244 wings4thecup06

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 11:04 AM

 

Fully agree I really don't understand why the guy is risking an almost flawless legacy instead of moving up and help teach another guy what it means to the GM of the Detroit Red Wings.

 

I reckon the simply and short answer is, there is a new challenge that has arisen. Before, in the late 90's early 2000's, it was tweaking and adding little pieces to get us over the top. Ala Hasek, Robitaille, Hull etc. Lang. Stuart. Etc etc. We didn't need all these fancy first round picks, we could get who we needed. 

 

Now, not only is the cap a massive challenge, but the Wings lost Lidstrom, and competitive balance is raging on as ever. The challenge is now to keep the Wings competitive while building the team up without falling into the basement, so that in 2 or 3 years we can start adding those little pieces to once again put the Wings over the top. 


Edited by wings4thecup06, 27 August 2014 - 11:05 AM.

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#245 frankgrimes

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 03:31 PM

 

I reckon the simply and short answer is, there is a new challenge that has arisen. Before, in the late 90's early 2000's, it was tweaking and adding little pieces to get us over the top. Ala Hasek, Robitaille, Hull etc. Lang. Stuart. Etc etc. We didn't need all these fancy first round picks, we could get who we needed. 

 

Now, not only is the cap a massive challenge, but the Wings lost Lidstrom, and competitive balance is raging on as ever. The challenge is now to keep the Wings competitive while building the team up without falling into the basement, so that in 2 or 3 years we can start adding those little pieces to once again put the Wings over the top. 

 

Listen I understand all of that and I personally believe the cap has made a GMs job unneccessary tough in almost every way. That being said if I put myself in Hollands I wouldn't risk my legacy I would ask to become the VP and let someone else deal with that burden, by helping him in the best possible way. I mean the Bruins get PUNISHED for having a great goalscorer and success what type of system is that ?!

 

The problem with building the team up is simple: the Wings desperately need to find a way to get UFAs excited for this team again, which means young potential stars which means very good draft position. As of right now I'm sure people are aware of Tatar, Nyquist and Mantha but nobody knows how they are going to turn out/develop. Another part of the problem is that this is the swan song for the best coach in all of hockey, so Holland is dealing with a lot of variables here.

 

And that's why I believe a fresh mindset with no attachment whatsoever to any player would have been helpful.  Kenny is one of the greatest GMs in the game but his mistakes are starting to add up and that's usually not a good sign. Maybe he has become too comfortable and didn't evolve enough with the game  (happens to the best of them).


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#246 number9

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 03:37 PM

 
Listen I understand all of that and I personally believe the cap has made a GMs job unneccessary tough in almost every way. That being said if I put myself in Hollands I wouldn't risk my legacy I would ask to become the VP and let someone else deal with that burden, by helping him in the best possible way. I mean the Bruins get PUNISHED for having a great goalscorer and success what type of system is that ?!
 
The problem with building the team up is simple: the Wings desperately need to find a way to get UFAs excited for this team again, which means young potential stars which means very good draft position. As of right now I'm sure people are aware of Tatar, Nyquist and Mantha but nobody knows how they are going to turn out/develop. Another part of the problem is that this is the swan song for the best coach in all of hockey, so Holland is dealing with a lot of variables here.
 
And that's why I believe a fresh mindset with no attachment whatsoever to any player would have been helpful.  Kenny is one of the greatest GMs in the game but his mistakes are starting to add up and that's usually not a good sign. Maybe he has become too comfortable and didn't evolve enough with the game  (happens to the best of them).


I really doubt any players choose a team bc said had a high draft pick

#247 frankgrimes

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 03:39 PM

I really doubt any players choose a team bc said had a high draft pick

 

Players are looking at longterm commitments so knowing a potential superstar (McDavid, Eichel) will be on the roster soon isn't going to hurt. Sure there are lots of other factors too but NHL players and their agents aren't dumb they can see the big picture.


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#248 number9

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 03:56 PM

 
Players are looking at longterm commitments so knowing a potential superstar (McDavid, Eichel) will be on the roster soon isn't going to hurt. Sure there are lots of other factors too but NHL players and their agents aren't dumb they can see the big picture.


Cause Edmonton, Florida, Buffalo, Nashville, Calgary, Winnipeg, NYI, PHX, Carolina, Dallas and Ottawa have pulled in so many great FAs... Sure

#249 DickieDunn

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Posted 27 August 2014 - 10:06 PM

Holland hasn't stepped down for two simple reasons. He thinks he can still do the job and he's not ready to be the next Jimmy D.

Oh this young man has had a very trying rookie season, with the litigation, the notoriety, his subsequent deportation to Canada and that country's refusal to accept him, well, I guess that's more than most 21-year-olds can handle... Ogie Ogilthorpe!


#250 Son of a Wing

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Posted 28 August 2014 - 01:21 AM

Frank I don't even know what to say in response to you sometimes but I can't resist...

The Bruins are not being "punished" for success or having a great goal scorer. They legally evaded the cap and deferred their bonuses to this year by choice. I suggest you do some research there...

So in your opinion... To attract free agents...we need to not do well...draft high...get some good young players...even though you just claimed no one knows how young players will ever turn out...or was that just relevant for our current prospects...whatever benefits your argument at the time I guess... OK.

Where...in Zeus' butthole...did you come up with this idea...and in what universe did that make sense...

PS. I may have had a drink...
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#251 BottleOfSmoke

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Posted 29 August 2014 - 12:08 PM

Frank I don't even know what to say in response to you sometimes but I can't resist...

The Bruins are not being "punished" for success or having a great goal scorer. They legally evaded the cap and deferred their bonuses to this year by choice. I suggest you do some research there...

So in your opinion... To attract free agents...we need to not do well...draft high...get some good young players...even though you just claimed no one knows how young players will ever turn out...or was that just relevant for our current prospects...whatever benefits your argument at the time I guess... OK.

Where...in Zeus' butthole...did you come up with this idea...and in what universe did that make sense...

PS. I may have had a drink...


This post is approved by BoS.

And Zeus's butthole.

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#252 frankgrimes

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Posted 29 August 2014 - 06:15 PM

Frank I don't even know what to say in response to you sometimes but I can't resist...

The Bruins are not being "punished" for success or having a great goal scorer. They legally evaded the cap and deferred their bonuses to this year by choice. I suggest you do some research there...

So in your opinion... To attract free agents...we need to not do well...draft high...get some good young players...even though you just claimed no one knows how young players will ever turn out...or was that just relevant for our current prospects...whatever benefits your argument at the time I guess... OK.

Where...in Zeus' butthole...did you come up with this idea...and in what universe did that make sense...

PS. I may have had a drink...

 

Then stop reading it, problem solved. I don't have the nerves nor time to  explain something so obvious.


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#253 Nightfall

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 04:57 PM

 

Then stop reading it, problem solved. I don't have the nerves nor time to  explain something so obvious.

 

The point is that there are no guarantees that your strategy will work.  Look at Edmonton.  They have had a number of #1 picks, but haven't had a sniff at the playoffs since they went to the finals back in 2006.  They have had some great young players drafted, but why the heck are they losing still?

 

Don't get me wrong, what you suggest is what happens to every team eventually.  There is a natural ebb and flow in hockey.  Every team is going to have down seasons, draft high, and then find themselves back in the cup hunt.  The Wings are going to have a down season or two here soon.


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#254 frankgrimes

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 05:37 PM


 
Then stop reading it, problem solved. I don't have the nerves nor time to  explain something so obvious.


 
The point is that there are no guarantees that your strategy will work.  Look at Edmonton.  They have had a number of #1 picks, but haven't had a sniff at the playoffs since they went to the finals back in 2006.  They have had some great young players drafted, but why the heck are they losing still?
 
Don't get me wrong, what you suggest is what happens to every team eventually.  There is a natural ebb and flow in hockey.  Every team is going to have down seasons, draft high, and then find themselves back in the cup hunt.  The Wings are going to have a down season or two here soon.


No worries and to be honest I'm a bit shocked that the Oilers haven't turned it around but that Yakupov pick was a huge mistake. This is the first of season where they've tried to fix the defense and I expect them to finish a lot better but still out of the playoffs.

My point was if a team has to be bad this would be the year to do it because McDavid and Eichel are the best draft picks since Crosby. I mean they are so good the nhl had to change the odds in order to prevent teams from tanking.


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#255 Nightfall

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 05:52 PM

No worries and to be honest I'm a bit shocked that the Oilers haven't turned it around but that Yakupov pick was a huge mistake. This is the first of season where they've tried to fix the defense and I expect them to finish a lot better but still out of the playoffs. My point was if a team has to be bad this would be the year to do it because McDavid and Eichel are the best draft picks since Crosby. I mean they are so good the nhl had to change the odds in order to prevent teams from tanking.

 

Point taken.  We are going to have to rebuild eventually.  The question is, do the Wings do that now or later.  From the way management has been moving, it looks like they are going to be looking to make the playoffs again.  I was not a fan of the Jarnkrok move at all. 


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#256 number9

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 06:17 PM

No worries and to be honest I'm a bit shocked that the Oilers haven't turned it around but that Yakupov pick was a huge mistake. This is the first of season where they've tried to fix the defense and I expect them to finish a lot better but still out of the playoffs.My point was if a team has to be bad this would be the year to do it because McDavid and Eichel are the best draft picks since Crosby. I mean they are so good the nhl had to change the odds in order to prevent teams from tanking.


Except we aren't going to pick #1 or #2 unless we trade everyone of importance, which won't happen, making this an extreme tanking fantasy...

#257 frankgrimes

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Posted 31 August 2014 - 06:30 PM


No worries and to be honest I'm a bit shocked that the Oilers haven't turned it around but that Yakupov pick was a huge mistake. This is the first of season where they've tried to fix the defense and I expect them to finish a lot better but still out of the playoffs. My point was if a team has to be bad this would be the year to do it because McDavid and Eichel are the best draft picks since Crosby. I mean they are so good the nhl had to change the odds in order to prevent teams from tanking.



Point taken. We are going to have to rebuild eventually. The question is, do the Wings do that now or later. From the way management has been moving, it looks like they are going to be looking to make the playoffs again. I was not a fan of the Jarnkrok move at all.


Yeah at some point it's going to happen and I really hope a very good top 5 pick will be available by then.

I didn't like the Jarnkrok deal at first soon after a while I've hated it and still do. Also it looks like he won't be going back to play for Frolunda. Holland really blew that trade if you trade him package the guy for a defensemen : -(

Treading water can be dangerous as shown by Vancouver, Calgary and the late millennium Oilers (Questions about Sather started at that time although he was a god before he just ran out of ideas).
If this team would have still been in the west they wouldn't even sniff at the playoffs, so I guess Holland should be thankful for the weaker east.

Edited by frankgrimes, 31 August 2014 - 06:34 PM.

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