Franzen on IR

[number9 3,297]

Number9....just a few observations on your crazy stats and percentages.

- I know your numbers are completely made up, which you agree as well, but I think you feel they are skewed low....however, what's missing is how much time those guys are out. Sometimes concussions are very minor and guys literally miss a game or two. Whenever it is gets pretty lengthy, there is reason for concern....or maybe not in that we think the team is taking the right approach.

- Your made up numbers assumed a "measly" 30% would have occurred to guys in their mid-30s. What logic did you use to suggest 30% would be to guys in their mid-30s? Then suggest that you have skewed that lower than the likely actual? Considering that under 10% of the league is 35 or older, not sure how 30% makes any sense.

- But even using that, you've suggested that 18% is a low number of them that had their careers finished because of concussions. Firstly, 18% is a pretty significant number if you ask me, but ignoring that, it was only derived from the 3 high profile guys that were mentioned off the top of someone's head....there are likely many more.

Bottom line, whenever someone has been concussed many times and has missed significant time because of it, there is reason to be concerned and speculation of career limiting impact is not going overboard. There was quite a bit of speculation with Crosby that he was considering retirement during his concussion issues and he was only 23 or something at the time. I understand a lot of that was because of his high profile and I don't believe he and his family were discussing retirement, but the speculation was there.

I'm guessing Franzen will come back, but that doesn't mean the people speculating that he might not are idiots....it is a real concern. A real stupid analogy for you.....a lot of trade rumors go around and never end up happening, doesn't mean those rumors are baseless, e.g. Phaneuf potentially coming to Detroit. That may never, ever happen, but the discussions were serious. Some rumors are made up, some are exactly as what occurs and some are very valid, but never transpire to reality.

Way more than 10% of the league is over 30. The average age of skaters is 27.5. But the numbers are made up, forget it. It's dumb to argue about.

Expecting Franzen to never play again is a pretty drastic conclusion, when there's zero reports suggesting that's the case.

No one speculated Zberg would be done after his last chronic back issue. Wonder why that is...

I wish I thought Mule was taking a "Forsberg Vacation" duing the regular season, and would come back in the playoffs and be totally effective. Petey used to do this, as you might recall. But Forsberg was Forsberg and Mule is... not.

I don't expect to see Franzen in a Winged Wheel again. If not, I wish him well literally. Better to live and be healthy than skate again and risk permanent and more serious consequences.

Don't expect to see him ever again? There ya go

[Buppy 1,720]

Way more than 10% of the league is over 30. The average age of skaters is 27.5. But the numbers are made up, forget it. It's dumb to argue about.

Expecting Franzen to never play again is a pretty drastic conclusion, when there's zero reports suggesting that's the case.

No one speculated Zberg would be done after his last chronic back issue. Wonder why that is...

Don't expect to see him ever again? There ya go

There wasn't much in the way of speculation about Franzen last season either.

But when you consider that he has now missed 2 months, 2 years in a row with the same serious injury and he's at an age when many players are looking at retirement anyway, and the lack of any updates we were getting on his progress...

The concern and speculation are warranted. The fact that some people are likely speculating with a smile on their face doesn't change that.

[number9 3,297]

There wasn't much in the way of speculation about Franzen last season either.

But when you consider that he has now missed 2 months, 2 years in a row with the same serious injury and he's at an age when many players are looking at retirement anyway, and the lack of any updates we were getting on his progress...

The concern and speculation are warranted. The fact that some people are likely speculating with a smile on their face doesn't change that.

I'll believe a report about his career being in jeopardy when I see one.

But still, if there's been 800 - 1000 concussions over the last 10 years based on the 2011-12 numbers, guys cut short of their NHL careers bc of concussions is statistically insignificant. How many have their been? 3 guys? 5? 10?

10 of 800 means 1.25% of concussions are leading to shortened careers

Edited March 11, 2015 by number9

[gcom007 1,465]

Way more than 10% of the league is over 30. The average age of skaters is 27.5. But the numbers are made up, forget it. It's dumb to argue about.

Expecting Franzen to never play again is a pretty drastic conclusion, when there's zero reports suggesting that's the case.

No one speculated Zberg would be done after his last chronic back issue. Wonder why that is...

Don't expect to see him ever again? There ya go

I get what you're saying all over this thread, and I think much of the fan-speculation is silly too. But in this day and age, given how sensitive the entire sports world is becoming to concussions for very good reason, I'd say it's a good deal less outlandish to be concerned about Franzen's 10th concussion than any given person's disc issues in their back. Back issues are serious, no doubt, but they are not at the center of numerous lawsuits and major studies in the sports world like concussions currently are, again, for very good reason.

People may very well have an anti-Franzen bias around here that colors their thoughts, and earlier in the thread you might see that I asked if there was anything said officially on the matter of Franzen potentially being done, and when there was none, I completely dismissed it and left the thread. I popped in now and again just to see if there were any real updates and eventually did learn that this is his 10th concussion, which I was unaware of beforehand.

I personally have found Franzen to be a frustrating player as time's gone on, I'll fully admit that. I don't really miss him, but I don't really wish that he was gone either. I more or less stopped caring much one way or the other, because Franzen is who he is, an occasionally brilliant and occasionally lackluster forward. At least his cap hit is pretty cheap relative to today's market, so it's tough to complain too much. That's what I think.

That said, I read that this is his 10th concussion and I have to say I immediately started worrying about the guy. The reality of the matter is concussions are quite serious, and while he likely will be able to come back from this, there's going to be a part of me that's concerned for the guy's long term health. As frustrating as he can be as a player to some, and as underrated as he is considered to others, he's still a person who's had a lot of concussions, and that's just not a good thing to put it simply.

It's silly to be arguing about whether he should or shouldn't come back, let alone whether he will or won't. It's a waste of energy. If people want to waste energy, a better way to do it would be to simply express hope that whatever Franzen decides to do, he won't have any long-term issues from all of these concussions. At the end of the day, that's what really matters, and the rest is out of our hands anyways.

Edited March 11, 2015 by gcom007

[number9 3,297]

I get what you're saying all over this thread, and I think much of the fan-speculation is silly too. But in this day and age, given how sensitive the entire sports world is becoming to concussions for very good reason, I'd say it's a good deal less outlandish to be concerned about Franzen's 10th concussion than any given person's disc issues in their back. Back issues are serious, no doubt, but they are not at the center of numerous lawsuits and major studies in the sports world like concussions currently are, again, for very good reason.

People may very well have an anti-Franzen bias around here that colors their thoughts, and earlier in the thread you might see that I asked if their was anything said officially on the matter of Franzen potentially being done, and when there was none, I completely dismissed it and left the thread. I popped in now and again just to see if there were any real updates and eventually did learn that this is his 10th concussion, which I was unaware of beforehand.

I personally have found Franzen to be a frustrating player as time's gone on, I'll fully admit that. I don't really miss him, but I don't really wish that he was gone either. I more or less stopped caring much one way or the other, because Franzen is who he is, an occasionally brilliant and occasionally lackluster forward. At least his cap hit is pretty cheap relative to today's market, so it's tough to complain too much. That's what I think.

That said, I read that this is his 10th concussion and I have to say I immediately started worrying about the guy. The reality of the matter is concussions are quite serious, and while he likely will be able to come back from this, there's going to be a part of me that's concerned for the guy's long term health. As frustrating as he can be as a player to some, and as underrated as he is considered to others, he's still a person who's had a lot of concussions, and that's just not a good thing to put it simply.

It's silly to be arguing about whether he should or shouldn't come back, let alone whether he will or won't. It's a waste of energy. If people want to waste energy, a better way to do it would be to simply express hope that whatever Franzen decides to do, he won't have any long-term issues from all of these concussions. At the end of the day, that's what really matters, and the rest is out of our hands anyways.

Just because concussions have been sensationalized by lawsuits and former enforcer suicides, doesn't take away from the severity of chronic spinal and shoulder injury. Nathan Horton is latest to have his career end early because of this issue.

My issue is the double standard.

The reaction to Zetterberg being out is "I hear it's his back again, I hope it's not bad"

The reaction to Franzen being out is "I don't expect to see him play ever again, he should seriously consider retirement"

There is a lot more going on there than just the injury.

[krsmith17 7,191]

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2015/03/red_wings_johan_franzen_has_go.html#incart_sms_app

[number9 3,297]

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2015/03/red_wings_johan_franzen_has_go.html#incart_sms_app

Done forever

[HockeytownRules19 902]

Mule retire... it's not worth it... Great Wing when healthy, but take care of your son

[toby91_ca 620]

My less than 10% number was guys 35 or older, not 30. Absolutely mammoth difference between 30 and 35 for an NHLer.

Isn't assuming he'll be fine and come back fine just the same wild speculation as assuming he will retire? Granted, there is probably more "stats" to back up the former, but in all the stats pulled up, how many have been in his situation (age and severity)?

Anyway, I'm not assuming he'll retire, I'm actually assuming he'll be back. However, speculating that there is a risk he retires is perfectly reasonable in my opinion.

Also, I honestly worried about Zetterberg's future last year, not from the perspective of him never playing again, but at how effective he could continue to be going forward and how much longer he could continue playing.

[kipwinger 8,524]

Wasn't the point of contention that people were quick to jump on the "Franzen is done forever" bandwagon as a result of their disdain for Franzen, and not because there was any reason to believe his career was actually threatened? That's what it seemed like (five pages ago, or whatever).

If so, I think there's probably a lot of evidence to support this.

For instance, this thread was started on January 8th. Most of the posts immediately following the creation of the thread didn't even address Franzen or his injury, and instead focused on Pulkkinen. By January 9th people were already speculating that Franzen was done forever, despite the fact that the nature of his injury hadn't even been disclosed.

It seems naive to suggest that "wishful thinking" didn't play a role in how people responded to Franzen's injury. Which seemed to be Number9's point (if I'm reading it correctly).

Sidebar: The irony is that we now know that folks were wrong to be so excited about Pulkkinen stepping in for the Mule. Franzen was having a good year (22 pts. in 30+ games), and Pulkkinen has struggled to find his consistency and seems unable to stand up to the physicality of the NHL game (both frequently used to criticize Franzen). We're actually a better team with Franzen, regardless of what the haters say.

Edited March 11, 2015 by kipwinger

[RusDRW 155]

Wasn't the point of contention that people were quick to jump on the "Franzen is done forever" bandwagon as a result of their disdain for Franzen, and not because there was any reason to believe his career was actually threatened? That's what it seemed like (five pages ago, or whatever).

.....

please, change you avatar or, alternatively, post less. As a man, I feel offended.

[kipwinger 8,524]

please, change you avatar or, alternatively, post less. As a man, I feel offended.

Why? This is a gender friendly forum. If it were a half naked chick I doubt you'd be complaining.

[Buppy 1,720]

I'll believe a report about his career being in jeopardy when I see one.

But still, if there's been 800 - 1000 concussions over the last 10 years based on the 2011-12 numbers, guys cut short of their NHL careers bc of concussions is statistically insignificant. How many have their been? 3 guys? 5? 10?

10 of 800 means 1.25% of concussions are leading to shortened careers

Just because concussions have been sensationalized by lawsuits and former enforcer suicides, doesn't take away from the severity of chronic spinal and shoulder injury. Nathan Horton is latest to have his career end early because of this issue.

My issue is the double standard.

The reaction to Zetterberg being out is "I hear it's his back again, I hope it's not bad"

The reaction to Franzen being out is "I don't expect to see him play ever again, he should seriously consider retirement"

There is a lot more going on there than just the injury.

You're still glossing over a few key elements.

One: Few players play at Franzen's age or older. 41 skaters his age or older, 106 who will be 33 or older by the end of this year. 6-15% of the 690 regular skater spots.

Two: He's suffering from post concussion syndrome, which is different from a concussion. I couldn't find any real stats, but I've seen a range from 15-50% of concussions lead to PCS.

Three: It's a repeat of the same injury from last year. Again, no good stats, but most reports say that the likelihood and severity of PCS increases with repeated injuries.

So say your 1000 concussions is right, and let's say 20% hit guys in that age range, and 50% of those result in PCS, and 50% of those are repeats... Now you're down to 50 similar cases. so even just a few of those being career ending is pretty significant, and cause for concern.

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

Okay, so even with Helm and Franzen injured, Weiss is going to be a healthy scratch. That means he's below Andersson in Babcock's depth chart. Maybe punishment for those giveaways in the game Monster played. Not a good situation, anyway...

If Pulkkinen keeps playing well and Franzen comes back it will be interesting to see roster decisions.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

If Zetterberg missed 2 months at a time in back to back years because of a known back injury you don't think people would question his career being over, especially if he wasn't close to coming back at this point? I know is be concerned.

[Wheelchairsuperhero 1,453]

I actually really feel bad for Franzen. My opinion of him constantly changes when he's in the lineup because at times I love him for his consistency with point totals on a yearly basis and then during some games I'm slightly frustrated with how little effort it appears he puts in. Wish him the best though, I couldn't imagine having constant concussion symptoms, sounds like a nightmare and actually makes me nervous for him if/when he returns.

[Mckinley25 677]

please, change you avatar or, alternatively, post less. As a man, I feel offended.

I'm offended by that all white silhouette over a black background. I mean, what're you trying to say?

[kickazz 5,459]

1. I wasn't suggesting the media lied about his injury at all. And back issues end careers as well my friend. See Nathan Horton for the most recent.

2. As a medical doctor myself, my professional opinion is that I have no idea the extent of Franzen's personal brain damage/trauma because I'm not his doctor and therefore can't suggest either way. Looks as though Franzen's concussion expert in Ann Arbor feels he's capable of coming back though

1. Who said back issues don't end careers? Where are you getting that from? The point made was concussions affect brain health and have long term effects on cognition. And I specifically mentioned a "hernatied disc" because you were on about Zetterberg I never mentioned anything about a "back injury" as your trying to claim here. That's extremely vague.

This was my exact statement "A herniated disk doesn't equate to concussion and brain damage"

2. As a medical doctor you should know that doctor's can only give medical expertise and not breech patient autonomy. A patient has the right to do whatever they feel as long as no harm is coming to anyone else in society. Additionally as a medical doctor you should be able to critically think your way through his concussion history and extended length of time out per injury. This is a pretty bad set back for him. I mean the guy is getting symptoms even after 2 months have passed. That certainly doesn't sound too good. It would be one thing if it wasn't a yearly thing for him. But lately it has been. It may be PCS but that could be a stretch to diagnose.

Franzen's a great player with some bad luck. So is Zetterberg. Z could have easily continued to be a great goal scorer if his back injuries didn't slow him down. But no, a herniated disc would never cause me to think someone's career is over lol. Repeated concussions would.

Edited March 11, 2015 by kickazz

[number9 3,297]

You're still glossing over a few key elements.

One: Few players play at Franzen's age or older. 41 skaters his age or older, 106 who will be 33 or older by the end of this year. 6-15% of the 690 regular skater spots.

Two: He's suffering from post concussion syndrome, which is different from a concussion. I couldn't find any real stats, but I've seen a range from 15-50% of concussions lead to PCS.

Three: It's a repeat of the same injury from last year. Again, no good stats, but most reports say that the likelihood and severity of PCS increases with repeated injuries.

So say your 1000 concussions is right, and let's say 20% hit guys in that age range, and 50% of those result in PCS, and 50% of those are repeats... Now you're down to 50 similar cases. so even just a few of those being career ending is pretty significant, and cause for concern.

50 cases still puts the odds heavily in favor of Franzen returning

My less than 10% number was guys 35 or older, not 30. Absolutely mammoth difference between 30 and 35 for an NHLer.

Isn't assuming he'll be fine and come back fine just the same wild speculation as assuming he will retire? Granted, there is probably more "stats" to back up the former, but in all the stats pulled up, how many have been in his situation (age and severity)?

Anyway, I'm not assuming he'll retire, I'm actually assuming he'll be back. However, speculating that there is a risk he retires is perfectly reasonable in my opinion.

Also, I honestly worried about Zetterberg's future last year, not from the perspective of him never playing again, but at how effective he could continue to be going forward and how much longer he could continue playing.

Speculating that he'll return from injury is no where near the same. 99% of injuries are not career enders. Players are pretty much universely expected to return at some point, unless a report suggesting otherwise comes out. One suggesting so hasn't come out about Franzen yet.

1. Who said back issues don't end careers? Where are you getting that from? The point made was concussions affect brain health and have long term effects on cognition. And I specifically mentioned a "hernatied disc" because you were on about Zetterberg I never mentioned anything about a "back injury" as your trying to claim here. That's extremely vague.

This was my exact statement "A herniated disk doesn't equate to concussion and brain damage"

2. As a medical doctor you should know that doctor's can only give medical expertise and not breech patient autonomy. A patient has the right to do whatever they feel as long as no harm is coming to anyone else in society. Additionally as a medical doctor you should be able to critically think your way through his concussion history and extended length of time out per injury. This is a pretty bad set back for him. I mean the guy is getting symptoms even after 2 months have passed. That certainly doesn't sound too good. It would be one thing if it wasn't a yearly thing for him. But lately it has been. It may be PCS but that could be a stretch to diagnose.

Franzen's a great player with some bad luck. So is Zetterberg. Z could have easily continued to be a great goal scorer if his back injuries didn't slow him down. But no, a herniated disc would never cause me to think someone's career is over lol. Repeated concussions would.

As the world leading herniated disc doctor, I say nope, u wrong, na na na boo boo, stick ur head in doo doo

Wasn't the point of contention that people were quick to jump on the "Franzen is done forever" bandwagon as a result of their disdain for Franzen, and not because there was any reason to believe his career was actually threatened? That's what it seemed like (five pages ago, or whatever).

If so, I think there's probably a lot of evidence to support this.

For instance, this thread was started on January 8th. Most of the posts immediately following the creation of the thread didn't even address Franzen or his injury, and instead focused on Pulkkinen. By January 9th people were already speculating that Franzen was done forever, despite the fact that the nature of his injury hadn't even been disclosed.

It seems naive to suggest that "wishful thinking" didn't play a role in how people responded to Franzen's injury. Which seemed to be Number9's point (if I'm reading it correctly).

Sidebar: The irony is that we now know that folks were wrong to be so excited about Pulkkinen stepping in for the Mule. Franzen was having a good year (22 pts. in 30+ games), and Pulkkinen has struggled to find his consistency and seems unable to stand up to the physicality of the NHL game (both frequently used to criticize Franzen). We're actually a better team with Franzen, regardless of what the haters say.

B4 y'all continue to drag this out, read above

[Buppy 1,720]

50 cases still puts the odds heavily in favor of Franzen returning

Speculating that he'll return from injury is no where near the same. 99% of injuries are not career enders. Players are pretty much universely expected to return at some point, unless a report suggesting otherwise comes out. One suggesting so hasn't come out about Franzen yet.

...

The odds are heavily in favor of not dying on the first shot in russian roulette too, doubt that would stop you from speculating...

There isn't going to be any report because there isn't any way to tell how long symptoms will last. It's not like a broken bone that you can look at to tell if it's healing. Nor is there currently much concrete data on the condition. Symptoms can clear up in a couple months, but sometimes last years. No one needs a report to know that PCS can be career threatening; it's common knowledge.

Sure, some opinions are likely skewed by their dislike of Franzen and/or the high-profile nature of concussions. But if that's all it was, I'd think there would have been a lot more speculation last year. People hated Franzen then too.

[number9 3,297]

The odds are heavily in favor of not dying on the first shot in russian roulette too, doubt that would stop you from speculating...

There isn't going to be any report because there isn't any way to tell how long symptoms will last. It's not like a broken bone that you can look at to tell if it's healing. Nor is there currently much concrete data on the condition. Symptoms can clear up in a couple months, but sometimes last years. No one needs a report to know that PCS can be career threatening; it's common knowledge.

Sure, some opinions are likely skewed by their dislike of Franzen and/or the high-profile nature of concussions. But if that's all it was, I'd think there would have been a lot more speculation last year. People hated Franzen then too.

Great comparison.

PCS can be career threatening, but most of the time it's not.

There were never any legit reports that Datsyuk would leave for Russia, but people speculated. There haven't been any legit reports that Babs will leave for Toronto, but people speculate. There aren't any reports that Franzen's career is ending, but people speculate. You see where I'm going with this? When a legit report that Franzen's career may actually be in jeopardy, I'll pay some heed.

As Kip pointed out, people were speculating before the report was even disclosed. All it takes is one person to get everyone going. Much like the Franzen bandwagon hatred in general.

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

I think a lot of peoples' views on Franzen are skewed by a dislike of him, but I don't think it necessarily has to be the case here.

Think of when Crosby went through his concussion problems. There was many speculations that his career was over. It was pretty was pretty irrational in Crosby's case after 2 concussions, but anything is possible since concussions are unpredictable and most people (myself included) know very little about them.

With Franzen's case, we have been given so little information on how he was doing (until a day or 2 ago) so I think that may have contribute to people speculating. An absence of information always results in speculation. I originally assumed he be back after a game or two after he was out because it looked like he wasn't hit very hard at all to me. That's speculation of my own. I just think we're all kind of still in the dark with concussions.

As for people speculating on Franzen having mental problems such as anxiety and such, I think that's the result a general dislike toward him. Also, the way some people interpret his "just want to get back to having fun" and "I'm not a goal scorer" quotes reflect biases against him.

Edited March 12, 2015 by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

[Buppy 1,720]

Great comparison.

PCS can be career threatening, but most of the time it's not.

There were never any legit reports that Datsyuk would leave for Russia, but people speculated. There haven't been any legit reports that Babs will leave for Toronto, but people speculate. There aren't any reports that Franzen's career is ending, but people speculate. You see where I'm going with this? When a legit report that Franzen's career may actually be in jeopardy, I'll pay some heed.

As Kip pointed out, people were speculating before the report was even disclosed. All it takes is one person to get everyone going. Much like the Franzen bandwagon hatred in general.

But people don't hate Datsyuk or Babcock, so that kind of debunks the "people just speculating about Franzen out of disdain" theory.

If your whole point was just that people on an internet message board are prone to unsubstantiated conjecture, well...water is wet too. Fact is, none of that speculation is entirely baseless, nor did anyone say Franzen was done for certain. His career is in jeopardy. How much is open to debate. Maybe not enough to be worth discussing, but then again "worth discussing" is also open to debate. None of us have enough information to accurately calculate the risk. For that matter, not even noted concussion experts have enough information to say when, or even for sure if, he'll get better. I read one report that said as many as 32% of PCS sufferers still had symptoms a year or more after the injury. If he had to sit out a year, at his age, would he still be able to, or even want to, come back? Who can say.

What we can say is that there is some risk. For me, some is enough to be worth talking about.

Edited March 12, 2015 by Buppy

[number9 3,297]

But people don't hate Datsyuk or Babcock, so that kind of debunks the "people just speculating about Franzen out of disdain" theory.

If your whole point was just that people on an internet message board are prone to unsubstantiated conjecture, well...water is wet too. Fact is, none of that speculation is entirely baseless, nor did anyone say Franzen was done for certain. His career is in jeopardy. How much is open to debate. Maybe not enough to be worth discussing, but then again "worth discussing" is also open to debate. None of us have enough information to accurately calculate the risk. For that matter, not even noted concussion experts have enough information to say when, or even for sure if, he'll get better. I read one report that said as many as 32% of PCS sufferers still had symptoms a year or more after the injury. If he had to sit out a year, at his age, would he still be able to, or even want to, come back? Who can say.

What we can say is that there is some risk. For me, some is enough to be worth talking about.

Below is what I'm talking about

I agree that it's probably best for his own health to 'hang'em up' - however he'll go on LTIR just as Marc Savard, and Chris Pronger had done (collecting a paycheck for the duration of his contract, but the $$$ will not go against the cap).

[number9 3,297]

The same people who actually believe(d) that Datsyuk and Babs are/were leaving were the same who advocated tanking the team. They had a desire to dismantle the team. Just like some want to believe Franzen will leave so badly that they will look past the zero evidence (other than amatuer medical opinion) and state that they never expect to see him again.

I recognize theres risk, but the greater probability sits with him returning right now. So thinking it's best that he hangs em up right now, is pretty much 100% jumping to conclusions before all the facts are out.