Improving our 5 on 5 play....

[Richdg 267]

The past couple of years we have struggled in 5 on 5 hockey. We have had a pretty good power play and not bad on the PK. We have been in the desired 110+ when you combine the 2 %'s together. But in 5 on 5 we haven't been very good.

Using the advanced metrics (I am not the biggest fan of such things, but they do help rank things) here are our forwards and how they rank amoung all F with 750 mins of 5 on 5 time:

Cole 46-injured and UFA

Datsyuk 54

Tatar 118

Abby 136

Z 163

Nyquist 166

Sheahan 175

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201415&sit=5v5&type=individual&teamid=0&pos=forwards&minutes=750&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Now the question is why? Then the follow up is, how do we improve? The why of course is opinion. Mine is we don't have anyone with super skills. IE No one with the speed that scares and burns, or no one with the power and strength to scare. Both work.

Now Cole is gone. That is why I added Sheahan as the 6th. One of the ways to improve is to not have him as a top 6 forward. Same with Helm. Both have played in the top 6 at times this year. Heck I still don't think Abby should be in our top 6.

We also don't get enough out of our D. Using the same standards, here is how our Dmen rank for 1000 mins played of 5 on 5 time:

Dekeyser 27

KFQ 67

Kronwall 70

Ericsson 107

Now in simple math there should be 180 top 6 forwards and 120 top 4 Dmen. Of course many teams don't really have 6 real top 6 forwards or 4 true top 4 Dmen. A few teams have more than 6 F's and/or 4 top 4 D's.

Just using these numbers one could say we have no #1 Dman, a #2 in Dekeyser, a #3 in Kronwall, and a #4 in Ericsson. That isn't horrible. Of course finding a true #1 is very hard to do.

The F group is in some ways worse. Only Datsyuk is a clear top line F, when healthy. Tatar is a second line guy. Nyquist, Z, and Abby are more borderline guys for a second line. Sheahan really is a 3rd line guy.

The plus side is these guys are very good on the PP. Datsyuk was 2nd in the NHL on the PP. Z was 16, Nyquist 22, Tatar 35, Abby 88th, and Sheahan was 133. This tells me that at best we have 4 guys that are legit top 6 forwards on the team. Not a real surprise. many of us have wondered why Abby is playing in the top 6. This then means we need 2 top 6 forwards. Either prospects that step up or UFA/trades.

This means we need 3 primetime players that are very costly to pick up. Yikes. The good news is, we don't have to do it all at once. We do have to do it by the time the 2017/18 season starts. That is the season after Datsyuk's contract expires. Of course by then Z and Kronwall will be about done as well. That makes 6 big time players needed over the next 3 off summers. 2 Dmen and 4 forwards.

Had to edit for a math error. Need 4 F, not 3.

Edited May 12, 2015 by Richdg

[number9 3,297]

The past couple of years we have struggled in 5 on 5 hockey. We have had a pretty good power play and not bad on the PK. We have been in the desired 110+ when you combine the 2 %'s together. But in 5 on 5 we haven't been very good.

Using the advanced metrics (I am not the biggest fan of such things, but they do help rank things) here are our forwards and how they rank amoung all F with 750 mins of 5 on 5 time:

Cole 46-injured and UFA

Datsyuk 54

Tatar 118

Abby 136

Z 163

Nyquist 166

Sheahan 175

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201415&sit=5v5&type=individual&teamid=0&pos=forwards&minutes=750&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Now the question is why? Then the follow up is, how do we improve? The why of course is opinion. Mine is we don't have anyone with super skills. IE No one with the speed that scares and burns, or no one with the power and strength to scare. Both work.

Now Cole is gone. That is why I added Sheahan as the 6th. One of the ways to improve is to not have him as a top 6 forward. Same with Helm. Both have played in the top 6 at times this year. Heck I still don't think Abby should be in our top 6.

We also don't get enough out of our D. Using the same standards, here is how our Dmen rank for 1000 mins played of 5 on 5 time:

Dekeyser 27

KFQ 67

Kronwall 70

Ericsson 107

Now in simple math there should be 180 top 6 forwards and 120 top 4 Dmen. Of course many teams don't really have 6 real top 6 forwards or 4 true top 4 Dmen. A few teams have more than 6 F's and/or 4 top 4 D's.

Just using these numbers one could say we have no #1 Dman, a #2 in Dekeyser, a #3 in Kronwall, and a #4 in Ericsson. That isn't horrible. Of course finding a true #1 is very hard to do.

The F group is in some ways worse. Only Datsyuk is a clear top line F, when healthy. Tatar is a second line guy. Nyquist, Z, and Abby are more borderline guys for a second line. Sheahan really is a 3rd line guy.

The plus side is these guys are very good on the PP. Datsyuk was 2nd in the NHL on the PP. Z was 16, Nyquist 22, Tatar 35, Abby 88th, and Sheahan was 133. This tells me that at best we have 4 guys that are legit top 6 forwards on the team. Not a real surprise. many of us have wondered why Abby is playing in the top 6. This then means we need 2 top 6 forwards. Either prospects that step up or UFA/trades.

This means we need 3 primetime players that are very costly to pick up. Yikes. The good news is, we don't have to do it all at once. We do have to do it by the time the 2017/18 season starts. That is the season after Datsyuk's contract expires. Of course by then Z and Kronwall will be about done as well. That makes 5 big time players needed over the next 3 off summers. 2 Dmen and 3 forwards.

Wow, there are so many things wrong with this It's hard to even start.

Bare in mind according to these stats Tyler Johnson is the best player in the league and Jiri Hudler is the 10th best player in the league... and Mike Hoffman is 11th

[jimmyemeryhunter 2,747]

When did Dekeyser jump over Kronwall on the depth chart?

[Richdg 267]

There is no perfect stat. But you do realize that this year Hoffman was 5th in the NHL in goals scored during 5 on 5 play right? That is pretty darn good. That is also the topic of this thread. Not who is the best player overall, or on the PP or on the PK. It is about improving our 5 on 5 play offensively. So yes Hoffman under those conditions was very good this year. Better than anyone on our team.

[number9 3,297]

There is no perfect stat. But you do realize that this year Hoffman was 5th in the NHL in goals scored during 5 on 5 play right? That is pretty darn good. That is also the topic of this thread. Not who is the best player overall, or on the PP or on the PK. It is about improving our 5 on 5 play offensively. So yes Hoffman under those conditions was very good this year. Better than anyone on our team.

So what? You wanna trade for Mike Hoffman? Maybe we can trade for Jiri Hudler while we're at it

Edited May 12, 2015 by number9

[wings87 1,290]

Nvm.

Edited May 12, 2015 by wings87

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

We were 14th in 5-on-5 goal for/against ratio. That's not horrible.

If Franzen's back we'll have more scoring. If Pulkkinen and Jurco find their offensive games then we'll have more scoring. plus growth from Tats, Nyquist, Dekeyser and Sheahan. Weiss is still a wild card for me, though most have counted him out by now.

With a scared Howard and Mrazek in net, our goaltending should be better and 5-on-5 goals against goes down.

Boom improved 5-on-5

Then if we can sign a UFA upgrade on defense...

[Buppy 1,720]

The year before this Nyquist was 3rd in the league (though a little short of 750 minutes, so had to go to 500). Zetterberg was 14th. Tatar was 40th. Datsyuk was only 80th. With a similar roster we scored almost 20 more 5v5 goals last year, despite all the injuries. Tampa Bay, also with much the same roster was significantly worse last year. There is quite a bit of year to year variance.

Fact is, Hockey is a chaotic system. A lot of it defies easy explanation. There are probably 1000 different reasons why we struggled 5v5 this year. To even begin to try to explain you'd need an in depth analysis of nearly every minute of every game. But even that, being that we're talking about humans and not machines, the best you may come up with is: at what seems a bit of an inordinate rate, somebody zigged when we needed a zag. We are not a bad offensive team. That we were much better on the PP than we were 5v5 just looks like an anomaly. Chicago struggled to score this year too.

Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Nyquist, and Tatar are all good top 6 forwards. Abby, whatever some may think of him, performed like a good a top 6 forward this year. You'll find few teams with a 5/6 forward that's markedly better. Whether he can continue to do it I guess we'll have to wait and see. I don't see any reason to think we really need to replace him.

Franzen may not come back, and that would create a hole in the top 6. That's our only problem for now. We have some guys that might be able to step up, but none that inspire tons of confidence so adding someone might be the way to go. But I don't think anyone needed a bunch of stats and insinuations that all our forwards suck to realize that.

And we do not "need" to replace Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Kronwall in the next 3 years. That is ludicrously unrealistic. If we can find even 1 in the next 3 years and the other 2 within 3 years after they retire it would be remarkable.

[Echolalia 2,961]

I may be misremembering, but I think all around the Wings' stats were pretty solid until Howard got injured, and that's about the time things went South.

[Richdg 267]

The year before this Nyquist was 3rd in the league (though a little short of 750 minutes, so had to go to 500). Zetterberg was 14th. Tatar was 40th. Datsyuk was only 80th. With a similar roster we scored almost 20 more 5v5 goals last year, despite all the injuries. Tampa Bay, also with much the same roster was significantly worse last year. There is quite a bit of year to year variance.

Fact is, Hockey is a chaotic system. A lot of it defies easy explanation. There are probably 1000 different reasons why we struggled 5v5 this year. To even begin to try to explain you'd need an in depth analysis of nearly every minute of every game. But even that, being that we're talking about humans and not machines, the best you may come up with is: at what seems a bit of an inordinate rate, somebody zigged when we needed a zag. We are not a bad offensive team. That we were much better on the PP than we were 5v5 just looks like an anomaly. Chicago struggled to score this year too.

Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Nyquist, and Tatar are all good top 6 forwards. Abby, whatever some may think of him, performed like a good a top 6 forward this year. You'll find few teams with a 5/6 forward that's markedly better. Whether he can continue to do it I guess we'll have to wait and see. I don't see any reason to think we really need to replace him.

Franzen may not come back, and that would create a hole in the top 6. That's our only problem for now. We have some guys that might be able to step up, but none that inspire tons of confidence so adding someone might be the way to go. But I don't think anyone needed a bunch of stats and insinuations that all our forwards suck to realize that.

And we do not "need" to replace Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Kronwall in the next 3 years. That is ludicrously unrealistic. If we can find even 1 in the next 3 years and the other 2 within 3 years after they retire it would be remarkable.

Yes, there are no static stats. Things change every year. Age, injuries, defense performance all impact things. But you also every year look at what worked and what didn't. Trying to keep the former and fix the later. This is what every team in every sport does every year.

Now lets take the ranking and covert into some real numbers.

Datsyuk. For the past five seasons, 2011-15, here are his average points per 60 minutes played: 2.49, 2.35, 2.07, 1.94, 2.01. Thats about a 20% drop off over that 5 year span.

Z same years: 2.04, 2.52, 1.55, 2.45, 1.45. There is no real pattern with him. He is up and down and all over the place.

Abby same years: 1.42, 1.53, 1.13, 1.53, 1.58. 2013 was an odd year for him, but his is pretty consitant showing some slight improvement.

Tatar, only 3 seasons 13, 14, 15: 2.10, 2.14, 1.70. Still early in his career, but it seems like 2 points per 60 minutes is his norm.

Nyquist, only 4 seasons 12-15: 2.28, 1.03, 2.96, 1.44. Inconsistant to date. But matches Z's up and downs. Going from 1.5 points per 60 to 2.5 points per 60 from year to year.

Now if the past predicts the future, 2016 should be better 5 on 5. Z and Nyquist seem to have better years in the even number years.

As for replacements and the timeline, I bet I am not far off. Datsyuk has 2 years left and will be 39 at that point. Does he return? I would bet no. Z and Kronwall will both be 36/37 in 2 years, how much will they have left? Ericsson not far behind that. Again that is just replacing guys currently on the roster. A roster that can barely make into the PO's and loses in the 1st round. We haven't done anything to ADD talent and become a better team at this point. We think that the group of Marchenko, Oullett, and Sproul should produce 1 or 2 guys that might be able to replace Kornwall and Ericsson. Same at F. We hope that Mantha, Larkin, and AA can produce 2 players to replace Datsyuk and Z's production. But there are no sure things. Maybe all of those prospects make it, maybe none do. That is the great unkown. What isn't an unknown is we need an injection of talent. We need guys that will keep our PP and PK solid and improve our 5 on 5 play.