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Richdg

Time for an offer sheet?

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Yes, offer sheets to RFA's have become something taboo the past few years. Which makes no sense. maybe it is time for the RW's to be bold. There are several reasons for this train of thought. 1. The UFA market is garbage the past few years and looks to continue that way. 2. Trades are very expensive. 3. we are not drafting at a high enough position to get the truely premier talent very often-if ever.

Now this is just an example but follow me here. What is our biggest need? A RHed top pair Dman. The most premier position in the game. To trade for that type of player would cost us Nyquist, tatar, and Smith just to get the conversation started. Very expensive. But what about a RFA? we could offer a guy like Hamilton a 7 year 51.8 million contract and only have to give up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round draft picks. Chances are only one of those 3 picks will ever turn out anyway, it would take several years for those guys to make an impact, and we are only talking about an age difference of 3 years.

So what would we gain? we get a 6-5/215 Rhed Dman that is 21 years old. he joins Dekeyser as our top D pair for the next 10+ years. 10 years from now they are 33 and 31 respectively, so should have time left. 51.8 million over 7 years is a 7.4 million per year cap hit, so not out of line. we also weaken a division rival that is in cap hell and may not be able to match the offer.

as for the picks, not a big deal at all. we lose 3 guys that are 18 years old and have never played a pro hockey game, but gain a guy that is already becoming a star in the NHL. 5 years from now paying hamilton 7.4 million per year will be considered a huge bargain.

There is no down side here. The worst thing that can happen is the B's find a way to match the offer. That is it.

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Firstly, there isn't a single player available that would cost us Nyquist, Tatar, and Smith. Nobody traded in recent memory cost two 50+ point players, under the age of 25, who have flirted with 30 goals. None.

Secondly, if we offer sheeted anyone. Then they'd do it back. And we've got several important RFAs to sign this year. Do you want to inflate the prices on your own guys? We'd end up gaining nothing, and wasting money we don't really need to.

That's why most GMs don't offer sheet people. Not because they're "taboo".

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Couple things. Compensation goes by number of years or 5, whichever is lower. So that offer would be 4 first rounders. Second, you have to have your own picks to pay the compensation in your next draft year (or years in the case of multiple picks from the same round). Since we don't have a third in 2016, we can't make any offer that would include one.

The reason offer sheets are rare isn't because GMs are nice. It's because the RFA system very heavily favors the original team.

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Never understood why people don't understand this...

The RFA compensation system completely favours the team who initially drafted the player. In Dougie Hamilton's case (a player drafted 9th overall) seeking upwards of $7,000,000 annually - we would have to give up two 1st Round Picks, a 2nd and a 3rd Round Pick plus overpay him in the first place to prevent Boston from matching the offer.

Here is a look at the most recent players we drafted (with the same picks) that would be forfeited to acquire Dougie Hamilton:

2013 1st - Anthony Mantha

2014 1st - Dylan Larkin

2013 2nd - Tyler Bertuzzi

2014 3rd - Dominic Turgeon

The problem is that he's seeking $7,000,000 from Boston, meaning he probably wouldn't sign an offer sheet with Detroit unless it was for $8,000,000, but Boston would probably match up until $9,000,000 - see where I'm going? So you have the highest paid Defenseman in the NHL, and it now costs you four 1st Round Picks. Would anyone trade Mantha, Larkin, Sheahan and McCollum for Hamilton? Not me.

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Compensation

When a player accepts an offer sheet and his team declines to match the value of the contract, his former team is entitled to draft pick compensation in the next upcoming draft or drafts based on the averaged yearly salary of the contract. This averaged annual salary is determined by dividing the total compensation by the lesser of the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five years (the latter clause has potentially come into play with one offer sheet---offered to Shea Weber in the 2012 offseason). These values were originally set for the 2005 offseason to coincide with the new NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement, with percentage increases annually equal to the same percentage increase in the average salaries of all NHL players. The 2005 and 2015 offseason values are as follows:[1]

2005 Averaged Salary 2015-16 Averaged Salary Draft Pick Compensation $660,000 and below $1,205,377 and below No compensation $660,001 to $1,000,000 $1,205,377 to $1,826,328 Third-round pick $1,000,001 to $2,000,000 $1,826,328 to $3,652,659 Second-round pick $2,000,001 to $3,000,000 $3,652,659 to $5,478,986 First- and third-round pick $3,000,001 to $4,000,000 $5,478,986 to $7,305,316 First-, second-, and third-round pick $4,000,001 to $5,000,000 $7,305,316 to $9,131,645 Two first-round picks and a second- and third-round pick $5,000,001 and above $9,131,645 and above Four first-round picks

A team may not have two different players sign offer sheets at the same time if the value of the offered contracts would involve any of the same draft picks as compensation. For example, if a restricted free agent accepts a contract with a yearly salary of at least $8,410,977, the team can only offer to other restricted free agents contracts less than $3,364,392 per year, since those would not require any first round pick as compensation. In addition, if a team does not have a pick in the next upcoming draft available for compensation, they may not make a contract offer in the certain range where that pick is needed for compensation. Teams may not use draft picks acquired in trades with other teams, but extra acquired draft picks can influence a team's decision to submit an offer sheet.

Ok my math was off. Needs to be a 7.3 million per year cap hit. Then it is a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick. Even if we went higher and it cost us 2 1st, not a biggie.

Now and this is the more important part. It is a tactical move. As of today Boston has just under 4.9 million in cap space and only 16 players signed. That is only 700,000 left per roster spot to fill in their roster. In other words: rookies only. For them to resign hamilton they would be forced to trade/cut 2 other players. For example trade lucic and cut Chara. That would barely give them enough cap space to to resign hamilton. if they match-the most likely result, they would have to move 2 other key members of their team-thus making them a weaker team. Which of course is better for us. But their cap hell doesn't end this year. They have another round next year and no money again! LOL


Never understood why people don't understand this...

The RFA compensation system completely favours the team who initially drafted the player. In Dougie Hamilton's case (a player drafted 9th overall) seeking upwards of $7,000,000 annually - we would have to give up two 1st Round Picks, a 2nd and a 3rd Round Pick plus overpay him in the first place to prevent Boston from matching the offer.

Here is a look at the most recent players we drafted (with the same picks) that would be forfeited to acquire Dougie Hamilton:

2013 1st - Anthony Mantha

2014 1st - Dylan Larkin

2013 2nd - Tyler Bertuzzi

2014 3rd - Dominic Turgeon

The problem is that he's seeking $7,000,000 from Boston, meaning he probably wouldn't sign an offer sheet with Detroit unless it was for $8,000,000, but Boston would probably match up until $9,000,000 - see where I'm going? So you have the highest paid Defenseman in the NHL, and it now costs you four 1st Round Picks. Would anyone trade Mantha, Larkin, Sheahan and McCollum for Hamilton? Not me.

If we signed him to a contract with a 7.3 million cap hit, we owe a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. that is it, see the above post.

as for what we give up, you do realize you are talking about guys that are 18/19 and never have played a NHL game vs a 21 year old that is already becoming a star? I love mantha and larkin, but if I had the chance today to trade 1 of them, bert, and Turgeon for hamilton I would do it in a heartbeat! no questions asked. To get you have to give.

Edited by Richdg

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The offer sheet system is a catch-22. In order to get a player, you've got to overpay so much that a team isn't willing to match. But then you've got a player on your hands who's making dramatically more than they're worth. So you haven't helped yourself. Sure, you could get Hamilton. But you'd have to offer an obscene amount of money. And then you'd be stuck with it.

It's just not a smart move, which is why nobody does it (except dummies like Paul Holmgren and Keven Lowe...of course).

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Compensation

When a player accepts an offer sheet and his team declines to match the value of the contract, his former team is entitled to draft pick compensation in the next upcoming draft or drafts based on the averaged yearly salary of the contract. This averaged annual salary is determined by dividing the total compensation by the lesser of the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five years (the latter clause has potentially come into play with one offer sheet---offered to Shea Weber in the 2012 offseason). These values were originally set for the 2005 offseason to coincide with the new NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement, with percentage increases annually equal to the same percentage increase in the average salaries of all NHL players. The 2005 and 2015 offseason values are as follows:[1]

2005 Averaged Salary 2015-16 Averaged Salary Draft Pick Compensation $660,000 and below $1,205,377 and below No compensation $660,001 to $1,000,000 $1,205,377 to $1,826,328 Third-round pick $1,000,001 to $2,000,000 $1,826,328 to $3,652,659 Second-round pick $2,000,001 to $3,000,000 $3,652,659 to $5,478,986 First- and third-round pick $3,000,001 to $4,000,000 $5,478,986 to $7,305,316 First-, second-, and third-round pick $4,000,001 to $5,000,000 $7,305,316 to $9,131,645 Two first-round picks and a second- and third-round pick $5,000,001 and above $9,131,645 and above Four first-round picks

A team may not have two different players sign offer sheets at the same time if the value of the offered contracts would involve any of the same draft picks as compensation. For example, if a restricted free agent accepts a contract with a yearly salary of at least $8,410,977, the team can only offer to other restricted free agents contracts less than $3,364,392 per year, since those would not require any first round pick as compensation. In addition, if a team does not have a pick in the next upcoming draft available for compensation, they may not make a contract offer in the certain range where that pick is needed for compensation. Teams may not use draft picks acquired in trades with other teams, but extra acquired draft picks can influence a team's decision to submit an offer sheet.

Ok my math was off. Needs to be a 7.3 million per year cap hit. Then it is a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick. Even if we went higher and it cost us 2 1st, not a biggie.

Now and this is the more important part. It is a tactical move. As of today Boston has just under 4.9 million in cap space and only 16 players signed. That is only 700,000 left per roster spot to fill in their roster. In other words: rookies only. For them to resign hamilton they would be forced to trade/cut 2 other players. For example trade lucic and cut Chara. That would barely give them enough cap space to to resign hamilton. if they match-the most likely result, they would have to move 2 other key members of their team-thus making them a weaker team. Which of course is better for us. But their cap hell doesn't end this year. They have another round next year and no money again! LOL

If we signed him to a contract with a 7.3 million cap hit, we owe a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. that is it, see the above post.

as for what we give up, you do realize you are talking about guys that are 18/19 and never have played a NHL game vs a 21 year old that is already becoming a star? I love mantha and larkin, but if I had the chance today to trade 1 of them, bert, and Turgeon for hamilton I would do it in a heartbeat! no questions asked. To get you have to give.

With the expected cap increase and LTIR for Savard, they'll have about $10-11M in space. Tight but I still bet they'd match. Most of the spots they have to fill can be filled cheaply. Plus they could opt to move Lucic and/or Eriksson.

Moot point though, as we do not have our 3rd rounder in 2016. We'd have to trade for that pick back (not just any third, our own) before we could even submit an offer.

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I, for one, would like to see a little gamble like that. As long as a few things happen along the way. Let's say we signed him for the $7.3M, according to what is written above, we'd lose a 1st, 2nd, 3rd? Ok, the WIngs already have Tatar, Nyquist and Sheahan here for a long time to come (assuming they play their careers here) and they have higher end prospects like Larkin, Mantha, AA, Turgeon, Bertuzzi. They scored a big goal (pun intended) with landing Dekeyser, he would have been at least a 2nd round pick in the draft. What if the Wings were able to land this Reilly kid AND land Hyman when he becomes a FA. Even though Danny D was a few years ago, he still has a bright long future with us. So, IF they landed Reilly and Hyman, then also signed RFA Hamilton, I think we would not miss those 3 picks. But like Kip said up there, I'd hate for someone to offer sheet our RFA's, so we'd have to get our guys signed, land the two FA's and THEN offer a huge contract to Hamilton...a lot of perfect scenarios would have to happen, but like I said, we'd lose the 3 picks, but gain(ed) Dekeyser, Reilly, Hyman AND Hamilton...


...trade one of our extra guys for our 3rd rounder back....we have a lot of players worth a 3rd rounder...

Edited by LeftWinger

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Never understood why people don't understand this...

The RFA compensation system completely favours the team who initially drafted the player. In Dougie Hamilton's case (a player drafted 9th overall) seeking upwards of $7,000,000 annually - we would have to give up two 1st Round Picks, a 2nd and a 3rd Round Pick plus overpay him in the first place to prevent Boston from matching the offer.

Here is a look at the most recent players we drafted (with the same picks) that would be forfeited to acquire Dougie Hamilton:

Is Hamilton really worth $7M? Blows my mind an RFA is commanding this type of money. I knew he was good, but not *that* good.

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Is Hamilton really worth $7M? Blows my mind an RFA is commanding this type of money. I knew he was good, but not *that* good.

Petry just got 5.5 million per to resign. Hamilton is a much better player and younger than Petry. One is a 25 point per year RHed D and the other is a 40+ point per year RHed D. 6 years difference in age as well. No one is worth it, but that is the market.

With the expected cap increase and LTIR for Savard, they'll have about $10-11M in space. Tight but I still bet they'd match. Most of the spots they have to fill can be filled cheaply. Plus they could opt to move Lucic and/or Eriksson.

Moot point though, as we do not have our 3rd rounder in 2016. We'd have to trade for that pick back (not just any third, our own) before we could even submit an offer.

That is correct. Holland has 25 days to work out a deal with NJ to get our 2016 pick back. That is all it would take. A Tvrdon for the pick type of deal should make it happen.

But lets dream for a minute.....

dekeyser-hamilton

Kronwall-Ericsson

Oullett-marchenko

Lashoff

That is a very good BL corp and we would still have more BL prospects coming and all of our best F prospects. Not to mention about 10 million more in cap space after trading KFQ.

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Petry just got 5.5 million per to resign. Hamilton is a much better player and younger than Petry. One is a 25 point per year RHed D and the other is a 40+ point per year RHed D. 6 years difference in age as well. No one is worth it, but that is the market.

That is correct. Holland has 25 days to work out a deal with NJ to get our 2016 pick back. That is all it would take. A Tvrdon for the pick type of deal should make it happen.

But lets dream for a minute.....

dekeyser-hamilton

Kronwall-Ericsson

Oullett-marchenko

Lashoff

That is a very good BL corp and we would still have more BL prospects coming and all of our best F prospects. Not to mention about 10 million more in cap space after trading KFQ.

I agree, he probably is worth that money, which is why Boston would match. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they matched anything under top-level compensation, maybe even a bit over.

I'm not so secure in the direction of the team (even with Hamilton) that I'd be too happy giving up 2 firsts for the right to over-pay him, sure as hell wouldn't give up 4.

And I bet it would take more than a random piece of garbage to get our 3rd back. Someone that genuinely looks to be an NHL player. Otherwise there's no reason for NJ to do it, especially since we'd be asking specifically for our pick and thus cluing them in that they are the one and only supplier of what we want.

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SoaW has it right. UFAs and RFAs are not the same thing. The thing to remember is that even though an offer sheet can be made to the player, the team that has a player under the restricted tag of free agency has ultimate bargaining power. Just because Hamilton's agents think he's worth 7 million doesn't mean Boston is going to make him a 7 million dollar man-child.

If Boston doesn't offer Hamilton 7 million and no team is willing to offer-sheet him...

7 million is just a dream number in some agents head... and lets be honest they're not going to offer him anywhere NEAR 7 million.

Subban didn't get a big pay day in his first RFA years... didn't get an offer sheet.

Hamilton is going to be exactly the same.

Offer sheets get brought up EVERY year and EVERY year they don't happen. They're too risky.

GMs can't afford to lose draft picks, most can't afford to offer big cap numbers to ensure a player will accept an offer sheet, and they can't afford to back another GM into cap hell without losing the ability to negotiate/trade with them at a later date or without the possibility of getting screwed over themselves with a retaliatory offer-sheet.

After all this offer-sheet talk is said and done, in the end, Hamilton will get a 2 or 3 year bridge deal, at $3.5-4 million. Watch it happen.

Edited by e_prime

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Starting to change tune on the Hamilton idea...

If 8,250,000 gets it done - and we sacrifice two 1st round picks, a 2nd and a 3rd... Why wouldn't we do it?

If everything goes according to plan, we would be giving away 2 draft picks in the 25-30 range, 1 pick in the 55-60 range, and 1 pick in the 85-90 range. Considering that the projections for upcoming draft classes aren't spectacular, and that we typically (1) Draft as well from the later rounds as we do from the 20-30 range, and/or (2) trade down from the late first round for multiple second round picks anyway - what are we really sacrificing?

Hamilton will almost certainly be better than any draft pick (coming out of the 25-30 range) in the next 2 draft classes. So now you have a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to replace. We already have an abundance of 2nd and 3rd round draft pick talent playing in Grand Rapids, and we can probably draft 4th round picks as well 3rd round picks, so I'm not concerned about them. The extra 1st round pick? Its worth it.

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Thank god. I don't think I could seriously cheer for something called "Dougie".

Is that a dance that the kids were doing a few years back? I think someone tried to teach me... I didn't get it.

#Dadjoke

Edited by e_prime

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Is that a dance that the kids were doing a few years back? I think someone tried to teach me... I didn't get it.

#Dadjoke

Kips being sarcastic. He loves those lil Wayne songs.

Hamilton isn't going anywhere thou

Edited by number9

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