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mattg214856

Who Do You Think Will Lead the Wings In Scoring

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Didn't exactly do anything. I meant normalize in the general sense, meaning try to adjust the numbers to account for whatever you think is skewing them rather than just throwing them out altogether.

For example, you say the attention paid to him last year was lax, (though you don't have any evidence of that, other than that it sorta seems like it would be a thing...) but I'm sure you're not suggesting that no one played any kind of defense at all against him. So how much do you think his numbers were inflated that year? 20%, 40%, 50%? It's already a small data set, no need to make it smaller by ignoring a big part of it.

What you're doing is confirmation bias. Trying to interpret the data in a way that supports your conclusion.

The actual data is this:

Year 1: 57gp, 22evg, 6ppg, 78% at ES

Year 2: 82gp, 13evg, 14ppg, 48% at ES

First year was far more effective at ES than the second, but also much less effective on the PP. The most likely explanation is simple year to year variance that we see all the time, with the truth somewhere around the middle. That middle suggests that he's pretty normal in terms of scoring distribution. Likely to stay close to normal even if you adjust the 1st year numbers.

Right. The problem with trying to interpret Nyquist's production up to this point is that both years diverge pretty sharply from the norm. So trying to interpret them individually, or sticking them together, is a dangerous game.

That first year is about as unorthodox as it gets. I'd be VERY surprised if Nyquist ever did anything like it again. 78% even strength goal scoring with a shooting percentage of 18% suggests anything but "normal".

However, you're probably right that his power play numbers from a year ago are outliers as well. At least based on his career up to this point (in GR about 30-40% of his goals came on the PP).

It's not really easy to pigeonhole him right now because both of his years have been wonky (in totally different ways). So I think it would be wrong to conclude (as I, and others, have) that he's destined to be a PP specialist. But I don't think it's crazy to hypothesize such a thing, and see what the numbers say going forward.

Edited by kipwinger

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To be clear I'm not saying Nyquist is destined to be a PP specialist. I'm not making any predictions of his future whatsoever. I'm arguing from the position that what Nyquist has done up to this point in his NHL career with regard to power play goals scored relative to overall goals is not standard, as evidenced above. Maybe he evens out this year, maybe he doesn't. But that's not relevant to the conversation, at least from my perspective.

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Here's a better question: How many 20+ goal scorers?? I think we will have 7

I say 3, maybe 4. Tatar, Nyquist, and Zetterberg. Franzen has a shot if he can stay healthy.

We should have a number of guys around 15: Datsyuk, Abdelkader, Richards, Sheahan, Pulkkinen, Green, and Kronwall. Maybe Helm, if he can stay healthy.

Edit: I forgot Pulkkinen

Edited by Barrie

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