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rick zombo

Jurco on Conditioning Assignment in GRs

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Buppy, I'm not making excuses. I'm just calling it as I see it. I have to ask though, where are you getting your information from? There's not much correlation between what you're saying and what I'm seeing. Not saying your information isn't correct but it's not at all what I'm getting. Maybe my information is off...

Also, are you using a total ice time for all three seasons? Because he only played 725 minutes last season and your numbers aren't adding up. If you are totaling all three seasons that's not accurate to what I'm arguing at all. My point is, he played with good linemates in his rookie season, but didn't nearly as much in year two, which is what I illustrated in my previous post.

By the way, he has been just as "moderately productive" as any of those 4th liners despite not being that type of player / comfortable in that type of role.

Jurco always seems to be the first to get demoted or scratched despite hardly ever being close to the worst player on any given night. I'm assuming it's because he's the kid. It's easier to sit the kid than one of the veterans...

Those people that would argue that the quality in the CHL is as good or better than the NCAA... would be wrong. College hockey is a much more structured game than that of the run and gun style in the CHL, in particular the QMJHL (which is where Jurco played).

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Many people would probably argue that the quality in the CHL is as good or better than the NCAA. Maybe SM Liiga too, but most people probably don't know much about that league. Plenty of players around the league go from juniors to the NHL with less than two years in the AHL. It's not unusual, even for the Wings. It's also not unusual for young guys to struggle at first. Again, excuses aren't necessary.

I don't see it as an excuse, I'm giving my view why he's in his current situation. It is unusual for the wings to have a player go from the CHL to the NHL without doing 3 years in the AHL. Look at all these examples of other players from the Red WIngs systems from the CHL:

Mrazek: did almost his full 3 years in the AHL

Quincey: did the full 3 years in the AHL

Kindl: did full 3 years in the AHL

Emmerton: did 3 years+ in the AHL

Mursak: did 3 years in the AHL (though he only made the NHL briefly)

For older perspective, I looked up some older names:

Avery: played parts of 3 years AHL (109 gp)

Jason WIlliams: 3 seasons (173 gp)

It does seem to be the normal path or treatment for Red Wings prospects coming from the CHL especially in the past 20 years. Who have we had that makes the jump without doing the time? Helm and Jurco are 2 exceptions that I can think of recently. I had to go back to Jiri Fischer in 99-00 to find someone else (Jiri only played 25 AHL games over 2 seasons, but he was a 1st rounder). Jurco did 1 and a half years in the AHL. that is less than normal.

But I'm not set on making each prospect do this amount of time as a sort of prerequisite. If AA or Mantha look ready and excel in their call ups earlier, than let them have a spot. I disagree with the treatment of Jurco specifically because he was struggling in the 2nd quarter last season when he could have been sent down to the AHL. Babcock (he made it clear in an interview that he pushed for it) kept him up and played him sporadically between the 4th line and being scratched when I believe he was better served playing big, top line minutes in the AHL.

Anyway, I believe it was a mistake, but not one that he can't overcome. At this point, I'm all good with putting him on the 4th line and having him work his way up a la Abby. If he plays well, he'll get his chances on the 3rd line or elsewhere.

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I don't see it as an excuse, I'm giving my view why he's in his current situation. It is unusual for the wings to have a player go from the CHL to the NHL without doing 3 years in the AHL. Look at all these examples of other players from the Red WIngs systems from the CHL:

I completely agree with this, I hate it when people say not to make excuses. When someone is struggling in any walk of life and you need them to get better, all you can do is assess the situation, evaluate why they are failing, and then based on that evaluation make the necessary changes. Just saying "Do it" or "Fix It" or "Work Harder" is not really a remedy unless the problem is as simply as laziness.

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Um, that's exactly the kind of thing advanced stats can tell you. How players impact the game beyond the typical stats. Except instead of relying on imperfect perception and faulty memory, they rely on actually recording events.

See that's a whole different approach than stating that people are only allowed to discuss stuff if they educate themselves with this movement. I mean I've said it before I appreciate the talent some of these guys but the way they come off is very arrogant and almost Sheldon Cooper like just not as funny. For me personally watching the game and seeing who had a good game and who didn't is enough and let's be honest nobody will ever be able to understand a coaching decision because there is so much more going into it..like training sessions chemistry ...

Sad thing is Wings could have had Biggs instead of Jurco if Anaheim didn't trade with Toronto. Not that he is anything special either but at least he would have been a big 4 line guy with some third line upside.

Edited by frankgrimes

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See that's a whole different approach than stating that people are only allowed to discuss stuff if they educate themselves with this movement. I mean I've said it before I appreciate the talent some of these guys but the way they come off is very arrogant and almost Sheldon Cooper like just not as funny. For me personally watching the game and seeing who had a good game and who didn't is enough and let's be honest nobody will ever be able to understand a coaching decision because there is so much more going into it..like training sessions chemistry ...

Sad thing is Wings could have had Biggs instead of Jurco if Anaheim didn't trade with Toronto. Not that he is anything special either but at least he would have been a big 4 line guy with some third line upside.

Seriously? You constantly call anyone who mentions advanced stats math freaks who watch the game through an excel sheet, and you want people to be nice and explain things better to you? How bout you be nice and make an attempt to understand the advanced stats and ask for help instead of criticizing everything you don't understand like a 5 year old.

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Great post PVD. That's precisely how I feel about the whole situation as well. Jurco was mishandled in that he was struggling to stay in the lineup in his sophomore season, and still being waiver exempt, he should have been sent down, but he wasn't. How anyone thinks that he was better served as a 12th/13th forward for the Wings rather than a top line forward for the Griffins is beyond me... But like you said, just because he was mishandled and has struggled to crack the lineup, doesn't mean he can't / won't overcome that. He definitely will, he's still very young.

At the very least, Jurco will be a very good 3rd line guy, though I still believe he has top line potential at the NHL level. But whether Jurco develops into that top line power-forward that we all want him to become, or he turns out to be that 3rd line forward that some seem to think he'll become, that's up to him, and he will get paid accordingly. There is one fact though, Jurco is much more valuable to the Red Wings going forward than he would be in a trade today. So people saying we should trade him or even worse, waive him :rolleyes: it's not going to happen, nor should it...

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Frank, you would seriously rather Tyler Biggs over Tomas Jurco? Seriously? Jurco is 10 times better than Biggs could ever dream to be... At least we would have a 4th line player with some 3rd line upside? You're right, we don't have that with Jurco, instead we have a 3rd line player with 1st/2nd line upside... Big? They're virtually the exact same size? Biggs - 6'2", 205 lbs. Jurco - 6'1", 203 lbs. Is it that you believe that extra inch and 2 lbs. really makes the difference, or is it just that you would rather the rough and tough North American kid over the skilled, soft Euro kid?...

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Frank, you would seriously rather Tyler Biggs over Tomas Jurco? Seriously? Jurco is 10 times better than Biggs could ever dream to be... At least we would have a 4th line player with some 3rd line upside? You're right, we don't have that with Jurco, instead we have a 3rd line player with 1st/2nd line upside... Big? They're virtually the exact same size? Biggs - 6'2", 205 lbs. Jurco - 6'1", 203 lbs. Is it that you believe that extra inch and 2 lbs. really makes the difference, or is it just that you would rather the rough and tough North American kid over the skilled, soft Euro kid?...

...but he can SEE his worth, kr. No advanced algebra or calculus necessary to show value.

God forbid the day where EVERY FAN can't "understand a coaching decision because there is so much more going into it..like training sessions chemistry..."

BAZINGA!

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Seriously? You constantly call anyone who mentions advanced stats math freaks who watch the game through an excel sheet, and you want people to be nice and explain things better to you? How bout you be nice and make an attempt to understand the advanced stats and ask for help instead of criticizing everything you don't understand like a 5 year old.

Since reading seems a bit too hard, I rewrite it in bold: I don't care about that stuff if you do fine, create a topic dedicated to it with tons of heat-maps, pagelong correlations or whatever. How about be nice and understand that others aren't interested. Hockey existed before advanced stats and it will exist after them.

Frank, you would seriously rather Tyler Biggs over Tomas Jurco? Seriously? Jurco is 10 times better than Biggs could ever dream to be... At least we would have a 4th line player with some 3rd line upside? You're right, we don't have that with Jurco, instead we have a 3rd line player with 1st/2nd line upside... Big? They're virtually the exact same size? Biggs - 6'2", 205 lbs. Jurco - 6'1", 203 lbs. Is it that you believe that extra inch and 2 lbs. really makes the difference, or is it just that you would rather the rough and tough North American kid over the skilled, soft Euro kid?...

Given the need for a grittier 4 line player, yes. I've stated Biggs is nothing special but he is a 4 liner with some 3 line updside. This has nothing to do with NA vs Euro kid because I think neither the Wings nor the Penguins are so far happy with either player. If Jurco puts it together and get his work-ethic going (I've mentioned it) it would be a win-win situation for all sides involved but that's a big if obviously the guy has talent.I just don't see whats so bad about sending a kid down, to work on things because the coaching stuff and management has seen some flaws? Heck the former mentioned Biggs had to go to the ECHL for a stint to get his act together. If Jurco turns out to become the player you hope he could be I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong.

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Since reading seems a bit too hard, I rewrite it in bold: I don't care about that stuff if you do fine, create a topic dedicated to it with tons of heat-maps, pagelong correlations or whatever. How about be nice and understand that others aren't interested. Hockey existed before advanced stats and it will exist after them.

Given the need for a grittier 4 line player, yes. I've stated Biggs is nothing special but he is a 4 liner with some 3 line updside. This has nothing to do with NA vs Euro kid because I think neither the Wings nor the Penguins are so far happy with either player. If Jurco puts it together and get his work-ethic going (I've mentioned it) it would be a win-win situation for all sides involved but that's a big if obviously the guy has talent.I just don't see whats so bad about sending a kid down, to work on things because the coaching stuff and management has seen some flaws? Heck the former mentioned Biggs had to go to the ECHL for a stint to get his act together. If Jurco turns out to become the player you hope he could be I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong.

You're asking me to be nice? How bout you stop calling people math freaks. Then maybe I'll give you a sparse amount of respect

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Since reading seems a bit too hard, I rewrite it in bold: I don't care about that stuff if you do fine, create a topic dedicated to it with tons of heat-maps, pagelong correlations or whatever. How about be nice and understand that others aren't interested. Hockey existed before advanced stats and it will exist after them.

Given the need for a grittier 4 line player, yes. I've stated Biggs is nothing special but he is a 4 liner with some 3 line updside. This has nothing to do with NA vs Euro kid because I think neither the Wings nor the Penguins are so far happy with either player. If Jurco puts it together and get his work-ethic going (I've mentioned it) it would be a win-win situation for all sides involved but that's a big if obviously the guy has talent.I just don't see whats so bad about sending a kid down, to work on things because the coaching stuff and management has seen some flaws? Heck the former mentioned Biggs had to go to the ECHL for a stint to get his act together. If Jurco turns out to become the player you hope he could be I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong.

What is your stance on Babcock and advanced stats Frank? He is very high on this. Is he the best coach in the world no questions asked? Or is he a Math Freak? I dont see how you can have this both ways. I dont see how someone can be the best in the world at something if their approach is stupid has and no validity.

Here is what he had to say: "Not only is it a great idea, but if you don't [start using analytics] you're going to fall behind,"

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=727093

Edited by kliq

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Frank, 4th line grinders are a dime a dozen, especially those that have yet to skate a single minute in an NHL game...

People really need to stop with this "work-ethic" bulls*** on Jurco. There is absolutely nothing that would indicate that he isn't willing to work hard. Blashill said he needs to be able to skate harder? Key word there is "able". I'm sure he is more than willing to put in the work, but his back really hasn't allowed him to work-out or play to his full potential this season, as well as the latter half of last season. Let's hope his back is healing and he can put all this behind him. The issues he's been having with his back, that is why he's struggled to get into games, that is why he was sent down on a conditioning stint, not because he has a "poor work ethic"... You cannot send a waiver eligible player down on a conditioning stint, to "get it together and get his work ethic going" or to work on "some flaws"...

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What is your stance on Babcock and advanced stats Frank? He is very high on this. Is he the best coach in the world no questions asked? Or is he a Math Freak? I dont see how you can have this both ways. I dont see how someone can be the best in the world at something if their approach is stupid has and no validity.

Here is what he had to say: "Not only is it a great idea, but if you don't [start using analytics] you're going to fall behind,"

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=727093

If that's his opinion fine, doesn't mean I have to share it nor does it change my believe that he is the best coach in hockey. If I would rank coaches, management only by their stance on that new movement - and yes it's extremely new - I would have to say Burke is the best GM in hockey and Wilson probably the best coach, which is clearly not the case.

Frank, 4th line grinders are a dime a dozen, especially those that have yet to skate a single minute in an NHL game...

People really need to stop with this "work-ethic" bulls*** on Jurco. There is absolutely nothing that would indicate that he isn't willing to work hard. Blashill said he needs to be able to skate harder? Key word there is "able". I'm sure he is more than willing to put in the work, but his back really hasn't allowed him to work-out or play to his full potential this season, as well as the latter half of last season. Let's hope his back is healing and he can put all this behind him. The issues he's been having with his back, that is why he's struggled to get into games, that is why he was sent down on a conditioning stint, not because he has a "poor work ethic"... You cannot send a waiver eligible player down on a conditioning stint, to "get it together and get his work ethic going" or to work on "some flaws"...

Yes they are but teams still need them right?

If your assumption is true and the line of "being able to skate harder" is a reference to his back than I'll gladly the take the work-ethic assumption back and hope that you are right and we'll see a fully healthy Jurco soon.

Edited by frankgrimes

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If that's his opinion fine, doesn't mean I have to share it nor does it change my believe that he is the best coach in hockey. If I would rank coaches, management only by their stance on that new movement - and yes it's extremely new - I would have to say Burke is the best GM in hockey and Wilson probably the best coach, which is clearly not the case.

That's not what I am saying at all, I never said that coaches should be ranked based on their stance on advanced stats as of course that would be dumb. What I am saying is that you put Babcock on a pedestal and every chance you get say he is the greatest coach in all of hockey, but if Babcock is using a method in his coaching that you think is a fad and useless, there is a major contradiction there.

Advanced stats are a part of what he does, he bases his coaching methods that you speak so low of on these advanced stats. So either these advanced stats have some validity to them, or Babcock is going down a path that he shouldn't and maybe isn't the best in the world by a mile. I just don't understand how someone can be the best in your opinion if you think their methods are wrong.

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That's not what I am saying at all, I never said that coaches should be ranked based on their stance on advanced stats as of course that would be dumb. What I am saying is that you put Babcock on a pedestal and every chance you get say he is the greatest coach in all of hockey, but if Babcock is using a method in his coaching that you think is a fad and useless, there is a major contradiction there.

Advanced stats are a part of what he does, he bases his coaching methods that you speak so low of on these advanced stats. So either these advanced stats have some validity to them, or Babcock is going down a path that he shouldn't and maybe isn't the best in the world by a mile. I just don't understand how someone can be the best in your opinion if you think their methods are wrong.

Well I also thought Jobs was the best presenter in the IT world and still didn't buy any of his products because they're too limited and internet-focused for the stuff I need to do. Same with Babcock just because I think he is the best one in the game doesn't mean I have to agree with everything, right? I'm not interested in this new movement, according to that quote he is extremely interested fine but that doesn't change anything for me. I mean if you think someone is the best at something does it mean you have to agree with everything? I highly doubt that.

Part of what he did was impressive enough for me and to be honest I had no clue if he was pro- or anti this new movement. I also don't agree with him being much more PR involved since joining the Leafs which still doesn't take away from the fact, that I - and the team Canada braintrust seems to agree - think that he is the best coach in hockey.

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The one thing I hope happens is a trade. We have plenty of F's that are or close to being NHL ready. Can't keep them all. Make moves to bring in the things we don't have like a crease clearing Dman or a crease plugging F. Better yet, 1 of each!

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Buppy, I'm not making excuses. I'm just calling it as I see it. I have to ask though, where are you getting your information from? There's not much correlation between what you're saying and what I'm seeing. Not saying your information isn't correct but it's not at all what I'm getting. Maybe my information is off...

Also, are you using a total ice time for all three seasons? Because he only played 725 minutes last season and your numbers aren't adding up. If you are totaling all three seasons that's not accurate to what I'm arguing at all. My point is, he played with good linemates in his rookie season, but didn't nearly as much in year two, which is what I illustrated in my previous post.

By the way, he has been just as "moderately productive" as any of those 4th liners despite not being that type of player / comfortable in that type of role.

Jurco always seems to be the first to get demoted or scratched despite hardly ever being close to the worst player on any given night. I'm assuming it's because he's the kid. It's easier to sit the kid than one of the veterans...

Those people that would argue that the quality in the CHL is as good or better than the NCAA... would be wrong. College hockey is a much more structured game than that of the run and gun style in the CHL, in particular the QMJHL (which is where Jurco played).

My data was pulled from war-on-ice game summaries. From last season only and includes playoffs. Generally have two forwards with him at a time which is why his linemate's total time is about double. Works out to roughly 700 minutes of 5v5 time. I didn't pull the breakdowns for his linemates during his PP time, but I think we can safely assume that almost all of that would count as a scoring role. All-in-all it accounts for about 771 of the 785 total minutes he played last year. I don't remember your numbers off the top of my head, but I think they were somewhat close to mine. 32% with Sheahan, 30 with Miller, 27 with Glendening, 23 with Tatar...

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