Fixing this mess....

[Buppy 1,720]

...

All of this is to say, I think our head coach and/or general manager has/have to come to understand and appreciate what many fans already know: Joakim Andersson and Jonathan Ericsson are not The Answer. Limiting Athanasiou to five minutes of ice time in big games is profoundly foolish, especially with Datsyuk leaving in the summer and an enormous void opening up at the top of our depth chart. The priority this season and next season has to be transitioning to a younger core, not trying to squeeze one.more.playoff.berth. out of our veterans' butts.

By all means, try to land a Martin Hanzal, someone who can play against the opposition's best players, allowing Larkin and Athanasiou to develop their game against weaker matchups. But don't cage creativity. Don't stifle scoring ability. Don't preach defense for the sake of "learning how to defend real well." I don't even want our defensemen worrying about defending. I want a precise, relentless quick-strike transition game. I want the game to be played on the opposition's half of the ice, because we always have the puck and we're always forcing the other team to play without the puck and "defend real well."

Suggested Reading

1. Darryl Sutter:

2. Dave Tippett:

3. Ken Hitchcock and the Non-Stop Blues

4. Ken Hitchcock's Reliance on Rookies Is Paying Off

We have been transitioning. Half our team has played 3 or fewer full seasons. Playing Mantha or giving AA more minutes isn't going to make a difference in anything. Whatever the kids become will be determined by their physical abilities, their talent, the years of dedication, training, and hard work they've done and will continue to do going forward. Not by a few minutes with Datsyuk.

In regards to the second part, it's important to realize that the variances in possession are not really that much. It would probably surprise most people to learn that in 5v5 CF%, Detroit was tied for 8th in the league this year. 51.7%. Pittsburgh was 2nd at 52.7%. LA was first with one of the best seasons recorded at 56.4%. While Sutter and others may make hyperbolic statements about always defending or always having the puck, those are extremes that just don't exist in the real world. They're just exaggerations to make a point.

Also worth noting that Sutter's and Hitchcock's teams, despite being very good teams with loads of talent, don't really score very well. (Neither have Tippett's, but he hasn't had much talent either.) Not sure you can say "listen to these guys" and "don't stifle scoring ability" at the same time.

...

The piece of Tippet on D-Men perfectly applies to the Wings and Smith vs Ericsson, just to mention. But hey, let's keep sitting Smith because we signed him to the cheaper deal... *sigh*

...

Adding on to what I was saying above, that Tippett quote is a gross exaggeration. The variance between players isn't that extreme. This season, there is a pretty extreme (relatively speaking) difference between Smith and Ericsson (7.5% by Corsi or 8.3% by shots) that's 2-3 times the difference it's been in the past. Adjusted for zone starts and competition, the difference this year would probably drop to around 5.5-6%, and virtually nothing in past years. Also, by goals the difference is about 1.8% this year, and 1% historically. Again if adjusted it would be even closer.

Maybe Smith has progressed enough this year that he deserves to be ahead of E on the depth chart, but it's not nearly as cut and dry as people think.

That is before we resign any RFA's. Mrazek will get 3, Dekeyser will get 5-6, Sheahan around 2. Now if I raad this right Franzen hasn't been removed from their numbers. I did the mnath last week and figured we would ahve about 15 million under the cap after the RFA's are resigned, Franzen to LTIR, and some guys are moved out in trade. But its not enough to improve the team AND replace Datsyuk. Holland has to trade the contract-which he has said he will not do.

Technically, Mitch Albom said that Datsyuk's agent said that "the Wings" said they wouldn't do that. But regardless, let's be realistic. If Datsyuk leaves, the chances of actually improving drop to more or less zero, regardless of how much cap we have available. There just aren't enough good players available.

The only way we're better next year is if we sign Stamkos or if the kids take a huge leap forward. We can go after Stamkos whether we dump Datsyuk first or not, so that's irrelevant. We'd likely have to trade his hit if we did land Stamkos (or at least that might be the easiest), but not to make him an offer. To be honest, I'm not even sure that Stamkos would be worth going after for what he'd likely cost.

If we don't sign Stamkos, there isn't much sense in going after any second-tier players who have already proven to be incapable of leading a team to a Cup (or even in many cases, to the playoffs). Ride it out with the kids, see where we're at, then maybe make moves at the deadline if the they look good enough to build around.

[Richdg 267]

We have been transitioning. Half our team has played 3 or fewer full seasons. Playing Mantha or giving AA more minutes isn't going to make a difference in anything. Whatever the kids become will be determined by their physical abilities, their talent, the years of dedication, training, and hard work they've done and will continue to do going forward. Not by a few minutes with Datsyuk.

In regards to the second part, it's important to realize that the variances in possession are not really that much. It would probably surprise most people to learn that in 5v5 CF%, Detroit was tied for 8th in the league this year. 51.7%. Pittsburgh was 2nd at 52.7%. LA was first with one of the best seasons recorded at 56.4%. While Sutter and others may make hyperbolic statements about always defending or always having the puck, those are extremes that just don't exist in the real world. They're just exaggerations to make a point.

Also worth noting that Sutter's and Hitchcock's teams, despite being very good teams with loads of talent, don't really score very well. (Neither have Tippett's, but he hasn't had much talent either.) Not sure you can say "listen to these guys" and "don't stifle scoring ability" at the same time.

Adding on to what I was saying above, that Tippett quote is a gross exaggeration. The variance between players isn't that extreme. This season, there is a pretty extreme (relatively speaking) difference between Smith and Ericsson (7.5% by Corsi or 8.3% by shots) that's 2-3 times the difference it's been in the past. Adjusted for zone starts and competition, the difference this year would probably drop to around 5.5-6%, and virtually nothing in past years. Also, by goals the difference is about 1.8% this year, and 1% historically. Again if adjusted it would be even closer.

Maybe Smith has progressed enough this year that he deserves to be ahead of E on the depth chart, but it's not nearly as cut and dry as people think.

Technically, Mitch Albom said that Datsyuk's agent said that "the Wings" said they wouldn't do that. But regardless, let's be realistic. If Datsyuk leaves, the chances of actually improving drop to more or less zero, regardless of how much cap we have available. There just aren't enough good players available.

The only way we're better next year is if we sign Stamkos or if the kids take a huge leap forward. We can go after Stamkos whether we dump Datsyuk first or not, so that's irrelevant. We'd likely have to trade his hit if we did land Stamkos (or at least that might be the easiest), but not to make him an offer. To be honest, I'm not even sure that Stamkos would be worth going after for what he'd likely cost.

If we don't sign Stamkos, there isn't much sense in going after any second-tier players who have already proven to be incapable of leading a team to a Cup (or even in many cases, to the playoffs). Ride it out with the kids, see where we're at, then maybe make moves at the deadline if the they look good enough to build around.

A page back that is what I said. Now that datsyuk is going, sit on our cash and cap and go young. Let the young players come up and prove what they are-good or bad. Then next summer and beyond add as needed.

[Richdg 267]

Now If we are going to go into the UFA market this summer a guy that really moves up the list of targets is a fav of mine and that is Backes. He is a big RH C/RW that could step in and help with scoring, physical play and leadership. That would give us 3 good solid vets that we could spread throughout the top 3 lines with him, Z, and Abby. Something along these lines:

Z-Larkin-Mantha

Nyquist-Backes-Tatar

Jurco-AA-Abby

Helm-Sheahan-Glendening

pick a young F as the 13th

That isn't the worst F group. Leadership on each line, some size on each line, and multiple guys that could score 20 goals. The BL is however still a mess and needs some serious help. If we want to add more toughness then don't resign Helm and go after Martin instead. Would be cheaper and allow more Cap to be available to upgrade the BL.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

If Holland doesn't trade that contract PLUS gives DD $5.5M, he really needs to be fired!

If he gives Dekeyser that much, I'll camp on his lawn with a Fire Holland sign

[Dabura 12,207]

We have been transitioning.

Nowhere in my post do I claim that we haven't been transitioning.

Playing Mantha or giving AA more minutes isn't going to make a difference in anything.

what

Whatever the kids become will be determined by their physical abilities, their talent, the years of dedication, training, and hard work they've done and will continue to do going forward. Not by a few minutes with Datsyuk.

Cool straw man, bro!

(I'm beginning to remember why I'd taken a break from posting here...)

[VM1138 1,921]

I don't think you guys remember inflation. 5.5 is reasonable for someone like Danny D. He was our best defender most of the season.

[LeftWinger 4,953]

I miss the time when you actually earned a contract...

[The Datsyukian Deke 127]

You still have to, unless you're on a team where your GM screwed up the whole balance of the contracts by massively overpaying bad players...

[Richdg 267]

I don't get some of you guys dislike for Dekeyser. He is a legit 50 Dman in the NHL and by far the best we have. Is he a #1? No. But he is a #2. #2 Dmen make 6-7 million per year. You don't have to like that but that is the market rate and what he will get paid. We need to lock him up for the next 8 years and be happy we have him. Then go get him some help because this year he was largely doing it all by himself.

[VM1138 1,921]

I think 7 million is steep but you make a good point nonetheless. Just because one of us would sit here and say "I wouldn't pay X amount for that guy" doesn't mean that's not his value. I wouldn't spend $700 on a new iPhone but if I want to buy one outright I have to pay that price. And if I have a job where I need an iPhone (for whatever reason) I have to pay it.

[The Datsyukian Deke 127]

I personally don't dislike Danny, I'm a fan and we cannot be happy enough for stealing the guy...without him our D would be an absolute mess right now..

I dislike the fact that Kenny overpaid E, which pushes him into overpaying everyone else to have some sort of balance. If you pay E 2.0-2.5 (or nothing, at best..), then you can maybe get Q to sign for 4.0.-4.5 and Danny for 5.0-5.5, if you negotiate well. When you overpay the bottom guy, you cannot negotiate at all with the upper guys, because their agents know their craft...and that's what pisses me off every time I open our roster at capfriendly.com...

Edited April 12, 2016 by The Datsyukian Deke

[krsmith17 7,191]

I've never heard a single person ever say they "dislike" DeKeyser. I do agree that he is / will be a legit #2 defenseman, but I don't think he gets close to 6-7M for 8 years on this contract. He's an RFA and if there's one thing Kenny has proven he is very good at, it's re-signing his RFA's to very reasonable cap friendly contracts. If we're able to bridge him, we should absolutely go that route.

The chances of DeKeyser regressing to a very solid 2nd pair guy is much more likely than him becoming a bonifide number one in my opinion. Not saying he will regress, I expect him to fall in between as a very good number two, but if we can get another few years out of him on a cheaper contract, why wouldn't we? I say we sign him to a similar contract that Nyquist just signed, which would lead him into UFA status, then we re-evaluate and re-sign him before that deals up in a few years from now...

[frankgrimes 1,836]

Danny D. has been the Wings defender this and last year, if the Wings aren't going to pay him someone else will pretty simple

[krsmith17 7,191]

Frank, you really think someone will offersheet DeKeyser? Not going to happen.

[Richdg 267]

I personally don't dislike Danny, I'm a fan and we cannot be happy enough for stealing the guy...without him our D would be an absolute mess right now..

I dislike the fact that Kenny overpaid E, which pushes him into overpaying everyone else to have some sort of balance. If you pay E 2.0-2.5 (or nothing, at best..), then you can maybe get Q to sign for 4.0.-4.5 and Danny for 5.0-5.5, if you negotiate well. When you overpay the bottom guy, you cannot negotiate at all with the upper guys, because their agents know their craft...and that's what pisses me off every time I open our roster at capfriendly.com...

The money/cap being spent on E, Kronwall, KFQ, and Green vs the production they provided this year-both ends of the ice was terrible. No 2 ways about it. Maybe Green and Kronwall bounce back but still. That is close to 20 million on those 4 guys. Good news is we can start to remove and replace them this summer.

[LeftWinger 4,953]

Here's my issue, and I understand the market, BUT I hate that the market dictates to salary and not performance. Just because he is a #2 here, he could be only a #4 on most others, so we have to base his salary on the fact that 29 other #2 guys make $6-$7M. That is why I said I miss when you actually had to earn your contract...

anyhow, if Holland gives DD $6M that would give you two $6M guys and two others making a combined $9M. So just becuase the market dictates it, we should pay 4 D-Men $21M? What are you going to have to pay Yandle to be your #1? $8M? I'm fine with giving DD $4.5M but no more. He can ave a 2 year bridge deal, then after that he can get his 8 years.

I only wish that things can be written in contracts that if you don't play to your market value deal, then you give up salary to the market value of how you are playing...

I have no ill will for DD, for pete's sake I was one of if not the 1st person to mention him possibly signing here and hold him very high on the totem pole. I have him being one of your future "A's" after Pav and Kronwall....hell, he may get it as soon as next season with all the Pav drama happening...

Edited April 12, 2016 by LeftWinger

[kliq 3,755]

Frank, you really think someone will offersheet DeKeyser? Not going to happen.

I think the exact same comment was made last year about Nyquist lol.

People seem to forget that being an RFA and a UFA are big difference.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

I don't get some of you guys dislike for Dekeyser. He is a legit 50 Dman in the NHL and by far the best we have. Is he a #1? No. But he is a #2. #2 Dmen make 6-7 million per year. You don't have to like that but that is the market rate and what he will get paid. We need to lock him up for the next 8 years and be happy we have him. Then go get him some help because this year he was largely doing it all by himself.

12 defensemen have cap hits of $6 mil or more. 29 have cap hits of $5.5 or more. Even factoring in increased contracts, which will by stifled this year because of a lower than normal rise in the cap, he isn't worth that much, nor would I give him a 7 or 8 year contract.

Here's my issue, and I understand the market, BUT I hate that the market dictates to salary and not performance. Just because he is a #2 here, he could be only a #4 on most others, so we have to base his salary on the fact that 29 other #2 guys make $6-$7M. That is why I said I miss when you actually had to earn your contract...

anyhow, if Holland gives DD $6M that would give you two $6M guys and two others making a combined $9M. So just becuase the market dictates it, we should pay 4 D-Men $21M? What are you going to have to pay Yandle to be your #1? $8M? I'm fine with giving DD $4.5M but no more. He can ave a 2 year bridge deal, then after that he can get his 8 years.

I only wish that things can be written in contracts that if you don't play to your market value deal, then you give up salary to the market value of how you are playing...

I have no ill will for DD, for pete's sake I was one of if not the 1st person to mention him possibly signing here and hold him very high on the totem pole. I have him being one of your future "A's" after Pav and Kronwall....hell, he may get it as soon as next season with all the Pav drama happening...

Define "market value." It's almost impossible, especially for defensemen

[Richdg 267]

market value is fairly easy to find. Find players that Dekeyser is comparable to and see what they are signed for. So over the past 4 years here is the list:

Niskanen 5.75 cap hit, signed deal 2 years ago

Orpik 5.5 cap hit, 2 yrs ago

Carle 5.5 cap hit 3 yrs ago

Streit 5.25 cap hit, 3 yrs ago

Staal 5.7 cap hit 1 yrs ago

Giradi 5.5 cap hit 2 yrs ago

Boychuk 6.0 cap hit 1 yrs ago

Leddy 5.5 cap hit 1 yrs ago

Markov 5.75 cap hit 2 yrs ago

E Johnson 6.0 cap hit next year

Hamilton 5.75 cap hit this season

Giordano 6.75 cap hit next season

Myers 5.5 cap hit 4 yrs ago

Enstrom 5.75 cap hit 3 yrs ago

Now those are all players that Dekeyser compares to overall. Yes some better on O some more physical or some better on D. But DD is younger than all of those guys and a 1 for 1 trade for most guys on that list for dekeyser would be equal value. factor in inflation and yes 6 million per year for 8 years is a very fair-maybe even favoring the team, deal.

No a bridge deal would be worse for the team in 2 ways. 1. His next contract at 28/29 will cost even more in terms of dollars/cap hit than doing it now; 2. He is 26. At the end of an 8 year deal he is 34. If we do a bridge deal for 2-3 years then he is signing a big money long term deal at 28/29. That means the contract ends at 37ish. That would increase the chances of the injuries/reduced production like Kronwall and Green.......

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Niskanen 5.75 cap hit, signed deal 2 years ago Coming of a 46 point year

Orpik 5.5 cap hit, 2 yrs ago Bigger hits harder, plus a stupid contract

Carle 5.5 cap hit 3 yrs ago had 40 and 38 points the previous 2 years

Streit 5.25 cap hit, 3 yrs ago bad contract

Staal 5.7 cap hit 1 yrs ago bad contract, better defensively and bigger and stronger

Giradi 5.5 cap hit 2 yrs ago see Staal

Boychuk 6.0 cap hit 1 yrs ago overpaid UFA

Leddy 5.5 cap hit 1 yrs ago more productive player

Markov 5.75 cap hit 2 yrs ago more productive player, key to the Habs PP

E Johnson 6.0 cap hit next year more productive, bigger, plays in all situations

Hamilton 5.75 cap hit this season paid based on potential

Giordano 6.75 cap hit next season stupid contract

Myers 5.5 cap hit 4 yrs ago based on potential after a fast start

Enstrom 5.75 cap hit 3 yrs ago more productive player

The biggest difference between Dekeyser and most of those guys, other than the level of proven production prior to signing the contract, is that they were unrestricted free agents and therefore had more leverage. The few that were RFA's tended to be younger when they signed and had better potential.

[kliq 3,755]

Niskanen 5.75 cap hit, signed deal 2 years ago Coming of a 46 point year

Orpik 5.5 cap hit, 2 yrs ago Bigger hits harder, plus a stupid contract

Carle 5.5 cap hit 3 yrs ago had 40 and 38 points the previous 2 years

Streit 5.25 cap hit, 3 yrs ago bad contract

Staal 5.7 cap hit 1 yrs ago bad contract, better defensively and bigger and stronger

Giradi 5.5 cap hit 2 yrs ago see Staal

Boychuk 6.0 cap hit 1 yrs ago overpaid UFA

Leddy 5.5 cap hit 1 yrs ago more productive player

Markov 5.75 cap hit 2 yrs ago more productive player, key to the Habs PP

E Johnson 6.0 cap hit next year more productive, bigger, plays in all situations

Hamilton 5.75 cap hit this season paid based on potential

Giordano 6.75 cap hit next season stupid contract

Myers 5.5 cap hit 4 yrs ago based on potential after a fast start

Enstrom 5.75 cap hit 3 yrs ago more productive player

The biggest difference between Dekeyser and most of those guys, other than the level of proven production prior to signing the contract, is that they were unrestricted free agents and therefore had more leverage. The few that were RFA's tended to be younger when they signed and had better potential.

The Myers contract and Hamilton contract seem to be where he will fall. They were both RFA right?

[paulwoodsfan 52]

Six out of 14 on that list are "bad contract," "stupid contract" or "overpaid." But here's the thing -- all contracts, including bad or stupid ones, set market rates. Those are all comparables DD's agent will look at. He won't care whether the guy should be paid that much, he'll just care that the guy is being paid that much. If some of those guys are overpaid, maybe DD is better than them and therefore should be paid as much or more. That's the starting point his agent will bring to negots.

[Richdg 267]

Six out of 14 on that list are "bad contract," "stupid contract" or "overpaid." But here's the thing -- all contracts, including bad or stupid ones, set market rates. Those are all comparables DD's agent will look at. He won't care whether the guy should be paid that much, he'll just care that the guy is being paid that much. If some of those guys are overpaid, maybe DD is better than them and therefore should be paid as much or more. That's the starting point his agent will bring to negots.

Bingo. Yes all professional athletes are overpaid. Some are paid for O some for D. But at the end of the day these are the terms of the game that everyone is working under. We can all dislike it, think it sucks etc... But that is the way things go. DD will get paid and it will be for over 5 million per year. If we can do a 6/48 deal we should all be thankful.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

The Myers contract and Hamilton contract seem to be where he will fall. They were both RFA right?

With a higher ceiling

Six out of 14 on that list are "bad contract," "stupid contract" or "overpaid." But here's the thing -- all contracts, including bad or stupid ones, set market rates. Those are all comparables DD's agent will look at. He won't care whether the guy should be paid that much, he'll just care that the guy is being paid that much. If some of those guys are overpaid, maybe DD is better than them and therefore should be paid as much or more. That's the starting point his agent will bring to negots.

Other teams do dumb things Wings do too

[Internet.Unknown 422]

Bingo. Yes all professional athletes are overpaid. Some are paid for O some for D. But at the end of the day these are the terms of the game that everyone is working under. We can all dislike it, think it sucks etc... But that is the way things go. DD will get paid and it will be for over 5 million per year. If we can do a 6/48 deal we should all be thankful.

Naw, best at their profession in the world.