2016 Playoffs % chances (part II)

[FireCaptain 563]

HEY - before y'all get my thread deleted again, please take player discussions ELSEWHERE!!!

Edited April 4, 2016 by FireCaptain

[AtlantaHotWings 974]

up to 60% very nice!!

So do we root for Tampa or NYI ? I am guessing Columbus instead of the Rags...

Gotta say it gives me something meaningful to watch when Detroit isn't playing. Granted I sorta miss the day when we had a playoff spot sewn up by Valentines day as I am not sure my old a** heart can take much more.

[NerveDamage 4,176]

up to 60% very nice!!

So do we root for Tampa or NYI ? I am guessing Columbus instead of the Rags...

Gotta say it gives me something meaningful to watch when Detroit isn't playing. Granted I sorta miss the day when we had a playoff spot sewn up by Valentines day as I am not sure my old a** heart can take much more.

I say root for NYI, if Tampa stays within reach we could even take 2nd place in the division.

[Jacksoni 418]

up to 60% very nice!!

So do we root for Tampa or NYI ? I am guessing Columbus instead of the Rags...

Gotta say it gives me something meaningful to watch when Detroit isn't playing. Granted I sorta miss the day when we had a playoff spot sewn up by Valentines day as I am not sure my old a** heart can take much more.

As discussed, it's probably lower than those 60% since Boston plays 3 home games with rest in between. They are who we chase primarily although we could overtake Philly for the 2nd wild card if things fall very right.

Better have some heart medication ready come wednesday for the Phi-Det game, it will be a battle. And double-dose those pills the next day when we face the bruins at The Garden.

[LeftWinger 4,936]

I say root for NYI, if Tampa stays within reach we could even take 2nd place in the division.

I agree somewhat....2nd would be nice, but I think we have to go for the teams that are closer to us. Root for CBJ and TPA. We have the tie break (so far) with the Isle (ROW) and if CBJ wins, we would be within 2 points of Rangers as well once we beat Philly...

...but it doesn't matter, Boston is going 1-2 and we are going 2-1...Plus Philly is going 2-2 with one of those in a shootout.

Edited April 4, 2016 by LeftWinger

[The Datsyukian Deke 127]

I think the Philly game decides the season. If we lose it, we lose Thursday in Boston, too. If we win it, we win in Boston, because our guys will take the momentum in there and come through. I think that's more of a factor than rest/fatigue and the advantages/disadvantages of both.

Edited April 4, 2016 by The Datsyukian Deke

[NerveDamage 4,176]

damn, I totally forgot we have Philly and Boston in back to backs. Talk about pressure

[SDavis35 140]

5 points. 2-0-1 will guarantee us the playoffs. We have ROW so alternatively all we have to do is beat boston and win one of the other two. It's not easy but it's doable.

[AtlantaHotWings 974]

Hmm Rangers clinched a spot tonight so in a sense nothing to play for on Saturday?

[Aethernum 276]

Hmm Rangers clinched a spot tonight so in a sense nothing to play for on Saturday?

They can still catch Pittsburgh.

5 points. 2-0-1 will guarantee us the playoffs. We have ROW so alternatively all we have to do is beat boston and win one of the other two. It's not easy but it's doable.

Five points in three games guarantees us the playoffs if our loss is to Boston. If we beat Boston in overtime, we need another win. If we beat Boston in regulation, we only need one point between the other two games.

Looking more and more like the Boston game decides the season.

Edited April 5, 2016 by Aethernum

[FireCaptain 563]

It's the 'four' point game.

They can still catch Pittsburgh.


Five points in three games guarantees us the playoffs if our loss is to Boston. If we beat Boston in overtime, we need another win. If we beat Boston in regulation, we only need one point between the other two games.

Looking more and more like the Boston game decides the season.

From an MLIVE article: http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2016/04/5_things_to_watch_red_wings_ha_2.html

1. Big game against Flyers

Wednesday's home finale (8 p.m., NBC Sports Network exclusive) will be the Red Wings' biggest regular season game since 2013, when they needed to win their final four games to clinch a playoff berth. At least it will be until the next night.

The Flyers are 13-4-2 since Feb. 25, including a 4-3 win at home against the Red Wings on March 15, when they outshot Detroit 23-3 in the first period.

The Flyers are 9-3-0 in their past 12 against the Red Wings and have won three of their past six games in Detroit, including a 2-1 shootout victory on Jan. 17. Before that, the Red Wings had gone 15-0-2 (W-L-T) in their previous 17 at home vs. Philly, including the 1997 Stanley Cup finals. But that's all ancient history that will mean nothing on Wednesday.

2. Datsyuk's final home appearance?

Could Wednesday be Pavel Datsyuk's last game at Joe Louis Arena? It's possible, if the Red Wings miss the playoffs.

CBC's Elliotte Friedman reported that Datsyuk might return to Russia after the season due to family reasons, something that his agent, Dan Milstein, would not confirm or deny.

Datsyuk-to-Russia rumors ran rampant in 2013, before he signed a three-year extension that has one year remaining.

If Datsyuk -- who turns 38 on July 31 -- leaves, his $7.5 million salary cap hit for 2016-17 remains on the books. However, the Red Wings could solve that issue by trading his rights to a team that will need to reach the salary cap floor next season, such as the Arizona Coyotes.

The bigger problem, for a team that has difficulty scoring, would be losing their most offensively gifted player.

3. Winner-take-all vs. Bruins?

Thursday's game in Boston (7 p.m., Fox Sports Detroit) could end up being a winner-take-all scenario for third place in the Atlantic.

The struggling Bruins are 2-7-0 in their past nine. They'll be rested, playing against a team that played the night before.

The Red Wings have lost three in a row in Boston, but the Bruins are 16-17-5 at home. Detroit snapped a six-game losing streak overall against the Bruins with a 6-5 win on Feb. 14 at JLA.

4. It's Howard or bust

Jimmy Howard is coming off back-to-back wins and there is no doubt he will start on Wednesday. If he plays well, he's likely to start the next night, too.

The Red Wings probably won't risk starting Petr Mrazek in Boston, after pulling him in three of his past four starts.

For the fourth year in a row, the Red Wings will be leaning on Howard to help them reach the playoffs in the final week of the season.

5. A potentially huge season finale

The Red Wings would rather not go into their season finale Saturday against the Rangers at Madison Square Garden (12:30, NBC) needing to win, especially if Henrik Lundqvist is in goal.

Detroit has lost five in a row at MSG dating back to Dec. 6. 2009. The Rangers are 6-1-2 in their past nine against the Red Wings overall. Six of those games have gone to overtime.

The Rangers are winless in three (0-2-1) heading into a week in which they'll play four games in six days.

If the Rangers have third place in the Metropolitan Division locked up, they night opt to rest some key players. If they're still battling the New York Islanders for the spot, they'll be all in to win.

Edited April 5, 2016 by FireCaptain

[amato 3,210]

1. I think that's our toughest game left.. Although the Boston game is more important. Good thing we'll be well rested.. Wish we didn't play two nights in a row.

2. No.

3 & 4. Probably.

5. So we're overdue?

LGW!

[Hockeymom1960 5,107]

damn, I totally forgot we have Philly and Boston in back to backs. Talk about pressure

They need to put on their big boy panties and man up. Time to win and keep the streak going.

[VM1138 1,921]

I feel like we can beat Boston but will likely lose to Philly. Hopefully that's enough.

[Aethernum 276]

Someone can tell me if any of this is wrong. But I believe I've worked out the following scenarios: If Boston loses tonight, the implications for our game against them are pretty huge. This is what would be at stake (if Boston loses) in our game against them later this week:

- Detroit win of ANY KIND: We're in the playoffs, they're out.

- Detroit overtime loss: We need one win in the remaining two games to make the playoffs.

- Detroit shootout loss: We need two points in the remaining two games to make the playoffs.

If Boston wins tonight, here's what is at stake later this week:

- Detroit regulation win: Need one point in the remaining two games to clinch playoffs.

- Detroit overtime win: Need two points in the remaining two games to clinch playoffs.

- Detroit shootout win: Need one ROW in the remaining two games to clinch playoffs.

- Detroit regulation loss: Can't guarantee playoffs. Would need someone to beat them and deny them at least one point.

- Detroit overtime loss: Can't guarantee playoffs. Would need someone to take them to a shootout and deny them a ROW.

- Detroit shootout loss: Need two wins in the remaining two games to clinch playoffs.

In each of the above scenarios obviously we could still get in over Philly, but since they have a game in hand our fate against them is largely not up to us. Any scenario where we get in over Philly but not Boston (i.e. - as the second wild card) involves Philly losing more than one game, including the one against us.

Edited April 5, 2016 by Aethernum

[krsmith17 7,191]

I've been saying all along I want the Wings to miss the playoffs. f*** the Wings. They're a bad team that don't deserve to get in. Sorry, what were you saying DatsyukianDekes?...

[NerveDamage 4,176]

that would be an ultimate troll job. I say there should be a troll hunter booster here in LGW

Edited April 5, 2016 by NerveDamage

[Jacksoni 418]

I'd love to join that troll wager. But there is no way in hell Boston is losing tonight. The refs will cave in to the crowd just enough.

[kickazz 5,459]

that would be an ultimate troll job. I say there should be a troll hunter booster here in LGW

Someone rang?

[Jacksoni 418]

I've been saying all along I want the Wings to miss the playoffs. f*** the Wings. They're a bad team that don't deserve to get in. Sorry, what were you saying DatsyukianDekes?...

You don't want to see 4 more games with the team over getting 1 position higher in the draft? While keeping the longest playoff streak in sports alive? Such blasphemy.

And those 4 games ensures jobs for all those McDonalds people, Bear trainers and other good folks. Have a heart now.

Edited April 5, 2016 by Jacksoni

[NerveDamage 4,176]

Someone rang?

...you'll have to drop that silver one though, then you and Jim Jamz can have a koon-ut-kal-if-fee to decide who's the leader of the Troll Hunter Squad

[amato 3,210]

I'd love to join that troll wager. But there is no way in hell Boston is losing tonight. The refs will cave in to the crowd just enough.

Good thing the game wasn't played in hell?

So now it's beat Boston (edit: in regulation) and we're in right? What's the tie breaker after ROW?

Edited April 6, 2016 by amato

[Aethernum 276]

[big Long Post]

Of course I didn't account for the possibility of a shootout...Okay, so with the shootout loss by Boston today, here's what things come down to for us against Boston later this week:

Detroit regulation win - We're in the playoffs. Boston is out.

Detroit overtime win - Have to go at least 0-1-1 to guarantee the playoffs.

Detroit shootout win - Have to go at least 0-0-2 to guarantee the playoffs.

Boston regulation win - Have to go 2-0 to guarantee the playoffs (both wins in regulation/OT).

Boston overtime win - Have to go 2-0 to guarantee the playoffs.

Boston shootout win - Have to go 1-0-1 to guarantee the playoffs (win has to be regulation/OT).

In other words, even if we lose to Boston later this week our playoff destiny is still under our control. By losing tonight, Boston has put themselves in a situation to need outside help to make it.

Edited April 6, 2016 by Aethernum

[FireCaptain 563]

Nice work, that's what this thread is all about!!

Of course I didn't account for the possibility of a shootout...Okay, so with the shootout loss by Boston today, here's what things come down to for us against Boston later this week:

Detroit regulation win - We're in the playoffs. Boston is out.

Detroit overtime OR shootout win - Have to go at least 0-1-1 to guarantee the playoffs.

Boston regulation win - Have to go 2-0 to guarantee the playoffs (one win would have to be in regulation/OT).

Boston overtime win - Have to go 1-0-1 to guarantee the playoffs (win has to be regulation/OT).

Boston shootout win - Have to go 1-0-1 to guarantee the playoffs.

In other words, even if we lose to Boston later this week our playoff destiny is still under our control. By losing tonight, Boston has put themselves in a situation to need outside help to make it.

[kickazz 5,459]

We're upto 66% I believe