2016 Playoffs % chances (part II)

[HadThomasVokounOnFortSt 878]

Just think if we were able to score against Toronto in that one game.. What could've been. Oh well! Let's go!!!

[kylee 727]

Just think if we were able to score against Toronto in that one game.. What could've been. Oh well! Let's go!!!

I can't help but keep remembering that game too. Shut out by the worst team in the league.

[Buppy 1,720]

Of course I didn't account for the possibility of a shootout...Okay, so with the shootout loss by Boston today, here's what things come down to for us against Boston later this week:

Detroit regulation win - We're in the playoffs. Boston is out.

Detroit overtime OR shootout win - Have to go at least 0-1-1 to guarantee the playoffs.

Boston regulation win - Have to go 2-0 to guarantee the playoffs (one win would have to be in regulation/OT).

Boston overtime win - Have to go 1-0-1 to guarantee the playoffs (win has to be regulation/OT).

Boston shootout win - Have to go 1-0-1 to guarantee the playoffs.

In other words, even if we lose to Boston later this week our playoff destiny is still under our control. By losing tonight, Boston has put themselves in a situation to need outside help to make it.

Couple minor corrections:

If we beat Boston in a shootout, we would need 2 points to guarantee a spot.

If Boston beats us in a SO, we would need either 4 points or 3 with a ROW.

Reason is in those scenarios, Boston either wins or ties the season series, and they would win goal differential. We're currently only one ROW ahead. So we need either more points or to match them in both points and ROW.

[GMRwings1983 8,794]

14.8%

Is that the alcohol content of what you're currently drinking?

[Aethernum 276]

Couple minor corrections:

If we beat Boston in a shootout, we would need 2 points to guarantee a spot.

If Boston beats us in a SO, we would need either 4 points or 3 with a ROW.

Reason is in those scenarios, Boston either wins or ties the season series, and they would win goal differential. We're currently only one ROW ahead. So we need either more points or to match them in both points and ROW.

Good catch! For some reason I thought we were ahead of them by two in ROW. Edited to reflect your corrections. So it's this:

Detroit regulation win - We're in the playoffs. Boston is out.

Detroit overtime win - Have to go at least 0-1-1 to guarantee the playoffs.

Detroit shootout win - Have to go at least 0-0-2 to guarantee the playoffs.

Boston regulation win - Have to go 2-0 to guarantee the playoffs (both wins in regulation/OT).

Boston overtime win - Have to go 2-0 to guarantee the playoffs.

Boston shootout win - Have to go 1-0-1 to guarantee the playoffs (win has to be regulation/OT).

Edited April 6, 2016 by Aethernum

[AtlantaHotWings 987]

Good catch! For some reason I thought we were ahead of them by two in ROW. Edited to reflect your corrections. So it's this:

Detroit regulation win - We're in the playoffs. Boston is out.

Detroit overtime win - Have to go at least 0-1-1 to guarantee the playoffs.

Detroit shootout win - Have to go at least 0-0-2 to guarantee the playoffs.

Boston regulation win - Have to go 2-0 to guarantee the playoffs (both wins in regulation/OT).

Boston overtime win - Have to go 2-0 to guarantee the playoffs.

Boston shootout win - Have to go 1-0-1 to guarantee the playoffs (win has to be regulation/OT).

Just cause I am old and feeble based on the Boston wins scenario we HAVE to beat Philly tonight then NY on Sat correct? So once again basically we need to win back to back and all is well.

[amato 3,210]

Beating philly would be ideal, yeah. But those scenarios are also if Boston wins against Ottawa. There's still a chance we make it losing to both philly and Boston but obviously we'd much rather be in control and a reg/OT win tonight would make us very much in control of our playoff hopes no matter what happens in Boston.

[Nyquistfan14 489]

Another thing to look at is philly plays 4 games in 5 nights that's not something teams ever see

[krsmith17 7,191]

Wow, that is a pretty s***ty schedule for Philadelphia... at Detroit, home to Toronto and Pittsburgh and at New York I. in 5 days to close out the season... That last day on Sunday must be the two makeup games are they?

[Jacksoni 418]

Wow, that is a pretty s***ty schedule for Philadelphia... at Detroit, home to Toronto and Pittsburgh and at New York I. in 5 days to close out the season... That last day on Sunday must be the two makeup games are they?

That's right that last Phi@NYI is the canceled game due to a snow storm if you recall. Also why they have 4 games in 5 days.

[krsmith17 7,191]

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Same for the Ducks Capitals game I would assume?...

[Aethernum 276]

Just cause I am old and feeble based on the Boston wins scenario we HAVE to beat Philly tonight then NY on Sat correct? So once again basically we need to win back to back and all is well.

If we beat Philly tonight it would go a long way towards clarifying the stakes for the Boston game. As amato said, it's entirely possible that we lose both games in these next two days and still make the playoffs if Boston doesn't win their last game. Same thing with Philly.

But winning tonight would be huge because it would give us two opportunities to clinch. A regulation win tonight would mean that even if we lost to Boston tomorrow, we could still clinch the playoffs with a win against the Rangers.

[Barrie 900]

Just think if we were able to score against Toronto in that one game.. What could've been. Oh well! Let's go!!!

Right, can't worry about that, just keep winning.

[HadThomasVokounOnFortSt 878]

Right, can't worry about that, just keep winning.

I agree, I was just saying. I'm excited for tonight! Playoff hockey starts for us now!!

[kickazz 5,459]

I agree, I was just saying. I'm excited for tonight! Playoff hockey starts for us now!!

Started a week ago imo

[FireCaptain 563]

I read an article yesterday that in the last three years the Wings clinched in:

2015: Game 81.

2014: Game 80.

2013: Game 82.

I can't take this!!!!!!!!!

[Barrie 900]

I agree, I was just saying. I'm excited for tonight! Playoff hockey starts for us now!!

Yup, I got what you were saying. To bad we lost that game, but let's go!

[HadThomasVokounOnFortSt 878]

We for sure can't clinch tonight, gotta be tomorrow with couple wins?

[Aethernum 276]

We for sure can't clinch tonight, gotta be tomorrow with couple wins?

Nope, can't clinch tonight. And a regulation win tomorrow clinches the playoffs no matter what happens tonight. Here's the breakdown for all the playoff scenarios moving forward. Please, someone correct me if something is wrong:

If we win tonight in regulation/OT:

Any kind of win in Boston - Clinch the playoffs.

SO loss in Boston - Need one point against NYR.

Regulation/OT loss in Boston - Have to win against NYR.

If we win tonight in a shootout:

Any kind of win in Boston - Clinch the playoffs.

SO/OT loss in Boston - Have to win against NYR.

Regulation loss in Boston - Have to win against NYR, and have Boston lose their last game.

If we lose in OT/SO tonight:

Regulation or OT win in Boston - Clinch the playoffs.

SO win in Boston - Need one point against NYR.

SO loss in Boston - Have to win against NYR in regulation/OT.

OT loss in Boston - Have to win against NYR, and have Boston lose their last game.

Regulation loss in Boston - Have to win in regulation/OT against NYR, and have Boston lose their last game.

If we lose in regulation tonight:

Regulation win in Boston - Clinch the playoffs.

OT win in Boston - Need one point against NYR.

SO win in Boston - Have to win against NYR.

SO loss in Boston - Have to win against NYR, and have Boston lose their last game.

OT loss in Boston - Need to win in regulation/OT against NYR, and have Boston lose their last game.

Regulation loss in Boston - Need to win in regulation/OT against NYR, and have Boston lose their last game in regulation.

Edited April 6, 2016 by Aethernum

[xtrememachine1 795]

So basically what you're saying is, we NEED to beat Boston to get into the playoffs regardless of what happens tonight. Boston won't lose to Ottawa at home with the postseason on the line. We're 1-2 against them this year, but we've been pretty evenly matched with them all year, so a 2-2 record against them seems appropriate.

[Aethernum 276]

So basically what you're saying is, we NEED to beat Boston to get into the playoffs regardless of what happens tonight. Boston won't lose to Ottawa at home with the postseason on the line. We're 1-2 against them this year, but we've been pretty evenly matched with them all year, so a 2-2 record against them seems appropriate.

Not necessarily. If we win tonight in regulation and against NYR, the Boston game is irrelevant. But yes, beating Boston simplifies everything.

Edited April 6, 2016 by Aethernum

[AtlantaHotWings 987]

wow such a swing on the playoff chances site.

Win in reg is plus 19

Lose in reg is neg 22

Gotta say this is a gut check moment for the team, blash etc.

[GMRwings1983 8,794]

I read an article yesterday that in the last three years the Wings clinched in:

2015: Game 81.

2014: Game 80.

2013: Game 82.

I can't take this!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, it was more fun when we had talent. I used to sleep through the games at this point in the season. The only mystery was about who we'd play in the playoffs and whether we'd win the Presidents trophy.

[NerveDamage 4,176]

Yeah, it was more fun when we had talent. I used to sleep through the games at this point in the season. The only mystery was about who we'd play in the playoffs and whether we'd win the Presidents trophy.

you were spoiled

Edited April 6, 2016 by NerveDamage

[kliq 3,755]

you were spoiled

We were totally spoiled back then. I can remember pretty much just waiting for the playoffs every year as the regular season just felt like they didn't matter. It was never a question of will we get in, but rather will we be #1 or #2 seed. I'm definitely more invested in the regular season in 2016.