• Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

Hockeytown0001

Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Rate this topic

Recommended Posts

33 once and 32 another year, then he went through basically three years of injury after injury. Since then, he's been relatively healthy and there's no reason to believe he won't be relatively healthy again this season. And IF he is, there's no reason he shouldn't be able to produce 30+ points. I'm a firm believer that in today's NHL, for every $1M, you should get approximately 10 points, give or take. Helm being a 30 point producer should have gotten around $3M, so while it is slight over payment, I'd rather pay Helm an extra $850K than sign Miller and Ott for $2M...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd rather not have re-signed Helm, Miller or Ott and saved around $5.5 million. Again that's exactly my point. None of them needed to be resigned. But 2 of the 3 likely were because Holland likely wasn't sure going in if he'd hit or miss in free agency.

What could $5.5 million have gotten us? For one probably 3 less forwards that we're log jammed with.

Edited by kickazz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My personal preference would have been to re-sign Helm, let Miller walk and not go anywhere near Ott. I'm not really arguing what we should or shouldn't have done, my argument is Helm's worth to the team. I think he is a very valuable and underrated player, and he will earn that contract, at least for the first three seasons... I don't mind people saying, we shouldn't have signed Helm because we have way too many forwards now and there are a bunch of deserving players that are going to be without a spot in the lineup... What pisses me off is the few people that keep saying how s***ty or useless he is as a player...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Darren Helm might be overpaid (for 82 regular season games), but he is still a valuable commodity on this team. He can play up and down the lineup (which is more important than advertised), kill penalties and provide a fore-check better than anyone not named Justin Abdelkader.

Come April, every team needs several guys like this to wear down the opponents D (that just didn't sound right, but it is pride month - so enjoy!!!). It's also hard to compare Nyquist's salary to his, because Nyquist is a different player with a different role on this team - and was actually more disappointing through that lens this past postseason. They both had 1 goal and 0 assists, but Helm did much more for this team than score - while Nyquist simply doesn't.

All in all, he still has the tools to be one of the most effective third line centers in the league - and $3,000,000 - $4,000,000 is what that probably costs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WingedWheel, it seems we don't agree on much, but I agree with you here 100%. Great post!

I also agree that Fowler is massively overrated. I would take him on this team, but not at the price it would likely cost. Like I've said before, if we're over paying for a defenseman, it needs to be a true number one or at least one that has the potential to be a true number one...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Darren Helm might be overpaid (for 82 regular season games), but he is still a valuable commodity on this team. He can play up and down the lineup (which is more important than advertised), kill penalties and provide a fore-check better than anyone not named Justin Abdelkader.

Come April, every team needs several guys like this to wear down the opponents D (that just didn't sound right, but it is pride month - so enjoy!!!). It's also hard to compare Nyquist's salary to his, because Nyquist is a different player with a different role on this team - and was actually more disappointing through that lens this past postseason. They both had 1 goal and 0 assists, but Helm did much more for this team than score - while Nyquist simply doesn't.

All in all, he still has the tools to be one of the most effective third line centers in the league - and $3,000,000 - $4,000,000 is what that probably costs.

How many 3Cs in the league are getting paid $3.85 million for 5 years? I'm curious. BTW Helm hasn't consistently played 3C in almost 3 years. Lastly, I don't think Helm brings anything to the table a guy like AA can't. Sure Helm might be a better Pker, might be better on the faceoff (which he never takes because he doesn't play center anymore while AA actually will). But just because he might be better currently in those departments doesn't mean you sign the guy for next 5 years till hes 35 years old. It's a bad contract. There's not a single way to justify the term nor the dollars.

The more I think about it the more I think Andreas Athanesiou should have been handed the "Helm reigns" this season. Kills penalties, is a drafted centerman, is fast a the dog from Bolt 3D. Has hands. Is actually a better scorer than Helm is. Helm has the grit on AA but if that's all about there is to it then that's not a convincing reason to keep him.

I've been watching some Traverse City videos btw (development camp) and Bertuzzi should be in for Miller lol. I hope he snatches an NHL spot this year.

And Givani Smith is pretty damn good too. The guy is going to be the Red Wings version of Wayne Simmonds- mark it. And I never overhype prospects but I am certainly looking forward to Smith in a couple of years.

Edited by kickazz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think it was THAT important to resign Helm to be honest. And I especially didn't think Miller was either. I think Holland tried to play it safe and wanted to keep them in case he didn't land other free agents.

$3.85 x5 isn't a slight overpayment for a bottom 6, 26 point scorer. It's a pretty big overpayment. Even if he kills penalties.

Just to put it into perspective, Gustav Nyquist scored more goals (27 goals) than Helm scored points (26 points total) when he got his contract and only makes 900k more.

This was a bad contract. And it's not even bad in hindsight like Ericsson's was (who was probably expected to be a pretty good D man but ended up disappointing most fans). This one is bad from day 1 and I'm hoping to god, moses and buddah that there's no NMC or NTC so we aren't stuck with it if it doesn't work out.

Goose scored 17 last year. Taking from a different year seems like cherry picking stats to me.

This wasn't an essential signing. I'm glad we reupped him, but I can see why some disagree. Without the Miller, Ott signing, I think people would look at it differently. I don't think the caphit is a big deal, though. We have Lark, AA, and others on their entry contracts and other young players on RFA deals for the next while - we would have to worry the cap for a bit. Also, who was there to throw money at?

Even in his best year he put up 33 points (once). Almost everyone you mentioned were either former 40-55 point scorers or are making 900k less than his current contract is so either way it's still an overpayment. Matt Cullen signed his 3 year extension after scoring 48 and 39 points and signed with the penguins after scoring 25 points in 62 games (not 25 in 77). And why would I compare one bad contract with another? (Matt Stajan). Actually Stajan's contract isn't that bad since he's 3.1 million not 3.85. Kruger is only 26 and still has an upside. He's not 29.

No matter how you cut it, it's an overpayment. By about a million dollars. Which is my point anyway. He's worth less than $3 million. Max $3 million in my opinion. Probably would have gotten $4.5 million in free agency because some managers like to throw money.

This is not true.

2010-2011: 32 pts

2012-2013: 26 pts in 68 games (got injured, traslates to 31 pts. over the full year)

2013-2014: 20 pts in 42 games (lockout season. His best season for pts per game. 39 pts over 82)

2014-2015: 33 pts

Last year was a down year for his production - like it was for almost everyone on the team. from his record you can expect over 30 pts from him.

I think saying he's worth less than 3 mill is unrealistic. He would have gotten more than 4 in free agency. That is worth - market dictates value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The difference between Goose and Helm is that Helm turns 30 sometime this season and Goose was turning 26 entering into his prime.

I honestly would probably be calling this an excellent deal if Helm was 25 rather than 29. I'm looking at this situation in it's entire scope. I'll reiterate some points.

1. We have a log jam of NHL forwards.

2. We have a log jam of AHL forwards or extras trying to become NHL forwards (Mantha, AA, Jurco, Pulk, Bert, Callahan)

3. 5 years. This contract runs till he's 34. If 29 year old Helm's best is 33 points what will 32 y/o Helm be? 33? 34?

4. His best production was when he was 24 years old. His next best production was in 2015 where he thrived as Datsyuk's wing (Tatar - Datsyuk - Helm line). Can he repeat the production without Pav? I'm not saying he won't but it's something to think about.

5. Injury history. It's pretty bad. Doesn't mean it will happen again, doesn't mean it won't either. These things should be considered when making 5 year deals imo.

6. Was it worth paying $3.85 million when perhaps AA could take the role? AA doesn't have the same grit but he can probably provide the same duties on the third line and on the PK. We also have Nielsen now so the PK will primarily be his to handle.

7. Perhaps it is Helms market value. Maybe you guys are right. But does that mean management should pay it? I mean, it's not like it's Datsyuk hitting UFA. If that was the case, we do whatever we could to retain him. But was their hand really forced here? I don't think so.

I just don't see this contract working out in our favor. I hope I'm wrong though. And it all depends on if he has a NTC or NMC.

If there's a NMC then lol.

Edited by kickazz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe I just wanted a different direction for the team and felt like re-signing Helm, Miller and then signing Ott was "meh guess you're not changing much".

I like the Vanek signing. I like the Nielsen signing (although term is also too much but we did need a center), so it's justifiable in a sense.

Edited by kickazz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The team hasn't changed much, for sure. We got a net front presence, so we improved there, and we made a lateral move with Nielsen replacing a crippled Datsyuk. But that's it. Maybe slightly more agitatorish with Ott. But still basically the same team. Basically it all hinges on Vanek transforming into a stud who gives us the net front presence. So not a hugely drastic change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The difference between Goose and Helm is that Helm turns 30 sometime this season and Goose was turning 26 entering into his prime.

I honestly would probably be calling this an excellent deal if Helm was 25 rather than 29. I'm looking at this situation in it's entire scope. I'll reiterate some points.

1. We have a log jam of NHL forwards.

2. We have a log jam of AHL forwards or extras trying to become NHL forwards (Mantha, AA, Jurco, Pulk, Bert, Callahan)

3. 5 years. This contract runs till he's 34. If 29 year old Helm's best is 33 points what will 32 y/o Helm be? 33? 34?

4. His best production was when he was 24 years old. His next best production was in 2015 where he thrived as Datsyuk's wing (Tatar - Datsyuk - Helm line). Can he repeat the production without Pav? I'm not saying he won't but it's something to think about.

5. Injury history. It's pretty bad. Doesn't mean it will happen again, doesn't mean it won't either. These things should be considered when making 5 year deals imo.

6. Was it worth paying $3.85 million when perhaps AA could take the role? AA doesn't have the same grit but he can probably provide the same duties on the third line and on the PK. We also have Nielsen now so the PK will primarily be his to handle.

7. Perhaps it is Helms market value. Maybe you guys are right. But does that mean management should pay it? I mean, it's not like it's Datsyuk hitting UFA. If that was the case, we do whatever we could to retain him. But was their hand really forced here? I don't think so.

I just don't see this contract working out in our favor. I hope I'm wrong though. And it all depends on if he has a NTC or NMC.

If there's a NMC then lol.

3. 5 years is short for anyone re-signing a UFA at 29. I'll bet we had to go with this higher cap-hit to cut down the years. Most signings of homegrown UFA forwards seem to be 7 or 8 years now. I don't see any problems with a 34 year old Helm. We just signed Nielsen at 32 for 6 years.

4. Like in my previous post, His best production year was 2 years ago when he was 27. As you say, his 32 pts. in 2010-11 was without Pav. If you take this year's production numbers as the beginning of a downfall most of our team will be in the basement in a few years. I expect most players' number to return to form as Blash/new PP guy figures out the offence/lines better in his 2nd year.

5. He does have an injury history. The back injury was concerning but that was 3-4 years ago and hasn't come back. His cut wrist tendon isn't a recurring problem. The concussion this year in training camp can maybe account for some of his down year since he didn't have the regular season prep. Not too worried about injuries on the whole since they've all been unrelated, rather that one chronic problem.

Anyway, I've said my piece. To me, Helm is someone we know what to expect from and that's speed, consistent effort, solid defensive play, secondary scoring. I think we'll see that for the 5 year term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.