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Hockeytown0001

Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

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"It's just the way the fourth line plays". This right here is my biggest issue. The 4th line shouldn't necessarily have to play that way, but the guys we have on our 4th line do. We could go with a 4th line of players sitting / sent down, Jurco - Athanasiou - Mantha, and actually generate some offense, but instead we'll have the "shut-down" line of Miller - Glendening - Ott...

Maybe. No doubt we are in a pretty good spot in terms of skill depth. Though I do doubt that a skill 4th line would contribute much more offense, and maybe not enough more to make up for the loss of defensive play. I would like to see us give it a try though.

...

Oh but that's what the coaches want and their word is a gold mine. None of us have any idea what we're talking about. We just read WIIM and are clueless about hockey. Clearly what Blashill did was the recipe for success. Dump and chase all day baby that's where it's at, just look at the last 7 years of Stanley cup winners.

Wait a minute lol.. LA, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston... Well teams are all ranked 1-4 in possession that DON'T rely on dump and chase... Whoops!

Do you realize that we ended up as one of the better possession teams last year? Not much worse than PIT really. Better than Chicago. Carolina and Toronto were 2nd and 3rd. Looking back over a span of 4+ years, only LA and Chicago have really been better.

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Do you realize that we ended up as one of the better possession teams last year? Not much worse than PIT really. Better than Chicago. Carolina and Toronto were 2nd and 3rd. Looking back over a span of 4+ years, only LA and Chicago have really been better.

Yeah. I know exactly how our possession is. We've always been a possession driven team with Babcock's "shoot the puck" mentality. We were one of the top possession team in 2015 when we took Tampa to game 7. Our possession dipped under Blashill this last year. Which is fine, rookie coach.

When I quoted Krsmith and made the statement it was because weeks ago a member was trying to justify sitting and shot blocking over possession style hockey.

Anyways, it's funny you mention Toronto though. For years Toronto was one of the worst possession teams and just this past year they were around top 10 on possession. It only makes sense since their new coach happens to be our old coach.

As for the bold part. You just said it yourself. Only LA and Chicago have really been better. And they've also happened to combine for 5 Stanley cups in the last 7 years.

I don't understand, aren't you one of the "pro possession-style hockey" people?

Also are you looking at CF%?

Edited by kickazz

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Yeah. I know exactly how our possession is. We've always been a possession driven team with Babcock's "shoot the puck" mentality. We were one of the top possession team in 2015 when we took Tampa to game 7. Our possession dipped under Blashill this last year. Which is fine, rookie coach.

When I quoted Krsmith and made the statement it was because weeks ago a member was trying to justify sitting and shot blocking over possession style hockey.

Anyways, it's funny you mention Toronto though. For years Toronto was one of the worst possession teams and just this past year they were around top 10 on possession. It only makes sense since their new coach happens to be our old coach.

As for the bold part. You just said it yourself. Only LA and Chicago have really been better. And they've also happened to combine for 5 Stanley cups in the last 7 years.

I don't understand, aren't you one of the "pro possession-style hockey" people?

Also are you looking at CF%?

Yes, CF%. Seems likely to be the best indicator of actual possession time.

I would consider myself to be "pro-possession", but I also believe it's only one part of a very intricate whole. Also, the difference between good and bad possession is not that large, really. Not enough that we should consider possession to be a replacement for "traditional" defense.

To illustrate, last season we were near the top of the league in corsi against. Only LA and NJ allowed fewer. But we were the worst shot-blocking team in the league, and our opponents also missed a lower-than-average % of shot attempts against us (suggesting we were allowing higher quality shot attempts, and/or more second chances). The result is that we were only middle-of-pack in actual shots against as well as goals against. We were pretty good at possession, but poor defensively, and the result was mediocrity.

Then of course we also had our struggles offensively as well. Average or below pretty much everywhere.

We need to improve our traditional defense and we need to improve both the quantity and quality of our offensive production. And it all ties in together; improve in one area and it will help in others. But I don't think it's as simple as just "play skilled kids".

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The question for me then is this. The high quality shot attempts and second scoring chances made against us, when is this happening? Is it because of player deployment? matchups? defensive pairs? Where are the weak links causing those issues on defense? Is it just lack of traditional defensive skill all across the board?

Edited by kickazz

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Offensive players like Smith and Jurco are asked to play defensive games, defensive players like Helm, Abdelkader, and Dekeyser are given offensive roles. But when the offensive guys don't get a shot and don't produce it's all their fault and the coaches know better than fans.

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The question for me then is this. The high quality shot attempts and second scoring chances made against us, when is this happening? Is it because of player deployment? matchups? defensive pairs? Where are the weak links causing those issues on defense? Is it just lack of traditional defensive skill all across the board?

Most likely is "a little of this, a little of that" kind of thing. By and large, any one stat can't tell you a whole lot. Our shot blocking is probably systemic, since we're bad across the board. League average block% is a bit over 25%, and Pulk is the only one we have close to that, most of the team is in the 19-21% range. Corsi Sv% (% of shot attempts against that are blocked, missed, or saved) is probably the best indicator of defense quality, but even that is probably only a loose correlation at best.

For what it's worth, league average is about 96%. We had 6 players (Andersson, Pulk, Richards, Miller, Glendening, and Larkin) above that, and 7 more (Dekeyser, Ericsson, Marchenko, Datsyuk, Quincey, Zetterberg, Helm) in the 95.5-96 range. As a team, we were only a little below average in that respect.

I don't think that info leads to a solution though. The top "defenders" (for lack of a better term) are either gone or poor possession players, negating most of the benefit. Pulk is almost certainly skewed by usage.

Without replacing several players with better players, improvement is only going to come from a pretty much team and system wide focus on being just a little better all over. It's not hopeless, of course, but I don't think there's any simple fix to be found.

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Everyone is so good at pointing out the problems with the team without providing any better solution

Lol. If I went through the last 500 GDTs (I'm not even exaggerating it's that sad), I'd probably find a million posts of you doing the same exact thing. Practice what you preach. And from what I've seen, a lot of people have actually suggested their ideal line-ups and direction they would like out of the team.

Edited by kickazz

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I know most people don't like this idea. But with larkin being so young and already a top 6 center, and nielson locked up long term, why not trade aa in a package for a dman?

You're right, most people won't like it. I don't. I happen to think that AA is your future 3rd, then 2nd line center. Nielsen will be #1/#2 for a couple seasons then move down the charts after that. The only way AA or Mantha should be dealt is if it's for a legit #1 throughout the nhl, not just #1 on our team.

Next season we'll be without Miller and Ott. Helm and Sheahan can makeup the 4th line with Glendening, making AA your #3 to start his nhl career.

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You're right, most people won't like it. I don't. I happen to think that AA is your future 3rd, then 2nd line center. Nielsen will be #1/#2 for a couple seasons then move down the charts after that. The only way AA or Mantha should be dealt is if it's for a legit #1 throughout the nhl, not just #1 on our team.

Next season we'll be without Miller and Ott. Helm and Sheahan can makeup the 4th line with Glendening, making AA your #3 to start his nhl career.

Will we though? :brow:

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We're calling Jurco and Smith offensive guys now? Based on what? Everyone is so good at pointing out the problems with the team without providing any better solution

We can't score so play Smith and Jurco more who also can't score... Rock solid logic

If I recall, when he was in the lineup, Smith did very well for himself last season. If we aren't getting a dman, I say put Smith on the top pair with DD.

Jurco needs to be used correctly. He is an offensive threat. But not on the 4th line with Miller and Glendening. When he was with Sheahan and Tatar he did very well. I'd love to see a line of JURCO-AA-MANTHA.

Will we though? :brow:

Shhhhhhhhhh!

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I'm not keen on losing AA and will be upset if he lands back in GR. Just love his speed and his game but at some point you need to pull the trigger to get a top Defenseman. I'd rather trade AA and get something of need than to sit on his talent and waste it on lower levels of play. I'd rather trade away half our team at this point than to lose Larkin and AA..I'd rather build around them.

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If I recall, when he was in the lineup, Smith did very well for himself last season. If we aren't getting a dman, I say put Smith on the top pair with DD.

If we aren't getting a young D stud (which I much prefer) I'm all for putting Smith on the top 4. Then feel him out, if he is all business increase the minutes over time/games.

It's not like we have much choice in the matter if that scenario plays out I think. I recently heard in an interview that Kronwall's knee wasn't great still - that issue we atleast can observe first hand in the World cup of hockey that is coming up as he's playing for Sweden.

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So what's up with this World Cup of hockey? Not hearing much about it other then it starts on September 9th I believe?

they announced the roster today.

https://www.nhl.com/news/world-cup-of-hockey-rosters/c-280810684?tid=278386054

I didn't understand why there was a NA team, but all their players are u-23. McDavid, Eichel and Larkin playing together. Is gonna be fun to watch.

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If we aren't getting a young D stud (which I much prefer) I'm all for putting Smith on the top 4. Then feel him out, if he is all business increase the minutes over time/games.

It's not like we have much choice in the matter if that scenario plays out I think. I recently heard in an interview that Kronwall's knee wasn't great still - that issue we atleast can observe first hand in the World cup of hockey that is coming up as he's playing for Sweden.

Apparently it's inoperable. Sad. But so was Datsyuk's knee and he still was able to produce so..

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I will watch all NA team games, on the screen unfortunately. As said above, every player in the NA is 23 or under. They are gonna play guns blazing, using their one advantage - speed/young legs, from the defensive end all the way up to the goalies. Should be a great watch.

Edited by Jacksoni

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Some food for thought... this was posted in a slightly different context.

Many of us react crazily to the notion of trading AA or Mantha, etc... but we often forget you have to give to get and their is risk in making trades. Below are two links surrounding the trade of Brent Burns, the first article is from 2011 and the second from 2015. The outlook on the trade changed considerably in just 4 years. What looked like a good trade for the wild, turned out to be a major blunder. You never know with prospects and unproven players.

http://www2.tsn.ca/tradecentre/story/?id=369904

http://thehockeywriters.com/revisiting-the-brent-burns-trade/

Bottom line for me I'd trade any player on the roster including Larkin in the right deal, even Larkin may flame out in a couple of years.

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