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Hockeytown0001

Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

By Hockeytown0001, in General

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krsmith17    7,191

krsmith17
Posted

Yeah man, f*** stats, they're way overrated. Smith sucks because a few fans refuse to accept the fact that he's a completely different player than he was a couple years ago. Every advanced stat indicates that Smith is a top 4 defenseman, but because you say he sucks, it must make it true...

I agree that Holland trading for Trouba is very unlikely but I'm still holding out hope, just like I am with several other things on my summer wish list... I'd be okay with Fowler for sure, but that's even more unlikely than Trouba, and I doubt Anaheim would want Howard, certainly not for one of their top defensemen.

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joesuffP    1,746

joesuffP
Posted (edited)

I like Smith but these advanced stats don't hold much water when he isn't playing top 4 minutes. Has he been given enough opportunity? Probably not but possession stats aren't really a true indicator when you are given sheltered minutes. No shot at Smith imo he's the most likely defensemen in this organization to take a big step and become a key to our blue line. He still has a lot to prove but he also deserves the chance with some more responsibilities

Edited by joesuffP

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krsmith17    7,191

krsmith17
Posted (edited)

When a player is THAT much better in virtually every advanced stat, I think it definitely holds water. I also believe that level of competition is a bit of a wash over the course of a season. You can argue that a coach tries to put his bottom pairing guys out against weaker competition, but what about all the times the oppositions coach tries to put his top lines out against your lower pairs? Home coach usually wins the matchup battle due to having last change, and every team has 41 home games and 41 road games. I think Smith would line up pretty evenly with other "top 4" defensemen around the league in regards to level of competition...

Edited by krsmith17

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kipwinger    8,518

kipwinger
Posted

I don't think there's any reason to over inflate Smiths value, but there's no value in denying it either. He's a good possession defenseman given the minutes he's getting. Currently, he's no problem for the wings on the third pair. But should you find yourself gushing too much over him remember that Green's possession numbers are almost as good AND he scored way more points. That's what stops Smith from being good instead of situationally good. He hadn't, so far, translated his puck possession skills into active offensive contribution. So he's decent, not nearly as good OR bad as his detractors or proponents suggest.

Saying all that, I'd keep him. I think the league is trending toward athletic, puck possession, defensemen. And I think he has value in that regard. But I think ideally he will always be a third pair guy unless he starts producing enough offense to counterbalance his poor defensive zone play.

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krsmith17    7,191

krsmith17
Posted (edited)

Smith is an unbelievably good possession player, not just on the Red Wings but league wide. He's one of our top puck moving defensemen and by far our best skating defenseman. He's just now reaching his prime and I believe we will finally see exactly what he is capable of this year. He has never put up big points at the NHL level but there's no reason to think he can't crush his career highs this season. Even if he doesn't put up huge point totals, he's still very valuable because when he's on the ice, the puck spends more time in the offensive zone than the defensive zone...

Also, I'm not trying to knock Green because I think he had a much better year than most give him credit for, but for all the extra minutes he had over Smith, he finished the season with a whopping 1 single even strength point more than Smith... I know a lot of people don't think Smith has "earned" power-play time, but I think his point totals would double and the power-play would be more dangerous with Smith on one of the units...

Edited by krsmith17

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krsmith17    7,191

krsmith17
Posted

There is also a stat, not sure where I seen it now, so take it for what it's worth, but it was something to the effect of Smith leading the team in passes completed that lead to shots on goal and high quality scoring chances. I'm not saying his lack of production is all because of bad luck, or lack of teammates being able to finish, but it is likely a contributing factor, as small as it may be...

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HockeytownRules19    902

HockeytownRules19
Posted

Significantly higher than I was expecting... I was thinking between $1.25-1.5M... He just had his worst season statistically speaking and he doubles his annual salary?...

Ferschweiler is no longer coaching the forwards, he'll get better no worries from me lol

Besides IMO I think that is a pretty reasonable bridge contract to a long term one.

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krsmith17    7,191

krsmith17
Posted

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's crippling by any stretch, just higher than I would have expected. Especially since Holland's strongest area is re-signing his RFA's to very low cap contracts...


I agree, there's no reason not to expect 30+ points next season, and that along with his faceoff ability, two-way play and big body is worth it. $1.5M would have been great, $2M is reasonable.

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VM1138    1,921

VM1138
Posted

Smith is an unbelievably good possession player, not just on the Red Wings but league wide. He's one of our top puck moving defensemen and by far our best skating defenseman. He's just now reaching his prime and I believe we will finally see exactly what he is capable of this year. He has never put up big points at the NHL level but there's no reason to think he can't crush his career highs this season. Even if he doesn't put up huge point totals, he's still very valuable because when he's on the ice, the puck spends more time in the offensive zone than the defensive zone...

Also, I'm not trying to knock Green because I think he had a much better year than most give him credit for, but for all the extra minutes he had over Smith, he finished the season with a whopping 1 single even strength point more than Smith... I know a lot of people don't think Smith has "earned" power-play time, but I think his point totals would double and the power-play would be more dangerous with Smith on one of the units...

This is a classic case of numbers without context. Nobody except a few fans think Smith is any good. Certainly he didn't stand out as a good possession guy, which partly led to his being benched for a good long while. He is certainly not a top four guy or a high level league player. If he was he wouldn't be so widely considered a disappointment.

There's something the numbers are missing. Because when he's on the ice he doesn't make smart decisions, doesn't do much more than crash the net. About all he can do is occasionally play keep away with the puck in his own end. He certainly doesn't make the team on the ice better when he's out there, except for his rare good stretches which are followed by a return to has natural sub-par play.

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krsmith17    7,191

krsmith17
Posted

Obviously he didn't "stand out" as a good possession guy, or in any other positive way to those that continuously look for the negative in his game...

Your opinion based on the ol' eye ball test against my opinion based on numbers and stats... You're right, you win... :rolleyes:

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