Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

[Detroit # 1 Fan 2,204]

Jared Coreau has re-signed...dump jimmy.

It's a two year deal, first year is 2-way and the second year is one way. He'll be the back up for the 17-18 season.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

It's a two year deal, first year is 2-way and the second year is one way. He'll be the back up for the 17-18 season.

That just means he'll get paid more to be in GR

[Hockeymom1960 5,107]

Hypothetical trade:

Tatar + Nyquist + DeKeyser + Mantha + Ouellet FOR Landeskog + Barrie.

Yes? No? Maybe so?

Interesting.

[VM1138 1,921]

These charts aren't ridiculous. Of course they aren't the be-all, end-all, and shouldn't be the only thing used to evaluate players, but they are a very important tool. Just like you shouldn't just use point totals as an indicator of a players worth, or the eye-test, you shouldn't just use these HERO charts or any other single variation of data.

All of these advanced analytics are very new to a lot of people, and if you don't understand them, they can be pretty intimidating at first. I don't think it's a big deal if you don't understand them, but it is a problem if you flat out refuse to understand them. And I know for a fact there are some on here that will do whatever they can to avoid this "nonsense". Unfortunately for them, this nonsense is growing more and more, and soon enough you'll have to adapt with it. To me, it's really no different than when shots on goal started being tracked, or hits, or blocked shots. It's just a new way of tracking stats...

By the way, this isn't meant directly against you, nyquististhefuture, just at anyone that may not like these charts and advanced stats...

It's not that we don't understand them or are intimidated by them. It's that the numbers don't hold up unless they are properly contextualized. Any statistician would tell you the same thing but these analytic fans don't realize that. Plus they love to talk down to the rest of us, which added together makes us long time hockey fans disregard most things stats fans say.

I think we have to have a combination. If the stats seem way off the mark (like Smith being better than Lidstrom) we can't just blindly accept them. There's room for intuition, observation and stats, taken altogether.

[ToastyWing 15]

Apologies if this is the wrong thread for a trade thought - but with the seemingly surplus of Forwards currently signed, the logical move for Holland going forward would be to package some of them in trade to land a top pairing Defenseman. Last week I would have thought getting a top end guy would have been impossible, however the Subban trade made me question things, so I was wondering what you think it would take for the Wings to land Karlsson from the Sens?

According to an article written in April, no Senators player is safe - including Karlsson.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/GARTHS-CORNER/Karlsson-On-The-Trade-Block/6/76279

This could just be a ploy by the new GM to put his team 'on notice' but assuming Karlsson really IS available, what would the price be?

My first thought would be Nyquist + Svechnikov + Marchenko + 2017 1st Rd Pick for Karlsson.

Would this be enough? Would this trade make the Wings better? It would essentially be two 1st round picks (Svechnikov being last years 1st) + Marchenko/Nyquist, for a top 3 D-man in the league.

(Again sorry if this is wrong area to post question - just thought it was interesting, even though its likely a pipe dream)

[krsmith17 7,191]

VM, the numbers absolutely do hold up if you understand what they represent. Like I said, they're not the be-all, end-all, so unless you're using other stats, they're obviously going to give you a flawed outlook. No different if you only used +/- to determine a players worth. And no, they don't say that Smith is better than Lidstrom, that's just ridiculous. Like any single stat alone doesn't tell the whole story, this is no different. No one would suggest that Smith was better last season than Lidstrom was in 2010-11 (when he won his 7th Norris Trophy), based on there +2, -2 ratings, would they? So why would anyone suggest Smith is better than Lidstrom based on corsi numbers? That argument makes zero sense...

[TheXym 2,606]

Apologies if this is the wrong thread for a trade thought - but with the seemingly surplus of Forwards currently signed, the logical move for Holland going forward would be to package some of them in trade to land a top pairing Defenseman. Last week I would have thought getting a top end guy would have been impossible, however the Subban trade made me question things, so I was wondering what you think it would take for the Wings to land Karlsson from the Sens?

According to an article written in April, no Senators player is safe - including Karlsson.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/GARTHS-CORNER/Karlsson-On-The-Trade-Block/6/76279

This could just be a ploy by the new GM to put his team 'on notice' but assuming Karlsson really IS available, what would the price be?

My first thought would be Nyquist + Svechnikov + Marchenko + 2017 1st Rd Pick for Karlsson.

Would this be enough? Would this trade make the Wings better? It would essentially be two 1st round picks (Svechnikov being last years 1st) + Marchenko/Nyquist, for a top 3 D-man in the league.

(Again sorry if this is wrong area to post question - just thought it was interesting, even though its likely a pipe dream)

While I agree that a trade for a Dman is likely in the works, I wouldn't give much credence to what you read on hockey buzz. Eklund is notorious for being a less than stellar source.

[Internet.Unknown 422]

what glowing puck?

Did you intentionally black out the memory of it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grOttsHuuzE

Bah, posted very late to the party.

Edited July 6, 2016 by Internet.Unknown

[NerveDamage 4,176]

Did you intentionally black out the memory of it?

Bah, posted very late to the party.

a tad bit late"..." but yeah, I see why people would like to black it out. haha

Edited July 6, 2016 by NerveDamage

[NerveDamage 4,176]

DRW development camp walthrough

https://www.periscope.tv/DetroitRedWings/1YqKDVeWdkOJV

[ToastyWing 15]

While I agree that a trade for a Dman is likely in the works, I wouldn't give much credence to what you read on hockey buzz. Eklund is notorious for being a less than stellar source.

Ha - ya I've been a long time lurker on these boards and noticed that Eklund is routinely called out for being unreliable. I just added the article for some additional context - I am more curious what everyone thinks it would realistically take to trade for an elite D-man. Its been a long time since Holland has made a bold move, and trading for Karlsson (or a player similar to him) would be just that.

I personally think that this team would be much better off if they were to somehow secure an Elite Defenseman who can move the puck and make good/crisp passes, than they would be if they kept the D Corps the same (or made a slight upgrade) and had brought in an elite Forward (IE Stamkos). Obviously signing Stamkos would have been preferable because he wouldn't cost any assets, but if TB suddenly put Stamkos and Hedman on the trading block (which isnt happening, just a theoretical) I think that the Wings would be better off trading assets to acquire Hedman, as he has the ability to help the entire team/make several players 'better'.

[kickazz 5,459]

It's not that we don't understand them or are intimidated by them. It's that the numbers don't hold up unless they are properly contextualized. Any statistician would tell you the same thing but these analytic fans don't realize that. Plus they love to talk down to the rest of us, which added together makes us long time hockey fans disregard most things stats fans say.

I think we have to have a combination. If the stats seem way off the mark (like Smith being better than Lidstrom) we can't just blindly accept them. There's room for intuition, observation and stats, taken altogether.

"Us long time hockey fans"? You think using stats and being a long time hockey fan are mutually exclusive? Stats are being used by the NHL coaches and management who have been in the business for decades. It was invented by "long time hockey fans" themselves.

Meet the guy who invented the corsi stats. He's 62 years old. Currently the goalie coach for the Blues. Former hockey player himself

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Corsi_(ice_hockey)

Perhaps it's not the stats and people who look into it that's the issue but rather the people who completely disregard it and play ignorant to Information.

It's quite simple. When someone makes claims that a player is "bad" just because he says he is, people are going to pull out stats to prove them wrong. The whole "stats" movement started BECAUSE people come up with nonsense claims about players being "really good" or "really bad" just because they have an issue with said player or try to overrate a player.

And now that there's stats around to prove otherwise, all of a sudden it's "well the stats are wrong".

This reminds me of the stories of scientists proving the earth isn't the center of the solar system rather the Sun is. Of course the Church thought it was blasphemy because "eye ball tests told them the earth was the center of everything"

These stats are only meant to serve as supplemental information. It's not black and white.

Edited July 6, 2016 by kickazz

[e_prime 1,936]

I dunno why you guys bother with all the numbers and stuff when you've got two infallible, live action stat-taking, intangible-measuring, highlight-reel making machines locked up in your skull. Flowcharts and spreadsheets? BAH!

These stats are only meant to serve as supplemental information. It's not black and white.

These babies see in full technicolor and they wants to see a new shiny defenseman!!!

Edited July 6, 2016 by e_prime

[DickieDunn 2,571]

The problem with advanced stats is they don't always take into account the sheltered minutes some people play.

[kickazz 5,459]

Imo it's better to use them when comparing two equal players. For instance comparing Nyquist vs Tatar or Kopitar vs Toews. You wouldn't want to compare Smith to Lidstrom because it wouldn't be a fair comparison given one played 28 minutes a night while the other plays 15 or less. It's also a good way to see how a player contributed to his team.

Edited July 6, 2016 by kickazz

[VM1138 1,921]

Well this is going nowhere. These arguments always devolve into an all or nothing approach. Throw in a lot of misinterpretations and you got yourself a show. This forum gets worse and worse each year.

[krsmith17 7,191]

Dickie, the problem with that theory is that stats do exactly that. They are precisely how you account for the minutes an individual player is playing. There are stats out there for virtually everything you want / need to know in a hockey game. The problem is finding and using the appropriate information to assess a player. Of course you use your eyes to view the game as well, but using only your eyes is what causes a major bias...

Edited July 6, 2016 by krsmith17

[e_prime 1,936]

Well this is going nowhere. These arguments always devolve into an all or nothing approach. Throw in a lot of misinterpretations and you got yourself a show. This forum gets worse and worse each year.

...or jokes. Don't forget jokes.

Sure. There are certainly those that take the all or nothing approach to either stats or no stats and of course there is misrepresentations/interpretations of stats, just as there are for eye-ball tests. Using everything that you've got to analyze your players -- everything from eyeballs to spreadsheets -- and using that analysis to win is how you reach your end goal -- the Cup.

[Jesusberg 1,256]

I think advanced stats have their place, but they're not the be-all, end-all in determining a player's value (as some writers/bloggers suggest). My biggest issue is when they're used to ride-out a narrative regarding a specific, "sheltered" player (ie: this guy is the best player on this team, just look at this chart). Often times, the chart/graphs leave out information regarding quality of competition, quality of teammates, zone information, etc. Not to mention, Corsi and Fenwick don't account for shot quality.

They're a good indicator of success over the long haul - the more data, the better (obviously). To me, I think analytics are more useful for comparing higher-end players. Guys who are deployed against the best players and play big minutes. It gives a bit of a clearer picture, then you can kind of tinker with the other variables. Sure, you can use them to suggest that a guy might deserve more minutes, but he needs to play in those situations to figure out if he can actually thrive in that role.

TL;DR: Advanced stats don't paint the whole picture, but are still a part of it. It's all about context.

Edited July 6, 2016 by Jesusberg

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

Yes, because actually judging them by what you see is for old geezers who think dial up Internet is advanced technology.

Nice one

You can't simpy tell if a player is good just by looking at analytics

Edited July 6, 2016 by nyqvististhefuture

[Aethernum 276]

This could just be a ploy by the new GM to put his team 'on notice' but assuming Karlsson really IS available, what would the price be?

My first thought would be Nyquist + Svechnikov + Marchenko + 2017 1st Rd Pick for Karlsson.

Would this be enough? Would this trade make the Wings better? It would essentially be two 1st round picks (Svechnikov being last years 1st) + Marchenko/Nyquist, for a top 3 D-man in the league.

The starting point on our end for any trade involving Karlsson is going to be Larkin. Something like Larkin + Marchenko + two first round picks (2017 and 2018) would be the asking price, I would guess.

[e_prime 1,936]

Nice one

You can't simpy tell if a player is good just by looking at analytics

You also can't "simply look" at a player and tell if they are good.

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

These charts aren't ridiculous. Of course they aren't the be-all, end-all, and shouldn't be the only thing used to evaluate players, but they are a very important tool. Just like you shouldn't just use point totals as an indicator of a players worth, or the eye-test, you shouldn't just use these HERO charts or any other single variation of data.

All of these advanced analytics are very new to a lot of people, and if you don't understand them, they can be pretty intimidating at first. I don't think it's a big deal if you don't understand them, but it is a problem if you flat out refuse to understand them. And I know for a fact there are some on here that will do whatever they can to avoid this "nonsense". Unfortunately for them, this nonsense is growing more and more, and soon enough you'll have to adapt with it. To me, it's really no different than when shots on goal started being tracked, or hits, or blocked shots. It's just a new way of tracking stats...

By the way, this isn't meant directly against you, nyquististhefuture, just at anyone that may not like these charts and advanced stats...

You think hakan Anderson used advanced analytics when he got us zetterberg and datsyuk? Holmstrom etc....

He used his eyes , saw the potential , saw the stick handling with his eyes, the playmaking, a players hustle and determination .... Charts don't tell you that stuff ... A players circumstance , mediocre linemates , lack of point totals playing on a bad team (and it doesn't mean just because someone has lot of points it means they are a good player ) etc...

Could some of these stats be useful ? Sure but they shouldn't determine whether or not you go after a player

[kickazz 5,459]

Apparently meeting halfway doesn't happen anymore. This is pointless.

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

You also can't "simply look" at a player and tell if they are good.

Not after one game ... That's why scouts watch multiple games

Pretty sure they arent carrying charts with them

Edited July 6, 2016 by nyqvististhefuture