Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

[kickazz 5,459]

Dickie wasn't talking about points. Fowler led the Ducks in ice time per game. And for the record, the Ducks only scored 6 more goals than the Wings.

Let's not try to nitpick points here. Who was the top powerplay team in the league last year? Our offense was bad. Anaheim's was better overall and the best on special teams. 17 of Fowlers 28 points came on Anaheim's PP.

Now bring him to the Red Wings version of 2015/16 PP and I'd like to see how his numbers would then be. Fowler is being overrated. He's not that good. Giving up our best assets for mediocrity is pointless when it won't really make a big enough impact.

Maybe there was a point where I thought bringing Fowler in would be a good idea, but I've shifted my opinion on the matter after looking into his numbers and what we would have to give up.

Edited September 3, 2016 by kickazz

[Buppy 1,720]

Let's not try to nitpick points here. Who was the top powerplay team in the league last year? Our offense was bad. Anaheim's was better overall and the best on special teams. 17 of Fowlers 28 points came on Anaheim's PP.

Now bring him to the Red Wings version of 2015/16 PP and I'd like to see how his numbers would then be. Fowler is being overrated. He's not that good. Giving up our best assets for mediocrity is pointless when it won't really make a big enough impact.

Maybe there was a point where I thought bringing Fowler in would be a good idea, but I've shifted my opinion on the matter after looking into his numbers and what we would have to give up.

Ok, their PP scored 6 more goals than ours.

Point is he was a key player on a good team. If he was good enough for them, he's good enough for us. Doesn't mean anyone thinks he would solve all our problems, or even that he's the best possible option. But to say he's "mediocre" is silly.

Even if Nyquist/Tatar are our best assets, it doesn't mean we can get anything better for them. Realistically, neither by themselves would even get you anyone as good as Fowler. Adding something extra with them isn't going to get an elite player, even if there was one available. We certainly have the potential to replace them from within, so it's possible we wouldn't even miss them. So what are you saving them for? WPG would likely want a different type of package. Sakic has denied that Barrie is or ever really was available. StL reportedly wants a top-6 center. Aside from maybe going after a different Anaheim d-man, I don't think there's likely to be any better potential opportunity.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

1) Dekeyser, Mrazek, and Larkin are the Wings' best assets, nobody is suggesting trading one of them for Fowler.

2) unless you truly believe AA is going to consistently score 60+ a year, a guy like Fowler is going to be more valuable especially with the lack of high ended prospects in the system.

[kickazz 5,459]

1) Dekeyser, Mrazek, and Larkin are the Wings' best assets, nobody is suggesting trading one of them for Fowler.

2) unless you truly believe AA is going to consistently score 60+ a year, a guy like Fowler is going to be more valuable especially with the lack of high ended prospects in the system.

By assets, in this case I was alluding to the best of our prospect pool. So Mantha, AA, Svetchnikov. Which we would have to give up. If so, then it should be for someone who can legitimately make an significant impact for us. But if not, then someone who can at the very least have the higher potential (I've already said I think Trouba has the higher potential than Fowler given the differnces in their age and favorable numbers for Trouba in many of the stats). Resorting to Fowler and giving up the best trade asset doesn't sound like a solution to me. To me that sounds like going for the least best option (assuming Trouba is an option btw).

Edited September 3, 2016 by kickazz

[kickazz 5,459]

Ok, their PP scored 6 more goals than ours.

Point is he was a key player on a good team. If he was good enough for them, he's good enough for us. Doesn't mean anyone thinks he would solve all our problems, or even that he's the best possible option. But to say he's "mediocre" is silly.

Even if Nyquist/Tatar are our best assets, it doesn't mean we can get anything better for them. Realistically, neither by themselves would even get you anyone as good as Fowler. Adding something extra with them isn't going to get an elite player, even if there was one available. We certainly have the potential to replace them from within, so it's possible we wouldn't even miss them. So what are you saving them for? WPG would likely want a different type of package. Sakic has denied that Barrie is or ever really was available. StL reportedly wants a top-6 center. Aside from maybe going after a different Anaheim d-man, I don't think there's likely to be any better potential opportunity.

Lol 6 more goals on 24 less chances; 5% better PP percent, rank 1 vs 18. Like I said, you're nitpicking here. Anyways, whether or not it's "silly" to call Fowler mediocre, it doesn't change the fact that the trade would likely be a high risk, low reward scenario. If a trade happens to get a top D-man, it will be costly for us. And the way I see it, whatever move we make it likely will be a one time thing. I don't see Holland making more than one impactfull trade (if that).

So make it count.

Edited September 3, 2016 by kickazz

[DickieDunn 2,571]

#2 D>2nd line center

[kliq 3,755]

I've constantly said Larkin is the closest thing the Wings have to become a number 1 center. If not overhyping him is being pessimistic so be it. Never ever did I claim to be an expert but I know what type of players I prefer and if I want to look deeper in it, where to find their goals, assists and whatever.

Well it's not my fault that Holland decided to trade Chychrun away, he would have instantly been the best defensive prospect the Wings have and something that would have been much needed. Just watch him develop and you will see why I believe the Wings made a mistake trading the pick, as did a lot of other teams by not taking him.

Saying that someone is not at the same level, doesn't mean I'm pessimistic it means I'm looking at things rationally. Eichel as great as he is isn't on McDavid level (that guy is just ridiculous), does that mean that Eichel is bad? Heck no, same goes for Larkin there is no shame in maybe not becoming as good as Eichel. Mrazek played one heck of a first half but then really fall of. I'm not going to hype any young goaltender as the next Vezina winner or whatever ridiculous expectations some people are having. And like I've already said I HOPE you are right and Larkin becomes as good as Eichel that would be awesome but I think expecting it is setting yourself up for disappointment, this season will be very telling...I just hope the Wings continue to let him develop at a slow pace instead of making him the number 1 center alredy. If people think Mrazek might be a Vezina winner in the making fine, I think they are setting themselves up for dissapointment.

As far as liking players: well did I ever say a bad word about Dekeyser? I'm one of the few people who thought he has been our best defenseman and yet he gets blamed for not being offensive enough...

There is no shame in not being as good as Eichel, just as there is no shame in not being as good as Larkin. My point from the beginning is that you have created a narrative that Eichel is worlds better then Larkin right now, but statistically speaking he has not accomplished anything more then Larkin with the exception of 10 assists. At this point, I consider them at the same level. Which one out performs the other moving forward, I dont know, but up to this point I dont think either has out performed the other.

Your Mrazek comment is exactly what I am talking about, any time you talk about a youngwing, there is always a negative tone to it. You dont have to think he is going to be a vezina winner, but why the need to try to talk him down?

I never mentioned DD.

[jimmyemeryhunter 2,747]

I've been reading through this thread for close to an hour and I'm still not caught up...

[Buppy 1,720]

Lol 6 more goals on 24 less chances; 5% better PP percent, rank 1 vs 18. Like I said, you're nitpicking here. Anyways, whether or not it's "silly" to call Fowler mediocre, it doesn't change the fact that the trade would likely be a high risk, low reward scenario. If a trade happens to get a top D-man, it will be costly for us. And the way I see it, whatever move we make it likely will be a one time thing. I don't see Holland making more than one impactfull trade (if that).

So make it count.

Call it nitpicking if you want, but the fact is their offense wasn't much better than ours. Two years ago, we had one of the top PPs and the Ducks were near the bottom. A handful of bounces over the course of a season can make what looks like a big difference. Ducks offense may be better than ours, but not by a whole lot.

And I don't think the trade would be high risk (though I guess it depends on the specifics of the deal). With the forwards we have, PP and prime-scoring-line time is already going to be tough to spread out, and that's without including AA, Mantha, Jurco, or Pulkkinen. We can't possibly use all the skilled forwards we already have. I think the chances would be reasonably good that we could replace one of Nyquist/Tatar even without considering the benefits from gaining Fowler.

I'd agree that there wouldn't likely be more than one big trade (at least in the near future), but if we're not a good fit for any of the other rumored deals I don't think it matters. Pretty much Ducks or nothing I think (or someone worse than Fowler even). Or blind hope that something better materializes.

I wouldn't give up Nyquist/Tatar plus a top prospect, or give up AA for any of the rumored guys since we're not that strong at center looking ahead. And as far as Ducks defensemen, I think Vatanen might be cheaper and a better fit for us. But I certainly wouldn't just dismiss an opportunity to land Fowler.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

You have Larkin and Nielsen at 1-2 for centers for the next few years, they don't need AA there nearly as much as they need a good defenseman.

Edited September 3, 2016 by DickieDunn

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Detroit doesn't have the money or the draft picks needed to do an offer sheet, even if Holland wanted to waste his time

[krsmith17 7,191]

To not be willing to give up a second line winger for a number two defenseman, given the situation we're in is ridiculous. We have a surplus of middle six forwards (way too many) and only one capable top pair defenseman. I'd much prefer Trouba (he'd be my number one target) but Fowler would be a decent option as well. The cost to get Fowler is also significantly less than the cost to get Trouba. As much as I want to pry him out of Winnipeg, I agree that there's not really a fit there, unless Cheveldayoff gets desperate. Winnipeg are looking for a defenseman coming back the other way, so unless they have any interest in a package including one of our mediocre defense prospects, I don't see it happening. Anaheim on the other hand, want a top six, scoring winger, which we have available. If Nyquist or Tatar straight up gets us Fowler, I'd do it, and again, I think you'd be foolish not to.

Number two defenseman > second line winger.

In my opinion, the points lost on either Nyquist or Tatar would be made up by the addition of Fowler and whoever fills their spot in the top 6.

Bottom line, we need help on the back end, and Holland needs to start addressing some needs...

[LeftWinger 4,951]

I'd do the offer sheet, or just offer them a 1st, 3rd and a prospect D in trade. I'd still be ok with sending Mantha if we had to. But unless they are willing to match a 6 year deal with a full NMC, then all they'll get in return is a 1st and 3rd, so you may as well field some offers that may be a bit more lucrative for them.

Mantha, XO, 1st, 3rd gets the job done and Winnipeg would be retarded not to take that deal. Sign Trouba to a 1 or2 year hometown deal until cap opens up when Howard is dealt with and then give him the 8 year $6M- $7M deal. Simple.

Holland should be looking for the shock and awe walk off home run and trying to land both these guys. He has the extra assets to do it and it's not like those assets aren't something that a team can't use. Nyquist and Smith gets you Fowler all day, every day. If you have your throw a pick in, so be it. With our prospects and acquiring 22 and 24 year old top 4 defensemen, we wouldn't miss a few picks.

[LeftWinger 4,951]

No matter what, when your D lineup is

DD- Trouba

Fowler - Green

Kronwall -Marchenko

(Ericsson while Kronwall is injured)

it's a much better lineup than we have now.

Stop kicking Kenny, it's time to acquire to players to make your team better. Knock it out of the park.

Of course then you protect DD, Trouba and Fowler come expansion.

Edited September 3, 2016 by LeftWinger

[LeftWinger 4,951]

Before anyone says Trouba wouldn't do the hometown deal to save cap for a season or two, he most certainly would. Sure he wants to get paid, but it is known that he wants you be a bigger part of a team. Not only would he be playing in his hometown, he would most certainly get top minutes and top PP time he is wanting. Why wouldn't he take a one or two year deal at Smith money then get his 8 year deal? Only fear of injury would deter him, but you cannot be afraid to play.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Before anyone says Trouba wouldn't do the hometown deal to save cap for a season or two, he most certainly would. Sure he wants to get paid, but it is known that he wants you be a bigger part of a team. Not only would he be playing in his hometown, he would most certainly get top minutes and top PP time he is wanting. Why wouldn't he take a one or two year deal at Smith money then get his 8 year deal? Only fear of injury would deter him, but you cannot be afraid to play.

What evidence do you have that he'd take less money here?

I'd do the offer sheet, or just offer them a 1st, 3rd and a prospect D in trade. I'd still be ok with sending Mantha if we had to. But unless they are willing to match a 6 year deal with a full NMC, then all they'll get in return is a 1st and 3rd, so you may as well field some offers that may be a bit more lucrative for them.

Mantha, XO, 1st, 3rd gets the job done and Winnipeg would be retarded not to take that deal. Sign Trouba to a 1 or2 year hometown deal until cap opens up when Howard is dealt with and then give him the 8 year $6M- $7M deal. Simple.

Holland should be looking for the shock and awe walk off home run and trying to land both these guys. He has the extra assets to do it and it's not like those assets aren't something that a team can't use. Nyquist and Smith gets you Fowler all day, every day. If you have your throw a pick in, so be it. With our prospects and acquiring 22 and 24 year old top 4 defensemen, we wouldn't miss a few picks.

Didn't they trade picks for next summer? A team has to have their own picks available in order to make an offer sheet

[LeftWinger 4,951]

What evidence do you have that he'd take less money here?

Didn't they trade picks for next summer? A team has to have their own picks available in order to make an offer sheet

Of course nobody but Trouba himself knows what he'll do, but the fact that he has said he wants a guaranteed larger role on the team is almost more important than how much money, I'm am just saying that given he would be absolutely guaranteed those top minutes and role here, plus being his hometown team, where he would enjoy playing, he may do what he could to help. He is sub $1M right now, if given about $3M for a year to fit under our cap, then reward, or thank him (you know how Holland repays loyalty) for tgat gesture, give him the 8 year $50M+ contract with a NMC. It only be a small contract until cap opens next season.

Regarding picks, yes, you're right, but you could offer the 1st (ours) and the 3rd (from TOR) in trade along with Mantha and XO to make it a very lucrative offer over and above what they'd receive if they didn't match an offer. Not unless a lottery team tenders an offer sheet, then the 1st rounder would be super valuable. But would a lottery team give up a possible 1st overall for Trouba? Maybe, but I wouldnt.

Edited September 3, 2016 by LeftWinger

[frankgrimes 1,836]

The boys from Illegal Curve speculated that Trouba is looking for 56 million and more playtime. To me that means 8 years 7 per..which is a very real for a guy with all the talent in the world

The elite guys simply aren't available and even if they were looking at the pieces the wings wouldn't have the pieces.

It's not that Tatar and Nyquist are bad players far from it but they are also the best established forward assets that the Wings have. I don't think either one returns Fowler but if you add another solid prospect plus a pick maybe that gets Murray's attention. This is not a defense who's gm can afford to wait for better prices, if the Wings go into the season without Kronwall than that's even a bigger problem.

I'm more than sure Trouba would cost Larkin plus, which would mean fix the defense but have another hole at center.Whether that's worth it or not is up for debate But something needs to happen and time is running out. I think people have to get rid of the hometown discount idea..It's not a players job to manage the cap that's the job of the GM and the cap magicians

Edited September 3, 2016 by frankgrimes

[kickazz 5,459]

Lol if you think Nyquist or Tatar get you Fowler. The package will include a top prospect at the very least. Ya'll are acting like the Wings are the only team that can offer a 2nd line Winger (in our case 3rd line wingers who happened to underproduce). There's teams that will throw that in and much more just to outbid the Wings. Holland wouldn't budge if that's the case. And I'd agree with him.

Edited September 3, 2016 by kickazz

[krsmith17 7,191]

Lol at saying that Fowler is only a second pair defenseman and then saying that a top six winger isn't equal value. Even if it's not quite equal, it certainly wouldn't take "a top prospect at the very least"... Anaheim have made it very clear that they're looking for a top six forward, they also don't have room for all their up and coming defensemen. Much like we need a top pair defenseman and we don't have room for all our up and coming forwards...

[kickazz 5,459]

Lol at saying that Fowler is only a second pair defenseman and then saying that a top six winger isn't equal value. Even if it's not quite equal, it certainly wouldn't take "a top prospect at the very least"... Anaheim have made it very clear that they're looking for a top six forward, they also don't have room for all their up and coming defensemen. Much like we need a top pair defenseman and we don't have room for all our up and coming forwards...

I mean I guess you can "Lol" if you don't understand the concept. It's simple. There's a lack of available defenseman in the league. No one is trading their 1D that's actually a quality 1D. We have Fowler available, maybe Trouba, very unlikely that Barrie is but there's a chance. There will be a bidding war if Anaheim proceeds to trying to trade him. Plenty of trade partners for Anaheim, not many for Detroit. But you know, if you want to live the dream then do so. We all know Jurco's going to be a top six winger. And Pulkinnen is going to be a stud. And Smith will be the next Lidstrom.

Edited September 3, 2016 by kickazz

[DickieDunn 2,571]

First, not everyone wants to play close to where they grew up. Second, even if he wanted to, that downy mean he'd take much less.

Of course, he could also be telling Winnipeg that he wants that much to force their hands, which would be good because giving him anywhere close to $7 or 8 mil right now is ludicrously risky.

[kickazz 5,459]

I don't think 20-25 goals for a player like Mantha is overhyping at all. That's a very realistic expectation in my opinion. No one is saying he would do this next year, but in 2-3 years time? Absolutely.

You think that predicting that a player can score 20-25 goals is predicting that they will be "great"? 105 players did that or better last season, 92 the year before. 20-25 goals is good production, not great, and I don't think it's at all far fetched to think that Mantha will be a good player...

There's a lot of strawman going on here. His issue has been that people have overestimated GR players. In reality he may be doing the same exact thing for Mantha. I don't know what Mantha will score because he's not even played a significant amount of games in the NHL yet. So yes it is far-fetched to predict he will score 20-25 goals in the NHL level, because AHL doesn't translate to NHL and we've seen it time and again. Years ago I (and number9) called it and said it's far-fetched to predict Pulkinen would score anywhere close to the goals people were predicting of him. I remember getting a lot of heat for it. And now I see the same people talking about throwing Pulkinen in a trade. Something that would have been blasphemy 2 years ago.

I'm not sure why you feel the need to defend Mantha anyways. I mean Mantha could score 40 goals and I'd be ecstatic. My point was that it's hypocritical to point out others for hyping up GR players or 20 year olds (Larkin, AA) when someone does the same exact thing for Mantha. 20-25 goals would be a leading scorer on our team. That's hyping it up. Nothing wrong with it. But if someone is going to rag on others about making predictions for other players then it's hypocritical if they do the same.

Edited September 3, 2016 by kickazz

[DickieDunn 2,571]

No, predicting a guy who scored a ton in juniors and has done ok in the AHL could score 20 goals in the NHL is not overhyping him, unless saying AA is for sure a second line center is too.

[krsmith17 7,191]

I understand that you think Fowler is a "mediocre" defenseman, but mock the idea that he could be traded for a top six winger. You point out his advanced stats and I know you're aware of Nyquist' and Tatar's stat lines, but it's hilarious to you to think a deal could get done there...

You're right, if given the opportunity Jurco would be a legit middle six winger, I can't say the same for Pulkkinen, and Smith did break out. He's exactly what I said he would become, a top 4 defenseman (looking at his advanced stats). Keep up the passive aggression though, looks great on you...