signed Drew Miller re-signs... 1 year deal $1.025 million

[krsmith17 7,191]

I don't doubt for a second that there are many lists out there that would support your claim that "Miller is a very good penalty killer"... The problem is, the people that are making those lists, I'm assuming like yourself, are using basic stats to come to that conclusion. What basic stats can you use that indicate a good penalty killer? SH blocked shot? SH takeaways? Is there really anything else other than team PK%?

Once you get into the advanced analytics, that is when you would see a completely different story regarding Miller and his PK prowess... Among our top 5 penalty killers (Helm, Sheahan, Glendening, Abdelkader and Miller) Miller is last in virtually every category, including SH corsi/60, SH fenwick/60, Oppcorsi/60, DZ time/60, scoring chances for/against/60, etc, etc. The point is, while Miller is very good at taking away lanes and blocking shots, that's all he's good at. Others on the team provide a lot more than hard nosed defense on the penalty kill.

To me, Miller is an adequate penalty killer, and terrible at even strength. I would much prefer a player that is good on the penalty kill, but can also provide the team with something 5on5 as well...

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

One year Miller played with some guys with talent he scored 14 goals with no PP time. How many did Helm get the last couple years playing with Datsyuk on the PP?

Helm didn't get much PP time this past year. He was 14th on the team in time per game (12th if you exclude Mantha and Pulkkinen since they didn't play many games).

http://www.foxsports.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings-team-stats?season=2015&seasonType=1&category=ICE+TIME&type=1&position=0

The year before that he was 15th.

Edited June 28, 2016 by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

[krsmith17 7,191]

Dickie, what does offensive output have to do with anything here? Neither Helm or Miller are scorers and no one is claiming they should be. Both should be used in the bottom 6 as shut down guys regardless of what team they play on. Helm however, is at least 3 times more valuable than Miller in my opinion. So I guess a contract somewhere around $3.5M would be fair, and I'd be okay with that, and use Miller as a 13th forward...

[kickazz 5,459]

Look at those 2003 season penalty killers. Maltby, Draper, Shanahan and Zetterberg were primary forwards killing penalties. SHANAHAN of all people eh?. And my mistake on earlier post. It seems Datsyuk didn't start killing penalties until 2006/07 season. He truly was a late bloomer. And 2 years later ends up winning the Selke trophy. Amazing.

http://www.foxsports.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings-team-stats?season=2002&seasonType=1&category=ICE+TIME&type=1&position=0

Edited June 28, 2016 by kickazz

[DatsyukianDekes 2,428]

I don't doubt for a second that there are many lists out there that would support your claim that "Miller is a very good penalty killer"... The problem is, the people that are making those lists, I'm assuming like yourself, are using basic stats to come to that conclusion. What basic stats can you use that indicate a good penalty killer? SH blocked shot? SH takeaways? Is there really anything else other than team PK%?

Once you get into the advanced analytics, that is when you would see a completely different story regarding Miller and his PK prowess... Among our top 5 penalty killers (Helm, Sheahan, Glendening, Abdelkader and Miller) Miller is last in virtually every category, including SH corsi/60, SH fenwick/60, Oppcorsi/60, DZ time/60, scoring chances for/against/60, etc, etc. The point is, while Miller is very good at taking away lanes and blocking shots, that's all he's good at. Others on the team provide a lot more than hard nosed defense on the penalty kill.

To me, Miller is an adequate penalty killer, and terrible at even strength. I would much prefer a player that is good on the penalty kill, but can also provide the team with something 5on5 as well...

Yet in 2014/2015 his stats were:

CF% Rel -Sheahan and Glendening worse

GF/60 - Glendening, Sheahan worse

GA/60 - Helm and Anderson worse

He was never the worse player in any of those advanced stats once in 2014/2015. Last year he was injured so I am not going to measure his stats after playing 35 games.

[LeftWinger 4,961]

He'll be the 14th forward, in the lineup once in awhile.

[Datsyukian-Deke 722]

He'll be the 14th forward, in the lineup once in awhile.

Better than having Andersson in every once in awhile.

[NerveDamage 4,176]

Kick has a point about the great players of not so long ago, but one thing that Draper, Maltby and even SHANAHAN had was..drum roll and awkward pause..., an effing solid defense led by none other than Lidstrom. So yeah if we had a solid defensive core I'd say play Larkin, Nyquist or AA in the pk, but we don't have that as of now.

[krsmith17 7,191]

DatsyukianDekese, are you looking at all ice time or just short-handed ice time? I was under the impression we were just comparing penalty killing ability...

Anyway, here are the numbers I've come up with and it seems to me that Miller has been very underwhelming on the PK pretty much every year when it comes to the advanced stats...

I looked at the past 5 years since I feel that is an appropriate sample size...

2011-12: CF%: 6.9% (7th among 7 forwards)

Helm was 1st with 13.8%, Abdelkader was 6th with 8.1%

2012-13: CF%: 5.3% (6th among 6 forwards)

Datsyuk was 1st with 16.0%, Cleary was 5th with 6.7%

2013-14: CF%: 6.0% (4th among 5 forwards)

Helm was 1st with 17.4%, Glendening (rookie) was 5th with 5.8%

2014-15: CF%: 8.0% (4th among 5 forwards)

Helm was 1st with 19.4%, Glendening was 5th with 7.6%

2015-16: CF%: 5.7% (5th among 6 forwards)

Helm was 1st with 11.9%, Andersson was 6th with 4.5%

Looking at corsi for percentages, you can see two things, Helm is a beast on the PK (most know that anyway), but also that Miller is awful on the PK, aside from blocking shots (which I admit he's great at). We can look at virtually any other advanced stat across the board and he's toward the bottom as well, while Helm is at the top.

Miller is 32 years old and isn't likely to improve on past numbers. And while Helm and Abby aren't that much younger, they are both still on the right side of 30 (29). Glendening is 27 and Sheahan is just 24. Athanasiou hasn't had much PK duty yet, but has been spectacular in the small sample size. He's just 21 years old and has speed to burn. Larkin as well, very small sample size, but was lights out when given the opportunity...

Anyway, like I said right from the beginning, it's not a terrible signing, because I don't believe any player signed at around $1M can be considered a bad signing. I'm just trying to rid this notion that Miller is this god on the penalty kill, because he's really not. There's a reason our penalty kill has been average at best defensively over the past few years, while we're toward the bottom of the league every year in SH goals for. Most other teams play top players on the penalty kill, while we play scrubs that can't do anything but block shots...

[DatsyukianDekes 2,428]

DatsyukianDekese, are you looking at all ice time or just short-handed ice time? I was under the impression we were just comparing penalty killing ability...

Anyway, here are the numbers I've come up with and it seems to me that Miller has been very underwhelming on the PK pretty much every year when it comes to the advanced stats...

I looked at the past 5 years since I feel that is an appropriate sample size...

2011-12: CF%: 6.9% (7th among 7 forwards)

Helm was 1st with 13.8%, Abdelkader was 6th with 8.1%

2012-13: CF%: 5.3% (6th among 6 forwards)

Datsyuk was 1st with 16.0%, Cleary was 5th with 6.7%

2013-14: CF%: 6.0% (4th among 5 forwards)

Helm was 1st with 17.4%, Glendening (rookie) was 5th with 5.8%

2014-15: CF%: 8.0% (4th among 5 forwards)

Helm was 1st with 19.4%, Glendening was 5th with 7.6%

2015-16: CF%: 5.7% (5th among 6 forwards)

Helm was 1st with 11.9%, Andersson was 6th with 4.5%

Looking at corsi for percentages, you can see two things, Helm is a beast on the PK (most know that anyway), but also that Miller is awful on the PK, aside from blocking shots (which I admit he's great at). We can look at virtually any other advanced stat across the board and he's toward the bottom as well, while Helm is at the top.

Miller is 32 years old and isn't likely to improve on past numbers. And while Helm and Abby aren't that much younger, they are both still on the right side of 30 (29). Glendening is 27 and Sheahan is just 24. Athanasiou hasn't had much PK duty yet, but has been spectacular in the small sample size. He's just 21 years old and has speed to burn. Larkin as well, very small sample size, but was lights out when given the opportunity...

Anyway, like I said right from the beginning, it's not a terrible signing, because I don't believe any player signed at around $1M can be considered a bad signing. I'm just trying to rid this notion that Miller is this god on the penalty kill, because he's really not. There's a reason our penalty kill has been average at best defensively over the past few years, while we're toward the bottom of the league every year in SH goals for. Most other teams play top players on the penalty kill, while we play scrubs that can't do anything but block shots...

It was just based off short handed.

Although I get what your saying in regards to putting more skilled players to PK, i just see nothing wrong with having a couple forwards that can score while leaving someone who can block shots on the PK as well. Miller doesn't have to play offense, however we don't have any other players that are willing to block shots like him. As you see from other teams, blocking shots = huge especially in the playoffs.

[e_prime 1,936]

Obligatory "You're my boy, Drew!" Post.

I'm a little surprised at this signing, but I do not bemoan Holland for making it.

Also, it's pretty obvious that most folks rate Miller for what he is. Nobody's over-rating and hardly anyone is under-rating.

It's all in the belief that he either brings or does not bring something to this team -- of which I'm the former.

[krsmith17 7,191]

I agree that shot blocking is important, I just think it's somewhat overstated. There's a reason players like Miller block a ton of shots and players like Athanasiou don't. And no, it's not just balls, it's skill and smarts.

I'm sure Athanasiou would be willing to block shots, and would likely eventually get very good at it. However, players like Athanasiou don't need to rely on their shot blocking ability because they're on top of their man long before they're able to set up for the shot. Speed kills, especially on the penalty kill.

That's why Helm is and has been one of the best penalty killers in the league, that's why Glendening and Sheahan are decent, and that's why Larkin and Athanasiou had great numbers in their short samples. That's also why Miller spends the entire minute he's out there on every penalty kill, chasing and blocking shots...

[kickazz 5,459]

Kick has a point about the great players of not so long ago, but one thing that Draper, Maltby and even SHANAHAN had was..drum roll and awkward pause..., an effing solid defense led by none other than Lidstrom. So yeah if we had a solid defensive core I'd say play Larkin, Nyquist or AA in the pk, but we don't have that as of now.

What does solid D core have to do with the forwards? Those forwards killed penalties because they were good at it.

We lost Lidstrom in 2012, but that didn't stop Babcock from using Z and D on the PK.

Bergeron isn't going to stop killing penalties just because Chara retires.

Larkin is supposed to be a two way center that's compared to Toews. He'll be used on the PK. Trust me. This isn't something I'm "hoping" for, it's just what's going to end up happening (already started with small minutes last season). The only difference is I prefer to train these kids now rather than wait. Which also is the reason why I prefer Z to slide onto the Wing and Larkin into center. Larkin needs the training now.

Edited June 28, 2016 by kickazz

[toby91_ca 620]

Well, D and Z didn't play much on the PK after Lidstrom retired, but I'm sure it's more a function of them getting older than not having a strong D to back them up.

12/13 - D and Z were 3rd and 4th respectively on the team (forwards only) in PK time at 67 and 62 min for the year...leaders are normally around 250-300 min, but this was the shortened lockout year

13/14 - D and Z were 7th and 10th respectively at 32 and 24 min

14/15 - D and Z were 8th and 7th respectively at 6 min each

15/16 - D and Z were 12th and 11th respectively at 5 and 7 min

So, they played a bit as second pairing guys in the 12/13 season, but not much of anything after that.

[kickazz 5,459]

I was talking specifically of the Lidstrom transition year (2013). The drop in PK from then on (2014 and beyond where each only played like 45 games dur to injury) would likely be because of the aging factor but even more so because of slowing down of their speeds. (Back surgery + knee injury for Dats)

Just looked it up. Between 2011/12 season to 2012/13 season, Datsyuk and Zetterberg's shorthanded time per game went UP after Lidstrom retired and then started going down year by year again from 2014 onwards.

http://www.foxsports.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings-team-stats?season=2011&seasonType=1&category=ICE+TIME&type=1&position=0

Edited June 28, 2016 by kickazz

[NerveDamage 4,176]

What does solid D core have to do with the forwards? Those forwards killed penalties because they were good at it.

We lost Lidstrom in 2012, but that didn't stop Babcock from using Z and D on the PK.

Bergeron isn't going to stop killing penalties just because Chara retires.

Larkin is supposed to be a two way center that's compared to Toews. He'll be used on the PK. Trust me. This isn't something I'm "hoping" for, it's just what's going to end up happening (already started with small minutes last season). The only difference is I prefer to train these kids now rather than wait. Which also is the reason why I prefer Z to slide onto the Wing and Larkin into center. Larkin needs the training now.

I thought that the stronger the D the better chance you had to kill it off and/or generate an odd man rush. That was my point about a solid D and with that then you have more flexibility of moving and rotating your forwards in said pk.

I was talking specifically of the Lidstrom transition year (2013). The drop in PK from then on (2014 and beyond where each only played like 45 games dur to injury) would likely be because of the aging factor but even more so because of slowing down of their speeds. (Back surgery + knee injury for Dats)

Just looked it up. Between 2011/12 season to 2012/13 season, Datsyuk and Zetterberg's shorthanded time per game went UP after Lidstrom retired and then started going down year by year again from 2014 onwards.

?

And you don't think they had to rely more on them because our main and stronger D was gone?

[kickazz 5,459]

I thought that the stronger the D the better chance you had to kill it off and/or generate an odd man rush. That was my point about a solid D and with that then you have more flexibility of moving and rotating your forwards in said pk.

And you don't think they had to rely more on them because our main and stronger D was gone?

Precisely, which is why they used the superstars to kill PK in crucial moments. Not 4th line studs.

I envision Larkin being used for crucial moments just like Z and D. He doesn't have to spend 3 minutes a game on PK. He can do 1.5 minutes a game just like those two did. Leave some of the mid game PK minutes for Glendog, Sheahan etc.

Imo use the possession driven PKers to play the steal and chase game in crucial moments. Miller and Glendog are not possession guys and never will be. They're the type that sit and eat up shots hoping they block them. That stuff works 8/10 times true, but say with a 1 goal lead and 3 minutes left to play in a game 7, I'd rather put in the guys that can do more that just sit and take shots, I'd rather take the guys that can cause turn overs and play keep away and run down the clock (Helm, AA and maybe Larkin in future). We saw this all the time with Z and D. While Draper and Maltby were still our major Pkers, D and Z were used in the most crucial moments. In their primes, D and Z made Pk look like it was still a 5 on 5. Their possession was insane.

Edited June 28, 2016 by kickazz

[NerveDamage 4,176]

Precisely, which is why they used the superstars to kill PK in crucial moments. Not 4th line studs.

I envision Larkin being used for crucial moments just like Z and D. He doesn't have to spend 3 minutes a game on PK. He can do 1.5 minutes a game just like those two did. Leave some of the mid game PK minutes for Glendog, Sheahan etc.

Imo use the possession driven PKers to play the steal and chase game in crucial moments. Miller and Glendog are not possession guys and never will be. They're the type that sit and eat up shots hoping they block them. That stuff works 8/10 times true, but say with a 1 goal lead and 3 minutes left to play in a game 7, I'd rather put in the guys that can do more that just sit and take shots, I'd rather take the guys that can cause turn overs and play keep away and run down the clock (Helm, AA and maybe Larkin in future). We saw this all the time with Z and D. While Draper and Maltby were still our major Pkers, D and Z were used in the most crucial moments. In their primes, D and Z made Pk look like it was still a 5 on 5. Their possession was insane.

the only thing I'd say is you're comparing 12-13 with ten years experience D and Z versus a second year Larkin. I wouldn't think they'd be pairing Luke and Miller. I'd paired them along a speedy forward to even it out. I don't think to pair both AA and Larkin in the pk would be a good idea either.

[kickazz 5,459]

A combination of a speedster and Glendog and Miller is a good idea for now. As the young centers get more experience they will likely transition into bigger roles.

[NerveDamage 4,176]

A combination of a speedster and Glendog and Miller is a good idea for now. As the young centers get more experience they will likely transition into bigger roles.

I think re-signing Miller was a must, or at least seen as one, since Helm testing free agency means he's most likely gone

And well, it's only one year in which both Larkin and AA will develop and turn into bigger roles. Your previous posts are right on point, I think.

Edited June 28, 2016 by NerveDamage

[krsmith17 7,191]

I couldn't disagree more with your first sentence there Nerve... I don't think there's ever a situation where signing Drew Miller is a "must"...

[NerveDamage 4,176]

well maybe "must" sounds a bit extreme, I just see it as a move that makes sense. I don't know how they handled it but him taking a one year deal and go to ufa again. so it's not gonna be a huge drag and I don't see it crippling us from going after the big names.

[shocky2002 36]

There should be a new rule: nobody who was a regular for the 2011 Wings should still be on this roster

Edited June 29, 2016 by shocky2002

[Euro_Twins 4,476]

There should be a new rule: nobody who was a regular for the 2011 Wings should still be on this roster

What about lidstrom

[kickazz 5,459]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.wingingitinmotown.com/platform/amp/2016/6/29/12047838/red-wings-re-signing-drew-miller-dampens-hope-for-change?client=safari# Edited June 29, 2016 by kickazz