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Echolalia

Revisiting the 2011 Entry Draft

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Prologue: There has been a lot of ongoing discussion in the 2016 entry draft thread regarding the decisions that Holland and co made or did not make. Some folks think his moves were solid moves and will pay off in the future. Others think that he messed up and he should have did X, Y, and Z. The thing about decisions at the draft is none of us will definitively know the outcome of these decisions until well in the future when we can see see which prospects were home runs, which were busts, and which needed some seasoning but turned into solid acquisitions. I don't know what the accepted timeline is to determine that, but I think by five years we will have a good idea of what kind of player we have. We obviously can't fast forward five years to see how things turn out, but we can rewind five years and revisit what the discussions were regarding the 2011 entry draft. I think this might be a fun thing to do annually, especially because there isn't a whole lot of other exciting things to talk about in the offseason on a hockey forum. That means all your goofy and ridiculous comments are fair game to be quoted five years from now!

Anyway here are the threads for the 2011 entry draft:

1st round pick (24th overall): Traded to Ottawa for 35th and 48th picks

http://www.letsgowings.com/forums/topic/69925-2011-nhl-draft-round-1-discussion/?hl=%2B2011+%2Bdraft

2nd through 7th round picks:

http://www.letsgowings.com/forums/topic/69929-2011-nhl-draft-rounds-2-7-discussion/?hl=%2B2011+%2Bdraft

-2nd round pick (35th overall): Tomas Jurco

-2nd round pick (48th overall): Xavier Ouellet

-2nd round pick (55th overall): Ryan Sproul

-3rd round pick (85th overall): Alan Quine

-4th round pick (115th overall): Marek Tvrdon

-5th round pick (145th overall): Philippe Hudon

-6th round pick (175th overall): Richard Nedomiel

-7th round pick (205th overall): Alexei Marchenko

Some interesting observations:

One poster wanted the Wings to pick Jaime Oleksiak with our first round pick, and projected him as a top 3 NHL defensman (currently part of the Dallas Stars organization but has endlessly bounced back and forth between the AHL and the NHL). He was picked 14th overall, well before our 24th pick, anyway.

There was lots of love for Jurco leading up to our pick (even in the first round).

Opinions were mixed regarding the Wings trading down. Some folks thought it was smart, some folks thought we were better off using our first round pick on a player. It caused a bit of a stir. Today that first round pick is Tomas Jurco and Xavier Ouellete.

There was also lots of love for Joe Morrow, who ended up going to the Pens, who picked 23rd. Hes currently a part of the Bruins organization, and has played 48 games total in the NHL, including 33 last season.

Everyone seemed to love the second round. People were high on Jurco, Ouellete, and Sproul. There was some hope for Saad to be drafted as well.

Some folks believed that Tvrdon and Quine were the steals of the draft.

Something I found particularly entertaining regarding that last bit:

It is hilarious how every draft people on here start going "OMG steal of the year hur hur hur hur" Yeah, I'll see in 5 years how these steals worked out for us.

Go check HFBoards right now and see who they said the steal of the draft was last year, I'll give you a hint It starts with Teemu and ends in Pulkkinen. Check out this years "steal of the draft", I'll give you a hint, his name starts with Marek and ends with Tvrdon.

well here we are.
The knuckle-draggers loved the Nedomiel pick. He had a knack for being a tough stay and home defender, apparently, with lots of fights under his belt.
Folks didn't seem to know how to take the Marchenko pick. Some thought it was a solid pick up considering he was highly ranked in the previous year's draft, but others thought that was a bad sign that he wasn't drafted and taken in the last round by us the following year. There was also some question on whether he would even be interested in coming to the NHL, also.
Anyway, enjoy thumbing through those threads!

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So with out 24th pick Ottawa got Mathew Puempel and with their 35th and 48th picks we got Jurco and Oullet.

I like the decision management made. I like what I saw from Oulette. Jurco has been a "disappointment" but I'd rather have him than Mathew Puempel looking back at it.

Edited by kickazz

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I feel like Ouellet and Sproul could have been with the team the past year or 2 and the defense would not have been any worse than it was. I'm a little disappointed that they haven't had much of a chance to stick in the line up. Especially with how terrible the defense has been at moving the puck. I remember hearing a lot about Tvrdon when he was drafted and in jrs, then pretty much nothing. What happened to him? Did he have a serious injury or something?

Edited by BinMucker94

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Jurco has really been an interesting one to watch. He was kind of everyone's ideal pick that draft, and he had a good amount of success living up to his hype all through his first year or so in the NHL, and then just hit a wall. Now he's stuck in this hockey purgatory where he's trying to reinvent his game while other players pass him on the depth chart.

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Jurco is a prime example of player mismanagement... All the potential in the world and the skills to reach that potential but never put in a position to succeed. I still believe he was brought up to the NHL too quickly and it stunted his growth. If he were seasoned for a year or two longer, I think it would have gone a long way in his development and we would have a completely different player today... Because he was brought up too early, he has struggled and his numbers have been very underwhelming, he'll be lucky if he makes the roster as the 13th forward...

Sproul, I also believe has been mismanaged, but for the opposite reason... He was given plenty (too much) time to season in Grand Rapids, and I think he should have been given more than that one game a couple years ago against St. Louis. He looked very good in that game, and there's no reason he couldn't have been given another look in the past two full seasons in all that time that Marchenko and Ouellet were being called up and sent down... I've always been more impressed with Sproul but especially since he's cleaned up his defensive game. If Holland doesn't figure out this log jam and we end up losing Ouellet, Sproul or even Frk for nothing, I'll be pretty pissed...

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Jurco is a prime example of player mismanagement... All the potential in the world and the skills to reach that potential but never put in a position to succeed. I still believe he was brought up to the NHL too quickly and it stunted his growth. If he were seasoned for a year or two longer, I think it would have gone a long way in his development and we would have a completely different player today... Because he was brought up too early, he has struggled and his numbers have been very underwhelming, he'll be lucky if he makes the roster as the 13th forward...

Sproul, I also believe has been mismanaged, but for the opposite reason... He was given plenty (too much) time to season in Grand Rapids, and I think he should have been given more than that one game a couple years ago against St. Louis. He looked very good in that game, and there's no reason he couldn't have been given another look in the past two full seasons in all that time that Marchenko and Ouellet were being called up and sent down... I've always been more impressed with Sproul but especially since he's cleaned up his defensive game. If Holland doesn't figure out this log jam and we end up losing Ouellet, Sproul or even Frk for nothing, I'll be pretty pissed...

Given your views on Jurco, the mismanagement and the player he is today, I'm curious: would you consider his draft pick a bust or still a good pick? Cuz now we are jumping down a whole new rabbit hole with the idea that a pick can be an absolute gem to draft, but then mismanagement ruins it. At that point would it be better to pick a different player or can we assume a similar process would have crippled anyone else's development in the same position? Interesting to thing about.

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I think it's still too early to call it a "boom" or "bust" pick, but I loved the pick five years ago, and in hindsight, there are only a couple other players I'd possibly pick before him. I think both Boone Jenner and Brandon Saad would have been good picks as well, but would either of them be any better than Jurco at this point in the Wings organization? I'm not so sure... So no, I don't really think either of those guys would have panned out any better than Jurco has. I think it was a good pick, just a terrible job at developing him...

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It's an interesting thought exercise, that's for sure. Ultimately, though, it's a fascinating "what if?" (I used to like those comics from Marvel back in the day, and ended up making a killing on them when I sold them off). There is no real way to prove or disprove the conjecture, and certainly no advanced stats to bring into play.

I agree 100% with krsmith' analysis of the Jurco situation. As far as echo's question, if the only objective way to view a draft pick as bust or not is how the player turns out for that team, then the jury is still out on Jurco (I still hope he puts it together, though he is on my trade bait list, to be honest). As a side thought, Jurco played a role on the Griffins championship and that helped some of the other players from that team in their development, so does that redeem the draft pick from bust status or mitigate the mismanagement factor? Again, it is interesting to think about.

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Another thing I noticed between five years ago and now is the knowledge base of these prospects from a fan's perspective is much broader. In 2011 there seemed to be only a dedicated few who even felt they were knowledgable enough to voice an opinion. This year it seems like many more of these prospects are known throughout the fanbase. Admittedly, I'm still not one of them. The two defensman whom people are debating over taking in this year's draft in the first round are just anonymous blanks in my head right now.

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Yeah it's basically gotten to the point where even the smallest difference in drafted picks brings about an insane amount of blacklash.

We picked a 5'11 guy in the 4th round (just throwing it out there not sure exactly who was picked in 4th) and I immediately saw complaints about "HAHAH there we go picking a midget again!"

In reality we have no idea how they'll turn out. All we can go with is the ranking system given to them by the scouts and analysts. The other thing one can do is look up their prospect videos on youtube and judge for yourself. But even then all you can tell is how that prospect did in the league he played in. We still wouldn't have any idea if he can translate into the NHL level.

Alternatively you could watch the development camp scrimmage and see how the prospects faired against other players. I liked what I saw from a couple of them and if they can translate it into NHL level it would be great. There were a few of then that I felt would be NHL ready in a couple years. But no one knows what's going to happen between now and "a couple years"

If someone asked me who had the best shot of making the team in a few years out of all of our draft picks from this year, I'd probably say Givani Smith. He seemed the most consistent in the development camp videos I saw. But that's not even the main reason, his game is something we lack. He's a big net front presence/powerforward scorers and we basically only one of those (Abdelkader).

Edited by kickazz

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Where exactly is all Jurco's potential? He really can't shoot the puck at all, not a great skater and has never shown any serious playmaking skills

If Jurco is going to turn it around and be an impact player he needs to use his strength. He ha size and can do everything moderately well. The only enormous untapped potential that our coaches have misused is not using him on the shootout to restock his YouTube highlights

Sure Jurco would benefit from playing with better line mates but that's the only thing it would benefit. He just hasn't been able to make plays for two years. Throw Nyquist or Tatar on that same fourth line and theirs a huge difference. Jurco has been bad anybody can see that

Edited by joesuffP

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We picked a 5'11 guy in the 4th round (just throwing it out there not sure exactly who was picked in 4th) and I immediately saw complaints about "HAHAH there we go picking a midget again!"

We picked Alfons Malmström in the 4th, a defenseman who's 6'2 190 pounds, 18 years old. Why are you accusing our backoffice of picking 5'11 midgets?

;-)

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Where exactly is all Jurco's potential? He really can't shoot the puck at all, not a great skater and has never shown any serious playmaking skills

If Jurco is going to turn it around and be an impact player he needs to use his strength. He ha size and can do everything moderately well. The only enormous untapped potential that our coaches have misused is not using him on the shootout to restock his YouTube highlights

Sure Jurco would benefit from playing with better line mates but that's the only thing it would benefit. He just hasn't been able to make plays for two years. Throw Nyquist or Tatar on that same fourth line and theirs a huge difference. Jurco has been bad anybody can see that

I disagree with the first bolded statement - agree with the second. I haven't been all that high on Jurco for awhile, but I think he's got good hands and has worked on his speed. IMO, his biggest issue (that he has control over) is his lack of confidence. He really seems to get down on himself. If I'm remembering correctly, there have been quotes from him about not liking his role, not knowing what else he can do to get more ice time, etc. I think he still has some issues with the timing/pace of the NHL too, which is a problem. At the end of the day, he needs to push the guys in the top-nine group out of the way if he's going to succeed in Detroit.

That said, he hasn't exactly been put in a position to flourish, either. As others have mentioned, playing in a checking-line role doesn't suit him at all. I agree with Jurco needing to use his strength, though. His best bet might be to mold himself into a net-front guy. Abdelkader has his role locked down, but I;m not sold on Helm or Sheahan as NFP players. Either way, he needs to excel in some kind of role in order to gain more chances/trust from Blashill.

This draft had me really excited for a few years. I was pretty stoked about Ouellet, Tvrdon and Sproul (most of all). Kind of a bummer to see the way the situation's panned out.

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I agree kickazz, I f***ing loved the Givani Smith pick, and he's already becoming one of my favorite prospects. He pretty much owned the Red Wings Snapchat account for the week of development camp and it was awesome. I think he and Bertuzzi already have somewhat of a relationship, which is cool to see. He says he molds his game after Wayne Simmonds, and if he can be half the player Simmonds is for Philadelphia, we have a good one on our hands.

joesuff, I'm sure anyone speaking of Jurco's potential are basing it off of what he was able to accomplish before he made the jump (too early) to the NHL. I'm not sure how much you've followed him in the Q or AHL, but he was a beast in both, and he would have absolutely owed the American League if he had stayed down there. By the way, he is a very fluent skater, great passer, unbelievable hands, just lacks power in his shot, which is fine since that has never been his game. He's never going to be the type of player to blaze down the wing and snipe top corner, but he is capable of making plays, and scoring some nice goals. He can't do that, and no, neither would Nyquist or Tatar, in a 4th line checking role with Glendening / Miller / Andersson / Ferraro...

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Filip Hronek the 6 foot lightweight. That's the dude.

I'm just pulling your leg, I agree with your points. But Hronek at 163 pounds as a defenseman picked in the second round is.. (shakes head) set for an uphill climb of weight gaining that is not feasible. This is coming from someone who's been lifting since dinosaurs walked on earth.

Unless he's the second coming of Shayne Gostisbehere (PHI) it's a bad pick in my opinion. Softer rule changes and all.

Edit: Givani Smith a solid pick imo. He'll play with the big club.

Edited by Jacksoni

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I took a quick look at some more numbers from the 2011 draft, specifically how many players drafted that year have gone on to play at least 60 games in the NHL. 60 is an arbitrary number, but I picked it so those players who just last year found their niche in the NHL wouldn't be excluded from the list for only playing in half of the season last year. I would say the vast majority of players who haven't played at least 60 games in the NHL by now likely haven't established themselves in the NHL, and in most cases they probably won't find permanent NHL jobs. I don't know if its the most definitive way to classify someone as a bust as I'm sure there are a handful of players who may still slip through, but its at least one way to do it and for its convenience its what I looked at. ANYWAY:

-In the first round 11 of the 30 players picked have played less than 60 games thus far.

----Colorado's 11th overall pick Duncan Siemans has played 1 NHL game.

----Buffalo's 16th overall pick Joe Armia has played 44 NHL games.

----Chicago's 18th overall pick Mark McNeill has played 1 NHL game.

----Ottawa's 21st overall pick Steven Noesen has played 2 NHL games.

----Toronto's 22rd overall pick Tyler Biggs has played 0 NHL games.

----Pittsburgh's 23rd overall pick Joe Morrow has played 48 NHL games.

----Ottawa's 24th overall pick Matt Puempel has played 39 NHL games.

----Toronto's 25th overall pick Stuart Percy has played 12 NHL games.

----Chicago's 26th overall pick Philip Danault has played 53 NHL games.

----Minnesota's 28th overall pick Zach Phillips has played 0 NHL games.

----Vancouver's 29th overall pick Nicklas Jensen has played 24 NHL games.

Things to note: Players who have established themselves in the NHL by now really thinned out after pick 15. Only 5 of the back 15 have played more than 60 NHL games, whereas 14 of the first 15 have (and many of those are in the 200+ games played range).

11 of 30 players in the second round have played more than 60 NHL games, which is a hair higher than the success rate of the back 15 of the first round (essentially the same rate). In other words, your odds of picking an NHL-calibre-player-by-2016 is essentially the same from pick 15 to pick 60, at least in this draft year. Kudos to Holland for trading one shot in that 33% success range to two shots (for a total of three shots, all in the second round). Holland's personal success in this frame currently mirrors the league: 33% success rate of this three picks between 15 and 60. That is Jurco has played more than 60, and Ouellete and Spoul have played less.

Notable picks in the second round: Brandon Saad at 43rd overall by Chicago Matthew Nieto 47th overall by San Jose, and Nikita Kucherov 58th by Tampa Bay.

5 players from the 3rd round have played more than 60 games: Vincent Trocheck, picked 64th by Florida; Adam Lowry, picked 67th by Winnepeg; Klas Dahlbeck, picked 79th by Chicago; Andy Andreoff picked 80th by Los Angeles; and Nick Shore picked 82nd by Los Angeles.

4 players from the 4th round have played more than 60 games: Jean-Gabriel Pageau picked 96th by Ottawa; Reid Boucher picked 99th by New Jersey; Jonny Gaudreau picked 104th by Calgary; and Tobias Reider picked 114th by Edmonton.

Only Andrew Shaw, picked 139th overall by the Blackhawks, and Nikita Nesterov, picked 148th overall by Tampa Bay have played in more than 60 games from the 5th round.

Josh Manson from Anaheim, picked 160th by Anaheim is the only player from the 6th round.

The 7th round produced four 60+GP players:

-Iiro Pakarinen, 184th Florida

-Jyrki Jokipakka, 195th Dallas

-Alexi Marchenko, 205th Detroit

-Ondrej Palat, 208th Tampa Bay

Overall I'd say Tampa Bay had the most successful draft that year. Chicago also did quite well (although they struck out on both of their first round picks).

source: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2011e.html

Edited by Echolalia

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Quine and Sproul are from Ontario

Hudon and Ouellet are from Quebec. Though Ouellet was born in France he grew up in Quebec.

Didn't you read my post? I said "tough" and "simple names". Not just "North American"

Edited by GMRwings1983

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Didn't you read my post? I said "tough" and "simple names". Not just "North American"

Why, yes, I did read the post. I thought it was clear that I was pointing out that the North American part was not applicable since half the guys are North American. Also, the 4 I listed all have "simple" names.

If you want to augment your criticism of the draft, you could say there weren't enough tough players chosen.

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Didn't you read my post? I said "tough" and "simple names". Not just "North American"

He's saying North Americans we picked aren't tough.

It's true, seems like the old days of tough North American players are winding down. We're getting too soft. Larkin is all skill no toughness. Same with McDavid, Kane, Toews, Eichel jeez so many. Starting to look like toughess and American/Canadan no longer applies in modern day hockey.

McKinnon showed promise when he decided to take Ericsson though.

Should bring that Frenchy Roussel here. He's tougher than our stud Canadian Sheahan :w00t:

Edited by kickazz

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