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Echolalia

Revisiting the 2011 Entry Draft

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Anyways, I think it's fair to assume that our 2011 draft pick from the 7th round has been the most successful thus far.

Seems it really is a lot about luck.

Someone with better statistical analysis abilities should go trough the past 15 drafts and look up probabilities of picking a successful kid in the draft based on when your pick is. In this particular draft it appears there's no difference between picking 16th or 60th. Does that trend hold true in other years? Are there more patterns worth knowing? We may not be able to criticize Holland's specific picks based on success for 3-5 years, but we might be able to develop a clearer picture about his odds of success, and then perhaps even compare his rate vs the league mean.

Someone get on that.

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I was looking at the first round of this draft and overall it seems like a pretty weak draft class. If my memory serves me right, I think Nudge, Landeskog, and Larrson are the 3 biggest names to come from it.

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Why, yes, I did read the post. I thought it was clear that I was pointing out that the North American part was not applicable since half the guys are North American. Also, the 4 I listed all have "simple" names.

If you want to augment your criticism of the draft, you could say there weren't enough tough players chosen.

"Whaddya talkin' about? What about Alex Marshall!? Good old, 6'3, 210lbs Canadian kid. Plays the game the right way. Seventh-round beauty by the Red Wings, I'll tell ya. Does he need to take the body more? Yes. Take the body, Alex!"

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Speaking of Quine:

https://twitter.com/NYIslanders/status/753323784443203584

I was surprised when the Islanders called him up (even moreso when they put him on Tavares' wing), but he's earned himself a two-year deal. Good for him.

Hmmm, didn't know that. He has pretty good numbers in the AHL:

14-15: 75 games: 61 pts.

15-16: 56 games: 48 pts.

He's outproducing Mantha (though Mantha's a year younger) and was 11th in the AHL 14-15. Looks like maybe we messed up by not signing him.

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I'm just pulling your leg, I agree with your points. But Hronek at 163 pounds as a defenseman picked in the second round is.. (shakes head) set for an uphill climb of weight gaining that is not feasible. This is coming from someone who's been lifting since dinosaurs walked on earth.

Unless he's the second coming of Shayne Gostisbehere (PHI) it's a bad pick in my opinion. Softer rule changes and all.

Normally I'd agree with you about the weight gain point, but there are some exceptions to this depending on the player. If I'm not mistaken, both Datsyuk and Zetterberg gained a good amount of weight and maxed out at a good level (around 195 lbs) for their height to maintain their speed.

Best case scenario I see him get upto 185 lbs max. The advantage with these guys is the plethora of training/trainer options they have. Most of it comes down to how committed they are.

edit - yep my Zetty rookie card from 2002 has him listed at 176 pounds. 20 pounds gain looks like.

Edited by kickazz

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Normally I'd agree with you about the weight gain point, but there are some exceptions to this depending on the player. If I'm not mistaken, both Datsyuk and Zetterberg gained a good amount of weight and maxed out at a good level (around 195 lbs) for their height to maintain their speed.

Best case scenario I see him get upto 185 lbs max. The advantage with these guys is the plethora of training/trainer options they have. Most of it comes down to how committed they are.

edit - yep my Zetty rookie card from 2002 has him listed at 176 pounds. 20 pounds gain looks like.

Wasn't Kronwall like 150 when he was drafted?

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Yeah, size should never be the determining factor in drafting, and I'd draft skill over size every time, but I don't like drafting super small players either. Take for example, Alex Debrincat, he's a hell of a hockey player, but at 5'7", I wouldn't have wanted him in the early 2nd round. He could turn out to be the next Martin St. Louis, but it's a lot more likely that he becomes one of the countless other junior phenoms that never make it due to size. Of course he'll become an all-star though since the Hawks drafted him...

I prefer to draft height over weight, because weight / muscle can be gained through proper nutrition / exercise, height is a lot harder after the age of 18...

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Wasn't Kronwall like 150 when he was drafted?

Idk how much these guys weighed when they were drafted. I have their rookie cards from their first season in the NHL.

Kronwall is listed at 165 lbs in his 2003 card, so he had even an larger weight gain of 30 lbs (he also weighs 195lbs).

so theoretically Hronek could get upto the standard 200lbs if he wanted to.

Edited by kickazz

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PVD, I wouldn't necessarily say we messed up not signing Quine, I just think Quine was managed better in New York than he would have been if he were still here. I think Jurco is / was a better hockey player than Quine and if we had kept Quine instead of Jurco, I think Quine would be very underwhelming in our system and Jurco would be tearing it up in New York's system, or wherever he ended up being re-drafted.

As great as this organization is at drafting, I really don't think they've been the best at developing some of these kids the past few years. There are several "fringe" players like Jurco, Pulkkinen, Frk, Ouellet, Sproul, etc. that I believe probably would have been a lot better players right now if they were with another organization. Of course there's no way to prove this, just a personal opinion. Regardless, I don't think Quine was a huge loss for us, nor do I think he's any better than any of the fringe players we currently have, fighting to make this team this season...

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I recall being excited with some of the picks the Wings made in 2011. Alas, five years later my heart is heavy with disappointment that Jurco, Sproul, and Ouellet haven't been able to contribute in the NHL. And Quine not being signed and subsequently re-drafted by the Isles while the Wings signed Richard Nedomlel is just a head scratcher.

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On 7/11/2016 at 10:30 PM, Echolalia said:

Prologue: There has been a lot of ongoing discussion in the 2016 entry draft thread regarding the decisions that Holland and co made or did not make. Some folks think his moves were solid moves and will pay off in the future. Others think that he messed up and he should have did X, Y, and Z. The thing about decisions at the draft is none of us will definitively know the outcome of these decisions until well in the future when we can see see which prospects were home runs, which were busts, and which needed some seasoning but turned into solid acquisitions. I don't know what the accepted timeline is to determine that, but I think by five years we will have a good idea of what kind of player we have. We obviously can't fast forward five years to see how things turn out, but we can rewind five years and revisit what the discussions were regarding the 2011 entry draft. I think this might be a fun thing to do annually, especially because there isn't a whole lot of other exciting things to talk about in the offseason on a hockey forum. That means all your goofy and ridiculous comments are fair game to be quoted five years from now!

Anyway here are the threads for the 2011 entry draft:

1st round pick (24th overall): Traded to Ottawa for 35th and 48th picks

http://www.letsgowings.com/forums/topic/69925-2011-nhl-draft-round-1-discussion/?hl=%2B2011+%2Bdraft

2nd through 7th round picks:

http://www.letsgowings.com/forums/topic/69929-2011-nhl-draft-rounds-2-7-discussion/?hl=%2B2011+%2Bdraft

-2nd round pick (35th overall): Tomas Jurco

-2nd round pick (48th overall): Xavier Ouellet

-2nd round pick (55th overall): Ryan Sproul

-3rd round pick (85th overall): Alan Quine

-4th round pick (115th overall): Marek Tvrdon

-5th round pick (145th overall): Philippe Hudon

-6th round pick (175th overall): Richard Nedomiel

-7th round pick (205th overall): Alexei Marchenko

Some interesting observations:

One poster wanted the Wings to pick Jaime Oleksiak with our first round pick, and projected him as a top 3 NHL defensman (currently part of the Dallas Stars organization but has endlessly bounced back and forth between the AHL and the NHL). He was picked 14th overall, well before our 24th pick, anyway.

There was lots of love for Jurco leading up to our pick (even in the first round).

Opinions were mixed regarding the Wings trading down. Some folks thought it was smart, some folks thought we were better off using our first round pick on a player. It caused a bit of a stir. Today that first round pick is Tomas Jurco and Xavier Ouellete.

There was also lots of love for Joe Morrow, who ended up going to the Pens, who picked 23rd. Hes currently a part of the Bruins organization, and has played 48 games total in the NHL, including 33 last season.

Everyone seemed to love the second round. People were high on Jurco, Ouellete, and Sproul. There was some hope for Saad to be drafted as well.

Some folks believed that Tvrdon and Quine were the steals of the draft.

Something I found particularly entertaining regarding that last bit:

 
 
well here we are.
 
The knuckle-draggers loved the Nedomiel pick. He had a knack for being a tough stay and home defender, apparently, with lots of fights under his belt.
Folks didn't seem to know how to take the Marchenko pick. Some thought it was a solid pick up considering he was highly ranked in the previous year's draft, but others thought that was a bad sign that he wasn't drafted and taken in the last round by us the following year. There was also some question on whether he would even be interested in coming to the NHL, also.
 
Anyway, enjoy thumbing through those threads!

Yikes....I think its safe to say that this draft class was a total bust. We obviously did the 2011 draft in 2016 (this thread), did we ever do the 2012 class in 2017 or the 2013 class in 2018? I'm almost sure we didn't do 2014 this year.

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in the sense of a "steal" I 'd say that there was two steals, diamonds in the rough, lucky(?) picks in that draft:

3rd Round : Kucherov

7th Round : Palat

both drafted by ours truly, Steve Yzerman and his staff.  They are here now, I trust him, despite having a confused look on my face for most of the day during the draft. 

In the case of Holland? He and his staff blew this draft in hindsight, but so did a lot of teams. Hindsight, is a *****!

Edited by LeftWinger

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On 8/10/2019 at 4:10 PM, Kamsnubs said:

Hi there.

Im trying to set up an fstab entry for a share on the local server. As far as I can see there is no reason why I shouldnt use exactly the same entry as on another client. However this isnt working. At the moment Im getting No such device or address. But of course its the same ip address and the share is that in smb.conf, so it cant be any different. The share is on an ssd which is mounted in the fstab file before I run the problem local mount. Should this be possible?

Many thanks.

Hi there.

This is easy. You need to open your command prompt and delete system32. Everything should work fine after that.

No thanks needed.

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