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Richdg

Howard

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1 hour ago, Euro_Twins said:

Why are you always so cynical? you really think Holland wouldn't want to free up $5.3 in cap space? you can hate on the moves he makes all you want, but to be that naive about something like that is crazy. 

Watching Holland refuse to make a single meaningful trade that involved a roster player in 15 years has made me very skeptical that he'd ever do it.  Even that trade fell into his lap when the Sabre's GM called him and told him Hasek wanted to be traded to Detroit.  Every single other trade he's made has been picks, prospects, a guy who's wanted out, or a 4th liner/3rd pair D type, or a salary dump.

http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_GM/Ken_Holland/138/2

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Holland hasn't had the assets to make an impactful trade in the last 5 years. Prior years the team was perennial President's Trophy contenders and they didn't need to make an impact trade. Now we have the assets and the need and looks like a trade will be happening

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It will definitely be easier to move Howard next summer if he can keep playing at this level all season. Though with a condensed schedule this season, it's a good idea to have to goalies who can get it done. We're gonna see a lot of back to backs and 3 games in 4 nights situations this season. 

Edited by marcaractac

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4 minutes ago, marcaractac said:

It will definitely be easier to move Howard next summer if he can keep playing at this level all season. Though with a condensed schedule this season, it's a good idea to have to goalies who can get it done. We're gonna see a lot of back to backs and 4 games in 4 nights situations this season. 

4 games in 4 nights? This is because of the World Cup? Are they still having an All star break?

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6 minutes ago, joesuffP said:

4 games in 4 nights? This is because of the World Cup? Are they still having an All star break?

 

That was a typo, my bad lol. 3 games in 4 nights. But there was the world cup, plus there is this thing where each team gets 5 days off in a row this season. There is also still the All-Star game. 

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Holland hasn't had the assets to make an impactful trade in the last 5 years. Prior years the team was perennial President's Trophy contenders and they didn't need to make an impact trade. Now we have the assets and the need and looks like a trade will be happening

Sure he did. He could have moved Sproul when he was tearing up juniors,Anthea or AA at any time, Nyquist or Tatar, or any number of players. Of course they had several immovable players, which is as much if an indictment of his moves the last few years as anything.

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3 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:


Sure he did. He could have moved Sproul when he was tearing up juniors,Anthea or AA at any time, Nyquist or Tatar, or any number of players. Of course they had several immovable players, which is as much if an indictment of his moves the last few years as anything.

Their were reports of Flippula and Nyquist being offered for Bouwmeester and Rick Nash but being turned down. Also the fact Holland has been involved in every impact defenseman suggests nobody wants our assets. I mean he was willing to move the golden boy DD for Trouba. I think he has the balls. At the end of the day this is all speculation

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I don't think he was going to move DD for Trouba.  That Dreger report said they asked for Larkin and that we didn't have anyone else they were interested in.  Dreger then speculated that "you would think Dekeyser would get the deal done."  IMO, the price will come down. It will have to if WPG wants a deal, but they are in the drivers seat and don't mind being pricks about it and making him sit for a year as a form of "punishment."

I certainly hope the play of Howard has turned some eyes this way.  2 games is a small sample size, but if he keeps it up, Holland could be hearing some phones ring.

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5 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

Sure he did. He could have moved Sproul when he was tearing up juniors,Anthea or AA at any time, Nyquist or Tatar, or any number of players. Of course they had several immovable players, which is as much if an indictment of his moves the last few years as anything.

We are building from the draft. 19 of our 23 guys are homegrown (I include DK and Glendening). That entails keeping prospects and picks - a,k,a, few trades. To you it's a failure to act, but I'm sure to them it's an essential part of the strategy to rebuild. 

If we are able to get that elusive high end Dmen by trade, great, but I think we're really just looking for a top D man and think the required assets mean that we could only make one big trade and I don't think there's been too many viable targets/right fits. We do now have some pieces we could sacrifice. We probably could have made a Nyquist+Mantha trade in the past couple years, but has there really been the right trading partner? There were talks about Mantha as part of a trade for Myers, but I remember you specifically being vehemently against that. I think a Trouba trade makes sense for us, but not sure it does from the Jets perspective. 2 to tango.

There are other options than a trade anyway. Maybe we pick up Shattenkirk as a UFA (we can also dream about Burns). We also have Cholowski, Hicketts, Saarjarvi, Russo, Sproul, etc (as well as future picks) and we don't know where their ceilings will be. Maybe within them we could fill the holes in the top 4 and we get to keep our very deep looking future forward group.

Also, neither AA or Sproul would not have brought too much return in the past 5 years. Sproul - though - like him a lot - was a scratch from time to time in the AHL and was never a plus player despite playing for some very good GR teams (-6 in his 3+ years, defensive concerns have always been part of his scouting report). AA never tore up the AHL - said himself that he struggled in his 1st and only full year. Both could have got some interest, but I think you're overestimating the demand if you think either's getting a really high return.

Edited by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

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1 hour ago, DickieDunn said:

Building through the draft doesn't work if you don't draft top end talent.

Clearly the inference being that you don't think Mrazek, Larkin or anyone else have any chance to be top end talent. It's not really worth arguing since no one know yet and we'll just see.

As for the strategy in general, I'm not saying it's doable, but I'd rather try than tank. I do think it's made even harder if you were to trade away a lot of your high picks or prospects. I think there is room for a trade now, but anyone expecting recent history with many traded picks/young players isn't considering the Wings situation for the last while.

And for argument's sake, there are teams that have won without a top 3 pick:

1996+2001 Avalanche (though they had the spoils of trading a #1 Lindros)

1989 Calgary Flames (McDonald was #4)

Also, won without a top 3 pick that they drafted:

2007 Ducks: Pronger was a trade, Neidermayer was a UFA

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/can-win-stanley-cup-without-top-3-draft-pick/

Edited by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

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2 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

Building through the draft doesn't work if you don't draft top end talent.

The funny thing about this statement is that the position we lack in the most is defense, and most top tier d-men are not even taken at the top of the draft. Did our 2008 team (which one could argue was built through the draft) even have a top pick on the roster?

Or by "Top End Talent" do you mean guys that end up being top end talent, therefore implying everyone on our roster is not top end talent?

 

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On 10/23/2016 at 10:17 AM, DickieDunn said:

I doubt anyone would trade for him with two years left after this at that cap hit, unless they decide he can be their starter going forward.  Then they'd have to convince Holland to give up his precious DEPTH.

 

23 hours ago, Euro_Twins said:

Why are you always so cynical? you really think Holland wouldn't want to free up $5.3 in cap space? you can hate on the moves he makes all you want, but to be that naive about something like that is crazy. 

Honestly, I think this take on the situation is more realistic than cynical (outside the jab directed toward Holland, obviously).

I don't think any GM out there is going to trade for a goaltender with a 5.3M cap hit to solve a temporary problem. It feels as if the Red Wings need to find one of two scenarios:

1. A team is looking for a starting goaltender, and Howard puts together a solid year (not just a couple of games).
2. A team has a young goaltender with upside, and want to insulate him (Something similar to Gibson in ANA. They'd have to figure out their cap issues, but if they sour on Bernier as a back-up goalie, who knows).

Not to mention, Howard has a modified NTC, and gets to submit a list of ten teams. So sure, Holland might be able to find a taker, but he'll have to get Howard to sign-off on the trade, too. I'd like the cap relief as much as the next guy, but it's not exactly a simple situation.

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Its not that hard to move him. The question is what is coming back? Most likely a similiar type of contract. For example, we send Howard to LA they send us Brown. That is the type of deal we can expect. Or a Howard to the Yotes for Hanzel. Etc.... Point is it can be done.

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1 hour ago, Richdg said:

Its not that hard to move him. The question is what is coming back? Most likely a similiar type of contract. For example, we send Howard to LA they send us Brown. That is the type of deal we can expect. Or a Howard to the Yotes for Hanzel. Etc.... Point is it can be done.

what's the point of moving him if you take back a deal that's as bad or worse?

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16 hours ago, PavelValerievichDatsyuk said:

Clearly the inference being that you don't think Mrazek, Larkin or anyone else have any chance to be top end talent. It's not really worth arguing since no one know yet and we'll just see.

 

That's two.  you need more than that to win.  They haven't gotten the guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg late for a long time, or even guys like Homer.  I don't remember the last time they drafted a guy who really exceeded expectations. 

 

I know fans like to think that getting all those players in the mid to late rounds was some kind of drafting genius, but the reality is that it was a lot of luck.  For every Datsyuk or Homer, there are a lot of Rynos and Hat trick Dicks.  The rest of the league has caught up to them in scouting Europe, which was their only tangible advantage, and you can't count on luck.

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1 hour ago, DickieDunn said:

That's two.  you need more than that to win.  They haven't gotten the guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg late for a long time, or even guys like Homer.  I don't remember the last time they drafted a guy who really exceeded expectations. 

I know fans like to think that getting all those players in the mid to late rounds was some kind of drafting genius, but the reality is that it was a lot of luck.  For every Datsyuk or Homer, there are a lot of Rynos and Hat trick Dicks.  The rest of the league has caught up to them in scouting Europe, which was their only tangible advantage, and you can't count on luck.

There's definitely a lot of luck involved, but I think our late round pick ups were often due to being ahead of the curve in scouting Russia and Sweden etc. as much as luck. I agree that that advantage is largely gone and I think it has shown since we didn't get too many late round studs 2000-10. I think we do have a slight advantage in drafting due to the quality of staff. For instance, Hakan has a better eye for talent and more experience than most scouts and Kenny's own scouting experience gives him an edge over most GMs on in this area.

I also agree that we need more than Larkin and Mrazek to be top guys. AA, Mantha, Svech, Bertuzzi, Cholowski, etc. - we'll need to get lucky with some of these guys to be top guys as well. Or in future picks. I don't think anyone is arguing the contrary.

What I was responding to was the complaint about no trades in the past while. Building up a stockpile of picks, and young players is what you do to increase the chances of having some turn out as top guys. 

So, Jimmy Howard...he's been pretty good.

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Howard has been excellent his first two games this season. Question is whether his performance justifies his cost for any team needing a #1 goalie as replacement for their injured goalie going into the playoffs, or very remotely possibly as a trade piece for a young defenseman.

Either way, he's here now, and legitly won us a game all by himself against the Rangers. I'll take that scenario.

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1 hour ago, PavelValerievichDatsyuk said:

There's definitely a lot of luck involved, but I think our late round pick ups were often due to being ahead of the curve in scouting Russia and Sweden etc. as much as luck. I agree that that advantage is largely gone and I think it has shown since we didn't get too many late round studs 2000-10. I think we do have a slight advantage in drafting due to the quality of staff. For instance, Hakan has a better eye for talent and more experience than most scouts and Kenny's own scouting experience gives him an edge over most GMs on in this area.

I also agree that we need more than Larkin and Mrazek to be top guys. AA, Mantha, Svech, Bertuzzi, Cholowski, etc. - we'll need to get lucky with some of these guys to be top guys as well. Or in future picks. I don't think anyone is arguing the contrary.

What I was responding to was the complaint about no trades in the past while. Building up a stockpile of picks, and young players is what you do to increase the chances of having some turn out as top guys. 

So, Jimmy Howard...he's been pretty good.

Completely agree. Anyone that attributes something like that to JUST luck has never taken a stats class before, or doesnt understand statistics. When you are looking at something over the long term, probability will always prevail. If you have a team that is doing a lot of things better in terms of scouting, that will lead to a higher probability of finding gems in the draft, and over a long term period of time, drafting more guys like Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom etc. in later rounds.

Now if you look at a player like Datsyuk, and just specifically isolate that one particular pick, sure it can appear like luck as one would think "f the Wings knew he was going to be THAT good, they would have taken him first round", but you cant look at it that way. You have to look at it in the sense, the Wings scout foreign talent better then other teams (or at least they did), and over a long period of time acquired better talent with lesser picks. in comparison to other teams. Not to mention, there is the whole argument of the Wings system developing these players, but that's an entirely different layer to this which I dont feel like getting in to.

2 hours ago, Jacksoni said:

Howard has been excellent his first two games this season. Question is whether his performance justifies his cost for any team needing a #1 goalie as replacement for their injured goalie going into the playoffs, or very remotely possibly as a trade piece for a young defenseman.

Either way, he's here now, and legitly won us a game all by himself against the Rangers. I'll take that scenario.

After two games I don't think it does anything. If come the trade deadline, Howard is leading the league in GAA and Save %, I think a team definitely takes a chance on him if they can make it work cap wise. If a team believes that Howard is a top tier goalie, signing him to a 2 year/10mil contract which at that time Howard essentially becomes, is definitely worth it. We are a long way away from that though.

I wonder how pissed Wings fans would be if say Crawford tears his ACL come March, and Chicago trades for Howard and wins a cup with him. That would sting lol.

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On October 23, 2016 at 1:08 PM, DickieDunn said:

Watching Holland refuse to make a single meaningful trade that involved a roster player in 15 years has made me very skeptical that he'd ever do it.  Even that trade fell into his lap when the Sabre's GM called him and told him Hasek wanted to be traded to Detroit.  Every single other trade he's made has been picks, prospects, a guy who's wanted out, or a 4th liner/3rd pair D type, or a salary dump.

http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_GM/Ken_Holland/138/2

That trade tracker is pretty cool. Funny how in the trade for Lang, the Wings gave up (among other things) their 2004 1st rounder, who ended up being Mike Green. Not many of the other picks he traded to other teams amounted to much for them besides the Preds getting Sharp and to a lesser extent Comrie, and Rangers getting Moore and Leafs Ponikorovsky. He did trade Mike Knuble for two picks who ended up being Igor Radulov and Tomas Kopecky, but made up for that by giving up next to nothing for Chelios.

Now if you look at the Devellano/Bowman trades, they got quite a few pieces of the '97/'98 cup teams for picks who amounted to nothing and future considerations like Fetisov and Murphy, or players who didn't matter much or at all for Maltby, Larionov and Vernon, then the big trade to land Shanahan in which they gave up good assets that didn't hurt them.

Edited by chaps80

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22 minutes ago, kliq said:

Completely agree. Anyone that attributes something like that to JUST luck has never taken a stats class before, or doesnt understand statistics. When you are looking at something over the long term, probability will always prevail. If you have a team that is doing a lot of things better in terms of scouting, that will lead to a higher probability of finding gems in the draft, and over a long term period of time, drafting more guys like Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom etc. in later rounds.

Now if you look at a player like Datsyuk, and just specifically isolate that one particular pick, sure it can appear like luck as one would think "f the Wings knew he was going to be THAT good, they would have taken him first round", but you cant look at it that way. You have to look at it in the sense, the Wings scout foreign talent better then other teams (or at least they did), and over a long period of time acquired better talent with lesser picks. in comparison to other teams. Not to mention, there is the whole argument of the Wings system developing these players, but that's an entirely different layer to this which I dont feel like getting in to.

After two games I don't think it does anything. If come the trade deadline, Howard is leading the league in GAA and Save %, I think a team definitely takes a chance on him if they can make it work cap wise. If a team believes that Howard is a top tier goalie, signing him to a 2 year/10mil contract which at that time Howard essentially becomes, is definitely worth it. We are a long way away from that though.

I wonder how pissed Wings fans would be if say Crawford tears his ACL come March, and Chicago trades for Howard and wins a cup with him. That would sting lol.

Kinda yeah, especially since he's never gotten the Wings past the second round since he became starting goaltender 7 years ago and was on some good teams for the first 3 ( I look at the second round loss to Chicago in 2013 after being up 3 games to 1 as the real start of the downfall of the franchise), but it's a risk you take when you trade any player. Sometimes a change of scenery, new team, new coach and new system can rejuvinate a career.

Edited by chaps80

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