Conflict in the Crease

[BadgerBob 297]

51 minutes ago, PavelValerievichDatsyuk said:

I don't think anyone has said Mrazek isn't the #1. From what I can tell, this discussion was trigger by those that argued that Howard should barely ever play. Mrazek can still be an acknowledged #1 without playing 70+ games.

And for your argument that Howard's games have been cherry-picked, I disagree. He played against NY and the Sharks - those are 2 of the best teams we've played, i think. Along with the blues, they're the only teams that we've played that are ahead in the standings (or tied if you discount games played). 

I'm not sure why anyone is arguing that either has played badly. I didn't see this last game were Mrazek was pulled, but I think they've both been great despite usually getting peppered as we often are greatly outshot. I think our goaltending duo is one of the greatest strengths of the team. We'll let Howard get a bunch of games and Mrazek won't be worn out for the playoffs (fingers crosses) and will be less likely to get injured.

The only person I have heard say that Mrazek is #1 was Jimmy in the interview after his 1st W this year.

[kickazz 5,459]

5 hours ago, Echolalia said:

I disagree that he's been playing well.  He's had flashes of brilliance in almost every game he's played, but that doesn't negate the soft goals he's given up (and he's given up many).  Right now Mrazek is 29th in save percentage and 33rd in goals against.  He's played 7 more periods than Howard has thus far so they're workload isn't all that dissimilar.  Meanwhile Howard leads the league in both categories.

Leading the league in the most average way possible. 

[Buppy 1,720]

16 hours ago, kickazz said:

I think some people are in denial about Mrazek.

He's one of the most inconsistent goalies in recent Red Wings history. The guy has already been pulled like 8 times in his career and hasn't even had 2 full seasons yet. I mean I like the guy, he's amazing when he's at his best. But come on, when he's bad... he's REALLY bad. Sometimes goalies have bad games, no big deal, but Mrazek has gone through long stretches of being bad. This is exactly why having Howard actually works out. 

Yes he should be the #1. No he should not be playing 70 games. 

People don't understand what consistency means. Mrazek is as consistent as anyone.

Braden Holtby was pulled 6 times last year. Getting pulled and/or having a statistically poor game doesn't necessarily mean the goalie played poorly. 

[gcom007 1,465]

4 hours ago, GoalieManPat said:

You are right he was great coming in the last three games last playoff. Until he flubbed a pass with 90 seconds left and got caught behind the net on the game/series winner. Thats the problem with his game right now. He can be great a lot and then completely throw away all his good work on one play. I dont think anyone is truly debating that Mrazek is not the future for the club but based on boths current play Howard early this year Howard deserves more games and thats a good thing for the club. 

That's a silly, isolated example. If there's one thing most everyone agrees with, it's that he's a great puck handling goalie. That play was very out of character for him and I don't believe it relates in any way, shape, or form to his more general consistency issues. He flubbed a play. It happens. It sucks and it was horrible timing, but thankfully, I don't think that part of his game is something we need to be overly concerned with, because again, generally speaking, that element of his game is a huge strength. 

2 hours ago, BadgerBob said:

The only person I have heard say that Mrazek is #1 was Jimmy in the interview after his 1st W this year.

There's Holland quotes in this very thread where Mrazek is referred to as the starter and Jimmy the backup and that coming into this year, Jimmy gets that. 

Edited October 31, 2016 by gcom007

[kickazz 5,459]

1 hour ago, Buppy said:

People don't understand what consistency means. Mrazek is as consistent as anyone.

Braden Holtby was pulled 6 times last year. Getting pulled and/or having a statistically poor game doesn't necessarily mean the goalie played poorly. 

Imo this  is a weak example for a supporting argument for Mrazek. Holtby was pulled 6 times in 66 games over the course of the season. Petr Mrazek at one point was pulled 5 times in 14 games. Over the course of 54 games, that's an entire 1 - 1.5 month of games that were bad. 

For Holtby, in 66 games he was pulled only 3 times early the game due to performance issues. Additionally, Holtby pulled himself out of a game on January 17th, 2016 due to dehydration. Since his dehydration incident, his numbers suffered in the month of Jan/Feb in which he was pulled again in February 24th. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/caps-beat-rangers-holtby-leaves-early/2016/01/17/23e6978e-bd6c-11e5-9443-7074c3645405_story.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capitals-insider/wp/2016/02/20/braden-holtbys-numbers-have-dipped-slightly/

http://www.thescore.com/news/986444

According to hockey reference -

Holtby pulled: 

12-18-2015 (pulled early)

1-16-2016 (pulled early) 

1 -17-2016 (dehydrated, pulled himself out - still got the win)

2-13-2016 (pulled after 2nd period)

2-24-2016 (pulled after 3 goals on 18 shots, very controversial decision, Holtby was fuming on the bench over this)

3-20-2016 (pulled after playing 47 minutes of the game)

 

So as you can see, 4 out of his 6 times he was pulled was after his dehydration incident. One could argue that his perfmance dip could have been due to his health because up until then he was fine. Again, the one time pulled due to injury, and still got the win. Even at his worst he was pulled 4 times over the course of 3 months. 

On the other hand Mrazek was pulled 5 times just between Feb 14 and March 29th. 

If Mrazek was "as consistent as anyone" then "anyone" being pulled 5 times in 45 days would be the norm. Which it isn't. 

 

 

Edited October 31, 2016 by kickazz

[TheXym 2,606]

8 hours ago, puckloo39 said:

Mrazek doesn't have the advantage of a truly elite goalie in front of him.  Not that I dislike Howard, I think he is a fine goalie.  Our D is suspect, so he's no different than any other top goaltender with a porous D and inconsistency/turnovers/brain farts on a given night.

Other goalies like Legacy and Howard to an extent had an actual #1 (Hasek, Ozzie) to lead the tending, while they developed their games.  On occasion it made them look better than they actually are/were, since they had the freedom to learn from and fall back to the veteran proven goalie.

We threw Mraz into the fires of Hell (what else can you call Detroit goaltending) and he was great, for a rookie - even spectacular at times.  It is a lot to expect elite-level play from a youngster like him --  but he seems pretty tough mentally, so I expect he will be our future.  

Who is the goalie coach right now, by the way? Could that be part of the problem here?

Jeff Salajko from Grand Rapids replaced Jim Bedard for this season.  Mrazek worked with him in GR, and I think the change from Bedard is a partial reason for Howard's improved play.

 

[Echolalia 2,961]

36 minutes ago, Buppy said:

People don't understand what consistency means. Mrazek is as consistent as anyone.

Braden Holtby was pulled 6 times last year. Getting pulled and/or having a statistically poor game doesn't necessarily mean the goalie played poorly. 

Standard deviation is a good measurement of consistency, no?  Taking Mrazek's numbers in games he started compared to Holtby's:

Mrazek: average save % since Jan 1st: .900/  Standard deviation: .099

Holtby average save % since Jan 1st: .910/ Standard deviation: .046

Even if you go all the way back to the beginning of last year Mrazek's stdev is .08, still almost double what Holtby's is.

[kickazz 5,459]

1 minute ago, Echolalia said:

Standard deviation is a good measurement of consistency, no?  Taking Mrazek's numbers in games he started compared to Holtby's:

Mrazek: average save % since Jan 1st: .900/  Standard deviation: .099

Holtby average save % since Jan 1st: .910/ Standard deviation: .046

Even if you go all the way back to the beginning of last year Mrazek's stdev is .08, still almost double what Holtby's is.

So Holtby "honors" and Mrazek just "passes"?  

[Echolalia 2,961]

Just now, kickazz said:

So Holtby "honors" and Mrazek just "passes"?  

I guess I'm more of a Mrazek student lol

[gcom007 1,465]

Speaking of Howard accepting the backup role more this year, I wouldn't be shocked if that had a hand in improving his game. It's less pressure, and for a goalie that's been notoriously hard on himself, this might be exactly what he needs to relax and play his best hockey. I never thought Howard quite had the edge to be a great starter, despite at times playing excellent. His head seemed to always get in the way. Maybe he's finally figured out what works for him. Total speculation, but an interesting thought. Whatever it is, again, I hope he keeps it up. There's no downside to having two goalies playing great so long as we have both goalies on the roster.

[kickazz 5,459]

Well P = MD

In Mrazeks case P = SG (starting goalie) 

[Echolalia 2,961]

2 minutes ago, kickazz said:

Well P = MD

In Mrazeks case P = SG (starting goalie) 

My fave equation

[Ram 240]

23 hours ago, GoalieManPat said:

Lets look at this from a different angle for those that want Mrazek playing 70+ games. He is the future of this team no doubt. This team needs Howard to get into games and play well though. They tried to trade him all off season and nobody bit. He has no trade value and there was no guarantee LV would take him. They need him to play in 25+ games and to play well. If he keeps playing like he is then come trade deadline someone will definitely be offering up for him and at the very least he probably gets taken in the expansion draft and the Wings get some cap relief. If they dont play him we will be in this same two goaltender boat next year so everyone needs to really push for him to play well and get in games.

This. And both goalies will be hung onto for some time unless the the deal is right, IMO.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Name one thing Mrazek has done to prove he can bethe #1 and play well over a full season playing 60 games, much less handle 70 games.

I think he'll get there, but he hasn't yet.

[Buppy 1,720]

5 hours ago, kickazz said:

Imo this  is a weak example for a supporting argument for Mrazek. Holtby was pulled 6 times in 66 games over the course of the season. Petr Mrazek at one point was pulled 5 times in 14 games. Over the course of 54 games, that's an entire 1 - 1.5 month of games that were bad. 

For Holtby, in 66 games he was pulled only 3 times early the game due to performance issues. Additionally, Holtby pulled himself out of a game on January 17th, 2016 due to dehydration. Since his dehydration incident, his numbers suffered in the month of Jan/Feb in which he was pulled again in February 24th. ...

So as you can see, 4 out of his 6 times he was pulled was after his dehydration incident. One could argue that his perfmance dip could have been due to his health because up until then he was fine. Again, the one time pulled due to injury, and still got the win. Even at his worst he was pulled 4 times over the course of 3 months. 

On the other hand Mrazek was pulled 5 times just between Feb 14 and March 29th. 

If Mrazek was "as consistent as anyone" then "anyone" being pulled 5 times in 45 days would be the norm. Which it isn't. 

He was pulled 4 times all last year. I think you're counting one of the times Howard was pulled. That they came in a span of 14 games doesn't mean anything. 3 of Holtby's came in a 14 game span as well. 

And again, being pulled does not necessarily mean he was playing poorly.  

4 hours ago, Echolalia said:

Standard deviation is a good measurement of consistency, no?  Taking Mrazek's numbers in games he started compared to Holtby's:

Mrazek: average save % since Jan 1st: .900/  Standard deviation: .099

Holtby average save % since Jan 1st: .910/ Standard deviation: .046

Even if you go all the way back to the beginning of last year Mrazek's stdev is .08, still almost double what Holtby's is.

Not really. Average save% is a poor metric. Small sample size and highly subject to skew. Take out last night's game and Mrazek's average save% jumps to ~.908. SD drops to ~.083. He's had a few games that were particularly bad in terms of save%, twice being pulled very early and thus not having a chance to raise those numbers.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2016_goalies.html

Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts are a decent measure of consistency. Mrazek's QS% last year was 63.3%, Holtby was at 63.6%. RBS was 9.8% for Mrazek, 9.1% for Holtby. 

Consistency, in practical, real-world terms, hardly exists. No one is, or is even close to, perfectly consistent.

Mrazek happened to have a few "bad" games in a fairly short stretch last year. That isn't at all uncommon. At best, the "inconsistent" label is premature. 

Edited November 1, 2016 by Buppy

[Euro_Twins 4,475]

Just remember that Carey price didn't become as consistent and as awesome as he is until he was like 27. mrazek will be fine 

[DickieDunn 2,571]

7 hours ago, Buppy said:

People don't understand what consistency means. Mrazek is as consistent as anyone.

Braden Holtby was pulled 6 times last year. Getting pulled and/or having a statistically poor game doesn't necessarily mean the goalie played poorly. 

con·sist·ent

kənˈsistənt/

adjective

(of a person, behavior, or process) unchanging in achievement or effect over a period of time.

 

When you're good for 2/3 of the season and then play like a dumpster fire for a month and a half, that's not consistent play.  Consistent is good for the majority of the season, except for a game here, maybe a 3 game slump there.

[Buppy 1,720]

2 hours ago, Euro_Twins said:

Just remember that Carey price didn't become as consistent and as awesome as he is until he was like 27. mrazek will be fine 

Just remember that in 2014-15, when Price won the Vezina, in the first two months of the season he played 23 games. 12 of them he had a .906 or lower save%. 10 at .889 or lower. Guess Price isn't actually consistent.

1 hour ago, DickieDunn said:

con·sist·ent

kənˈsistənt/

adjective

(of a person, behavior, or process) unchanging in achievement or effect over a period of time.

 

When you're good for 2/3 of the season and then play like a dumpster fire for a month and a half, that's not consistent play.  Consistent is good for the majority of the season, except for a game here, maybe a 3 game slump there.

con·text

ˈkäntekst/

noun

the circumstances that form the setting for an event, statement, or idea, and in terms of which it can be fully understood and assessed.

 

That idea of consistency doesn't exist in the context of hockey. Go check the stats. 

And it's not really accurate to say he was bad during the entirety of that stretch. Even statistically speaking, it was only about half the games. And that's being entirely too simplistic and assuming any bad stats were solely because of bad play, ignoring the rest of the team completely. Over the course of the season he was not "bad" at a higher rate than other starting goalies. That his bad games came in a relatively narrow time frame is not all that uncommon. 

[chaps80 1,591]

Another goalie thread? There's already one about Howard.

I'm glad he's playing well, and I think a big reason for that is he feels less pressure and can be more relaxed in the backup role. He's always been his own worst enemy when it comes to dealing with the mental side of his game, and that may be a reason that he's never done anything of significance despite playing on some good teams early in his career when he was at his best. And then the past 2-3 seasons as a whole were a huge mess. If sheltering him works, keep it up. But as for the starting job, do we really want to go down that road again? On a lot of other teams he'd have been cut loose awhile back. Mrazek has his faults, but he's more skilled and stronger mentally and still developing and getting used to playing a lot of games. What someone else said about him not having the advantage of a mentor like Osgood had Vernon, Legace had Hasek and Joseph, and Howard had Osgood is interesting as well.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

con·text
ˈkäntekst/
noun
the circumstances that form the setting for an event, statement, or idea, and in terms of which it can be fully understood and assessed.
 
That idea of consistency doesn't exist in the context of hockey. Go check the stats. 
And it's not really accurate to say he was bad during the entirety of that stretch. Even statistically speaking, it was only about half the games. And that's being entirely too simplistic and assuming any bad stats were solely because of bad play, ignoring the rest of the team completely. Over the course of the season he was not "bad" at a higher rate than other starting goalies. That his bad games came in a relatively narrow time frame is not all that uncommon. 

Sure it does. Datsyuk in his prime was consistently excellent. The OMG line is consistently ineffective and overmatched. McGrattan is consistently one bad mother -hush your mouth! But I'm talkin' about McGrattan! !!

[Echolalia 2,961]

10 hours ago, Buppy said:

He was pulled 4 times all last year. I think you're counting one of the times Howard was pulled. That they came in a span of 14 games doesn't mean anything. 3 of Holtby's came in a 14 game span as well. 

And again, being pulled does not necessarily mean he was playing poorly.  

Not really. Average save% is a poor metric. Small sample size and highly subject to skew. Take out last night's game and Mrazek's average save% jumps to ~.908. SD drops to ~.083. He's had a few games that were particularly bad in terms of save%, twice being pulled very early and thus not having a chance to raise those numbers.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2016_goalies.html

Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts are a decent measure of consistency. Mrazek's QS% last year was 63.3%, Holtby was at 63.6%. RBS was 9.8% for Mrazek, 9.1% for Holtby. 

Consistency, in practical, real-world terms, hardly exists. No one is, or is even close to, perfectly consistent.

Mrazek happened to have a few "bad" games in a fairly short stretch last year. That isn't at all uncommon. At best, the "inconsistent" label is premature. 

You knock my using standard deviation of save percentage because you believe save percentage is a poor indicator of a goalie's performance, then you go on to say quality starts is better- despite it being based on a goalie'a save percentage.  Quality starts also measures the goalie's performance relative to the league average and not his own, thus isn't even that great of a tool for measuring individual consistency.

Also I didn't use a small sample size when measuring STdev, I took every game each goalie started between this season and last, which accounts for half of Mrazek's entire NHL career.  Cutting out isolated games with this sample size doesn't skew the mean or the std much at all.  Over that period 68% of Mrazek's games are within .985 and .825, which is a wide distribution, and the very definition of inconsistent.  68% of Holtby's games were in a much narrower window, and more tightly hugging his average.

 

[BadgerBob 297]

16 hours ago, gcom007 said:

Speaking of Howard accepting the backup role more this year, I wouldn't be shocked if that had a hand in improving his game. It's less pressure, and for a goalie that's been notoriously hard on himself, this might be exactly what he needs to relax and play his best hockey. I never thought Howard quite had the edge to be a great starter, despite at times playing excellent. His head seemed to always get in the way. Maybe he's finally figured out what works for him. Total speculation, but an interesting thought. Whatever it is, again, I hope he keeps it up. There's no downside to having two goalies playing great so long as we have both goalies on the roster.

I think you're right. After his first win this year he was talking to reporters, sounds like last year he had a hard time accepting it, especially hearing how him and Mrazek didn't talk a whole lot outside the rink after being good friends. I think he's come around to accepting his new role and is in a good place mentally.

[puckloo39 5,686]

http://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/breaking-starting-goalie?ref=andrew

According to this blog, Mrazek will get the chance to redeem himself tomorrow night.

 

 

[Buppy 1,720]

4 hours ago, Echolalia said:

You knock my using standard deviation of save percentage because you believe save percentage is a poor indicator of a goalie's performance, then you go on to say quality starts is better- despite it being based on a goalie'a save percentage.  Quality starts also measures the goalie's performance relative to the league average and not his own, thus isn't even that great of a tool for measuring individual consistency.

Also I didn't use a small sample size when measuring STdev, I took every game each goalie started between this season and last, which accounts for half of Mrazek's entire NHL career.  Cutting out isolated games with this sample size doesn't skew the mean or the std much at all.  Over that period 68% of Mrazek's games are within .985 and .825, which is a wide distribution, and the very definition of inconsistent.  68% of Holtby's games were in a much narrower window, and more tightly hugging his average.

 

I didn't say save% was bad, I said average save% was. And 35 starts is a small sample size.

And I'm not sure your stats are right. Since January, Mrazek has only 4 starts below .844 save%, and 3 above .972 (all SOs). 

This table shows starts and save%. Pretty similar. Mrazek has fewer bad games, but a few have been really bad statistically. But it is just a handful bad games. 

	Mrazek	Holtby	M%	H%
1000	3	1	8.57%	2.33%
950	9	10	25.71%	23.26%
930	3	5	8.57%	11.63%
920	3	4	8.57%	9.30%
910	3	3	8.57%	6.98%
900	3	2	8.57%	4.65%
890	1	1	2.86%	2.33%
880	1	4	2.86%	9.30%
870	1	4	2.86%	9.30%
860	0	4	0.00%	9.30%
850	2	1	5.71%	2.33%
sub850	6	4	17.14%	9.30%
total	35	43
total sub900	11	18	31.43%	41.86%
Total +930	15	16	42.86%	37.21%

[chaps80 1,591]

 

2 hours ago, puckloo39 said:

http://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/breaking-starting-goalie?ref=andrew

According to this blog, Mrazek will get the chance to redeem himself tomorrow night.

 

 

A chance to redeem himself? If Blashill said that, I dunno wtf he's on, but i want some. Mrazek has lost 3 of 7, Howard 1 of 3. Mrazek has nothing he has to redeem himself for. Sure he's allowed more goals than Howard and has been pulled once, but wins are what's important, not individual stats.

But sure Blash, if Mrazek doesn't get it done tomorrow and you want to give Jimmy more games as a result of that, which leads to more pressure on him, which makes there a bigger chance that he reverts back into sieve mode,why not eh? 

Edited November 1, 2016 by chaps80