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MabusIncarnate

Conflict in the Crease

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23 minutes ago, wings_fanatic said:

Everyone says howard took over at the end of the regular season. He never really played that great. He was still letting in about 3 goals a game and never really made huge saves to win us games. He was playing average at best in front of a team that was playing average. And then he lost both games in round 1 where he played below average. We did NOT make playoffs cuz of howard

Yea he did don't kid yourself if we had only Mrazek last season we would not have made playoffs. Jimmy has single handedly won us some games in the last few seasons. He definitely has some confidence issues but without Jimmy our streak probably would have ended around 22.

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3 hours ago, wings_fanatic said:

Everyone says howard took over at the end of the regular season. He never really played that great. He was still letting in about 3 goals a game and never really made huge saves to win us games. He was playing average at best in front of a team that was playing average. And then he lost both games in round 1 where he played below average. We did NOT make playoffs cuz of howard

In that 5 game stretch from 3/26 to 4/6 when we secured the playoffs, Howard went 4-1-0, allowed in this order 2, 2, 2, 2, and 0 goals against. I guess if you round up it's sorta close to 3 goals.

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21 hours ago, Buppy said:

You gave a (again, incorrect) stat on how many times Mrazek was pulled. You then tried to dismiss the times Holtby was pulled as the result of that one time he was dehydrated.

Yes, I made a generalization. One you explicitly agree with, so I'm not sure what you're trying to argue against. Your generalization; that Mrazek was bad for 1 to 1.5 months; is wrong though. Even if we assume that all the bad statistical games were bad play (and we really shouldn't, which was the point of the generalization), he still had several good games in that stretch.

 

So you're cherry picking that fact that I said he was pulled 5 games instead of 4? Okay I can do that too. You stated Holtby was pulled 6 times even though one of them he wasn't "pulled" but actually left the game on his own decision. So there, go re-read your old post about "use correct stats, if you don't beer league blah blah" whatever it was and follow your own advice.

It's not a generalization if a goalie is off his game for 1-1.5 months. Call it an upwards/downwards trend, call it inconsistency, call it a bad stretch or call it bad performance; regardless it wasn't something you want out of a starting goalie and it's definitely not something a goalie wants to bring himself.

21 hours ago, Buppy said:

I'm not going to analyze video of every game. I suspect even if I did we'd disagree on whether many of the goals were 'bad' or not. My point was never that Mrazek hasn't been bad at times. The point is that all goalies are "bad" at times, and even bad stretches aren't uncommon.

LoL. first, you don't have to" analyze video of every game", you only need to analyze the goals given up against which probably is a 30 second video per goal. Second, it's actually a thing. Video analysis. They have coaches for that sort of stuff. It exists.

Staring at numbers without visual context isn't going to be a convincing argument. There's a multitude of things to look at. Were the goals that were given up "soft goals"? Was the goalie slow to react? If so was that the case in the other goals given up? Maybe the goalie's reactionary rate is off more than usual. Was the goalie out of position more often than not? Is the goalie mishandling the puck or misreading the plays more often than not? If so that goalie is clearly having an issue and a decline in performance and it was likely right to pull him at the time. 

Quote

I gave an example of Holtby, pulled 3 times in 14 games, 7 of those 14 games had a sv% .875 or lower. I gave another of Price, mentioned as a model of consistency, having 10 "bad" games in the first two months of his Vezina year. How about Hasek? 2000-01 Vezina year. 6 of his first 10 games under .895. Another stretch of 5 in 8 later in the year.

At no point was Hasek below .800, maybe just once, Price was below .800 twice and Holtby like twice. Mrazek fell below .8 and even below .7 in 3 games during the 2nd half of the season. And even the times they were below .8 it would be a gap of at least like 10 or 12 games unlike in Mrazek's case. Price and Holtby's sv% were more consistent where every so often they'd have a game below .9 but Mrazek went through long stretches where he would sustain a sv% of > .9 but then all of a sudden every 3 or 4 games he would have a dip in his sv% in the last few months of the season. That's inconsistency. He went from having a Vezina like performance for a few months to a completely different goalie. Maybe his "great" performance was just an outlier and ended up being unsustainable. 

Edited by kickazz

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3 hours ago, kickazz said:

So you're cherry picking that fact that I said he was pulled 5 games instead of 4? Okay I can do that too. You stated Holtby was pulled 6 times even though one of them he wasn't "pulled" but actually left the game on his own decision. So there, go re-read your old post about "use correct stats, if you don't beer league blah blah" whatever it was and follow your own advice.

It's not a generalization if a goalie is off his game for 1-1.5 months. Call it an upwards/downwards trend, call it inconsistency, call it a bad stretch or call it bad performance; regardless it wasn't something you want out of a starting goalie and it's definitely not something a goalie wants to bring himself.

LoL. first, you don't have to" analyze video of every game", you only need to analyze the goals given up against which probably is a 30 second video per goal. Second, it's actually a thing. Video analysis. They have coaches for that sort of stuff. It exists.

Staring at numbers without visual context isn't going to be a convincing argument. There's a multitude of things to look at. Were the goals that were given up "soft goals"? Was the goalie slow to react? If so was that the case in the other goals given up? Maybe the goalie's reactionary rate is off more than usual. Was the goalie out of position more often than not? Is the goalie mishandling the puck or misreading the plays more often than not? If so that goalie is clearly having an issue and a decline in performance and it was likely right to pull him at the time. 

At no point was Hasek below .800, maybe just once, Price was below .800 twice and Holtby like twice. Mrazek fell below .8 and even below .7 in 3 games during the 2nd half of the season. And even the times they were below .8 it would be a gap of at least like 10 or 12 games unlike in Mrazek's case. Price and Holtby's sv% were more consistent where every so often they'd have a game below .9 but Mrazek went through long stretches where he would sustain a sv% of > .9 but then all of a sudden every 3 or 4 games he would have a dip in his sv% in the last few months of the season. That's inconsistency. He went from having a Vezina like performance for a few months to a completely different goalie. Maybe his "great" performance was just an outlier and ended up being unsustainable. 

He was not "off his game for 1-1.5 months".

Got lit up by Boston and Pittsburgh, then had solid games against Ott and CBJ, not too bad against Col, poor against Chi, then gave up a couple early in the next Chi game and got pulled, then 4 straight solid games, not good in relief of Jimmy against TB, not too bad against Mon, worse against Pit and got pulled (and Jimmy did even worse in relief), then again pulled early after two early goals. 

That is not being bad for 1-1.5 months straight. He was good at times, bad at times. Considering that Jimmy wasn't faring much better over that same time, I have to think it was mostly the result of the team play overall. Which is not to say Mrazek (or Jimmy) were perfect, just probably not as bad as the stats suggest. Maybe if I was a coach, and being paid to analyze video, I'd do that... but considering I'm not getting paid and it probably wouldn't do any good, I'm not going to. Because again, it doesn't matter. Go ahead and call those games bad. Still doesn't mean he was bad for a month+, nor is it particularly uncommon for goalies to have several bad games in a relatively short period.

And now, just as I predicted, you're starting to use Mrazek to define what consistent means. Now instead of it being 'consistent goalies don't have that many bad games, or bad stretches of games', it's 'well, regular bad games don't count, only <.800 bad games'. And not just that, but apparently you're saying that 2 such games is Vezina-worthy consistency, but 3 makes you "one of the most inconsistent goalies in recent Red Wings history".

I'll grant you, games under .800 are rare, especially full games. Mrazek has only one of those in his career. Really about the only times it happens is when a goalie is pulled pretty early. So the crux of your argument seems to be falling on the two games in which he gave up two early goals and got pulled, resulting in very poor stats.

I'm going to speculate a little here, but given that there were 1787 goals scored in 1st periods last year, I think it's safe to assume "2 early goals" is not all that uncommon. But I'd assume (speculating again, but I'm not going to dig through a ton of game logs) that a goalie being pulled after just 2 goals is pretty rare, especially for an established goalie. I think you're giving undue weight to a coach's decision.

Now, there's no way to know what would have happened if Petr had been allowed to finish those two games, but going by the rest of his career, I'd say it's highly likely he would have finished above .800. Maybe you disagree. Not really important either way, being that it was only two games.

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I will give the Mraz-slappies this:  Blashill named Petr 'the starter' and is heir-apparent to the crease. 

He should get more starts than Howard.

BUT...

...until Howard is traded, and until Mrazek starts playing lights out elite level hockey, we've got a 1A/1B situation and if there's one thing that will keep us competitive it's using our goaltending depth.

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1 hour ago, e_prime said:

I will give the Mraz-slappies this:  Blashill named Petr 'the starter' and is heir-apparent to the crease. 

He should get more starts than Howard.

BUT...

...until Howard is traded, and until Mrazek starts playing lights out elite level hockey, we've got a 1A/1B situation and if there's one thing that will keep us competitive it's using our goaltending depth.

This is exactly where i'm at. I don't think anyone is saying Howard should be the starter over Mrazek, that isn't even really a debate. But the primary point that most of us are trying to get across is Mrazek is not ready to take on the workload of a seasoned established veteran starter when he is still young and trying to establish himself and has the veteran support of another goaltender that is being paid to play more than 12-15 games per season. 

With our defense in it's current condition, regardless of his play, if Mrazek is thrown to the wolves and given a tremendous workload, the defense will play a large role in inevitably destroying his confidence. A lot of losses are on the D, and not the goaltending, but if he's allowing 3, 4, or 5 goals a night because he's facing 40+ shots, it will reflect in his numbers.

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On 11/2/2016 at 11:28 AM, NitzGuy said:

Yea he did don't kid yourself if we had only Mrazek last season we would not have made playoffs. Jimmy has single handedly won us some games in the last few seasons. He definitely has some confidence issues but without Jimmy our streak probably would have ended around 22.

 
 

And we'd be a better team right now because of it

 

In the end, neither goalie should be playing any more than 50 games this season. It's a s***ty, condensed schedule. There will be many back to backs and 3 games in 4 nights. Every team this year needs two quality goalies.

Edited by marcaractac

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20 hours ago, e_prime said:

I will give the Mraz-slappies this:  Blashill named Petr 'the starter' and is heir-apparent to the crease. 

He should get more starts than Howard.

BUT...

...until Howard is traded, and until Mrazek starts playing lights out elite level hockey, we've got a 1A/1B situation and if there's one thing that will keep us competitive it's using our goaltending depth.

Name calling?

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13 hours ago, Hockeymom1960 said:

Name calling?

Would you prefer "Howard-haters"?  Look.  I'm not slurping on either goalie's stick. Nor do I feel like anyone is getting the shaft from either of the duo.  Currently, they're both playing exceptionally well for what is needed with the team that plays in front of them.  I'm not going to count my chickens before they hatch with Mrazek, nor am I going to dismiss our average/flirts with all-star caliber veteran before he's traded or picked up in the expansion draft.  Either is folly. 

It's just not as black and white as many would like.

14 hours ago, marcaractac said:

And we'd be a better team right now because of it

Not if Holland traded all those firsts for two seconds.  :lol:

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So not a Jimmy fan, BUT, I think maybe Petr has gotten too comfortable now that he has been named #1.  As soon as he took over last season as the legit #1, it seemed he got a bit too cocky and he has been struggling ever since.  Maybe its time to play Jimmy for a 10 game stretch as the #1 and reiterate to Petr that nothing is given to you on a platter, and then maybe he'll re-find some focus to put him back on the track he was pre-birthday last season.  He may need to see that his job can be taken away as quick as he earned it.  Rough love...

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1 hour ago, LeftWinger said:

So not a Jimmy fan, BUT, I think maybe Petr has gotten too comfortable now that he has been named #1.  As soon as he took over last season as the legit #1, it seemed he got a bit too cocky and he has been struggling ever since.  Maybe its time to play Jimmy for a 10 game stretch as the #1 and reiterate to Petr that nothing is given to you on a platter, and then maybe he'll re-find some focus to put him back on the track he was pre-birthday last season.  He may need to see that his job can be taken away as quick as he earned it.  Rough love...

That can happen sometimes. When Mrazek was climbing the ladder from the Ottawa 67's in the OHL to the starting goaltender of the Detroit Red Wings (and did it quickly compared to past drafted goaltenders) he was fighting for it and playing hard to get it. Maybe now that he's reached the top he's let off the gas and relaxed too much. Time for a wake up call that starting NHL goaltenders can be out of the league very quickly if they don't play well, ala Bryzgalov after signing with Philly.

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17 minutes ago, chaps80 said:

That can happen sometimes. When Mrazek was climbing the ladder from the Ottawa 67's in the OHL to the starting goaltender of the Detroit Red Wings (and did it quickly compared to past drafted goaltenders) he was fighting for it and playing hard to get it. Maybe now that he's reached the top he's let off the gas and relaxed too much. Time for a wake up call that starting NHL goaltenders can be out of the league very quickly if they don't play well, ala Bryzgalov after signing with Philly.

Look at Jim Carey, went from winning the Vezina to pretty much disappearing.

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Exactly. Any goalie can have one great season, but there's only a handful every generation that can keep playing at top form for pretty much their entire careers. Highly doubt we'll ever see another Hasek or Brodeur.

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1 hour ago, chaps80 said:

Yeah Howard really stepped in today and got us the win. Lol

Yeah, that loss was totally on Jimmy.  :glare:

He let in two goals on how many shots?  How many of those shots that were stopped were quality scoring chances?

Well, I won't trouble anyone with actual numbers cuz I know stats can be confusing and whatnot , but needless to say, the number of quality scoring chances that Jimmy stopped was much larger than the number of quality scoring chances the team in front of him actually put up against Gustavsson.  Me old eyeballs told me so.

...but please, lets continue the narrative that Jimmy Howard is losing us games.  So that I can continue getting daily laughs.

Edited by e_prime
more snark needed.

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2 hours ago, kickazz said:

Yeah a 2-1 loss, your boy Mrazek would have made it 4-1 though. 

Yes he did play well, but a loss is a loss. It doesn't matter who is in net if the D sucks and there's no offence. It's not as if Mrazek is getting lit up every night. In the games he has allowed a few, alot of those were from defensive errors, or total lack of defence like the fourth goal in the WPG game. Zero defence on the play besides Errorsson who was  looking in the opposite direction. Howard is playing better numbers wise than Mrazek right now, but we all know that situation can easily be reversed. I'm happy he's playing well, but i know better than to trust in him to stay at those numbers, especially if he plays alot of games. I honestly don't get the trust some posters here have in him..what is it based off? How he played early in his career and four games this season?

 

1 hour ago, kliq said:

When you score 1 goal, you can't blame your goalie.

Nope. Even when you score two and suck defensively you can't.

2 hours ago, e_prime said:

Yeah, that loss was totally on Jimmy.  :glare:

He let in two goals on how many shots?  How many of those shots that were stopped were quality scoring chances?

Well, I won't trouble anyone with actual numbers cuz I know stats can be confusing and whatnot , but needless to say, the number of quality scoring chances that Jimmy stopped was much larger than the number of quality scoring chances the team in front of him actually put up against Gustavsson.  Me old eyeballs told me so.

...but please, lets continue the narrative that Jimmy Howard is losing us games.  So that I can continue getting daily laughs.

Who said he was losing the team games? I said he didn't get the win tonight.

Edited by chaps80

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