Be honest..

[e_prime 1,936]

I don't want us to be mired in mediocrity for the next 10 years, but I don't care about the Cup that much to have us suck for the next 8 years.

Yeah, I said it. 

[kliq 3,755]

2 hours ago, marcaractac said:

This is actually a good thing. Just missing the playoffs increases the chance of a top 3 pick. 

100% agree. Tanking should not be rewarded. 

[kliq 3,755]

1 hour ago, GMRwings1983 said:

If we're assuming tanking will equal Cup (and that assumption is the whole point of this thread), then I'm still choosing option one.  Tanking for 8 years would suck.

All the posts about how tanking doesn't necessarily equal a Cup are pointless.  We're talking hypotheticals here.  So would you guys be willing to tank if you knew we'd win another Cup in 10 years?  I wouldn't.  

Based on the way the poll is written, its only natural. He is essentially taking two approaches, and is saying would you rather do option A that will be successful, or option B that will be a failure, when it reality we have no clue how either option would actually turn out.

If I ran a poll saying:

"Would you rather the Wings re-tool on the fly and win a cup in 3 years" OR

"Would rather the Wings tank, draft an elite player (ie. a McDavid, Crosby type) but not make the playoffs or win a cup for the next decade like the Oilers" 

Its not exactly a mystery as to how people would vote.

Edited November 14, 2016 by kliq

[GMRwings1983 8,794]

52 minutes ago, kliq said:

Based on the way the poll is written, its only natural. He is essentially taking two approaches, and is saying would you rather do option A that will be successful, or option B that will be a failure, when it reality we have no clue how either option would actually turn out.

If I ran a poll saying:

"Would you rather the Wings re-tool on the fly and win a cup in 3 years" OR

"Would rather the Wings tank, draft an elite player (ie. a McDavid, Crosby type) but not make the playoffs or win a cup for the next decade like the Oilers" 

Its not exactly a mystery as to how people would vote.

Three years is very soon.  I'd be willing to strangle puppies if it meant the Wings winning a Cup in three years.  But I wouldn't be OK with missing the playoffs for eight straight years just to win another Cup.  Would be a miserable eight years.  

[Richdg 267]

I am not for "tanking" per sea. I am for playing our youth. Yes that will most likely lead to some bad seasons. But to win you have to have top talent. To get top talent there are 3 ways: draft and develop (the second half is the part teams fail at), trade-something that we refuse to do, and UFA-which is drying up and teams over pay for second tier players like we did with Weiss and Neilsson.

If you want to win championships in any North American sport, you have to have some high picks on your team. No one wins without them. The Oilers and islanders of the 80's had them, the RW's and Devils in the 90's had them, the Hawks/Kings/Pens have them today. The Habs have the most SC wins because they got the top 2 players out of Quebec every year before the draft.

Right now we don't and we look like a team that lacks top end talent. Yes Larkin, MANtha, and Svechnikov could become stars some day, but as of now they are not. Until they actually have 30 goal and 75 point seasons we can't call them that.

Now those that say there are no sure things, you are correct. There are none. Players get hurt-Lindros, others fail to develop, etc... About 2/3's of all 1st round picks become regular NHL players. But the same is true with trades and UFA's. Sport is filled with guys that get the big payday and stop performing. Injuries also happen, players are upset about being moved, etc...

The fact remains and no one can argue this point, the RW's need a major upgrade in talent. The best place to get that upgrade under any conditions is via the draft. We need 3-4 drafts were we are picking top 5-10 to find those guys. Or a GM willing to trade secondary players for stars. Better yet, we need both!

 

[ami 273]

So really the question is would you give up 8 years of playoff hockey for a chance to win the Cup after... No

Is there any guarantee of winning the Cup after 8 years? No (See that team in Edmonton)

So I will take first option any day of the week for one reason, making a playoff gives you a chance to win.

[marcaractac 3,963]

In the end, we have enough depth that if we were to acquire a couple of top 10 draft picks, there would be plenty of assets to make trades to fill holes. If the Wings keep drafting 15-20 at best, we'll be another 5 years of developing before contending again. One or two top picks significantly reduces that if we have a competent GM.

Best case scenario is having the playoff streak end, Holland getting fired as a result, and scoring in the draft lottery. Another 10 years of what we dealt with for the past 4, or sucking for 8 years are both garbage options. Suck for one or two and this team is competitive again. Luckily this team has the ability to suck without tanking on purpose. 

Blash and the beat writers will keep stressing about having to fix the mistakes the team makes. These mistakes are made because the team is overmatched most nights. The roster is just not that good right now. And with Trouba seemingly off the market, there seems to be no dman trades out there that helps the team in the future.  

[frankgrimes 1,836]

Options 2 but this needs to be done right. A guy like McDavid doesn't come along in every draft and a team has to be very lucky to get someone of that caliber but you can still draft very good players in the top 5 range. The key  part is developing them the right way. Someone like Monahan is a great example, he might not be elite but he is close to it, Mark Scheifele would be another one.

Anyhow since sooner or later a rebuild needs to happen option 2 for me.

[chaps80 1,591]

21 hours ago, marcaractac said:

The thing is, with the stockpiling of talent Holland has done over the last few years, this team could be a lottery team for 1 or 2years and be right back in the hunt. The depth is there, talent is there, we just lack that elite talent. Draft one or two guys in the top 10 (or even top 5), and the assets are there to make the moved needed to fix the defense. 

To sum things up, I'd be fully on board seeing the team suck for a shot at Nolan Patrick. If the streak ended in any of the last few years, I'd have been heartbroken. This season I just feel ready for it. As a fan, I am within a window where I am prepared for a basement season and a clean slate. This is because the alternative is to keep the streak going and be stuck in mediocrity for a bunch more years. 

This right here.

[Wing Across The Pond 196]

This also seems to presume that if the decision was made to tank a season in order to get picks, that players would necessarily agree with it. You can have the intention to have a losing season, but the players will either continue to play to win, or will ask/need to be moved. The second just solves half the problem anyway if it dumps the more horrible contracts and frees up space. For me the whole question is moot. The teams mentioned that have tanked in the past, what were they like before they did? The real comparison is to say, would Chicago tank with 36yo Kane and Toews still earning 6m+ a year?

My opinion would be a middle ground of seeing which contracts we want rid of (can afford to lose) and trade them to cap floor teams to picks. KH now seems to be trying too hard to get a return on pieces he overvalues, when he probably needs to swallow some pride and say "fine I'll take a 4th/5th (maybe even lower) for a guy like Helm". If he shops players around and nothing comes back, they're not worth what he wants for them unfortunately. Example, we could get a few good picks for Howard from a team in need of a proven starter. If they're not looking to deal players they'd probably give some picks. Goodness knows we've probably got enough kids to fill gaps without needing to bring players back the other way in a trade.

As was said early on... these are two options, but there's a lot of space in between.

Am I right in thinking as well, that Z isn't on a 35+ contract? He could retire this off-season and we wouldn't have the cap hit?

EDIT: Soz, actually did my own research for once... from what I can tell, next year we'd be okay on Cap Recapture penalties for Z (since his AAV is lower than his salary) but the next three years we'd be screwed - around 2.5m year 1, then 5m, 5m. What's the likelihood his back injury flairs up and he's on LTIR in a few seasons?
EDIT AGAIN: Was given slightly misleading/confused explanations of cap recapture. We'd be stuck for about 3m/year (around 11m difference on overall salary to AAV, divided by 4 years remaining). This is why I am not, and never will be, a GM

Edited November 14, 2016 by Wing Across The Pond

[kickazz 5,459]

3 hours ago, marcaractac said:

Best case scenario is having the playoff streak end, Holland getting fired as a result, and scoring in the draft lottery. Another 10 years of what we dealt with for the past 4, or sucking for 8 years are both garbage options. Suck for one or two and this team is competitive again. Luckily this team has the ability to suck without tanking on purpose. 

Pure speculation dude. If we miss the playoffs the excuse will be "The parity is too high but we were right there in the mix of making the playoffs" and Holland doesn't end up getting fired. Sucking for one or two years we could become competitive again assuming we actually get a really high pick. Even with Holland fired, I doubt the Illitches would be okay with tanking. This organization would never accept defeat or sinking rock bottom because the owners don't seem to have that mentality. 

[DickieDunn 2,571]

I'll be the first one to tell you that tanking is overrated, but IF they did decided to tank, these contracts would not be an issue. Helm can easily be traded, Abby can probably be traded, and Franzen is on LTIR so his contract is a moot point. I even think you could move Nielson if he waived his NMC which in the event of a tank job im sure he would.
Either way, IF they did go this route and got lucky and picked the right players in 2017, 2018, and 2019 by the time these kids were due anything substantial cap wise, ready to contend and needed to be surrounded by others, all the other contracts you listed would be off the books anyways. Its not like a successful tank job takes only a couple years.

Who the F would want any of those players on those contracts?

[kliq 3,755]

12 minutes ago, kickazz said:

Pure speculation dude. If we miss the playoffs the excuse will be "The parity is too high but we were right there in the mix of making the playoffs" and Holland doesn't end up getting fired. Sucking for one or two years we could become competitive again assuming we actually get a really high pick. Even with Holland fired, I doubt the Illitches would be okay with tanking. This organization would never accept defeat or sinking rock bottom because the owners don't seem to have that mentality. 

You know whats actually going to be key is seeing the intentions of the owners....what the Tigers do. With all the talk about potentially trading away Miggy and JV, if ownership decides to pull the trigger it could be foreshadowing for the Wings. I would put money on it that Holland does not have the green light right now to trade away the vets and do any type of not on the fly re-build. I believe his mandate is to make the playoffs. It will be interesting to see.

15 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Who the F would want any of those players on those contracts?

Who? If we are talking Helm probably one of the other five teams that were reported to have offered him more term/money then the Wings.

Abby....I think you could find some suitors, I dont feel like looking through every teams roster/cap space right now to find out. Remember, not everyone has an opinion as low as yours on him.

Nielson, I could see the NYI taking him back if they have the capspace.

Either way, its a moot point.

[marcaractac 3,963]

1 hour ago, kickazz said:

Pure speculation dude. If we miss the playoffs the excuse will be "The parity is too high but we were right there in the mix of making the playoffs" and Holland doesn't end up getting fired. Sucking for one or two years we could become competitive again assuming we actually get a really high pick. Even with Holland fired, I doubt the Illitches would be okay with tanking. This organization would never accept defeat or sinking rock bottom because the owners don't seem to have that mentality. 

 

There comes a point when a team will finish in the bottom 10 and simply have no say in the matter. This team is headed that way, judging the product on the ice I've been watching. By no means does that mean I think the sky is falling. In the end, I think a clean slate is what this franchise desperately needs right now. I just hope that come trade deadline, if they aren't in a playoff spot, that they are far enough out of one where selling is the only option. If the streak continues, so will the 5 game first round exits. 

[LeftWinger 4,961]

We've made the playoffs for 25 years, won 4 Cups. Never tanking to get a higher pick. We need someone who doesn't waste draft picks on 5'9 110lb. D-men from Albania. We need to groom two handfuls of kids by letting them play, trade the players who can't keep up, make our team a hell of a lot more attractive to UFA'S than it is now. We built on the fly in the 90's, we can rebuild on the fly now. But we have to have a gm who isn't afraid to cut loses when he needs too and doesn't hand out contracts that don't reward production. Holland has to put up or get the f*** out!

[kliq 3,755]

I dont think this fan base could handle a complete tank job and re-build to be honest. If Holland did do that I think that fans would call for his head even worse then now.

The perfect example is back in June. I cant tell you how many posters, radio callers, people I spoke to were saying that if Holland didn't trade Datsyuk's contract he deserved to be fired.

What those statements alone told me is that people wanted to Wings to re-tool for for 2016/17. The thought of keeping his cap-hit even if it meant sacrificing the future was something most fans wanted.

[xault 272]

 

40 minutes ago, LeftWinger said:

We've made the playoffs for 25 years, won 4 Cups. Never tanking to get a higher pick. We need someone who doesn't waste draft picks on 5'9 110lb. D-men from Albania. We need to groom two handfuls of kids by letting them play, trade the players who can't keep up, make our team a hell of a lot more attractive to UFA'S than it is now. We built on the fly in the 90's, we can rebuild on the fly now. But we have to have a gm who isn't afraid to cut loses when he needs too and doesn't hand out contracts that don't reward production. Holland has to put up or get the f*** out!

Only reason the "90's on the fly rebuild" worked is, we had a team with players that other players around the league wanted to play with/on and no cap. 

Right now, no one taking a pay cut to play with Z in the top 6 or Helm on the 3rd line or Green on the top D pair. No one gonna take a pay cut to play with theses guys. As much as I like Z, that time is over.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Who? If we are talking Helm probably one of the other five teams that were reported to have offered him more term/money then the Wings.
Abby....I think you could find some suitors, I dont feel like looking through every teams roster/cap space right now to find out. Remember, not everyone has an opinion as low as yours on him.
Nielson, I could see the NYI taking him back if they have the capspace.
Either way, its a moot point.

Five teams wanted him at that money and term just like Cleary had a three year deal with Philly. I don't buy that.

[LeftWinger 4,961]

1 hour ago, xault said:

 

Only reason the "90's on the fly rebuild" worked is, we had a team with players that other players around the league wanted to play with/on and no cap. 

Right now, no one taking a pay cut to play with Z in the top 6 or Helm on the 3rd line or Green on the top D pair. No one gonna take a pay cut to play with theses guys. As much as I like Z, that time is over.

Which is to my point. Make this place more attractive to play. Not by giving mediocre players long, over paid contracts.

[kliq 3,755]

4 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

 

Five teams wanted him at that money and term just like Cleary had a three year deal with Philly. I don't buy that.

 

I don't buy the whole conspiracy angle. Why would so many journalists lie, we are not talking bloggers here, we are talking tsn guys. 

I guess its easier to cry conspiracy then to admit you may have been wrong.

[Richdg 267]

5 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

We've made the playoffs for 25 years, won 4 Cups. Never tanking to get a higher pick. We need someone who doesn't waste draft picks on 5'9 110lb. D-men from Albania. We need to groom two handfuls of kids by letting them play, trade the players who can't keep up, make our team a hell of a lot more attractive to UFA'S than it is now. We built on the fly in the 90's, we can rebuild on the fly now. But we have to have a gm who isn't afraid to cut loses when he needs too and doesn't hand out contracts that don't reward production. Holland has to put up or get the f*** out!

I swear some of us most be losing our minds. When we made our first cup in 95 and finally won in 97, that was the end of 12+ years of rebuilding the team. It wasn't done on the fly and yes we had some bad years along the way.

Lets review the roster:

Stevie 4th pick in 83.

Kozlov 45th pick in 90.

Shanahan 2nd pick in 87. Picked up in a trade for Primeau 3rd pick in 90.

Lapointe 10th pick in 91.

McCarty 46th pick in 92.

Lidstrom 53rd pick in 89.

Pushor 32nd pick in 91.

Ward 5th pick in 91.

Murphy 4th pick in 80.

Point is it took years to bring all of those guys in and develop the team. Then there was the Russians all of which were drafted much lower than their talent warrented because no one knew if we could get them out from behind the iron curtian. Jimmy D did a GREAT job drafting, trading, and signing UFA's. Yes this was before the cap, but everyone was also in the same boat.

 

[kliq 3,755]

42 minutes ago, Richdg said:

I swear some of us most be losing our minds. When we made our first cup in 95 and finally won in 97, that was the end of 12+ years of rebuilding the team. It wasn't done on the fly and yes we had some bad years along the way.

Lets review the roster:

Stevie 4th pick in 83.

Kozlov 45th pick in 90.

Shanahan 2nd pick in 87. Picked up in a trade for Primeau 3rd pick in 90.

Lapointe 10th pick in 91.

McCarty 46th pick in 92.

Lidstrom 53rd pick in 89.

Pushor 32nd pick in 91.

Ward 5th pick in 91.

Murphy 4th pick in 80.

Point is it took years to bring all of those guys in and develop the team. Then there was the Russians all of which were drafted much lower than their talent warrented because no one knew if we could get them out from behind the iron curtian. Jimmy D did a GREAT job drafting, trading, and signing UFA's. Yes this was before the cap, but everyone was also in the same boat.

 

So essentially we drafted 4 players top 10 (Yzerman, LaPointe, Ward, Primeau) and of those four, two (if you count Primeau as Shanny though dont forget Coffey was involved in that trade) were major parts of our cup wins. Everyone else and the majority were late round picks which kind of goes against your narrative. You can't count  Murphy as a high pick, we traded for him. That would be like counting Vanek as a high pick now. 

I agree with you that it took years to develop as a team, but that is really no different then what the Wings are doing now as far as homegrown talent growing and maturing together goes, the big difference is that our players back then were much better. The major reason why they were better, because our foreign scouting was the best in the NHL by a mile.

You can say the 1997 and 1998 cups were due to "re-building", I believe they were due to our ability to draft amazing players in the late rounds. Something that would have been done regardless of how bad we were at any particular time.

[Juklitz 85]

38 minutes ago, kliq said:

I believe they were due to our ability to draft amazing players in the late rounds. Something that would have been done regardless of how bad we were

Should be, but.. Dacjuk and Hank were the last gems from aprox150OA+ we had. Holmstrom in ´94. So our proclaimed ability to pick gems from end of queue is like 20yrs old.

List of active roster and real league caliber 150OA+ picks since 2000:

Jonathan Ericsson

Alexej Marchenko

What is league bottom result. And this has nothing to do with tanking (see Hawks), obviously.

[kliq 3,755]

24 minutes ago, Juklitz said:

Should be, but.. Dacjuk and Hank were the last gems from aprox150OA+ we had. Holmstrom in ´94. So our proclaimed ability to pick gems from end of queue is like 20yrs old.

List of active roster and real league caliber 150OA+ picks since 2000:

Jonathan Ericsson

Alexej Marchenko

What is league bottom result. And this has nothing to do with tanking (see Hawks), obviously.

I am not 100% sure what you are trying to say, but I am not arguing that we still are the best at drafting overseas talent in the league. Clearly the rest of the league caught up.

Edited November 15, 2016 by kliq

[Juklitz 85]

1 minute ago, kliq said:

but I am not arguing

That´s ok, sorry  for confusion. Rather confirming your idea above with true fact we failed in last seventeen years with our low picks.

Scouting become balanced through the league, I believe it´s nearly impossible to repeat Dacjuk-like pick nowadays with "who´s that guy?" gem in 7th round. 

It´s my way how answer original topic point. 1 or 2? Ok, you can be real contender with low picks, but we need to prove our picks better, not giving them shot after 5 yrs of OHL/AHL/whatever... I mean, make this process quick as possible and don´t hesitate to make some mistakes - BUT mitigate anchor long term veteran contracts like Abby, Helm, Ericsson etc., keep roster flexible for future changes.  

If not possible, then suck and tank. I don´t like this idea either. Honestly, I don´t like Hawks´s way as I can remember them as a total league garbage and I don´t want to see Wings to be a team without honor because of waiting for another Austcklas McJesustzky.