Our Young Players

[kliq 3,755]

There has been a lot of talk on the board lately about re-building, building on the fly, tanking etc. That's not what I want to talk about as that as well as Blashill and Holland is already going on in every other thread. I want to discuss our current collection of young players, and what the majority here think they will become.

What do you think the outcome for Larkin, Mantha, Mrazek, AA, Jurco, Bertuzzi, Sproul, Marchenko, XO, Coreau, Hicketts  Russo, Svechnikov, Cholowski, Saarijarvi, Turgeon, Holmstrom or anyone I didnt list and is in our organization and younger then 25 will be in 5 years?

Do you think anyone on this list can become elite? A star? Is this a group of good secondary players? All third Liners? Mostly busts? A combination?   

Thoughts?

 

[kickazz 5,459]

Realistically? Larkin and Mantha will be a notch below "elite" level at best.

Optimistically? Larkin becomes the next Zetterberg and Mantha becomes a tad bit better than Franzen was.

Pessimistically? They all suck for eternity. 

The rest I have no idea about. Marchenko is about as good as he will be most likely. 

I actually think AA has a higher potential than Larkin does but even that I can't really back up with anything besides just watching the way he plays. But his previous numbers speak against that. 

Edited December 19, 2016 by kickazz

[frankgrimes 1,836]

I think Larkin and Mantha will be a notch above everyone else.
Larkin has the potential to become a solid top 6 center maybe not elite but hopefully close to it.
If Mantha could become a bigger, feisty version of Kessel that would be fantastic but sadly that might be pushing it.
Sproul, Marchenko and XO at best will be second third pairing tweeners.
In terms of Lil Bert and company really no idea but I guess something like a gritty bottom 6 guy should be realistic.

[Son of a Wing 1,644]

Really looking forward to seeing how Givani Smith develops.

[kliq 3,755]

2 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

On a good team, our players slot out like this:

 

________-_______-________

Mantha-Larkin-Svechnikov

Frk-Athanasiou-Jurco

Bertuzzi-________-Callahan

 

_______-_______

Russo-_______

Sproul-Ouellet

Marchenko/Hicketts

I dont think a good team in 2016 has Frk on 3rd line and Russo in the top 4. Frk will likely never get there, and Russo is just not ready from all reports I have read.

Edited December 19, 2016 by kliq

[kliq 3,755]

3 hours ago, kickazz said:

Realistically? Larkin and Mantha will be a notch below "elite" level at best.

Optimistically? Larkin becomes the next Zetterberg and Mantha becomes a tad bit better than Franzen was.

Pessimistically? They all suck for eternity. 

The rest I have no idea about. Marchenko is about as good as he will be most likely. 

I actually think AA has a higher potential than Larkin does but even that I can't really back up with anything besides just watching the way he plays. But his previous numbers speak against that. 

In regards to Larkin and Mantha, what I was going to write pretty much lines up identically to what you already put. Same for Marchenko. You may very well be right about AA, the guy is a good player and you can tell by watching him that he has something that alot of kids don't. I dont see him ever becoming elite, but I can see him as a very good 2C.

I am a bit higher then most on XO, I dont see him being a top pair or guy or even top 4, but I think he is going to end up being a very good third paring guy. I think Sproul has top 4 upside, he brings something offensively that none of the others in his age group do, hopefully he can get better on the defensive side of things.

I worry about Jurco, I feel that the potential is there, but I just dont see it coming to fruition on the Wings. I hope I am wrong, and it wouldn't shock me if I was, but he is a guy I see being traded at some point for a pick, or being lost on waivers. 

I think Bertuzzi is going to be a solid 4th line guy, nothing more nothing less, though I admit I have barely seen him play.

Mrazek is the one I could literally see going in any direction. I could see him being a Vezina quality goaltender, a solid above average starter, a below average starter, or someone who fades away never to accomplish anything. Gun to my head, I think he is going to end up being something special, I just hope the coaches on the Wings can bring it out of him. Only time will tell.

The rest I dont know much about and havent really seen play. I just cross my fingers that one of those D-men turn into something unexpected and can become the #1 D-man that we so desperately need which is very possible given how many of the elite d-men in this league our low end picks. 

[krsmith17 7,191]

Larkin - 1st line center.

Mantha - 1st line winger.

Athanasiou - 2nd line center / winger.

Svechnikov - 2nd line winger.

Jurco - 3rd line winger.

Bertuzzi - 3rd / 4th line winger.

Smith - 3rd / 4th line winger.

Turgeon - 3rd / 4th line center.

Sadowy - 3rd / 4th line winger.

Nastasiuk - 4th line winger / bust.

Frk - 3rd line winger / bust.

Nosek - 3rd line center / bust.

Holmstrom - 3rd line center / winger / bust.

Cholowski - 1st / 2nd pair defenseman.

Sproul - 1st / 2nd pair defenseman.

Ouellet - 2nd / 3rd pair defenseman.

Russo - 2nd / 3rd pair defenseman.

Hicketts - 2nd / 3rd pair defenseman.

Renouf - 3rd pair defenseman / bust.

Sambrook - 3rd pair defenseman / bust.

Marchenko - 3rd pair defenseman.

Saarijarvi - 2nd / 3rd pair defenseman / bust.

Hronek - 2nd / 3rd pair defenseman / bust.

Mrazek - number one goaltender.

Coreau - starter / very good backup goaltender.

5 hours ago, kliq said:

I dont think a good team in 2016 has Frk on 3rd line and Russo in the top 4. Frk will likely never get there, and Russo is just not ready from all reports I have read.

I could be wrong, but I thought he / she just meant that's where they should slot in the future, not necessarily where they should be right now...

So of the players I have listed, I see something like this...

Mantha - Larkin - _______

Svechnikov - Athanasiou - _______

Jurco - Nosek - Smith

Bertuzzi - Turgeon - Sadowy

 

_______ - _______

Cholowski - Sproul

Ouellet - Russo

 

Mrazek

Coreau

 

Obviously not everyone will make it, some may surprise, and there will be some veterans mixed in, but that's give or take where I see the future of our young players...

[GMRwings1983 8,794]

Don't tell me you guys have given up on Riley Sheahan.  

[kipwinger 8,524]

11 hours ago, kickazz said:

Realistically? Larkin and Mantha will be a notch below "elite" level at best.

Optimistically? Larkin becomes the next Zetterberg and Mantha becomes a tad bit better than Franzen was.

Pessimistically? They all suck for eternity. 

The rest I have no idea about. Marchenko is about as good as he will be most likely. 

I actually think AA has a higher potential than Larkin does but even that I can't really back up with anything besides just watching the way he plays. But his previous numbers speak against that. 

I think AA is better than Larkin too.  Not that this means Larkin is bad or anything.  But they're both pretty good defensively, so I'd call that a wash.  Larkin scores more total points, but that's probably because he gets more minutes.  AA scores at a better rate than Larkin per 60 minutes, so he's probably the more dangerous offensive player during any game.  I think these two both have it in them to be high end NHL centers.  They just both need to A) Mature physically, and B) Actually play the center position and gets some reps. 

Otherwise, Mantha will be a good (but not elite) power sniper.  Someone like James Neil comes to mind, and I'm not scoffing at that kind of production.  Same with Mrazek, I think he'll be good but not "elite".  Then again I don't think most goalies who are labeled "elite" actually are (other than Carey Price obviously).  I think the two biggest X-factors are Sproul and Frk.  Sproul is quietly having a very good rookie season on the blue line and should only keep getting better.  Pair that with his tool set and he's got a real nice upside (wouldn't surprise me to see him get up in the 40-50 point range one day).  I don't think Frk will be elite either, but with his tool set and size I could see him being a very dangerous 3rd line winger/PP specialist.  Someone along the lines of a Michael Ryder type, putting up 15-20 goals in a limited role.  That would be huge from a guy nobody thought would even be in the NHL. 

[GoalieManPat 1,007]

Larkin and Mantha are the two with the most potential but neither will be elite. Nobody in the Wings system currently can I see truly becoming an elite top 10 player in their position. A year and a half ago I would have said Mrazek was a definite to be elite but really he hasn't progressed since coming up. The rest are all 3rd line and below guys. Maybe one might excel and be a proper 2nd line player. Our young guys are the best option right now but the future certainly isnt spectacular looking.

[GMRwings1983 8,794]

2 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

I have.  He doesn't have the speed needed to be effective.

But he's big and Canadian.  He must be a rough player who hits, fights and creates space for everyone on his line.  

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Larkin should be a top line center.  Mantha could be about as good as Franzen, meaning he'll score 25 goals a year and people will still hate him because he doesn't play like Shanahan.  I like AA for his speed and ability to disrupt games, but he needs to get a coach who doesn't bench him for a bad period.  I think he's always going to be kind of a risk/reward type.  I think most of the rest of the guys who have been pro before this season are most likely bottom half of the roster guys at best, many of them will never be regular NHL players.  Svechnikov might be a top 6 guy.  Cholowski who knows.  Frk isn't an NHL player.

[Hairy Lime 234]

 

6 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Larkin should be a top line center.  Mantha could be about as good as Franzen, meaning he'll score 25 goals a year and people will still hate him because he doesn't play like Shanahan.  I like AA for his speed and ability to disrupt games, but he needs to get a coach who doesn't bench him for a bad period.  I think he's always going to be kind of a risk/reward type.  I think most of the rest of the guys who have been pro before this season are most likely bottom half of the roster guys at best, many of them will never be regular NHL players.  Svechnikov might be a top 6 guy.  Cholowski who knows.  Frk isn't an NHL player.

Mantha has a little snarl. He'll never be as gritty as Shanny or the fighter he was, and certainly not the goal-scorer he was, but I've seen glimpses of an edge in his game. He's a big boy; add a little more muscle to his frame and wait and see. I can see him developing into a player along the lines of Backes. But I'm more interested his goal-scoring. Score 25-30 and I'll be happy. 

As for Frk not being an NHL player, I'm not so sure. I watched a few Carolina games after he got picked up, and he wasn't so bad. He got schooled on one play against Detroit, I think, and that got him re-waived. I think Carolina gave up on him too soon. I'm kinda glad we grabbed him. See how he develops this year in GR after a taste and some tough lessons in the NHL. He may be a keeper. 

[Dabura 12,207]

Something I've been musing about:

Say you put young Datsyuk and young Zetterberg on this season's Wings, and say you put 2016's Larkin and Mantha and Athanasiou on one of those mid-2000s Wings teams. (So, the mid-2000 team would have Larkin and Mantha and Athanasiou instead of young Datsyuk and young Zetterberg, and this season's team would have young Datsyuk and young Zetterberg instead of Larkin, Mantha, and Athanasiou.) Would Larkin, Mantha, and Athanasiou (or any one or two of them) look like much better players? Would they be putting up more points? Would Datsyuk and Zetterberg look like lesser players? Would we be saying what most people are saying about Larkin, Mantha, Athanasiou -- specifically, that "They're good, but they probably won't ever be truly elite players"? Would playing on middling teams possibly prevent Datsyuk and Zetterberg from reaching the heights that they did ultimately reach?

I guess what I'm getting at is the notion that players don't exist, perform, develop in a vacuum. That the team(s) you play for and the talent you're surrounded by matters. So, like, I believe Larkin, Mantha, and Athanasiou all have the potential to be elite NHLers, but if the Wings are an overall crappy team for the next 3-5+ years, it's possible that that reality might prevent them from reaching those heights. (Or, maybe they're simply not that good.) I suppose that's the thing about truly special, can't-miss lottery pick kids like Ovechkin and Crosby and Malkin and Toews and Kane and Stamkos and Tavares and McDavid and Eichel and Matthews and Laine. Put them on any team and they're going to look phenomenal, right from the get-go.

Maybe a better hypothetical: swap this season's Larkin and this season's David Pastrnak. Is Larkin -- playing alongside two great Bruins forwards -- putting up the numbers Pastrnak is putting up? Is Pastrnak -- playing on a feeble Wings team -- putting up Larkin's "disappointing" (10 goals, 2 assists) numbers?

Just some food for thought.

[kickazz 5,459]

5 hours ago, GMRwings1983 said:

Don't tell me you guys have given up on Riley Sheahan.  

Don't bring that clown up in this thread. He's an embarrassment.

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

I think Larkin and Mrazek have the greatest potential to become elite. I notice that everyone seems to have cooled off on Mrazek after this year's performance, but I really don't think he's been bad and still has the really high potential that seemed to be a consensus before this season.

As for Larkin's potential vs. Mantha and AA, I really like the other two - and AA especially - , but I think it's easy to forget that Larkin's 20 and 2 years younger.

Really don't think we'll ever see Frk on the team or in the NHL elsewhere. 

[GoalieManPat 1,007]

1 hour ago, PavelValerievichDatsyuk said:

 I notice that everyone seems to have cooled off on Mrazek after this year's performance, but I really don't think he's been bad and still has the really high potential that seemed to be a consensus before this season.

Of goalies that have played at-least 15 games he is 30th in GA and 32nd in save%. After the first two weeks hes been pretty bad. If he got the lack of goal support that Howard has gotten hed only have a couple wins. 

[Hockeymom1960 5,107]

1 hour ago, GoalieManPat said:

Of goalies that have played at-least 15 games he is 30th in GA and 32nd in save%. After the first two weeks hes been pretty bad. If he got the lack of goal support that Howard has gotten hed only have a couple wins. 

I really believe he has the potential to be an elite goalie and Vezina winner in the future.

[PavelValerievichDatsyuk 1,935]

1 hour ago, GoalieManPat said:

Of goalies that have played at-least 15 games he is 30th in GA and 32nd in save%. After the first two weeks hes been pretty bad. If he got the lack of goal support that Howard has gotten hed only have a couple wins. 

Maybe I should have said: hasn't been that bad that you should lose faith in his potential. 

As for your stats, they just say to me that he's not a #1 yet (there are 30 teams  and 30th and 32nd does count him just on the outskirts of that group). Also, struggling teams will not be kind to goalie's stats (I know someone will throw Howard's stats at me, but he's been close to spectacular so far)

Anyway, we are talking about potential in this thread and not considering their current level as the plateau. If you were: AA has 6 points - 1 less points than Helm (7), and with 1 more game played (18) - and Mantha 9 points in the same # of games as Helm (17). People praise their play this year with the assumed qualifier at this point in their career. In the same way, I say Mrazek hasn't been bad for this point in his career. 

[Richdg 267]

The younger players and their development is all that matter atm. How many make it? Of course we will still have some old vets on the payroll like Neilsson, Abby, and dekeyser. I wouldn't bet agianst Nyquist,  Helm, and Tatar all being resigned by then as well......

 

[kliq 3,755]

1 minute ago, Richdg said:

The younger players and their development is all that matter atm. How many make it? Of course we will still have some old vets on the payroll like Neilsson, Abby, and dekeyser. I wouldn't bet agianst Nyquist,  Helm, and Tatar all being resigned by then as well......

 

Are you talking in 5 years from now?

[Richdg 267]

6 hours ago, kliq said:

Are you talking in 5 years from now?

Yes. 5 years from now is the 2021/2022 season. Neilsson, Abby, and dekeyser are all signed through that season. Neilsson will be 37 that year, Abby will be 34, and Dekeyser will be 31. In 2 years Nyquist's contract will be up for renewal. Will anyone be surprised if he gets resigned? I will not be. Nyquist will be 32 for the 2021/22 season. Tatar is a RFA this summer. Again, is anyone going to be surprised if he is resigned this summer? Nope. Tatar will be 31 in the 2021/22 season. Helm is the most questionable of these guys due to his long injury history. He will be 34 at that point. But his current deal runs through the 2020/21 season and if he is healthy I wouldn't bet against him resigning. If Holland is still the GM for most of the next/all of the next 5 seasons these guys being around is almost 100% guaranteed.

[Richdg 267]

Now as for the thoughts of this thread. Our young players. I am not going to go through every guy that the RW's own the rights too. Untill they play pro hockey in North America there is no way of even guessing what ones make it. But I will go through some of the names and what I see.

Forwards:

Mantha and Svechnikov-in many ways these guys are twins. Both have great size, good speed, and are natural goal scorers. In a good offensive system (not one that requires them to come back below the faceoff dot to play D) they are potential 30+ goal per year guys. Both are also good passers. Both should be in the 27-33 goal and 55-65 points per year range. Those are number 1 line type of numbers.

Larkin-he is a number 2 C with a chance to be a number 1 C. Good size, great speed, great effort and will score 25-30 goals per year. But will he become a good setup guy/passer? That is the biggest question about him. if he is putting up 25-30 goal seasons with 55-65 points, those are #2 C numbers. Can he get to 25-30 goals and 75+ points per year?

AA-He is just a step behind Larkin offensively, but has the same question: Can be become a play maker? 20-25 goals should be the norm. But can he get to 30 assists per year? 20-25 goals with 45-55 points are #3 type numbers. Can he get to 60+ points?

Givani Smith-yes he is still in Junior. But he is a guy that if healthy will become a fan favorite over the next 3 years. he is somewhere between McCarty and Abby. Same type of size: 6-2/210, very good speed, and loves to throw his body around. This year (his 3rd in Junior) he is scoring. I think 15-20 goals per year with 40ish points and 120+ PIMs is a reasonable standard for him.

Jurco-the mystery player. He has good size, very good speed, plays all 200ft of the ice and has shown the ability to score in the AHL. Watching him play I see a guy that should be a 18-22 goal per year guy. But to date he hasn't done it. Maybe he will, maybe he will not. He has about 1.5 more years to figure it out, otherwise he becomes a bust. There is talent there, now it needs to turn into production.

Sheahan-He is and will remain a good 4th line C. Good size, good skater, plays good defense. Has very little offensive talent. if he is used 10-12 mins per game as a checking C he can be a very good player. using him more than that and in roles other than that makes him look bad. STOP DOING IT! Let him be what he is: Checking line C and be happy with it.

All the other F's in our system are at best AHL players/checking line grinder types. I don't see any that can become top 6 players. Yes I am sure there will be a surprise development, just like I am sure of one the above guys fails.

I will do the defenders/Goalies later.

 

[xault 272]

I don't think we have a single forward that will be become "elite". Mantha and Larkin will be top 6 players. I don't see this elite center in Larkin most people do, hell he doesn't even play center now when the rest of the players around his age that are centers, are playing center. 

As for Dman, the same can be said about them. Not one of them will be elite and will be lucky if one of them is a solid top 4.

When it comes to our goalies, maybe Mrazek will become elite, but at this point I doubt it. With so many bad contracts unitl 2020 plus. He will fall victim to bad team after bad team around him. 

Regardless I hope I am wrong and will jump for joy if so..

[Richdg 267]

3 hours ago, Richdg said:

Now as for the thoughts of this thread. Our young players. I am not going to go through every guy that the RW's own the rights too. Untill they play pro hockey in North America there is no way of even guessing what ones make it. But I will go through some of the names and what I see.

Forwards:

Mantha and Svechnikov-in many ways these guys are twins. Both have great size, good speed, and are natural goal scorers. In a good offensive system (not one that requires them to come back below the faceoff dot to play D) they are potential 30+ goal per year guys. Both are also good passers. Both should be in the 27-33 goal and 55-65 points per year range. Those are number 1 line type of numbers.

Larkin-he is a number 2 C with a chance to be a number 1 C. Good size, great speed, great effort and will score 25-30 goals per year. But will he become a good setup guy/passer? That is the biggest question about him. if he is putting up 25-30 goal seasons with 55-65 points, those are #2 C numbers. Can he get to 25-30 goals and 75+ points per year?

AA-He is just a step behind Larkin offensively, but has the same question: Can be become a play maker? 20-25 goals should be the norm. But can he get to 30 assists per year? 20-25 goals with 45-55 points are #3 type numbers. Can he get to 60+ points?

Givani Smith-yes he is still in Junior. But he is a guy that if healthy will become a fan favorite over the next 3 years. he is somewhere between McCarty and Abby. Same type of size: 6-2/210, very good speed, and loves to throw his body around. This year (his 3rd in Junior) he is scoring. I think 15-20 goals per year with 40ish points and 120+ PIMs is a reasonable standard for him.

Jurco-the mystery player. He has good size, very good speed, plays all 200ft of the ice and has shown the ability to score in the AHL. Watching him play I see a guy that should be a 18-22 goal per year guy. But to date he hasn't done it. Maybe he will, maybe he will not. He has about 1.5 more years to figure it out, otherwise he becomes a bust. There is talent there, now it needs to turn into production.

Sheahan-He is and will remain a good 4th line C. Good size, good skater, plays good defense. Has very little offensive talent. if he is used 10-12 mins per game as a checking C he can be a very good player. using him more than that and in roles other than that makes him look bad. STOP DOING IT! Let him be what he is: Checking line C and be happy with it.

All the other F's in our system are at best AHL players/checking line grinder types. I don't see any that can become top 6 players. Yes I am sure there will be a surprise development, just like I am sure of one the above guys fails.

I will do the defenders/Goalies later.

 

A couple of more things about our F's.

1. They are all LHed. No RHed shots to be found.

2. Our current defensive first system is stunting their growth.

3. AA and Larkin need to play C to become good C's.

4. Of the other F's in the system the guys most likely to make it and become NHL players-as checkers are: Helm, Glendening, Lil Bert, Turgeon, and that is about it. I doubt the others ever even make it to the NHL. I hope some prove me wrong.