Percent chance of Playoffs or Potential High Pick

[AtlantaHotWings 987]

Why not put a new thread out here could be making the playoffs or FINALLY we get a great pick thread. 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

and another happy source...if you are looking for a pick. 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Detroit.html

based on above they must win at least 25 of the next 44 to have a realistic shot. 

Edited January 5, 2017 by AtlantaHotWings
url not pasted

[NerveDamage 4,176]

6.3% of making the playoffs, eh?

[MabusIncarnate 5,344]

I hate the term "Tanking", I don't think it's very realistic, I don't think players would ever be encouraged to slack off and not play to their highest level to secure a lower spot in the rankings. With that said, I think it's time to really get a strong look at what we have in Grand Rapids, call up a few names they didn't even consider at the beginning of the season. Give Bert Jr. some more NHL experience, and discover who has potential value, who is a career AHL player, and see what are pieces are and are capable of at an NHL level. 

Give guys like Ott a couple games off, and focus on the future. AA and Sproul should never be a healthy scratch again for the remainder of the season. Z is having ongoing back problems, get him out of the top 6 and cut his minutes. Let's make the top 6 Larkin, AA, Mantha, Nyquist, Tatar, and Nielsen and keep them up there. Develop them together, generate some chemistry and determine overall value. That should be the core that is focused on, get Nyquist and Tatar going and create some trade value. Keep Nielsen around, he's signed, he's a veteran, and he's a playmaker that can get players scoring goals. 

Sacrifice a few more wins constructively by exploring the youth, getting our future maximum ice time and exposure, and start building toward the future instead of dwelling on making the playoffs, giving guys who only have a year or two left in the tank top minutes, and focus on the rebuild. We can get a better draft pick, respectfully send away the streak and help the upcoming seasons more by aiming more toward the important factors of creating a successful team.

[GoalieManPat 1,007]

The wings are tanking. Not on purpose though. They just are really bad.

[Jacksoni 418]

6.3, huh? I'm all doom and gloom and have been raving about us going down but I wouldn't say it would be that low. Without any calculations I'd have guessed 15-25%, that with a decent bag of statistics courses in my luggage.

Take that stat with a grain of salt or two.

Edit: I may go on a rant about statistics and (not)sports, complete with sources of dry book reading if this thread tickles me.

Edited January 5, 2017 by Jacksoni

[GMRwings1983 8,794]

1 hour ago, MabusIncarnate said:

I hate the term "Tanking", I don't think it's very realistic, I don't think players would ever be encouraged to slack off and not play to their highest level to secure a lower spot in the rankings. With that said, I think it's time to really get a strong look at what we have in Grand Rapids, call up a few names they didn't even consider at the beginning of the season. Give Bert Jr. some more NHL experience, and discover who has potential value, who is a career AHL player, and see what are pieces are and are capable of at an NHL level. 

Give guys like Ott a couple games off, and focus on the future. AA and Sproul should never be a healthy scratch again for the remained of the season. Z is having ongoing back problems, get him out of the top 6 and cut his minutes. Let's make the top 6 Larkin, AA, Mantha, Nyquist, Tatar, and Nielsen and keep them up there. Develop them together, generate some chemistry and determine overall value. That should be the core that is focused on, get Nyquist and Tatar going and create some trade value. Keep Nielsen around, he's signed, he's a veteran, and he's a playmaker that can get players scoring goals. 

Sacrifice a few more wins constructively by exploring the youth, getting our future maximum ice time and exposure, and start building toward the future instead of dwelling on making the playoffs, giving guys who only have a year or two left in the tank top minutes, and focus on the rebuild. We can get a better draft pick, respectfully send away the streak and help the upcoming seasons more by aiming more toward the important factors of creating a successful team.

Worked for the Penguins in the mid 80's, though unfortunately, there's no Mario Lemieux or even an Auston Matthews coming in the draft in 2017.  Still, the one positive will be to finally get a high draft pick.  People always point out how you can't build a team on low draft picks alone.  There's a lot of truth in that.  

[DRW Dominance 255]

it'll be very difficult to make it.  not only are we not good but there are too many teams to leapfrog.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Worked for the Penguins in the mid 80's, though unfortunately, there's no Mario Lemieux or even an Auston Matthews coming in the draft in 2017.  Still, the one positive will be to finally get a high draft pick.  People always point out how you can't build a team on low draft picks alone.  There's a lot of truth in that.  

Don't worry, with the way Kenny locked these guys up, we have a few shots at top 3 picks.

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[Richdg 267]

7 hours ago, GMRwings1983 said:

Worked for the Penguins in the mid 80's, though unfortunately, there's no Mario Lemieux or even an Auston Matthews coming in the draft in 2017.  Still, the one positive will be to finally get a high draft pick.  People always point out how you can't build a team on low draft picks alone.  There's a lot of truth in that.  

Don't worry. I would bet good money that we have at least 3 top 10 picks in the next 5 drafts.

9 hours ago, MabusIncarnate said:

I hate the term "Tanking", I don't think it's very realistic, I don't think players would ever be encouraged to slack off and not play to their highest level to secure a lower spot in the rankings. With that said, I think it's time to really get a strong look at what we have in Grand Rapids, call up a few names they didn't even consider at the beginning of the season. Give Bert Jr. some more NHL experience, and discover who has potential value, who is a career AHL player, and see what are pieces are and are capable of at an NHL level. 

Give guys like Ott a couple games off, and focus on the future. AA and Sproul should never be a healthy scratch again for the remainder of the season. Z is having ongoing back problems, get him out of the top 6 and cut his minutes. Let's make the top 6 Larkin, AA, Mantha, Nyquist, Tatar, and Nielsen and keep them up there. Develop them together, generate some chemistry and determine overall value. That should be the core that is focused on, get Nyquist and Tatar going and create some trade value. Keep Nielsen around, he's signed, he's a veteran, and he's a playmaker that can get players scoring goals. 

Sacrifice a few more wins constructively by exploring the youth, getting our future maximum ice time and exposure, and start building toward the future instead of dwelling on making the playoffs, giving guys who only have a year or two left in the tank top minutes, and focus on the rebuild. We can get a better draft pick, respectfully send away the streak and help the upcoming seasons more by aiming more toward the important factors of creating a successful team.

I like the thought But..... Nyquist and tatar need to go. It has been 1.5 years now. They already have had their career years. Move them if possible. Give more minutes to Jurco for the rest of this season to see if he can develop or not. As I have mentioned in other places I want to see Svechnikov get 12-15 games at the end of this year to wet the taste buds for him for next season. Geo is 2 years younger than Mantha, but the skill set is 100% the same.

On the BL DD, Oullett, Sproul, Marchenko, and Jensen should play every game that they are healthy for the rest of this season. Trade Green and Smith for picks.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

I still say it's unfair to judge anyone on how they play under the NHL version of Rod Marinelli

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[Echolalia 2,961]

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

according to this the odds are now at 11.3%

[LeftWinger 4,959]

24-20 in 44 games is not hard to do. Even for this team. They get a 9-1 streak it'll be easy. Mickey says 7-3 is what they need you get them in the serious hunt. They are 3-0 since then.

[kickazz 5,459]

I mean all it takes is for one team to drop a deuce and right now Boston is the one that seems to be. Wings can take advantage of Boston's failures the next stretch and we get the 3rd spot. 

Edited January 20, 2017 by kickazz

[GoalieManPat 1,007]

A high pick is more important than being swept in the first round. The number of pts out isn't the problem for the Wings. It's the fact that are so many teams are in the hunt. They need more than one team to take a dump.

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[kickazz 5,459]

We have games at hand with Tampa and Florida, if we keep winning and Boston keeps losing, we would get the division spot. Tampa and Florida would have to win and count on the fact that we lose. 

So even if the rest of the teams in the conference keep winning as long as we win and Boston keeps losing, we automatically are in playoff contention. 

Edited January 20, 2017 by kickazz

[Echolalia 2,961]

1 minute ago, kickazz said:

We have games at hand with Tampa and Florida, if we keep winning and Boston keeps losing, we would get the division spot. Tampa and Florida would have to win and count on the fact that we lose. 

What about Toronto?  They would jump from wild card spot to division spot and wild card would then go to Philly (or Carolina or Florida or etc). 

[kickazz 5,459]

31 minutes ago, Echolalia said:

What about Toronto?  They would jump from wild card spot to division spot and wild card would then go to Philly (or Carolina or Florida or etc). 

Did this just happen, because when I posted, Boston was #2 and Toronto was #3 , I guess Sentators winning caused it. 

Edited January 20, 2017 by kickazz

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

In all seriousness, people who hope we miss the playoffs, why do you continue to watch the team play? 

[kickazz 5,459]

5 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

In all seriousness, people who hope we miss the playoffs, why do you continue to watch the team play? 

Well there's those that want us to miss so we get a high pick and kick ass later. And then there's those who think we're terrible all around, want to be right about it, and the moment we win a game or two, disappear for a bit because they probably didn't like the fact that we won. I think the latter is probably more amusing to ask. "Why?"

Edited January 20, 2017 by kickazz

[GoalieManPat 1,007]

10 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

In all seriousness, people who hope we miss the playoffs, why do you continue to watch the team play? 

Because we enjoy watching our team play and will accept a couple hard years to set the team up to be a true contender again. This 4+ years of trying to rebuild on the fly has shown itself that its not going to work and actually hurts the franchise in the long run. The highest payroll in the league for a team that plays uninspiring most nights and has very little top young talent. You need to build in through the draft in the salary cap NHL and cant rely on getting lucky in the 5th+ rounds like they did for Dats/Hank generation. You need those franchise players drafted in the top 10

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

I understand what tanking for a high draft pick is. But why do you even bother to watch the games if you're hoping we lose them?

[GoalieManPat 1,007]

Do I hope they lose? No I dont. I go into every game hoping they win. But Im also a realist and can see that they are not a good team so if they do lose it just sets them up for a better building block for the future. I can see that doing everything they can to keep the streak going the last 4 years has done nothing but hurt the future of the franchise. Had they just accepted a rebuild years ago this team would be in a much better spot.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

13 minutes ago, GoalieManPat said:

Do I hope they lose? No I dont. I go into every game hoping they win. But Im also a realist and can see that they are not a good team so if they do lose it just sets them up for a better building block for the future. I can see that doing everything they can to keep the streak going the last 4 years has done nothing but hurt the future of the franchise. Had they just accepted a rebuild years ago this team would be in a much better spot.

So when you watch a game, you hope they win and hope they lose?

[frankgrimes 1,836]

In all seriousness, people who hope we miss the playoffs, why do you continue to watch the team play? 

Because some people have accepted the reality of the cap and parity world under current rules? Which means in order to become great again each team needs to go down for a few years to (hopefully) collect a bunch of elite picks and built around them. The days of having 1 or 2 steps over everyone else in Sweden, Switzerland, Russia and Finland are over...nowadays each team has a huge scouting stuff worldwide so it's almost! impossible to find gems in the later rounds.
The Wings tried to rebuild on the fly but it didn't work ( no elite talents who can carry a franchise like the Crosbys of the world).
Why do I watch if I can? Well because I want to see who could be part of the next core and of course the last career years of Zetterberg. As a fan it's my time and I can cheer for everything I want, so the best outcome is guys playing hard but also losing because it means they tried and got closer to a top pick.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

4 minutes ago, frankgrimes said:

 

Because some people have accepted the reality of the cap and parity world under current rules? Which means in order to become great again each team needs to go down for a few years to (hopefully) collect a bunch of elite picks and built around them. The days of having 1 or 2 steps over everyone else in Sweden, Switzerland, Russia and Finland are over...nowadays each team has a huge scouting stuff worldwide so it's almost! impossible to find gems in the later rounds.
The Wings tried to rebuild on the fly but it didn't work ( no elite talents who can carry a franchise like the Crosbys of the world).
Why do I watch if I can? Well because I want to see who could be part of the next core and of course the last career years of Zetterberg. As a fan it's my time and I can cheer for everything I want, so the best outcome is guys playing hard but also losing because it means they tried and got closer to a top pick.

 

So when you watch a Wings game you hope they lose??