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brett

Red Wings drop 2 spots, will pick 9th in NHL Draft

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On 3.5.2017 at 4:48 PM, Dabura said:

It's great that you'd trade our roster for the Leafs' roster. But, tell me: Would you also trade our past ten years for the Leafs' past ten years?

Before you answer, understand a few things.

First, that the Leafs haven't won a damn thing in the past 500 years.

Second, that the Leafs under Shanahan didn't get to where they are now by blowing it all up, trading all the veterans, playing all the kids. In fact, they signed some veterans so that they could flip them for picks at the trade deadline, which would seem to go against your "DON'T SIGN VETERANS. NO VETERANS ALLOWED. ONLY KIDS. THE MORE KIDS YOU HAVE, THE STRONGER YOUR TANK WILL BE AND THE BETTER THE KIDS WILL BECOME. THIS IS SCIENCE" line of reasoning.

Third, the Leafs of the past ten years or so were the ultimate example of a team that isn't a contender but won't admit it and is therefore stuck in no man's land.

Fourth, most of the Leafs' current leaders were acquired when the Leafs were in denial about their situation and were trying to compete for the Cup. They drafted Luke Schenn 5th overall in 2008 and traded him to the Flyers for James van Riemsdyk in 2012. They drafted Nazem Kadri 7th overall in 2009. They drafted Morgan Rielly 5th overall in 2012. They traded for Jake Gardiner (Ducks, 13th overall in 2008) in 2013. You could argue the Leafs began to accept reality in 2014, but there was no "All kids, no veterans" scorched earth tear-down, and they ended up drafting William Nylander 8th overall.

Again, the Wings aren't in a hopeless place. We missed the playoffs for the first time in a quarter century and 9th overall is our highest position since Keith Primeau. Not the pot of gold we'd hoped for, but it's a start. And that's where we are: the beginning stages of a rebuild.

Your take on the situation? "Everything is awful, blow it up, trade all the veterans, play all the kids, forget what's best for the kids' development, forget flipping UFA signings for picks at the deadline, all that matters is having a roster full of kids and getting the best lottery odds. Odds, odds, odds, odds, odds. Buffalo knows what I'm talking about. Toronto knows what I'm taking about. Edmonton knows what I'm talking about. Florida knows what I'm talking about. They all traded their veterans and played all their kids and got awesome lottery odds and got awesome young players and they only had to go through maybe one or two years of pain and now they're all Cup contenders and all their fans are like, 'Yep, it's been pretty awesome for us. Thankfully, we've been blessed with awesome owners and awesome general managers who have consistently done awesome things. We pity you, Wings fans. Truly, we do. You've suffered for so long. You deserve better.'"

Whatever...you think hanging on to a streak, signing veterans to longterm contracts and hoping that some kids would magically become better than expected is the way to go ...I and others heavily disagree but I leave it at that because it's pointless. So if you want to argue further go ahead I won't answer. .

Hope the Wings go for a kid like Tippet, Vilardi (if he falls..) this team lacks a young, promising powerforward

Edited by frankgrimes

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If they want a power forwarsd... we go D at nine...then we could move up and hope for a shot at Givani Smith's  Guelph teammate Isaac Ratcliffe.  He's a BIG wing.   Don't see him falling to rd 2

 

Ideally...I'd like to go C at 9 and then D on trade back up into 1 for Foote or Hague or see what falls to us in Rd 2.  

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43 minutes ago, frankgrimes said:

Whatever...you think hanging on to a streak, signing veterans to longterm contracts and hoping that some kids would magically become better than expected is the way to go ...I and others heavily disagree but I leave it at that because it's pointless. So if you want to argue further go ahead I won't answer. .

Hope the Wings go for a kid like Tippet, Vilardi (if he falls..) this team lacks a young, promising powerforward

Not to speak for anyone, but I think the point that @Dabura i trying to make is that it doesn't have to be one extreme or the other which is the same thing I keep trying to tell you. I read the initial post and there was nothing about hanging on to the streak (which doesn't even make sense to say anymore), signing vets to long term contracts, or magically hoping for players to get better. That's an extreme argument that you always go to in an effort to make other posters sound stupid. It would be like me saying to you "Well Frank, I dont think we should tank and attempt to be bad for 20 years". Using hyperbole in an argument just makes a person sound like their argument is a weak one.

Like I have said, I really like what the Leafs have done. They didn't just blow everything up, they made the right moves that appear to have really helped them turn the corner. I would prefer to be a Toronto then a Buffalo or an Edmonton (pre McDavid).

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Not to speak for anyone, but I think the point that @Dabura i trying to make is that it doesn't have to be one extreme or the other which is the same thing I keep trying to tell you. I read the initial post and there was nothing about hanging on to the streak (which doesn't even make sense to say anymore), signing vets to long term contracts, or magically hoping for players to get better. That's an extreme argument that you always go to in an effort to make other posters sound stupid. It would be like me saying to you "Well Frank, I dont think we should tank and attempt to be bad for 20 years". Using hyperbole in an argument just makes a person sound like their argument is a weak one.
Like I have said, I really like what the Leafs have done. They didn't just blow everything up, they made the right moves that appear to have really helped them turn the corner. I would prefer to be a Toronto then a Buffalo or an Edmonton (pre McDavid).


I make nobody sound stupid, it's a discussion board and everyone has his or her opinion on how to improve the Wings going forward. For me *personally* I think the best way to get a chance at much needed players the Wings have to be young and inexperienced to increase their odds, other's disagree fine.

The Leafs have done a lot of things that have gone unnoticed for whatever reason, they've chanced their scouting, front office, brought in the best coach in hockey AND decided to go young. The big question is, can they add a stud defenseman if they can they'll be contenders soon.

As far as Edmonton of course McDavid has been tremendous for them (that guy is unbelievable at 19 years old) but I will also admit that I was wrong about Hall for Larson it was a great move because it allowed Edmonton to have 2 solid defensive pairings, that combined with the play of Talbot made Edmonton such a 180 degree changed team compared to the end of last season.

I don't know why you think Buffalo has it so bad? Yes, it wasn't a good year for them and Pegula isn't happy otherwise he wouldn't have fired Murray and Discodan but they still have Eichel, Ristolainen, ROR and Reinhart to build around.

Maybe Philly, the Avs drop the ball and pass on Vilardi so the Wings can take him but I wouldn't count on that which means if you don't trade, draft for that much needed stud defenseman or number 1 center other teams will leave in the dust in no time and that's exactly what happened to the Wings. Even Develano agreed with that notion, so it's not me trying to make other people sound stupid it's just me pointing what happened to the Wings and that I'm really concerned because I haven't seen a real plan on how to get the before mentioned help other than "hopefully some players turn out better than expected". Call me pessimistic or whatever but that's my view on the situation and I am as entitled to it as everyone else is to his or her opinion

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10 minutes ago, frankgrimes said:

I make nobody sound stupid, it's a discussion board and everyone has his or her opinion on how to improve the Wings going forward. For me *personally* I think the best way to get a chance at much needed players the Wings have to be young and inexperienced to increase their odds, other's disagree fine.

The Leafs have done a lot of things that have gone unnoticed for whatever reason, they've chanced their scouting, front office, brought in the best coach in hockey AND decided to go young. The big question is, can they add a stud defenseman if they can they'll be contenders soon.

As far as Edmonton of course McDavid has been tremendous for them (that guy is unbelievable at 19 years old) but I will also admit that I was wrong about Hall for Larson it was a great move because it allowed Edmonton to have 2 solid defensive pairings, that combined with the play of Talbot made Edmonton such a 180 degree changed team compared to the end of last season.

I don't know why you think Buffalo has it so bad? Yes, it wasn't a good year for them and Pegula isn't happy otherwise he wouldn't have fired Murray and Discodan but they still have Eichel, Ristolainen, ROR and Reinhart to build around.

Maybe Philly, the Avs drop the ball and pass on Vilardi so the Wings can take him but I wouldn't count on that which means if you don't trade, draft for that much needed stud defenseman or number 1 center other teams will leave in the dust in no time and that's exactly what happened to the Wings. Even Develano agreed with that notion, so it's not me trying to make other people sound stupid it's just me pointing what happened to the Wings and that I'm really concerned because I haven't seen a real plan on how to get the before mentioned help other than "hopefully some players turn out better than expected". Call me pessimistic or whatever but that's my view on the situation and I am as entitled to it as everyone else is to his or her opinion

So many different directions you went in, I'll stick to just two.

To be fair though Frank, changes made in the Leafs scouting really have nothing to do with their turn around. The majority of the players that are turning into stars were their prior to these changes being made with the exception of I believe Matthews. No doubt Babs is a huge reason for the Leafs success, I was not one of the one's who was happy when he left. If we had Babs and Toronto had Blashill. no doubt in my mind they do not make the playoffs and we are a lot closer (possibly slipping in).

Why do I rag on Buffalo? Because they have made the playoffs 2 times in the last 10 seasons meaning they have had 8 "top 15" but probably closer to top 5 picks and have nothing to show for it. This is why I use them as an example, if you tank and are bad for a decade, you can still be a bottom feeder in the standings. Tanking is not some pill that just magically makes you a contender, it's alot more complicated that that and to think otherwise is just a simplistic way of looking at things. I am not saying that Buffalo will never be good again, but they are the perfect example of how tanking does not guarantee success. If "tanking" is a 10-15 year process, I want no part in it.

We need to make moves, no doubt. But there is a huge difference between making moves and just trading everyone/scorched earth.

This is why I constantly bring up the Leafs. Shanny and company got rid of the massive contracts, traded a lot of second tier players/upcoming UFA's, hired a new coach, and have a good mix of vets/kids. This is what I want to do. Doing this they pretty much transformed the team in only a couple seasons. They DID NOT tear it down.

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21 hours ago, Dabura said:

Pettersson's a natural centerman who can play wing. Taken together, all of his best qualities scream "centerman's centerman."

Of course, I don't think we should be drafting for need in the first round anyway. We're in the early stages of a rebuild; we need everything. Well, everything except time. We've got lots and lots of time. (I'm not expecting us to become a contender within the next three years. Hoping, but not expecting.)

Personally, I like Pettersson a lot. In terms of pure talent, he's easily in the top ten of this draft class. Dude is just stupid skilled. And, to me, he seems to possess that "special something" which sometimes allows nobodies to smash all limitations and exceed all expectations. And, being a Swedish centerman, he already plays a very mature two-way game.

The concerns: he's extremely thin (for a highly rated hockey prospect in his draft year), he's easily outmuscled, and his skating needs work. I do worry that his effectiveness is fundamentally tied to the bigger European ice surface. A bulked up Pettersson playing on the smaller North American surface and being forced to fight through tight checking on every single shift might be a very different and significantly less effective player than the one we're looking at today and the one we'd hope he becomes.

But I come back to the undeniable fact that he is enormously talented and to my belief that he possesses certain special qualities that simply can't be taught. I would argue he's talented enough -- and his potential is great enough -- that he'd be well worth whatever perceived risk we'd be taking by selecting him ninth overall.

I can't really speak about Petersson, having never seen him play (or even bothered to look into the guy), but in general I'm very wary of anybody with dubious skating.  That's not to say his skating (if indeed it is a problem) can't improve.  But when I look at the teams doing well in the playoffs right now the thing I notice most is speed.  Pittsburgh, Nashville, St. Louis, Edmonton, Ottawa, New York, and even Anaheim are all REALLY fast and play with incredible pace.  Going forward, in today's game, I'd be really worried about taking someone who doensn't skate well.  This is especially true for defensemen (which I realize Petersson is not).  Look at what a game changer Nashville's defense is.  They're insane.  I just don't think there's any future for slower, grinding, type teams.  Even if they're HUGE, I think you live and die in transition these days.

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1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

I can't really speak about Petersson, having never seen him play (or even bothered to look into the guy), but in general I'm very wary of anybody with dubious skating.  That's not to say his skating (if indeed it is a problem) can't improve.  But when I look at the teams doing well in the playoffs right now the thing I notice most is speed.  Pittsburgh, Nashville, St. Louis, Edmonton, Ottawa, New York, and even Anaheim are all REALLY fast and play with incredible pace.  Going forward, in today's game, I'd be really worried about taking someone who doensn't skate well.  This is especially true for defensemen (which I realize Petersson is not).  Look at what a game changer Nashville's defense is.  They're insane.  I just don't think there's any future for slower, grinding, type teams.  Even if they're HUGE, I think you live and die in transition these days.

I fully agree with this. :thumbup:

That being said, I should clarify: I wouldn't say Pettersson's skating is problematic -- it just lacks some power, explosiveness. That's not an uncommon problem with players this age, even top talents like Pettersson. I'd be surprised if Pettersson didn't become a perfectly fine skater at the pro level.

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Clarification #2: When I say I worry that his effectiveness might be tied to the bigger ice surface, I'm mostly referring to the fact that he plays a certain way, succeeds in certain ways, is often able to make good things happen without doing things that he would absolutely have to do if he wants to have any real success at the NHL level.

I think JoshMVP said it well:

Pettersson’s biggest limiting factors are both related to his weight. While he has decent top speed, he isn’t an explosive skater and will need to improve on this as he continues his development. And second, his balance on his skates, particularly when going up against heavier opponents along the boards, could use some improvement as well. Both are areas that should improve as he adds muscle (he’s already added at least 10 pounds since last year). Watching some of his play at the WJC, it wasn’t uncommon for him to be on the ice or get muscled away from the puck if he wasn’t out in open spaces.

Right now, he’s relying almost entirely on his stickwork, agility and puck skills to get the job done. I’d say he’s done pretty well for himself, but he could things to another level if he’s able to add more power to his game.

My concern there is that B won't necessarily follow from A. That is, his game is not remotely a power game, and one could argue he's been as effective as he's been because he plays such a shifty finesse game on that big ice surface. So, it's not necessarily the case that he "just needs to get bigger and stronger and learn the pro North American game."

I'm not especially fond of J.J. from Kansas (or WIIM, for that matter), but I'll quote something he posted in the comments section of that page I linked:

Speaking as the resident dead horse pulverizer in regards to the small-is-beautiful side of the size vs. skill argument, I get nervous around the beanpole body type moreso than short guys simply because it’s easier to take advantage of size issues on guys who have more body against which to leverage.

Drew Miller is kind of the perfect example of this. He’s 6’2", which is slightly above average, but I doubt that he plays at his listed weight of about 183. The Drew Miller who went three straight years with the Wings scoring double-digit goals had good instincts, played an actual 200 foot game, & was quite cerebral. If he could have gotten up to 200 pounds without losing what he was as a player, I think he could have been a pretty good middle-six forward. Unfortunately, he stayed lanky and that is a body type which is quite difficult to overcome.

The other half of this equation is that for some people, it’s not just about eating enough protein and lifting enough weights. There are some guys who simply can’t bulk up. I’m not saying that’s this kid, but there are inherent risks in drafting a guy you think is going to hae a bigger body by the time he’s playing for you and then seeing that either he couldn’t bulk up OR that the bulking up he did cost him a lot of his agility.

The "too skinny" thing is something that gets fixed in kids like this all the time, but it’s also something that can go catastrophically wrong with development… like a stocky guy who never gets over weak skating

But, like I've said, I think Pettersson's talent and potential outweight the perceived risks.

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22 hours ago, frankgrimes said:

you think hanging on to a streak, signing veterans to longterm contracts and hoping that some kids would magically become better than expected is the way to go

False.

I don't want business-as-usual. But I also don't want the extreme opposite, which is "Blow it up, trade the veterans, load the team with kids (regardless of whether they're ready or not), worship at the altar of the almighty Lottery Gods." I want Holland('s eventual replacement) to be shrewd. I want him to be patient, opportunistic. I want him to make moves when he can, when they make sense. I want him to make sure the team is getting younger, but I don't want him to force it. I'm fine with him aiming for the playoffs, as long as it's not at the expense of the future.

I need to stress that we just missed the playoffs for the first time in 25 years. It's not like we've spent the past ten years missing the playoffs and drafting 15th overall at every draft. We're in the early stages of a rebuild. Being bad for a few seasons and getting a few seasons' worth of top ten picks doesn't happen in one season -- it happens over the course of *a few seasons*. We just had our first bad season. My hope is that we're bad for the next several years, without actively trying to suck. I'd be ok with drafting 6th overall in the next two or three drafts and adding a key piece or two via trade or free agency.

It remains to be seen how Holland('s eventual replacement) is going to handle things, but I believe the status quo has already begun to change. Holland was a seller at the deadline. Lots of kids saw time with the big club and a number of them established themselves as regulars. The "It's all about making the playoffs. Playoffs or bust. This is a man's league. I don't believe you win with kids" thing probably isn't a thing anymore, even if Holland tells the media otherwise.

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On 5/5/2017 at 6:26 PM, LeftWinger said:

OK, I'll you that, but hank wasn't a top 10 pick either. If we drafted pettersson and his 2-3 years to develop in the 5th round, then cool. But you don't draft someone in the top 10 that needs to develop.

Last year's draft was much deeper, especially with rich talent.

How many guys in last year's top 10 took a regular shift last year?

There's nobody in this draft, except maybe Nolan Patrick, who is viewed as someone who can step in and play.

Pettersson seems like a Detroit pick.He's a playmaker. We need a playmaker. He's a center. He came up through Timra, like Zetterberg. He's not the only guy I'd look at. But he's one.

And at this point, it's really hard to say with any certainty who's the best at 9.

I see 6-7 players I'd like

19 hours ago, Dabura said:

Clarification #2: When I say I worry that his effectiveness might be tied to the bigger ice surface, I'm mostly referring to the fact that he plays a certain way, succeeds in certain ways, is often able to make good things happen without doing things that he would absolutely have to do if he wants to have any real success at the NHL level.

I think JoshMVP said it well:

Pettersson’s biggest limiting factors are both related to his weight. While he has decent top speed, he isn’t an explosive skater and will need to improve on this as he continues his development. And second, his balance on his skates, particularly when going up against heavier opponents along the boards, could use some improvement as well. Both are areas that should improve as he adds muscle (he’s already added at least 10 pounds since last year). Watching some of his play at the WJC, it wasn’t uncommon for him to be on the ice or get muscled away from the puck if he wasn’t out in open spaces.

Right now, he’s relying almost entirely on his stickwork, agility and puck skills to get the job done. I’d say he’s done pretty well for himself, but he could things to another level if he’s able to add more power to his game.

My concern there is that B won't necessarily follow from A. That is, his game is not remotely a power game, and one could argue he's been as effective as he's been because he plays such a shifty finesse game on that big ice surface. So, it's not necessarily the case that he "just needs to get bigger and stronger and learn the pro North American game."

I'm not especially fond of J.J. from Kansas (or WIIM, for that matter), but I'll quote something he posted in the comments section of that page I linked:

Speaking as the resident dead horse pulverizer in regards to the small-is-beautiful side of the size vs. skill argument, I get nervous around the beanpole body type moreso than short guys simply because it’s easier to take advantage of size issues on guys who have more body against which to leverage.

Drew Miller is kind of the perfect example of this. He’s 6’2", which is slightly above average, but I doubt that he plays at his listed weight of about 183. The Drew Miller who went three straight years with the Wings scoring double-digit goals had good instincts, played an actual 200 foot game, & was quite cerebral. If he could have gotten up to 200 pounds without losing what he was as a player, I think he could have been a pretty good middle-six forward. Unfortunately, he stayed lanky and that is a body type which is quite difficult to overcome.

The other half of this equation is that for some people, it’s not just about eating enough protein and lifting enough weights. There are some guys who simply can’t bulk up. I’m not saying that’s this kid, but there are inherent risks in drafting a guy you think is going to hae a bigger body by the time he’s playing for you and then seeing that either he couldn’t bulk up OR that the bulking up he did cost him a lot of his agility.

The "too skinny" thing is something that gets fixed in kids like this all the time, but it’s also something that can go catastrophically wrong with development… like a stocky guy who never gets over weak skating

But, like I've said, I think Pettersson's talent and potential outweight the perceived risks.

 

 

If Drew Miller had top six skill, he'd have played. Hell. He played 8 years with this team without any skill.

 

You can be skilled and slow. You can be skilled and small.

But it's hard to be skilled, slow and small. A guy like Jiri Hudler comes to mind. Tatar, too, to a certain extent.

These guys are the exceptions. And they had to fight for every inch and plays extra years in the AHL and on lines 3 and 4 before getting top 6 looks.

 

Edited by RedWingsNow

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The more I watch Ryan Ellis dominating in the playoffs for Nashville, the more I really want the Wings to take Cale Makar with the 9th pick.  Nothing about his size is a worry for me at this point.  I want that dynamism from the defense. 

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As long as they take a defenseman (first choice) or a center at 9, then try to stock their D with their second and third rounders, I'll be ok.  Unless they make a huge reach for a guy projected to go in the 15-20 range or trade down 10 spots.

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Player's I'd consider at 9

Mittelstadt
Vilardi
Pettersson
Liljegren
Heiskanen
Makar
Glass
Lias Andersson
Jusso Valimaki
Robert Thomas
Erik Brannstrom
Nick Suzkiki

I don't exect Mittelstadt, Vilardi, Heiskanen, Glass or Makar will be there.

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5 1.png Elias Pettersson (C/LW) Timrå IK Allsvenskan 43 19 22 41 14 
6 8.png Martin Necas (C) HC Kometa Brno Czech 41 7 8 15
7 3.png Cody Glass (C) Portland Winterhawks WHL 69 32 62 94 36 
8 1.png Timothy Liljegren (D) Rögle BK SHL 19 1 4 5
9 3.png Cale Makar (D) Brooks Bandits AJHL 54 24 51 75 18 
10 2.png Miro Heiskanen (D) HIFK Liiga 37 5 5 10
as it stands at present.

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5 minutes ago, Andy Pred 48 said:
5 1.png Elias Pettersson (C/LW) Timrå IK Allsvenskan 43 19 22 41 14 
6 8.png Martin Necas (C) HC Kometa Brno Czech 41 7 8 15
7 3.png Cody Glass (C) Portland Winterhawks WHL 69 32 62 94 36 
8 1.png Timothy Liljegren (D) Rögle BK SHL 19 1 4 5
9 3.png Cale Makar (D) Brooks Bandits AJHL 54 24 51 75 18 
10 2.png Miro Heiskanen (D) HIFK Liiga 37 5 5 10
as it stands at present.

As it stands where?

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My top 6 in no order....

- Cody Glass

- Owen Tippett

- Timothy Liljegren 

- Michael Rasmussen

- Nicolas Hague 

- Callan Foote

 

What would I like to see? Honestly, Tippett, Liljegren, or Hague - preferably one the later two. Why you ask. Because as we all know good defensemen don't grown on trees. I feel they have more organizational value due to the cost and time to develop ones that can play at the NHL level.

What I'd really like to see is Holland make a trade for another top 15 pick and pick up both a forward and defensemen. Maybe Green and two 3rd rounders? I dunno just saying thats what I'd like.

Realistically, I think it comes down to the bottom three of Rasmussen, Hague, and Foote. In which case, I'm pushing for Hague.

Edited by Keep Your Stick On the Ice

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