League to NHL Translation Factors

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

Found this interesting. This guy is a statistician who works for the NHL and ESPN. Czech league excluded because not enough data. 

So here's how a few players seasons may have predictably gone had they been in the NHL this year:

Datsyuk: 25 pts in 44 GP
Kovalchuk: 58 pts in 60 GP
M. Callahan: 20 pts in 66 GP
E. Svechnikov: 22 pts in 74 GP
Saarijarvi: 9 pts in 34 GP
Hronek: 18 pts in 59 GP
Cholowski: 5 pts in 36 GP
G. Smith: 13 pts in 64 GP
O. Tippet: 23 pts in 60 GP
Pettersson: 23 pts in 43 GP

Mind you these are the predicted numbers had each player played a similar role in the NHL, that they did on their own team in their respective league/s. So a guy like Callahan probably isn't going to score 20 pts in 60+ games in the NHL right away, because he'll likely have 4th line grinding duties.

If these numbers are accurate Kovalchuk still very much appears to be a high level player.

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Pretty big If.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

8 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Pretty big If.

Well yeah, there's a ton of factors not playing in here. It's just a place to start when considering how a player will transition to the NHL.

For example, I'm pretty sure Kovalchuk was playing like a ridiculous 23 minutes a night in Russia or something like that. In the NHL he's only going to see 18 minutes a night. That's a pretty big difference. Highly doubt he returns to a point per game pace in the NHL. Though the guy is a Thoroughbred so who knows.

And guys like Damien Brunner had 1st line, best player on the team, duties in Europe. We stuck him on the 3rd line. So usage matters.

All he's saying is essentially 1 NHL pt = 0.74 KHL pt and thus it's a ranking of the strength of the leagues as well 

[toby91_ca 620]

5 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

All he's saying is essentially 1 NHL pt = 0.74 KHL pt and thus it's a ranking of the strength of the leagues as well 

Backwards...1 NHL pt = 1.35 KHL pt

[Datsyukian-Deke 722]

Interesting for sure but there are just so many factors that go into success in the NHL. Linemates, roles, confidence level, coaching are just a few.