Echolalia 2,961 Report post Posted June 25, 2017 So last year during all the commotion of evaluating the team's picks during the 2016 NHL draft, I thought it would be fun to go back five years and see how those players panned out, and more specifically what LGW was saying at the time of those picks. It was a fun and relatively informative thread, and I thought it would be just as fun and informative to do it again this year. One thing worth mentioning is that five years ago, LGW did not have nearly as loud of a voice in prospects as we do now. So there isn't as much "Holland should have picked X instead of Y" like we have today, but its still fun to look back at our opinions. So without further ado, here is a look back to the 2012 NHL entry draft. Note: the '2012 NHL Entry Draft Discussion' was a general thread, whereas separate threads were made for the discussion of each of our selections. Those are also below. Round 1: Wings traded 1st round pick (19th overall) to Tampa Bay for Kyle Quincey. With that pick the Lightning selected goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. Round 2: Wings selected Martin Frk (49th overall). Discussion is here: LGW was overall pleased with this pick. Frk was originally slated as a 1st rounder but dropped to us at 49th. Some were considering it a steal. Round 3: Wings selected Jake Paterson (80th overall). Discussion is here: Not much overall talk on him from LGW. A couple voices were happy with the pick. Round 4: Wings selected Andreas Athanasiou (110th overall). Discussion is here: No complaints on this pick, even back then (at least in this thread. There was a grumble or two over this pick in the 2012 entry draft discussion thread). People loved the speed. Comparisons were made to being a second Jurco or Tvrdon (in a positive way lol). Round 5: Wings selected Mike McKee (140th overall). Discussion is here (and 300 other places on these forums. This is prob the most popular draft pick to never play an NHL game): I would say hindsight is 20/20 on this one but I know there are still people here that are creaming themselves over this guy so whatever. Poor Buppy was the lone voice trying to temper expectations. Round 6: Wings selected James DeHaas (170th overall). I was unable to find a specific thread on this pick. Round 7: Wings selected Rasmus Bodin (200th overall) Discussion is here: Not much here to write home about. 2012 Entry Draft Discussion Thread: A lot of this thread is overshadowed by the Suter and Parise sweepstakes. A cute little gem: "i like the frk and mckee picks as well as the potential of bodin ....good draft day considering we dealt our 19th pick id say ... not sold on athanasiou being a player but overall pleased" and nice foresight from ogreslayer: "To me, the most intriguing pick is Athanasiou given what's been said of the kid's speed & skill. Discipline & hard work can be taught, natural speed & skill can't. If there's a player the Wings drafted this year that will be known as the steal of his draft class, I think he could be it." this draft was rated by one of our resident posters as one of the best drafts in a long time: "I have been doing some reading and research on the Wings picks...I can honestly say this is one of the Wings best drafts in a long time. I can also honestly see all 6 of these kids being in the Detroit when their time comes. The only one who may have an issue is the goalie, Paterson, only because Howad is still young and Mrazek is doing so good too! Now, he may not be a Red Wing, but he could make it somewhere else, but the other five? I can see them filling certain and different roles on this team within the next 3-7 years. I think McKee and Bodin are going to be HUGE (no pun intended) surprises to the NHL world and once again, Holland will deemed a genius! De Haas may have a bit of a challenge too considering Detroit's interest in Suter and Schultz. If Holland lands those two or even one of them, the Wings have a great young core of defenders who will be here for a long time. Kronwall, Ericsson, Suter, Smith, Schultz, if he signs Dekeyser, and also there are two kids in the top 10 prospects Sproul and Ouellet. If Holland gets Suter/Schultz then eventually Dekeyser I can see Sproul and Ouellet even having a hard time cracking this lineup anytime soon, but again De Haas looks like a great young defenseman and should make some waves in GR and eventually, if not for the Wings, somewhere in the NHL too... Good on ya, Holland!" As of right now, the only player from that draft to reach the NHL ice is Athanasiou. So 1 for 5 from 2012. 20% success rate for rounds 2-7, which is essentially the league average for that span, as I show below. For the record, here is a list of the entire 2012 entry level draft: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2012e.html The first 20 picks in the first round essentially all made it to the NHL. Griffin Reinhart (4th overall, Islanders), Derrek Pouliot (8th overall, Penguins), and Slater Koekkoek (10th overall, Tampa Bay) are the only three in the top twenty to play less than 82 games of NHL hockey. After pick 20 it gets more dicey, only 4 of 10 playing more than 82 games, and two of those four barely make that cut. Four players played less than 20 games in the NHL in that back 10. The second round only produced 8 hockey players to play more than 20 games in the NHL. Frk is not one of them. Ten players from the third round have played more than 20 games in the NHL. Notables from this list include Shayne Gostisbehere (78th Philadephia), Colton Parayko (86th St Louis), and Frederik Andersson (87th Anaheim). Six players from the fourth round have played more than 20 NHL games, including Athanasiou. Five players from the fifth round have played more than 20 NHL games. Mike Mckee is not one of those five. Nine players from the sixth round have played more than 20 NHL games. Nobody from the seventh round has played more than five NHL games. Overall there isn't a lot of star power outside of the first round in this one, and after pick 20 the odds of finding an NHL player diminish considerably. Round 2 had a success rate of 26% of producing an NHL player. Round 3 is 33%. Round 4 is 20%. Round 5 is 16%. Round 6 is 30%. Round 7 is 0%. So final thoughts on this one: Holland's 20% success rate about mirrors the league rate for round 2-7. Not having a first round pick hurt this year, considering the success rate in the top 20 picks, and the paucity of success thereafter. Athanasiou was one of the better players to come outside the first round, though, so the Wings organization at least has that going for them. 4 derblaueClaus, P. Marlowe, sputman and 1 other reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DickieDunn 2,571 Report post Posted June 25, 2017 Frk played 2 games for the Canes. But yeah, pretty typical draft results, especially the later picks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 Mike McKee just finished his degree and time at Western Michigan this season. Give him a break. I predict a break out season for him this year. Maybe he even makes the team outta camp. Kids good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Echolalia 2,961 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 http://www.mlive.com/broncos/index.ssf/2017/03/chris_dienes_and_mike_mckee_si.html welp according to this he signed a contract with the Wings back in March of this year, and McKee will be moving on to the ECHL to play for the Toledo Walleye 1 ChristopherReevesLegs reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Echolalia said: http://www.mlive.com/broncos/index.ssf/2017/03/chris_dienes_and_mike_mckee_si.html welp according to this he signed a contract with the Wings back in March of this year, and McKee will be moving on to the ECHL to play for the Toledo Walleye Hopefully his knuckles didnt get too soft in college. Much excite! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kickazz 5,459 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 Seems like a lot of people ate crow. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 33 minutes ago, kickazz said: Seems like a lot of people ate crow. Didnt reread through the threads, but if I remember correctly i was excited about Frk, Paterson, and Mckee. Ive done a full 180 on Frk and Paterson since, but im gonna stubbornly hold out on Mckee till about 2028. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kickazz 5,459 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said: Didnt reread through the threads, but if I remember correctly i was excited about Frk, Paterson, and Mckee. Ive done a full 180 on Frk and Paterson since, but im gonna stubbornly hold out on Mckee till about 2028. But I thought you we're a new member? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DickieDunn 2,571 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 Mike McKee just finished his degree and time at Western Michigan this season. Give him a break. I predict a break out season for him this year. Maybe he even makes the team outta camp. Kids good.By the team, you mean Toledo, right?Sent from my LGLS676 using TapatalkI was interested by Frk and intrigued by AA's speed. I thought both of them could be good picks if they rounded out their game. I was half right. McKee, I had some hope that he'd learn to play and not just chuck knuckles and turn into a big nasty checking winger.Sent from my LGLS676 using Tapatalk Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, kickazz said: But I thought you we're a new member? 11 minutes ago, DickieDunn said: By the team, you mean Toledo, right? Sent from my LGLS676 using Tapatalk I was interested by Frk and intrigued by AA's speed. I thought both of them could be good picks if they rounded out their game. I was half right. McKee, I had some hope that he'd learn to play and not just chuck knuckles and turn into a big nasty checking winger. Sent from my LGLS676 using Tapatalk Well the Red Wings did sign him right before graduation. Obviously they have some hope for him. He should be on the squad by 2027 at the latest. I think college hockey was the wrong choice, and a huge setback for him. Although i admire his decision to look outside of sports and get a degree under his belt. Cant say Id do the same as a 5th round draft choice of an original 6 team. He would have excelled in the role of a tough guy in the CHL, or another league that condones fighting, I believe. Look at Mcilrath. He was able to raise his stock to become a top 10 pick playing the same style. Biggest difference between the two is Mcilrath is a horrid skater, where as Mckee can get the wheels on the bus moving. I think the other issue was his move to defense. Not sure why Murray moved Mckee there. My best guess is his 2013/14 forward core was complete and Mckee, not being a player who was going to contribute to a scoring line (and you can run 4 scoring lines in college), was transitioned to a shutdown defender. Regardless of why, i think at the time this was a clever move by Murray, that just didnt work out how he hoped. And it ultimately impacted Mckees career negatively. Mckee, as far as I know, is not known for his lateral or backwards movement. His known for his ability to accelerate quickly going forwards. AKA he has the tools to become an enforcer/checking line forward, like you said youd hope hed become. Lets see how he does at higher levels. Glad he graduated and is now moving up. Does anyone know if he played D for Toledo this year? Hoping they moved him to wing. 1 kickazz reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kickazz 5,459 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 (edited) 8 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said: Does anyone know if he played D for Toledo this year? No. Edited June 26, 2017 by kickazz Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DickieDunn 2,571 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 He was a D when they drafted him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
derblaueClaus 1,668 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 (edited) 16 hours ago, Echolalia said: Round 3: Wings selected Jake Paterson (80th overall). Discussion is here: Not much overall talk on him from LGW. A couple voices were happy with the pick. This just came over twitter. Maybe it's nothing, he just becomes an UFA. But it doesn't look good. Edited June 26, 2017 by derblaueClaus Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 2 hours ago, derblaueClaus said: This just came over twitter. Maybe it's nothing, he just becomes an UFA. But it doesn't look good. I'd like to say I'm disappointed, but he really hasn't been very good since draft day Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Echolalia 2,961 Report post Posted June 26, 2017 (edited) The 2011 draft kind of had a similar pattern, in that I believe the top 15 picks were almost a sure thing, then the back half of round 1 through all of round 2, the odds of landing an NHL player seemed about even through that stretch. 2012 at first glance appears a bit deeper, with a higher success rate early on, extending to the 20th pick. There was more of a transition zone from 20th to 30th, but from the second round on it was more or less a ~25% chance of landing someone, regardless of where exactly you were picking, until late in the draft when the number diminished even further. It lends credence to the idea of trading away a late (20th-30th overall) first round pick for multiple second round picks, something generally frowned upon here. Earlier than 20th, though, and you're likely trading away an NHL player-to-be. Of course this observation is based just on 2011 and 2012 draft classes. I'll add 2013 next off season. Edited June 26, 2017 by Echolalia 2 ChristopherReevesLegs and krsmith17 reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
martyrme19 73 Report post Posted June 29, 2017 I really like the idea of this thread. I hope you keep doing it next year! 2 Keep Your Stick On the Ice and Echolalia reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Keep Your Stick On the Ice 67 Report post Posted July 6, 2017 On 6/28/2017 at 7:56 PM, martyrme19 said: I really like the idea of this thread. I hope you keep doing it next year! same Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GMRwings1983 8,793 Report post Posted July 6, 2017 (edited) I'm confident I got every prediction right without even having to read these threads. Edited July 6, 2017 by GMRwings1983 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022 Report post Posted July 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, GMRwings1983 said: I'm confident I got every prediction right without even having to read these threads. I read them, you got everything right confirmed Share this post Link to post Share on other sites