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PavelValerievichDatsyuk

Tatar, Athanasiou, and XO's new deals

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21 minutes ago, kickazz said:

He did well on a stacked team, I'm not sure if he would do as well on our roster as he did on a cup finals/ conference finals team. 

All true, but I'm not really arguing that he'd put up as many points as he did in TB or that he'd have been great here. The bar is lower when you're comparing with a guy that put up 29 points here over 2 years. I think people forget Weiss' injury woes and how little he actually played. Just based on health, I can't see any comparison between their situations. Buying out the guy who missed more than half the games for his 2 years is quite different than than someone who's underproducing for their contract. We have those guys and they've not been bought out.

Edited by PavelValerievichDatsyuk

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On 7/14/2017 at 7:43 PM, kickazz said:

I think people see the "25 goal" mark from last season and are automatically assuming "great" goal scorer. But if you look at the full context, all of AA, Mantha, Tatar, Larkin, Vanek are one in the same in the goals department.

If we're looking at the "full context," we should be looking at more than just goal totals and goals-per-game rates.

VANEK

Vanek did what he did in an extremely sheltered role:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/thomas-vanek-traded-small-return/

Vanek started 49.5 percent of his shifts in the o-zone and 21.4 percent of his shifts in the d-zone. Despite this cushy deployment scheme, his possession numbers were poor:

https://s11.postimg.org/hqdpwzo8z/Story_40.png

(His CF% on the season was 47.5.)

Tatar started 31.8 percent of his shifts in the o-zone and 29 percent of his shifts in the d-zone. Despite the tougher deployment scheme, Tatar's possession numbers were better:

https://s9.postimg.org/ol2t5m5a7/Story_41.png

(CF%: 50.6.)

ATHANASIOU

For much of this past season, I really disliked how Blashill was handling AA. Towards the end of the season, I watched AA more closely and monitored his underlying numbers. I concluded that Blashill was fully justified in being hard on AA.

Let's look at zone starts again.

AA started 40.7 percent of his shifts in the o-zone and 25.9 percent of his shifts in the d-zone. Despite this cushy deployment scheme, his possession numbers were poor:

https://s14.postimg.org/6tbiywn0h/Story_42.png

https://s1.postimg.org/ywnl9amb3/Story_43.png

(CF%: 47.5.)

A lot of people will treat those charts as self-evident proof that AA is a great player. "If he scored that many goals in such a limited role, it only makes sense that increased ice time would lead to outstanding production, probably 60+ points."

Personally, I don't think it's safe to assume his numbers will scale up like that. IMO, AA's game is, at this time, immature and one-dimensional and problematic. If he's going to be hard-matched against top players next season, he's probably going to be a liability when the going gets tough.

Even if you take away Tatar's goals and assists, he -- Tatar -- is still an outstanding possession driver (i.e. not a liability):

https://s9.postimg.org/p46zhzfz3/Story_44.png

https://s2.postimg.org/jmq8d4kfd/Story_45.png

https://s4.postimg.org/aw0tr34el/Story_46.png

https://s22.postimg.org/a3d852h4x/Story_47.png

I think AA has a high ceiling. At this point in time, however, Tatar is the superior player. AA has to grow his game. He has a lot to prove.

MANTHA & LARKIN

They've arguably shown more promise than AA has shown, but the sample size is still incredibly small. At this point in time, Tatar is the better player. (I have to head out soon and am rushing this last bit.)

*     *     *

Mantha, Larkin, and Athanasiou are, I think, capable of surpassing Tatar. And if Tatar wants a mega deal, yeah, you're probably getting more bang for your buck with any of the aforementioned younger players. And that's not even considering the return that Tatar could bring in a trade. So, yeah -- if Tatar wants unreasonable money, I'm ok with signing the one-year deal and trading him.

But, like I've said before, we shouldn't be eager to part ways (unless his demands are unreasonable and he doesn't budge). "He's not a gamechanger and all of our kids are probably better than him anyway, so he's expendable" = "I don't fully understand and appreciate what we have in Tatar." He can score 25 goals and drive possession in a top-line role on a terrible possession team that can't score goals and doesn't have a functional power play and has a s*** blue line. (And it's worth noting that he only put up 8 points on the power play this season. Which is, to me, an indictment of the terrible power play.) He's a very good player. He's the kind of player you try to keep.

T.J. Oshie is a similar player and he just got $5.75M x 8. If we can get Tatar for just a bit less on the money side and two or three fewer years, I say that's a good deal (assuming his shoulder isn't A Thing). If that's what he's looking for and Holland feels our cap situation can't allow it, I'm going to call that mismanagement. Dump some salary! It's not like our roster is overloaded with "gamechangers" who'd leave gaping holes in our organizational depth chart.

On the other hand, if Holland has very good reason to believe he could get an exceptional return for Tatar on the trade market, maybe that does tip the scale in favor of moving him, even if he's asking for market value on this contract. That would be risky, though.

Edited by Dabura

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Yeah, what Dabura said.

Increasing ice time by 30% doesn't always, or even usually, lead to a 30% scoring increase because the increased ice time is usually against better competition.  

Nobody knows what younger players, even guys who have played in the NHL and have shown promise, are going to do long term.  They might get injured, or have off ice issues, or have some fatal flaw in their game that isn't evident in a small sample size.  You can't say "well, so in so is going to be better than what we have so we can lose this productive player."

The cap issues they're having now are a direct result of signing a bunch of guys to deals that are "maybe $500k or a million too much, but it's not THAT bad of an over payment, so it should be alright."  Which is what I said every time a deal like that was handed out, it all adds up and it will cause an issue eventually.  Glendening is making $800k too much, Abdelkader about $500k (unless he took less term, then his current hit is more palatable), Helm is $500k too much.  That's more than enough between them to avoid the cap issues.  Signing vets who aren't going to put the team over the top is the other issue.  They have $5.25 mil going to a 2nd line center that helped them to one of the worst records in the conference, and now $3.17 mil going to a defenseman who is going to be on the top pair by default but is probably a 2nd pair D on a good team.  We already had 2 of those guys in Dekeyser and Green.  This isn't a corporate budget where if you don't spend your allotment this year the bean counters will decide you don't need that much next year and will chop your budget.  They don't have to spend it just because they can.

Edited by DickieDunn

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18 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

In hindsight. At the time most were cool with it. It just sucked letting an asset walk for nothing.

Of course it's in hindsight.  It was 4 years ago. 

Peoples' opinions four years ago about Filppula are not relevant to the current conversation about Tatar.  I don't even remember if I posted anything about the Filppula/Weiss situation, but I'm not trying to say "I told you so."   We know now that it was clearly a mistake for Detroit to not re-sign Filppula.  If we're thinking that Tatar is an easily replaceable player, maybe the past situation with Filppula is a lesson learned to draw upon.

And, I don't think anyone is suggesting that Tatar will walk for nothing.  So, I think that's a different conversation as well.

Edited by barabbas16

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6 hours ago, MileHighWingsGuy said:

Hopefully Tatar gets his one year deal and we can try to work out an extension with him during the season and if it seems we're at an impasse -- if and when that times comes, we flip him at the deadline.

Fixed it for you.

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6 hours ago, barabbas16 said:

Of course it's in hindsight.  It was 4 years ago. 

Peoples' opinions four years ago about Filppula are not relevant to the current conversation about Tatar.  I don't even remember if I posted anything about the Filppula/Weiss situation, but I'm not trying to say "I told you so."   We know now that it was clearly a mistake for Detroit to not re-sign Filppula.  If we're thinking that Tatar is an easily replaceable player, maybe the past situation with Filppula is a lesson learned to draw upon.

And, I don't think anyone is suggesting that Tatar will walk for nothing.  So, I think that's a different conversation as well.

It wasnt a mistake bc Filppula was a player you cant let walk. It was a mistake bc Weiss was a 100% failure and we came out with nothing. Fils contract went on to be a huge problem for TB once his production dropped after his first year there. I actually think Tatar is better than Val... but still not a player who really moves the needle.

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11 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

It wasnt a mistake bc Filppula was a player you cant let walk. It was a mistake bc Weiss was a 100% failure and we came out with nothing. Fils contract went on to be a huge problem for TB once his production dropped after his first year there. I actually think Tatar is better than Val... but still not a player who really moves the needle.

Just because a player is not one that "you can't let walk," does not mean that you should let them walk.  Filppula's contract did end up being a problem for TB down the line, but they were and are still in better position regarding Filppula than Detroit is regarding Weiss.  Detroit thought the grass was greener (or at least as green) on the other side with Filppula.  It wasn't.  The same could be the case with Tatar.

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9 minutes ago, barabbas16 said:

Just because a player is not one that "you can't let walk," does not mean that you should let them walk.  Filppula's contract did end up being a problem for TB down the line, but they were and are still in better position regarding Filppula than Detroit is regarding Weiss.  Detroit thought the grass was greener (or at least as green) on the other side with Filppula.  It wasn't.  The same could be the case with Tatar.

I think you're missing my point.

Whether Weiss scores 5 pts with us his first season or 100, Filppula's value as a player doesn't change. I'm not trying to get bogged down in whether Filppula or Hudler coming or going was a mistake or not. I'm trying to illustrate how non-crucial these players are.

When Fil left and Weiss flopped did it kill us? No.

When Hudler left and Brunner turned out to be a dud did it kill us? No.

When Tatar leaves and we bring in Jarome Iginla, who flops, to replace him will it kills us? It doesn't matter because we're not a playoff team anymore.

Were talking about replacing Kozlov, not Fedorov. This team will be fine with or without another Kozlov. Instead we should be focused on finding a Fedorov instead of paying and pleasing the Kozlovs of the world.

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28 minutes ago, barabbas16 said:

Just because a player is not one that "you can't let walk," does not mean that you should let them walk.  Filppula's contract did end up being a problem for TB down the line, but they were and are still in better position regarding Filppula than Detroit is regarding Weiss.  Detroit thought the grass was greener (or at least as green) on the other side with Filppula.  It wasn't.  The same could be the case with Tatar.

To be fair though, Weiss was coming off a wrist injury when we signed him and was a low end 1C. Nobody could have predicted he was about to suffer injuries to his abdominal that would eliminate his ability to even be a top 9 forward.

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6 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I think you're missing my point.

Whether Weiss scores 5 pts with us his first season or 100, Filppula's value as a player doesn't change. I'm not trying to get bogged down in whether Filppula or Hudler coming or going was a mistake or not. I'm trying to illustrate how non-crucial these players are.

When Fil left and Weiss flopped did it kill us? No.

When Hudler left and Brunner turned out to be a dud did it kill us? No.

When Tatar leaves and we bring in Jarome Iginla, who flops, to replace him will it kills us? It doesn't matter because we're not a playoff team anymore.

Were talking about replacing Kozlov, not Fedorov. This team will be fine with or without another Kozlov. Instead we should be focused on finding a Fedorov instead of paying and pleasing the Kozlovs of the world.

I wasn't missing your point.  We were just (kind of) trying to have two different conversations.  I was trying to get bogged down in whether Filppula or Hudler coming or going was a mistake or not.  I understand where you're going with your point....I just don't think that's where Holland is going. 

People can dream all they want about getting Stamkos or Tavares... via trade or free agency.  I just don't believe that's ever going to happen.  If this team is getting another Fedorov level player, in my opinion, it'll be through the draft.  But, I think Holland will try to remain competitive and will not tank.  So, I think it's likely that Holland will just try to replace Tatar with a similar player if he 'lets him walk.'  And, as a result, I see the past mistake with Filppula as potentially relevant in the current situation with Tatar.

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15 minutes ago, barabbas16 said:

I wasn't missing your point.  We were just (kind of) trying to have two different conversations.  I was trying to get bogged down in whether Filppula or Hudler coming or going was a mistake or not.  I understand where you're going with your point....I just don't think that's where Holland is going. 

People can dream all they want about getting Stamkos or Tavares... via trade or free agency.  I just don't believe that's ever going to happen.  If this team is getting another Fedorov level player, in my opinion, it'll be through the draft.  But, I think Holland will try to remain competitive and will not tank.  So, I think it's likely that Holland will just try to replace Tatar with a similar player if he 'lets him walk.'  And, as a result, I see the past mistake with Filppula as potentially relevant in the current situation with Tatar.

I agree that if an elite player is coming to this team under Holland it will be through the draft.

My concern is paying Tatar 5-6 million for 7 years. That's a lot of term and money for a player that I don't think moves the needle. And with the current state of the team, I'm not too concerned about moving the needle anyway. So I'm all for trading Tatar, getting some assets, and signing Vanek cheap to replace him. If Vanek is worse or totally flops, who cares, we're in a rebuild anyway... and it's better to have short cheap contracts in order to remain flexible in a rebuild.

If this team was competitive right now I'd be hollering to get Tatar locked in for the next 7 years, because I don't want to see another Fil/Weiss situtation, but this team isn't competitive right now.

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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17 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

If this team was competitive right now I'd be hollering to get Tatar locked in for the next 7 years, because I don't want to see another Fil/Weiss situtation, but this team isn't competitive right now.

I agree with this, and I find it important. Looking at a good old bell curve, we are projected to be decent in 4 to 6 years. Tatar doesn't fit that schedule and on top of that he is coming off a somewhat secretive shoulder surgery.

The shoulder is the most intricate junction in the upper body and thus the hardest to repair. Rehab and recovery on top of that. Then play top 6 in the NHL. Going in blind for 5+ years on that is madness in my opinion.

Lastly his size - it is a problem. Yes he has hands but is clearly undersized and suffers against the big top 4 defenders of opposing teams. He needs a piano puller to be effective. We simply have better options I think.

Edited by Jacksoni

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5 minutes ago, Jacksoni said:

I agree with this, and I find it important. Looking at a good old bell curve, we are projected to be decent in 4 to 6 years. Tatar doesn't fit that schedule and on top of that he is coming off a somewhat secretive shoulder surgery.

The shoulder is the most intricate junction in the upper body and thus the hardest to repair. Rehab and recovery on top of that. Then play top 6 in the NHL. Going in blind for 5+ years on that is madness in my opinion.

Lastly his size - it is a problem. Yes he has hands but clearly is undersized and suffers against the big top 4 defenders of the opposing teams. He needs a piano puller to be effective. We simply have better options I think.

He's basically Hudler with more quickness. Adding or subtracting another Hudler isn't going to make or break this team. I'm fine with keeping him, I just think 7 years, and maybe even 5, is unwise. Your point about healthcare concerns is a good one as well. 

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Letting Filppula and Hudler walk for nothing didn't kill us, but it would have been nice to get something for them. It's a lot harder to do that though when your team is still competing in the playoffs every year. It is and should be viewed as a very different situation now though. To let Tatar walk for nothing as a middling team would be a huge mistake. Say what you will about Tatar, but he does have value, and a lot of teams would likely be interested, to give their top 6 a boost. If it goes to arbitration and he receives the one year contract, and we're unable to get him signed at some point this season (for less than he's asking), we need to aggressively shop him at or before the trade deadline. A lot of players have been overpaid by $0.5-1M, and you can afford to do that with a few players, but not every player. It's unfortunate that all the role players are the ones that seem to have been overpaid, but just because they have been overpaid, doesn't necessarily mean we should be willing to do the same with every other player now. I hope Holland doesn't budge on his current price, and Tatar forces his hand to trade him in a package for a top pair defenseman.

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5 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Letting Filppula and Hudler walk for nothing didn't kill us, but it would have been nice to get something for them. It's a lot harder to do that though when your team is still competing in the playoffs every year. It is and should be viewed as a very different situation now though. To let Tatar walk for nothing as a middling team would be a huge mistake. Say what you will about Tatar, but he does have value, and a lot of teams would likely be interested, to give their top 6 a boost. If it goes to arbitration and he receives the one year contract, and we're unable to get him signed at some point this season (for less than he's asking), we need to aggressively shop him at or before the trade deadline. A lot of players have been overpaid by $0.5-1M, and you can afford to do that with a few players, but not every player. It's unfortunate that all the role players are the ones that seem to have been overpaid, but just because they have been overpaid, doesn't necessarily mean we should be willing to do the same with every other player now. I hope Holland doesn't budge on his current price, and Tatar forces his hand to trade him in a package for a top pair defenseman.

I fill in behind you on this. I do hope the cards fall right for it to happen, lots of moving parts obviously. It'll be very interesting to see how this unfolds;for me this has long term implications as to what route this team takes. Not by it's own but it is a major part.

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8 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Letting Filppula and Hudler walk for nothing didn't kill us, but it would have been nice to get something for them. It's a lot harder to do that though when your team is still competing in the playoffs every year. It is and should be viewed as a very different situation now though. To let Tatar walk for nothing as a middling team would be a huge mistake. Say what you will about Tatar, but he does have value, and a lot of teams would likely be interested, to give their top 6 a boost. If it goes to arbitration and he receives the one year contract, and we're unable to get him signed at some point this season (for less than he's asking), we need to aggressively shop him at or before the trade deadline. A lot of players have been overpaid by $0.5-1M, and you can afford to do that with a few players, but not every player. It's unfortunate that all the role players are the ones that seem to have been overpaid, but just because they have been overpaid, doesn't necessarily mean we should be willing to do the same with every other player now. I hope Holland doesn't budge on his current price, and Tatar forces his hand to trade him in a package for a top pair defenseman.

Just so you know, I agree with you. I don't want to give him away like we had to do with Val and Huds. There would be no excuse for letting him walk unless he signed a 1-year and we made the playoffs this season.

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On 7/15/2017 at 6:22 PM, PavelValerievichDatsyuk said:

... Just look at how the lightning traded him to the Flyers in anticipation of the expansion draft. They got Streit, and 4th + 7th round picks. I don't see any reason why he would have been bought out if we had re-signed him.

His last year in Detroit was pretty bad, but he had injured his medial collateral ligament in his right knee (had to look it up to remember the injury) during the lockout that year and never really got on track due to the injury.

Correction: TB gave up the 4th and (conditional) 7th. They then sent Streit to Pit for a 4th. So basically they paid to get rid of him.

That said, I agree we'd likely be better off if we had kept him and not signed Weiss/Richards/Nielsen.

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3 minutes ago, SwedeLundin77 said:

Just under 3 days to get a deal done with Tatar...  Will it happen or will he go to arbitration?  Please, Kenny, don't screw the pooch and overpay him, or lose him for nada!!!!  

We can't lose him. Worst case scenarios are the arbitrator gives him all the money he wants, or Tatar gets disgruntled by all this and walks away after a year deal. In the case of the former he better be traded.

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4 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

We can't lose him. Worst case scenarios are the arbitrator gives him all the money he wants, or Tatar gets disgruntled by all this and walks away after a year deal. In the case of the former he better be traded.

No, you misunderstand.  He said if he goes to arbitration, it's his last deal in Detroit, so if he walks then we lose him for nothing.  If he goes to arbitration, there is a chance that we lose him for nothing, as teams may be reluctant to trade any decent assets for a soon-to-be UFA whos contract demands are pretty well known and unrealistic.  The flip side is Holland overpays him because.... reasons.  So don't overpay or lose him for nada.  The middle ground being that we get him under contract right around 4.5-5.25 for 5 years or we sign him to a show-me contract for 1 year with the understanding that if he produces, we'll be there to sign him long-term for an increase in a year.

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