Will The Red Wings make the playoffs in '17-'18? (Poll Question)

[kylee 727]

Last year they were SIXTEEN POINTS out of a playoff spot. Will things turn around this year? I say yes, they will make it as a wild card. The powerplay won't be that horrendous again, Howard will be the starter and stay healthy and a couple players have bounce back seasons while Z still produces - that will be enough to get us in. 

Edited July 26, 2017 by kylee

[krsmith17 7,191]

I think we will be a better team this season than we were last, despite minimal personnel changes. I don't think it would be possible for every player to play as poorly as they did last season, and if the majority of the team sees even a slight spike in production, we should be much better. We will finish better than 79 points, but I don't think it will be enough to make the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong, but the only way I see this team making a large enough step to get back in contention, is if we make a trade or two. That's not happening. I think we finish with around 85-90 points, just outside the playoffs...

[DickieDunn 2,571]

While I admire Kylee's optimism, that's a big F@$# no.

Blashill is still the coach.

The defense improved but the forwards didn't unless all the younger guys take a step forward.

Howard can't be relied on to stay healthy, Mrazek can't be relied on to be less than terrible, and Coreau is just plain bad.

 

[BringBack19 110]

I just don't see how this team improved. Smith is better than Daley, and Kronwall is only going to be worse. Not to mention Big E is on the decline. I don't see how the defense improved at all, actually it may be worse. I don't think it is likely for Z to match his production from last year, but that should be offset by Mantha, Larkin, and AA taking another step forward. Tatar and Nyquist should be about around the same production. Howard is not going to replicate how good he was last year, nor will he be healthy all year. 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

1 hour ago, BringBack19 said:

I just don't see how this team improved. Smith is better than Daley, and Kronwall is only going to be worse. Not to mention Big E is on the decline. I don't see how the defense improved at all, actually it may be worse. I don't think it is likely for Z to match his production from last year, but that should be offset by Mantha, Larkin, and AA taking another step forward. Tatar and Nyquist should be about around the same production. Howard is not going to replicate how good he was last year, nor will he be healthy all year. 

I disagree. Daley is an improvement over Smith offensively, eats bigger minutes than Smit ever did with us, plays more on the PK, and blocks a lot more shots.

We got a nice deal on Daley because he's older, more injury prone, and Ken was willing to give 3 years plus an NTC (we have the most in the league again lol)

[jaymac17 10]

I just don't see how this team improved. Smith is better than Daley, and Kronwall is only going to be worse. Not to mention Big E is on the decline. I don't see how the defense improved at all, actually it may be worse. I don't think it is likely for Z to match his production from last year, but that should be offset by Mantha, Larkin, and AA taking another step forward. Tatar and Nyquist should be about around the same production. Howard is not going to replicate how good he was last year, nor will he be healthy all year. 

What is your rationale for these claims? Smith being better than daley is laughable! (And I like smith) I do agree with you on 55 and 52. I think kroner may well be heading for ltir. (Cap problem solved)I think we are justified to expect continued growth from Jensen and Ouellette. Why is it so impossible for Z to have another great yr? It seems as though the pessimists throw this claim out there simply because "he had a good yr so there's absolutely no way to do that twice" Actual evidence shows that Larkin is improving and will continue so again I agree with you there and am optimistic about mantha and AA as well. Sheahan will improve and score 25+ points. If there ever was an occasion to objectively analyze and classify a season as "bad luck" it was Riley Sheahan '16-'17. 14 and 21 contributing 50+ points will not surprise. And again with howard "he will not replicate last yr" why not? There's more reason and facts to support that he will than that he won't. Plus mrazek is an ultra confident, ultra competitive very skilled professional athlete who just b****-slapped in front of the entire league and he's in a contract year. I'd put money on him improving not regressing. The whole pessimism for the sake of pessimism because it's the popular narrative is stale and tiring.

Sent from my SM-G930R4 using Tapatalk

[GMRwings1983 8,793]

No.  The defense is still one of the weakest in the league and there's too many question marks about the forwards and goalies.  They need a spectacular season from their goalies and one of the young forwards has to take the next step and become an All Star caliber player.  I just don't see the latter happening, and the goalies will struggle with this slow, untalented defensive corps in front of them.  

If we had a prime Dominik Hasek, we'd still struggle to make the playoffs.  

[DickieDunn 2,571]

Kronwall and Franzen between them can only "clear" 10% of the cap, because that's all you can go over during the preseason.  I'm not sure it's enough to solve the issue, and even if it does it's an idiotic way to do business.

[krsmith17 7,191]

6 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Kronwall and Franzen between them can only "clear" 10% of the cap, because that's all you can go over during the preseason.  I'm not sure it's enough to solve the issue, and even if it does it's an idiotic way to do business.

Kronwall and Franzen going on LTIR would leave us with over $4M. Athanasiou shouldn't cost any more than $2.5 (and I think that's being a little generous). That leaves us with nearly $2M in wiggle room to call up another forward. I agree that relying on LTIR isn't the best way to do business, but if he was aware of the situation a month ago, before free agency, being in this situation is a little more understandable I guess...

[Krayzie_Bone 58]

I think they have a decent chance. They were playing fine at the start of last year before they fell off the face of the earth. They might sneak in like usual and get bounced in the first round.

Edited July 26, 2017 by Krayzie_Bone

[jaymac17wlc 0]

24 minutes ago, DickieDunn said:

Kronwall and Franzen between them can only "clear" 10% of the cap, because that's all you can go over during the preseason.  I'm not sure it's enough to solve the issue, and even if it does it's an idiotic way to do business.

Ltir has nothing to do with the preseason or the 10% over the cap that a team can be during the offseason. During the season when a team against the cap puts a player on ltir the amount under the cap that the team is is subtracted from the ltir player's cap hit. This result is the amount over the cap the team is permitted to operate at. In our situation it is good business because kronwall has a well documented chronic injury tailor made for ltir so we can move his hit until he's gone and not have cap recapture penalty that we'd have if he retired prior to contract expiring. And buying out would keep a portion of cap hit against us for several more years.

Edited July 26, 2017 by jaymac17wlc

[BringBack19 110]

4 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I disagree. Daley is an improvement over Smith offensively, eats bigger minutes than Smit ever did with us, plays more on the PK, and blocks a lot more shots.

We got a nice deal on Daley because he's older, more injury prone, and Ken was willing to give 3 years plus an NTC (we have the most in the league again lol)

What's strange about that is his shot suppression isn't as high as Smiths, and of course he gets more points than Smith he has had much better forwards to play with. If he is better overall it isn't by much...

4 hours ago, jaymac17 said:

What is your rationale for these claims? Smith being better than daley is laughable! (And I like smith) I do agree with you on 55 and 52. I think kroner may well be heading for ltir. (Cap problem solved)I think we are justified to expect continued growth from Jensen and Ouellette. Why is it so impossible for Z to have another great yr? It seems as though the pessimists throw this claim out there simply because "he had a good yr so there's absolutely no way to do that twice" Actual evidence shows that Larkin is improving and will continue so again I agree with you there and am optimistic about mantha and AA as well. Sheahan will improve and score 25+ points. If there ever was an occasion to objectively analyze and classify a season as "bad luck" it was Riley Sheahan '16-'17. 14 and 21 contributing 50+ points will not surprise. And again with howard "he will not replicate last yr" why not? There's more reason and facts to support that he will than that he won't. Plus mrazek is an ultra confident, ultra competitive very skilled professional athlete who just b****-slapped in front of the entire league and he's in a contract year. I'd put money on him improving not regressing. The whole pessimism for the sake of pessimism because it's the popular narrative is stale and tiring.

Sent from my SM-G930R4 using Tapatalk
 

You're right we are going to the Stanley Cup Finals... Everyone is going to be better, injuries are not going to happen, and Mrazek is going to have a vezna caliber season... I am not a pessimistic person, but this team has regressed every year since 08 why would that change now? 

[Wingnut1989 165]

We get worse every season, i say no

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

34 minutes ago, BringBack19 said:

What's strange about that is his shot suppression isn't as high as Smiths, and of course he gets more points than Smith he has had much better forwards to play with. If he is better overall it isn't by much...

You're right we are going to the Stanley Cup Finals... Everyone is going to be better, injuries are not going to happen, and Mrazek is going to have a vezna caliber season... I am not a pessimistic person, but this team has regressed every year since 08 why would that change now? 

What stat are you using to judge that?

Daley has produced better offensively throughout his career, not just with the Penguins.

[Euro_Twins 4,475]

3 hours ago, GMRwings1983 said:

No.  The defense is still one of the weakest in the league and there's too many question marks about the forwards and goalies.  They need a spectacular season from their goalies and one of the young forwards has to take the next step and become an All Star caliber player.  I just don't see the latter happening, and the goalies will struggle with this slow, untalented defensive corps in front of them.  

If we had a prime Dominik Hasek, we'd still struggle to make the playoffs.  

We already do. His name is petr Mrhasek 

[BringBack19 110]

1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

What stat are you using to judge that?

Daley has produced better offensively throughout his career, not just with the Penguins.

Corsi CF% vs CA%. Last year he gave up more than he created and at a worse rate than Smith. So he may block more shots but he also, as unimaginable as it may be, fails to clear the zone more which leads to more opposition offense. That was the breakdown on wiim, and data was backed by hockeyreference.com. 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

28 minutes ago, BringBack19 said:

Corsi CF% vs CA%. Last year he gave up more than he created and at a worse rate than Smith. So he may block more shots but he also, as unimaginable as it may be, fails to clear the zone more which leads to more opposition offense. That was the breakdown on wiim, and data was backed by hockeyreference.com. 

Based on hockeyanalysis.com Daley's CF% (adjusted for linemates and opposition corsi) was 48.65%. Smith's CF% (adjusted for linemates and opposition) was 49.35%. A negligible advantage to Smith of 0.7%.

Considering deployment...

Daley spent 2.22 minutes on the PK per game, and 1.38 on the PP per game

Smith spent 1.5 minutes on the PK per game, and 0.81 on the PP per game (The Rangers only gave him one 41 second shift on the PP, whereas the Wings gave him 1.21 per game)

Daley spent a lot more time on both special teams. It's also quite telling that the Rangers did not deploy Smith on the PP at all. Daley has been considered an offensive D-man much of his NHL career, whereas Smith only displayed those qualities in lower leagues.

 

[Dabura 12,206]

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

4 minutes ago, Dabura said:

[jaymac17wlc 0]

3 hours ago, BringBack19 said:

What's strange about that is his shot suppression isn't as high as Smiths, and of course he gets more points than Smith he has had much better forwards to play with. If he is better overall it isn't by much...

You're right we are going to the Stanley Cup Finals... Everyone is going to be better, injuries are not going to happen, and Mrazek is going to have a vezna caliber season... I am not a pessimistic person, but this team has regressed every year since 08 why would that change now? 

I said literally zero of those things

[Richdg 267]

Back to the topic at hand. Playoffs? No. Might be worse. The soph slump will get some of Mantha, AA, Oullett, and Jensen. Larkin should be better. Howard is good when healthy but it at the age he will not play 50-55 games. Mrazek is unknown at this point in time. Great ability but....... Kronwall is toast, E not far behind, and Z is at an age he can't do it every night to say nothing about his bad back.

Fact is we are going to get worse before we get better. On the plus side I think the getting better will be the 2018/19 season. So not far away.

[Keep Your Stick On the Ice 67]

No defense is still too much of a liability and there aint enough scoring.

[Hockeymom1960 5,107]

I'm going to stay positive.

[kickazz 5,459]

6 hours ago, Hockeymom1960 said:

I'm going to stay positive.

I agree. Make the playoffs and we have fun watching them at the LCA in round 1. Miss the playoffs we get another nice chance at a pick in strong 2018 draft.