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Athanasiou Signed 1 year $1.4 mil

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3 minutes ago, frankgrimes said:

Maybe it's breaking news to some but the RFA market is changing and it's changing drastically.

How so?

People are acting like Holland is committing some grave injustice and has catastrophiscally miscalculated. I don't see that at all. I see him offering AA market value. AA is not McDavid. AA is not Draisaitl. AA is not Pastrnak. AA is not Parayko. AA has scored some goals in a sheltered role and that's about it. He's also been exposed as a rather one-dimensional winger who needs to work on the defensive side of his game and learn to use his linemates more and learn to make more cerebral plays (as opposed to trying to outskate everyone and deke out three guys and deke out the goalie all by himself). He's very promising, but "very promising" doesn't necessarily get you $3M-per-year when you're a 23-year-old RFA with only 100 games of NHL experience He could end up being better than a lot of these young RFAs who've been given big deals, but guys in that category have mostly earned those contracts. At this time, AA really hasn't earned much.

What we might be offering him if we had more cap space isn't really relevant, and it's mistakenly assuming that Holland has just been winging it, doings things without a plan. It's not like he signed Daley and Tatar and then said, "OH S***, ONLY NOW DO I REALIZE THAT MONEY'S TIGHT! I wish I'd gone into these negotiations with some kind of plan!" I'm sure he and the rest of the brain trust mapped this stuff out to the best of their collective ability, possibly a year or two in advance. I have my problems with Holland, but he's not an idiot. When it comes to RFA deals, he knows what he's doing.

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19 minutes ago, frankgrimes said:

Maybe it's breaking news to some but the RFA market is changing and it's changing drastically. Í just refuse to believe that the Wings wouldn't offer a better contract if they had the capspace to do so maybe I'm wrong and it's still the old way of expecting some sort of discounts in order to have the honor to wear the winged wheel. But AA is not in the wrong here he thinks he is worth a bit more and if he gets it good for him. Connor Brown whom I'm a huge fan of is making 2,1 million per year maybe if the relationship is sour the Wings could trade AA for him.

It may be true that the RFA market is changing, but it's certainly not drastic. Some players are skipping the typical bridge deal, most still aren't (albeit very often because they don't yet have enough NHL experience when their ELCs expire). But the ironic thing here is doing so would generally be a bad thing for the player, as it would delay their big payday. If there's someone looking to resist that trend in the RFA market, logically it would be AA.

And we're not looking for a discount, per se, just market value (as could be derived from the deals given Donskoi, Lindberg, Faska, Hyman, Dzingel, Andrighetto, Nemestnikov, Rieder, Baertschi, Borwn and probably a few I missed). You could say that all RFAs are a bit of a discount relative to UFAs, or you could go the other way and say UFAs cost more (without being "worth" more) because you have to pay a premium in order to acquire them.

It might be true that we would have already made a better offer if we had more cap space, but the fact that we don't have the space to offer what we're already offering and could in fact already offer more based on the logical move we would already have to make suggests otherwise.

I'm guessing they'll end up settling somewhere in the $2.1-2.3 range. 

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1 hour ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

1) I asked Dickie

2) Abby was a UFA, AA is an RFA

3) Abby was an 8? year vet, AA only has 1 full season under his belt

These are not comparable.

I was looking for comparable players. What that means are players who are of similar age, with similar experience, and similar output.

You know Malkin is Pittsburgh's 2C right?

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44 minutes ago, Buppy said:

Some players are skipping the typical bridge deal, most still aren't (albeit very often because they don't yet have enough NHL experience when their ELCs expire).

I sometimes wonder if this isn't part of the reason why the Wings are so big on over-ripening and willing to let even our best prospects spend most of their ELC years in the AHL. In theory, it could add an extra layer of cost control, such that someone like Mantha will go into negotiations for his second contract with only two seasons of NHL experience as opposed to three or four seasons. Or consider Nyquist and Tatar. Had they become NHL regulars a year or two before each of them did, they might've had a bit more leverage in their post-ELC contract negotiations.

It's probably not a thing. And even if it is a thing, the Wings appear to be moving away from the over-ripening philosophy anyway (albeit out of necessity).

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1 hour ago, Buppy said:

It may be true that the RFA market is changing, but it's certainly not drastic. Some players are skipping the typical bridge deal, most still aren't (albeit very often because they don't yet have enough NHL experience when their ELCs expire). But the ironic thing here is doing so would generally be a bad thing for the player, as it would delay their big payday. If there's someone looking to resist that trend in the RFA market, logically it would be AA.

And we're not looking for a discount, per se, just market value (as could be derived from the deals given Donskoi, Lindberg, Faska, Hyman, Dzingel, Andrighetto, Nemestnikov, Rieder, Baertschi, Borwn and probably a few I missed). You could say that all RFAs are a bit of a discount relative to UFAs, or you could go the other way and say UFAs cost more (without being "worth" more) because you have to pay a premium in order to acquire them.

It might be true that we would have already made a better offer if we had more cap space, but the fact that we don't have the space to offer what we're already offering and could in fact already offer more based on the logical move we would already have to make suggests otherwise.

I'm guessing they'll end up settling somewhere in the $2.1-2.3 range. 

Of course he isn't in the McDavid etc. situation only %o of NHL players is and I also think you are right they'll settle somewhere in the low to mid 2 mill range which is still a very tradable contraact if the relationship is damaged so in either case both sides would win.

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10 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

You should get paid on your performance, not by how long you've been in the league.

Then your problem isn't with Holland, it's with the NHL/the owners. The deck is stacked against RFAs and that's by design. Owners and GMs want as much cost-control power over their players as they can possibly get.

I'd argue, though, that players generally do get "paid on their performance." It's just that a player's experience (or lack thereof) is inextricably part of the assessment of the player's performance to date. You can't cleanly separate the two.

AA is 23. He only has 100 games of NHL experience. His performance last season had some positives, but it also raised some red flags:

Story_48.png

He's an unknown at this time, a question mark. We don't yet know what we have in him. If anything, people should be praising Holland for not throwing money at an unproven player. What if Holland writes AA a blank check and then AA proceeds to disappoint? People would then be bashing Holland for overpaying yet another player.

AA is not going to Russia. It's an empty threat, a negotiating tactic. Offering $2M x 2 (market value!) and sticking to that offer is not a risky gamble. It's not dangerous. There's no real downside here. Maybe AA sits out part of the season. If he does, well, that's on him. He'd be selfishly putting himself above the team, all over $600K. That would not be a good look for him.

I'm with Buppy -- I think it's going to be $2-2.3 x 2. And I think it's going to be done soon.

Edited by Dabura

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9 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Holland is just a crap GM.  AA wants 2.5 mil?  That's a no brainer.  This deal should have been done a long time ago if that's the case.

 

"Sorry, AA.  I just cant part with the 600k."

 

"But Dekeyser, Abdelkader, Howard, Nielsen, Helm, and Ericsson got 4 million + each, and I outproduce all of them."

 

"Gotta take this call, AA.  Sorry.  Final offer."

You realize that's a roughly 25% difference right? So if someone is worth 8 million we should just give it to them even though they are worth 6 million??

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I guess it all depends on what your definition of "fair" is. The reason I say that 1.9 x 2 is "fair" is because its within 500K of what I perceive as fair market value. If I'm not mistaken AA is looking for 2.5-3 per? By my definition 2.5 is fair, but 3.0 is way high. Someone else's idea of "fair" may be different. That's fine, that's what debate is all about.

I don't care if Holland is 10 mil under the cap or over, AA is not worth that much- regardless of cap implications. There are at least 6 forwards on this roster that I would play over him on the top 2 lines. He is a 3rd liner at this point. He has yet to prove to me that he can be a top 6 forward consistently. He has yet to prove to me that he can play center, which of course would warrant a higher salary. He has too many holes in his play at this point, and until I see a more rounded player, which I certainly hopes he becomes, he is worth somewhere between 1.9 to 2.5 to me. 1.9 is not "lowballing" - neither is 2.5 "overpayment". He may very well turn into a top 6 forward or even a 2C, and I hope he does- but right now he is overpricing himself IMO, and KH should not give in.

And if AA wants to play sooner than later, he will have to give in. The Wings can afford for him to sit. Can he afford to not get paid? Not indefinitely, which is why if he was willing to come down to say 2.2, I think he would be signed by now. If he stays at 2.5 or over, he is going to end up with warm cushions on his sofa.

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On 9/22/2017 at 12:19 PM, Buppy said:

You're off base on this one. 

For one, even to give the $1.9 offer he has to move Sheahan (or do something similar). Doing that would actually give us ~$2.3 for AA if we replace Sheahan with Bertuzzi (or ~$2.1 with Svech), without making any other moves or any LTIR besides Franzen. It doesn't seem likely that the cap situation is the main issue, or even necessarily an issue at all.

Looking around the league at comparable players puts the market value at right around $1.9 for 2 years; just what we're offering. Unlikely that is a coincidence. Is he worth more? Maybe, depending on how you want to define "worth", and I would guess we'll end up settling a little higher. But we are absolutely not lowballing him, much less insultingly so. You like AA, so you're letting your emotions cloud your reasoning. 

 

The "comparable players" argument isn't a good one, for a couple of reasons.  First, there aren't many comparable players to AA.  His goals/60 is INSANE. He's a complete outlier.  Secondly, a 20 goals scorer (for example) on a team full of 20 goal scorers has less value than a 20 goal scorer on a team that doesn't have any. We need AA's offense more than the Penguins (for example) probably would.  As a result we'll have to pay more.  Ken Holland is trying this tactic and it seems to be sticking, but at the end of the day it's all about supply and demand. AA can supply goals in a league where that's important.  The Wings NEED goals pretty badly, enough that they probably should just give the guy the 2.5 million he's asking for.

As for Sheahan, I'm not sure why trading him is such an issue.  Any or all of Neilsen, Larkin, or Helm can be our 3rd line center, and Sheahan hasn't even been playing center consistently.  So you can add a bunch of wingers as well.  He's totally replaceable.  AA, on the other hand, really isn't on our offensively inept team.

Edited by kipwinger

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1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

The "comparable players" argument isn't a good one, for a couple of reasons.  First, there aren't many comparable players to AA.  His goals/60 is INSANE. He's a complete outlier.  Secondly, a 20 goals scorer (for example) on a team full of 20 goal scorers has less value than a 20 goal scorer on a team that doesn't have any. We need AA's offense more than the Penguins (for example) probably would.  As a result we'll have to pay more.  Ken Holland is trying this tactic and it seems to be sticking, but at the end of the day it's all about supply and demand. AA can supply goals in a league where that's important.  The Wings NEED goals pretty badly, enough that they probably should just give the guy the 2.5 million he's asking for.

As for Sheahan, I'm not sure why trading him is such an issue.  Any or all of Neilsen, Larkin, or Helm can be our 3rd line center, and Sheahan hasn't even been playing center consistently.  So you can add a bunch of wingers as well.  He's totally replaceable.  AA, on the other hand, really isn't on our offensively inept team.

I think there are alot of holes in that argument as well. With that logic, if you are a 20 goal scorer on a team filled with other 20 goal scorers, then your value shouldn't be as high, and as a result take less money. That would never fly in arbitration or negotiation. For that same logic, a 20 goal scorer on a bad team, would never be paid more simply because the team he plays on is bad.

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21 hours ago, kliq said:

1) I asked Dickie

2) Abby was a UFA, AA is an RFA

3) Abby was an 8? year vet, AA only has 1 full season under his belt

These are not comparable.

I was looking for comparable players. What that means are players who are of similar age, with similar experience, and similar output.

You know Malkin is Pittsburgh's 2C right?

Look at what players who had a similar year to AA got.  It was in the $2.2 mil range.  "Oh," the apologists will say, " most of those players were drafted higher or have played another year in the NHL."  Doesn't matter.  If anything, the fact that he put up those numbers at a younger age than they did suggest he cold be better.

The other argument is "well, what will they have to pay Mantha and Larkin if AA gets $2.5?"  The answer is market value, and it wouldn't be an issue if not for all of the bad contracts, which is why I got so pissed that every UFA signed by Holland lately got " just $500k or so too much."  Kissazz and the rest of the Holland slappy crew said it wasn't a big deal  when anyone who understood basic math could figure out that $500k too much for each of 6 or 7 players adds up to a lot of money.  Nielsen was an absolute stupid signing, even though in a vacuum it' isn't "horrible."  They got an aging guy who has never been more than a 2nd line center and who is declining into solidly 3C ability to help make up for losing one of the best Wings players in the last 40 years, and he helped lead them to their worst season in decades.  Glad we had him so they could finish next to last in the conference instead of last, that would have been REALLY embarrassing!  :eh: If we're REALLY lucky, maybe the team will a;; miraculously rebound and they'll get the 8th seed this year and get swept, losing any shot of a top 3 pick in the draft.

 

Don't sign Nielsen to that deal, everyone has plenty of room to sign.  Don't give GLendening double what he's worth, AA can sign.  Don't pay grinders approaching their 30th birthday too much, AA can sign and they won't have to be concerned about Mantha and Larkin's next deals.

Edited by DickieDunn

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3 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

Look at what players who had a similar year to AA got.  It was in the $2.2 mil range.  "Oh," the apologists will say, " most of those players were drafted higher or have played another year in the NHL."  Doesn't matter.  If anything, the fact that he put up those numbers at a younger age than they did suggest he cold be better.

The other argument is "well, what will they have to pay Mantha and Larkin if AA gets $2.5?"  The answer is market value, and it wouldn't be an issue if not for all of the bad contracts, which is why I got so pissed that every UFA signed by Holland lately got " just $500k or so too much."  Kissazz and the rest of the Holland slappy crew said it wasn't a big deal  when anyone who understood basic math could figure out that $500k too much for each of 6 or 7 players adds up to a lot of money.  Nielsen was an absolute stupid signing, even though in a vacuum it' isn't "horrible."  They got an aging guy who has never been more than a 2nd line center and who is declining into solidly 3C ability to help make up for losing one of the best Wings players in the last 40 years, and he helped lead them to their worst season in decades.  Glad we had him so they could finish next to last in the conference instead of last, that would have been REALLY embarrassing!  :eh: If we're REALLY lucky, maybe the team will a;; miraculously rebound and they'll get the 8th seed this year and get swept, losing any shot of a top 3 pick in the draft.

 

Don't sign Nielsen to that deal, everyone has plenty of room to sign.  Don't give GLendening double what he's worth, AA can sign.  Don't pay grinders approaching their 30th birthday too much, AA can sign and they won't have to be concerned about Mantha and Larkin's next deals.

Yawn. Quit your bitching already. It's gotten boring. You've cried wolf all season and it hasn't changed anyone's opinion. We get it, you're a bitter man with nothing positive to say. 

Edited by kickazz

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1 hour ago, DickieDunn said:

Look at what players who had a similar year to AA got.  It was in the $2.2 mil range.  "Oh," the apologists will say, " most of those players were drafted higher or have played another year in the NHL."  Doesn't matter.  If anything, the fact that he put up those numbers at a younger age than they did suggest he cold be better.

The other argument is "well, what will they have to pay Mantha and Larkin if AA gets $2.5?"  The answer is market value, and it wouldn't be an issue if not for all of the bad contracts, which is why I got so pissed that every UFA signed by Holland lately got " just $500k or so too much."  Kissazz and the rest of the Holland slappy crew said it wasn't a big deal  when anyone who understood basic math could figure out that $500k too much for each of 6 or 7 players adds up to a lot of money.  Nielsen was an absolute stupid signing, even though in a vacuum it' isn't "horrible."  They got an aging guy who has never been more than a 2nd line center and who is declining into solidly 3C ability to help make up for losing one of the best Wings players in the last 40 years, and he helped lead them to their worst season in decades.  Glad we had him so they could finish next to last in the conference instead of last, that would have been REALLY embarrassing!  :eh: If we're REALLY lucky, maybe the team will a;; miraculously rebound and they'll get the 8th seed this year and get swept, losing any shot of a top 3 pick in the draft.

 

Don't sign Nielsen to that deal, everyone has plenty of room to sign.  Don't give GLendening double what he's worth, AA can sign.  Don't pay grinders approaching their 30th birthday too much, AA can sign and they won't have to be concerned about Mantha and Larkin's next deals.

Ok......I have a feeling you misinterpreted something I said, because this post has nothing to do with my question, and I don't even necessarily disagree with a lot of these point. My post to Bill saying "I asked Dickie" was because Bill just posted a link to Abby's profile which you and I both know is not a comparable. Maybe its a bad contract, but thats not a comparable. 

You said:

On 9/22/2017 at 1:19 PM, DickieDunn said:

They'd match, then pray for the LTIR fairy to visit

There were 2 offers.  2x$1.9 and 1 year at $1.4.  That's a lowball.  Leverage or not, AA should be getting more than either of those deals, that's been the market for similar RFA's.

I said:

On 9/22/2017 at 1:54 PM, kliq said:

What are your comparable that define what the market is?

So I again ask.....if you are going to cite "the market" I am just asking who you are talking about? I am not saying you are wrong so no need to get defensive. I truthfully want to know what the comparables are.

Edited by kliq

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10 hours ago, kipwinger said:

The "comparable players" argument isn't a good one, for a couple of reasons.  First, there aren't many comparable players to AA.  His goals/60 is INSANE. He's a complete outlier.  Secondly, a 20 goals scorer (for example) on a team full of 20 goal scorers has less value than a 20 goal scorer on a team that doesn't have any. We need AA's offense more than the Penguins (for example) probably would.  As a result we'll have to pay more.  Ken Holland is trying this tactic and it seems to be sticking, but at the end of the day it's all about supply and demand. AA can supply goals in a league where that's important.  The Wings NEED goals pretty badly, enough that they probably should just give the guy the 2.5 million he's asking for.

As for Sheahan, I'm not sure why trading him is such an issue.  Any or all of Neilsen, Larkin, or Helm can be our 3rd line center, and Sheahan hasn't even been playing center consistently.  So you can add a bunch of wingers as well.  He's totally replaceable.  AA, on the other hand, really isn't on our offensively inept team.

You're exaggerating a bit. His goals/60 was tied for 29th among forwards playing 30 or more games, trailing such "superstars" as Brett Connolly, Nazem Kadri, Michael Grabner, and Tyler Pitlick. While it is very good, you shouldn't ignore that it is a small sample size. Magnus Paajarvi scored at an almost identical rate and just signed for 1yr/$800K, because he isn't actually good despite his great stats in a small sample. Vanek, who was a UFA, better in every way while with the Wings, and has a history of very good scoring just got $2M for 1 year. 

I would also argue with your second point. We have 7 other forwards who could potentially score 20+ goals (or 6 if we don't think Zetterberg can do it anymore). Another handful that could score in the teens. I don't believe our scoring issues have been the result of individual ability, nor that AA is as vital as you suggest. I think Svech could probably step into AAs role and give reasonably close results. Parenteau scored 20 just two years ago. You've said previously that you believe Frk could be a decent depth scorer. The most we should reasonably expect from AA over whatever replacement is maybe 5-10 goals. He's not a make-or-break player.

And I don't think anyone has any issue with trading Sheahan. I think Holland just doesn't want to trade him and then see AA sign in Russia anyway. Probably not in love with the idea of trading low on him either. But it should be noted that we do not have to trade Sheahan (or anyone else) before we sign AA. We can go over the cap by another ~$4.5 million for now, so we have plenty of room. We would just have get compliant by the start of the season. 

In the end, everyone is making this out to be a way bigger deal than it really is. There's usually a few RFA holdouts every year, and most are likely due to things we fans would think are small issues. A little money, or an extra year. Why don't they just give it to him, or why doesn't he just take the deal. It'll eventually get worked out, and everyone will forget about it. 

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30 minutes ago, Buppy said:

You're exaggerating a bit. His goals/60 was tied for 29th among forwards playing 30 or more games, trailing such "superstars" as Brett Connolly, Nazem Kadri, Michael Grabner, and Tyler Pitlick. While it is very good, you shouldn't ignore that it is a small sample size. Magnus Paajarvi scored at an almost identical rate and just signed for 1yr/$800K, because he isn't actually good despite his great stats in a small sample. Vanek, who was a UFA, better in every way while with the Wings, and has a history of very good scoring just got $2M for 1 year. 

I would also argue with your second point. We have 7 other forwards who could potentially score 20+ goals (or 6 if we don't think Zetterberg can do it anymore). Another handful that could score in the teens. I don't believe our scoring issues have been the result of individual ability, nor that AA is as vital as you suggest. I think Svech could probably step into AAs role and give reasonably close results. Parenteau scored 20 just two years ago. You've said previously that you believe Frk could be a decent depth scorer. The most we should reasonably expect from AA over whatever replacement is maybe 5-10 goals. He's not a make-or-break player.

And I don't think anyone has any issue with trading Sheahan. I think Holland just doesn't want to trade him and then see AA sign in Russia anyway. Probably not in love with the idea of trading low on him either. But it should be noted that we do not have to trade Sheahan (or anyone else) before we sign AA. We can go over the cap by another ~$4.5 million for now, so we have plenty of room. We would just have get compliant by the start of the season. 

In the end, everyone is making this out to be a way bigger deal than it really is. There's usually a few RFA holdouts every year, and most are likely due to things we fans would think are small issues. A little money, or an extra year. Why don't they just give it to him, or why doesn't he just take the deal. It'll eventually get worked out, and everyone will forget about it. 

I'm not really sure why you're playing devil's advocate here.  All the way back on page 11 you agreed with me when I said AA should make between 2.5-3 million per year.  Now suddenly you think 1.9 is good value.  Seems like you're just being contrary. If Holland had offered the money that both you (as of a week ago) and I think is "fair" AA would be signed right now. 

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25 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I'm not really sure why you're playing devil's advocate here.  All the way back on page 11 you agreed with me when I said AA should make between 2.5-3 million per year.  Now suddenly you think 1.9 is good value.  Seems like you're just being contrary. If Holland had offered the money that both you (as of a week ago) and I think is "fair" AA would be signed right now. 

Different arguments. I said I didn't think $3M would be a bad deal, and I don't. I like him and I think he would be worth it, especially if it was for a longer term. But I also said it was above market value, which it is, and which is what I'm arguing now.

Maybe I am contrarian. I get annoyed by this whole dynamic. Something doesn't go exactly the way we want and it's 'so and so is an idiot', or 'that guy sucks', always attacking something, everything extreme. There aren't any villains here. Neither side is really wrong, and you'll notice I haven't once been critical of AA for holding out or asking for more.

It's a negotiation. It would be great if every one went smoothly, and both sides got exactly what they wanted on day one, but that's not how the world works. Judging by the closest comparables we can find, what Holland is offering is a fair deal. AA and his agent are trying to make their case as to why he deserves more (and I would assume that case amounts to more than calling Holland an idiot for past decisions and saying "no one compares to AA"). That's what we should expect. Kind of sucks that it's taking this long, but that happens sometimes. If we can keep our difficult RFA negotiations down to once every 20 years, then we should all send Holland and all of the agents he's dealt with a fruit basket or something.

 

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12 minutes ago, Buppy said:

Different arguments. I said I didn't think $3M would be a bad deal, and I don't. I like him and I think he would be worth it, especially if it was for a longer term. But I also said it was above market value, which it is, and which is what I'm arguing now.

Maybe I am contrarian. I get annoyed by this whole dynamic. Something doesn't go exactly the way we want and it's 'so and so is an idiot', or 'that guy sucks', always attacking something, everything extreme. There aren't any villains here. Neither side is really wrong, and you'll notice I haven't once been critical of AA for holding out or asking for more.

It's a negotiation. It would be great if every one went smoothly, and both sides got exactly what they wanted on day one, but that's not how the world works. Judging by the closest comparables we can find, what Holland is offering is a fair deal. AA and his agent are trying to make their case as to why he deserves more (and I would assume that case amounts to more than calling Holland an idiot for past decisions and saying "no one compares to AA"). That's what we should expect. Kind of sucks that it's taking this long, but that happens sometimes. If we can keep our difficult RFA negotiations down to once every 20 years, then we should all send Holland and all of the agents he's dealt with a fruit basket or something.

 

Straw man.  I've never said Holland was an idiot, nor anything like it.  I said he was lowballing AA to bail himself out of the cap trouble that he put himself in, but that's about it.  If you want to respond to the people who call Holland an idiot, do so.  But you responded to me, and are now insinuating that I'm in that same camp because I think Holland should sign the kid to a contract that you seem alright with.  Your criticism of the "Holland sucks" crowd is appropriate, but it's got nothing to do with me.  My only argument has been that maybe in a team as bad offensively as ours is, our GM should probably think about offering one of his better goal scorers more than he's paying Luke Glendening.

And if you don't think this has anything to do with the cap, I'd point to the relative ease with which Holland signed any number of unproven or unproductive players when he had the money to do so.  I notice he never held Glendening, or Helm, or Abby, or Sheahan, or Ericsson over the coals for a couple hundred thousand dollars, but suddenly he draws a hard line on AA.  Hmmm...I wonder what changed?

Edited by kipwinger

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12 hours ago, DickieDunn said:

Look at what players who had a similar year to AA got.  It was in the $2.2 mil range.  "Oh," the apologists will say, " most of those players were drafted higher or have played another year in the NHL."  Doesn't matter.  If anything, the fact that he put up those numbers at a younger age than they did suggest he cold be better.

The other argument is "well, what will they have to pay Mantha and Larkin if AA gets $2.5?"  The answer is market value, and it wouldn't be an issue if not for all of the bad contracts, which is why I got so pissed that every UFA signed by Holland lately got " just $500k or so too much."  Kissazz and the rest of the Holland slappy crew said it wasn't a big deal  when anyone who understood basic math could figure out that $500k too much for each of 6 or 7 players adds up to a lot of money.  Nielsen was an absolute stupid signing, even though in a vacuum it' isn't "horrible."  They got an aging guy who has never been more than a 2nd line center and who is declining into solidly 3C ability to help make up for losing one of the best Wings players in the last 40 years, and he helped lead them to their worst season in decades.  Glad we had him so they could finish next to last in the conference instead of last, that would have been REALLY embarrassing!  :eh: If we're REALLY lucky, maybe the team will a;; miraculously rebound and they'll get the 8th seed this year and get swept, losing any shot of a top 3 pick in the draft.

Don't sign Nielsen to that deal, everyone has plenty of room to sign.  Don't give GLendening double what he's worth, AA can sign.  Don't pay grinders approaching their 30th birthday too much, AA can sign and they won't have to be concerned about Mantha and Larkin's next deals.

My earlier response was done quickly from the game. Now that I am paying more attention to what you actually wrote I will address each part as its much more pissy then I realized.

"Oh," the apologists will say, " most of those players were drafted higher or have played another year in the NHL."  Doesn't matter.  If anything, the fact that he put up those numbers at a younger age than they did suggest he cold be better.

As far as the draft part goes, who made this argument? I don't give a crap where someone was drafted, its about their production. As far as how many years a player has played, that does matter as its simple statistics and you don't need a PhD to understand this. The smaller the sample size, the less likely you are at getting an accurate picture of what a player can do. If AA put up those numbers 2 years in a row, you're damn right it matters, just because it doesnt matter to you means nothing.

The other argument is "well, what will they have to pay Mantha and Larkin if AA gets $2.5?"  The answer is market value, and it wouldn't be an issue if not for all of the bad contracts, which is why I got so pissed that every UFA signed by Holland lately got " just $500k or so too much."  Kissazz and the rest of the Holland slappy crew said it wasn't a big deal  when anyone who understood basic math could figure out that $500k too much for each of 6 or 7 players adds up to a lot of money.

Again, why are you so pissy? You're trying to create this false narrative that everyone is pro Holland and you are attempting to twist any logical point people make into a "You're just a Holland slappy" narrative in a failed attempt to dismiss their point. I have said it before, and I will say it again, I don't necessarily disagree with a lot of the points you try to make, I don't think you are a dumb poster, what I argue is your over the top nature and the extreme's you go to when making the points. Secondly, it's not the 500K extra a few players on this team are being paid that is hurting this team, check other payrolls, that is just the NHL and a product of unrestricted free agency. What is hurting this team is the amount of contracts given out to mid range players. Take away say Helm, Glendening, and E's contracts, and we are not in anymore cap trouble. 

Nielsen was an absolute stupid signing, even though in a vacuum it' isn't "horrible."  They got an aging guy who has never been more than a 2nd line center and who is declining into solidly 3C ability to help make up for losing one of the best Wings players in the last 40 years, and he helped lead them to their worst season in decades.  Glad we had him so they could finish next to last in the conference instead of last, that would have been REALLY embarrassing!  :eh: If we're REALLY lucky, maybe the team will a;; miraculously rebound and they'll get the 8th seed this year and get swept, losing any shot of a top 3 pick in the draft.

I have said many many many times on here that I didn't like the Nielsen signing, not sure why you are using this in a point towards me. The only thing I ever said about him to you, was when you were ranting about how he was not a 2C, I showed stats proving he was a low end 2C, high end 3C. This does not mean I liked the signing, or that I disagreed with the main aspect of your point.

Don't sign Nielsen to that deal, everyone has plenty of room to sign.  Don't give GLendening double what he's worth, AA can sign.  Don't pay grinders approaching their 30th birthday too much, AA can sign and they won't have to be concerned about Mantha and Larkin's next deals.

I don't disagree with most of this, and I dont think others do either. Not sure why you insist on ranting about this in every other post. The only thing I would counter here, is that I believe Holland is playing hardball  with AA because precedents set in RFA negotiations are different then one's set in UFA negotiations. Does that mean that by thinking this I like all the UFA signings? No. 

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On 9/24/2017 at 2:40 AM, kipwinger said:

Straw man.  I've never said Holland was an idiot, nor anything like it.  I said he was lowballing AA to bail himself out of the cap trouble that he put himself in, but that's about it.  If you want to respond to the people who call Holland an idiot, do so.  But you responded to me, and are now insinuating that I'm in that same camp because I think Holland should sign the kid to a contract that you seem alright with.  Your criticism of the "Holland sucks" crowd is appropriate, but it's got nothing to do with me.  My only argument has been that maybe in a team as bad offensively as ours is, our GM should probably think about offering one of his better goal scorers more than he's paying Luke Glendening.

And if you don't think this has anything to do with the cap, I'd point to the relative ease with which Holland signed any number of unproven or unproductive players when he had the money to do so.  I notice he never held Glendening, or Helm, or Abby, or Sheahan, or Ericsson over the coals for a couple hundred thousand dollars, but suddenly he draws a hard line on AA.  Hmmm...I wonder what changed?

Fair enough, sorry if I overstated the level of your Holland criticism. (Though in my defense, I meant that part as more of a generalization about the board as a whole.) 

I still say you're wrong about the lowballing/insulting offer. At worst, he's maybe slightly toward the low end of the fair range, but nothing that should warrant criticism. Again, it's a negotiation. You are making a big assumption with this idea that Holland has just given everyone else whatever they were asking for. That it's all just Holland being more obstinate than usual. 

When Helm was coming off a 24 point season (and also being a good defensive center and PK leader), why are we so sure he wasn't asking for a little more than the ~$912K he got? Or Sheahan more than $950K after scoring 24 in 42 games. Or Dekeyser after scoring 23 in 65 as a defenseman and playing 20+ minutes a night maybe wanted a little more than ~$2.2M. Maybe it's AA being more stubborn than most players. 

When Glendening was coming off his ELC, he signed for 3 years @ ~$630K. That he (and others) have been treated well after paying their dues should, if anything, give AA confidence that he too will be treated well when his time comes. The same argument you are making could be used to say AA should get more than Helm or Abdelkader, or a similar deal to Nyquist, Tatar, and Nielsen. But no one (not even AA) thinks that because everyone knows he's not in the same situation. So he shouldn't be compared to Glendening either. 

And maybe you're right that having more free cap space would make Holland more amenable to paying more. But the reason I don't believe that is the main issue is the math I mentioned earlier. Upping our offer to ~$2.3M really changes nothing in terms of what we would have to do to become compliant. There isn't really any urgency here, so it's somewhat more plausible that Holland is just waiting it out to see if we can avoid trading Sheahan. (And that might make sense depending on what, if any, offer we have for him.) Maybe we're thinking of waiving Ouellet, and expecting he'd clear, which would then give us just a hair under $2M, but that would surprise me given Sproul's injury. And even if we did want to say it's all just the cap situation, it doesn't really change anything. Being angry about past decisions doesn't give us extra cap space.

Edited by Buppy

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I am sad this thread still exists figured he would have signed by now in fact said 2.2 for 2 3 days before camp.  Wondering is it him or the birdies(agent, friends etc) showing him his highlight reels saying you are worth waaay more than 2.2. 

Time to either sheet or get off the pot.....

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2 hours ago, AtlantaHotWings said:

I am sad this thread still exists figured he would have signed by now in fact said 2.2 for 2 3 days before camp.  Wondering is it him or the birdies(agent, friends etc) showing him his highlight reels saying you are worth waaay more than 2.2. 

Time to either sheet or get off the pot.....

The Winged Wheel podcast had a pretty level headed take on the situation and I really agree it's basically a win win situation:

AA signs: Wings have a young third line winger with second line updside

AA walks: capspace plus the Wings are worse thus improving their chances for Dahlin

And that's exactly where I'm at now I don't care anymore because it's really a win win situation

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