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ChristopherReevesLegs

Two Tendies Enter. One Tendy Lives.

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Red Wings Goalie Going Forward  

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I don't think the questions about Mrazek's potential are as cut and dried as his critics are making out. Yes the last 20 months he's been far too aggressive, and his positioning has been off at times. But he was playing at an almost elite level before that, and has still posted very impressive shut-outs intermittently since then despite being awful in other games. 

I know we've seen many backup goalies fall off a cliff after an impressive run, but Mrazek played his best as a starter. Also worth remembering that by the age Mrazek is now Jimmy had won a grand total of 3 NHL games. Mrazek has won 66 with 11 shutouts.

By the same age in the NHL:

Ed Belfour - 4 wins 0 shutouts

Lundqvist - 67 wins 7 shutouts

Kiprusoff - 8 wins 2 shutouts

Hasek 3 wins 0 shutouts

Cory Schneider 18 wins 1 shutout.

Bobrovsky 43 wins 4 shutouts

Rask 47 wins 11 shutouts

Rinne 1 win 0 shutouts

Ryan Miller 36 wins 3 shutouts.

This isn't to say that Mrazek will ever be as good as any of the above. But writing off a 25 year old goaltender who has had 2 stretches of being statistically great because he's had 18 months of poor play on a low end team with awful defense seems a little premature.

At least we need to give him chance this year to see if he can rebound.

No great shock that his stats have fallen off a cliff under Blash...just like half the team....

 

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17 minutes ago, lomekian said:

I don't think the questions about Mrazek's potential are as cut and dried as his critics are making out. Yes the last 20 months he's been far too aggressive, and his positioning has been off at times. But he was playing at an almost elite level before that, and has still posted very impressive shut-outs intermittently since then despite being awful in other games. 

I know we've seen many backup goalies fall off a cliff after an impressive run, but Mrazek played his best as a starter. Also worth remembering that by the age Mrazek is now Jimmy had won a grand total of 3 NHL games. Mrazek has won 66 with 11 shutouts.

By the same age in the NHL:

Ed Belfour - 4 wins 0 shutouts

Lundqvist - 67 wins 7 shutouts

Kiprusoff - 8 wins 2 shutouts

Hasek 3 wins 0 shutouts

Cory Schneider 18 wins 1 shutout.

Bobrovsky 43 wins 4 shutouts

Rask 47 wins 11 shutouts

Rinne 1 win 0 shutouts

Ryan Miller 36 wins 3 shutouts.

This isn't to say that Mrazek will ever be as good as any of the above. But writing off a 25 year old goaltender who has had 2 stretches of being statistically great because he's had 18 months of poor play on a low end team with awful defense seems a little premature.

At least we need to give him chance this year to see if he can rebound.

No great shock that his stats have fallen off a cliff under Blash...just like half the team....

 

What does age matter here? Talk to us about how those goalies did 3 seasons into their NHL careers. 

Anyways the issue with Mrazek is he started off good and then declined. You always want to see an upward trend, at the very least try to bounce back. His was on and off, great, then declined. Eventually lost the starter position because he simply wasn’t good last year. 

They’re not just going to hand him the starter position on a platter, he has to earn it. Unfortunately for him he did and lost it...

Edited by kickazz

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1 minute ago, kickazz said:

What does age matter here? Talk to us about how those goalies did 3 seasons into their NHL careers. 

Anyways the issue with Mrazek is he started off good and then declined. You always want to see an upward trend. His was on and off, great, then declined. Eventually lost the starter position because he simply wasn’t good last year. 

Age matters because most goalies don;t hit their peak till their late 20s early 30s. Hell when Price was 24/25 there was talk that he was a bust.

 

But Ok  we'll play the game - 3 full years in:

Mrazek - Career average .912 (coming off a 9.01 season)

Ryan Miller had just averaged .906 and had a considerably worse career save % than Mrazek

Rinne averaged .915 having come off a .911 season

Rask - .925 coming off a .929 - smashed it!

Bobrovsky - .932! - previous 2 seasons averaged .906 ish (a brutal .898 in there)

Cory Schneider - an excellent .927 - followed by .880 in the playoffs

Hasek - a brilliant 9.30 after 2 sub .900 seasons

Kiprusoff - .923 - His best career season.

Lundqvist - .912 - .909 in the playoffs

Belfour - .894 (but scoring was much higher than).

So what we know is at the age of 25 and 9 months Mrazek had achieved similarly to Lundqvist and Rask and better than all the others at the same age.

Comparative after 3 years of NHL experience, Mrazek's recent numbers are worse than most listed, but career wise at the same point only really much behind Rask & Schnieder, and touch behind Bobrovsky.

Which entirely backs up my main point - he needs to get a run of games to see if he can rebound as some of those guys did at various points, or if he;s a busted flush as far as the wings are concerned.

Oddly enough, after his first 2 full seasons, he was better than any of the above bar Rask, and by the age of 24, many of the guys above hadn't even made an impact at NHL level.

We know what Jimmy is. A solid, slightly injury prone 2nd tier starter, who with good team defence can put up good numbers, but looks exposed when our team falls apart. If this team isn't going to make the playoffs (if - ha!), we need to see if our guy with a higher ceiling can have a future here. 

If the rest of this season doesn't improve for him, THEN its time to cut our losses. But playing the guy in our hardest road games and not picking him much after a very good shut out doesn't seem like the coach wants to help him succeed.

 

 

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On 03/12/2017 at 1:26 PM, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

mad-max-beyond-thunderdome-tina-turner.j

What an embarrassment this team is at the moment.

When I started on this board the Red Wings had the repuation of not only being annoyingly good year after year, but also being the best organization in sports. No drama, efficient drafting, highly respected players, the list goes and goes, i dont need to remind everyone of that. We could look down our noses at everyone and life was good on top, even through a down year.

The hope is gone. After the Montreal game Zberg, the last bastion of Red Wings elitism and power, said this current team has embarrassed everyone who's ever worn the winged wheel. Its true. Watching this team is like when you're running late for work and dont eat breakfast. The coffee tears youre empty stomach up all morning, but you remember you packed a delicious sandwhich for lunch. Fresh thin sliced rare roast beef. The fancy cheese you cant afford. The brioche roll. Hot damn you love to think about. Then lunch hour roles around and you find out your wife is having an affair. The snobby pride is gone, were getting screwed left n right. 

So now that that's said, naturally i wanna funnel all my frustations onto our goaltenders. Mrazek is finished here. He's sitting on a 3.62 GAA and .891 sv%. No goalie, even with bad D, survives these numbers. Its a repeat from last year and hes in a contract year. Im saying it now: Mrazek will be playing in Czech Republic next year. No team wanted him during the expansion. No team will want him next year. How long do we lie to ourselves like with Brendan Smith and say hes gonna turn it around? Hes less than Smith was at 25 already. Its over. How can anyone prefer him to Howard?

Flame on.

That's an oddly specific story. Still bitter about the divorce are we?

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1 hour ago, lomekian said:

Age matters because most goalies don;t hit their peak till their late 20s early 30s. Hell when Price was 24/25 there was talk that he was a bust.

 

But Ok  we'll play the game - 3 full years in:

Mrazek - Career average .912 (coming off a 9.01 season)

Ryan Miller had just averaged .906 and had a considerably worse career save % than Mrazek

Rinne averaged .915 having come off a .911 season

Rask - .925 coming off a .929 - smashed it!

Bobrovsky - .932! - previous 2 seasons averaged .906 ish (a brutal .898 in there)

Cory Schneider - an excellent .927 - followed by .880 in the playoffs

Hasek - a brilliant 9.30 after 2 sub .900 seasons

Kiprusoff - .923 - His best career season.

Lundqvist - .912 - .909 in the playoffs

Belfour - .894 (but scoring was much higher than).

So what we know is at the age of 25 and 9 months Mrazek had achieved similarly to Lundqvist and Rask and better than all the others at the same age.

Comparative after 3 years of NHL experience, Mrazek's recent numbers are worse than most listed, but career wise at the same point only really much behind Rask & Schnieder, and touch behind Bobrovsky.

Which entirely backs up my main point - he needs to get a run of games to see if he can rebound as some of those guys did at various points, or if he;s a busted flush as far as the wings are concerned.

Oddly enough, after his first 2 full seasons, he was better than any of the above bar Rask, and by the age of 24, many of the guys above hadn't even made an impact at NHL level.

We know what Jimmy is. A solid, slightly injury prone 2nd tier starter, who with good team defence can put up good numbers, but looks exposed when our team falls apart. If this team isn't going to make the playoffs (if - ha!), we need to see if our guy with a higher ceiling can have a future here. 

If the rest of this season doesn't improve for him, THEN its time to cut our losses. But playing the guy in our hardest road games and not picking him much after a very good shut out doesn't seem like the coach wants to help him succeed.

 

 

What are you talking about? By your stats it shows that he has similar numbers to what lunquist did, and higher than belfour. Everyone else is above him. Rask whom you mentioned as similar, had a significantly higher sv%

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17 minutes ago, kickazz said:

What about the 50 games he played last season? Do you think he was distributed games unfairly even then?

No. But how many goaltenders that aren't in or potentially in the all time great category can you think of that never had a bad season?

Nabakov had an .885

Turco had several below .900

Kipper had a few about .900

Khabibulin had a few below and around .900

Osgood had 3 cups and 4 complete seasons below .904

Miller had several between .900 and .910

So far Price is onto his third .905 season

Bobrovski had a .898 and .908 and he's elite

Dubnyk has lost his starters job twice with sub .900 seasons

John Quick has a .902 & a .907 since being the starter

Rinne has had 3 sub .910 seasons as starter including a .902

Fleury early had a .896 full season, a .905 season and a .906 (with the latter two being on stacked teams)

Tim Thomas had 3 sub .910 seasons in his 9 year NHL career where he won Vezinas and Harts

Hell even Patrick Roy & Brodeur had the odd bad season (worse than Mrazek to date)

This is are guys listed in either the top 10 of the last decade or the top 40 all time, and I left out the guys from the 60s, 70s & 80s for fairness vs a high scoring league.

Also bar Khabibulin and Dubnyk all those guys had much much better defencemen in front of them than Mrazek has had.

My point is that most goalies not in the super elite category (and even some that are), have had bad seasons until they hit their peaks. Maybe Mrazek has peaked? Maybe the last 18 months are the blip? We just don't know. 

All we are certain about is that he had a brilliant year and a half and a crappy year and a half. Surely it would be sensible, seeing as we aren't going to be competing for anything, to try to find out which one is who he is, once it fairly soon becomes clear we aren't a playoff team.,

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Euro_Twins said:

What are you talking about? By your stats it shows that he has similar numbers to what lunquist did, and higher than belfour. Everyone else is above him. Rask whom you mentioned as similar, had a significantly higher sv%

But its a result of a cherry picked third season. Of course if you compare a player's worst season of their career with excellent practitioners in their position they look bad. 

If the other bizarre cartoon avatar had asked about everyone's 2nd seasons rather than 3rd seasons, Mrazek would have been better than all of the listed bar Rask. By a distance. 

Also I was talking career sv % when I was making the favourable comparison, NOT single season. 

I mean, you could try reading what I actually wrote... :w00t:

 

 

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No I meant their overall performance cumulative of their first three seasons not their third season specifically. 

Either way if what you say is true then Mrazek should win the job back this year if given the opportunity. It’s his 4th season.

Edited by kickazz

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5 minutes ago, kickazz said:

No I meant their overall performance cumulative of their first three seasons not their third season specifically. 

Either way if what you say is true then Mrazek should win the job back this year if given the opportunity. It’s his 4th season.

Fair enough - apologies for misunderstanding you -  In which case Mrazek compares really well! 

I mean researching what I wrote I was genuinely surprised by how many excellent goaltenders he outperformed in his first 3 seasons, including his crappy last year. I guess normally inconsistent young goalies aren't on teams that don't score any goals, so their play isn't as damaging.

As you say, if Mrazek returns to his former level, the starter position is there for the taking. I'm just frustrated that Blash isn't using him either in the best way to rebuild his confidence, or indeed the best way to use any vaguely competent back up, and has seemingly flamed out Howard in the process.

What's the point of saying you'll let performances determine ice time and then reward Mrazek's shutout by following up him letting in 2 softies against a rampant Calgary (with an awful defensive effort) with a fortnight of splinters on the bench. 

But then since our winning run, Blashill's coaching has been in insane panic mode...

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3 hours ago, lomekian said:

Fair enough - apologies for misunderstanding you -  In which case Mrazek compares really well! 

I mean researching what I wrote I was genuinely surprised by how many excellent goaltenders he outperformed in his first 3 seasons, including his crappy last year. I guess normally inconsistent young goalies aren't on teams that don't score any goals, so their play isn't as damaging.

As you say, if Mrazek returns to his former level, the starter position is there for the taking. I'm just frustrated that Blash isn't using him either in the best way to rebuild his confidence, or indeed the best way to use any vaguely competent back up, and has seemingly flamed out Howard in the process.

What's the point of saying you'll let performances determine ice time and then reward Mrazek's shutout by following up him letting in 2 softies against a rampant Calgary (with an awful defensive effort) with a fortnight of splinters on the bench. 

But then since our winning run, Blashill's coaching has been in insane panic mode...

No problem. I appreciated your work in finding the numbers out. Thank you.

The problem for Mrazek is Howard is the starter for the season unlike last season where the roles were reversed. I'm afraid it may be too late for Mrazek seeing as how it's his contract year and they may not give him a 2nd chance unless Howard gets injured or does REALLY bad for a long time. 

Edited by kickazz

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Just now, kickazz said:

No problem. I appreciated your work in finding the numbers out. Thank you.

The problem for Mrazek is Howard is the started for the season unlike last season where the roles were reversed. I'm afraid it may be too late for Mrazek seeing as how it's his contract year and they may not give him a 2nd chance unless Howard gets injured or does REALLY bad for a long time. 

My fear too. I like Jimmy, but he's not going to be at his peak when this team is competitive, and if Mrazek can re-find his game, he will be. Also when Mrazek's head is right and his positioning is on, he is capable of amazing displays. I guess I fear that we could let him go for one more year of Jimmy, only for him to be in Vezina discussions elsewhere in 3-4 years.

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14 hours ago, kickazz said:

No problem. I appreciated your work in finding the numbers out. Thank you.

The problem for Mrazek is Howard is the starter for the season unlike last season where the roles were reversed. I'm afraid it may be too late for Mrazek seeing as how it's his contract year and they may not give him a 2nd chance unless Howard gets injured or does REALLY bad for a long time. 

“Starter for the season” means nothing on this team. Well, it shouldn’t on a team like this with the season going the way it is. Again, to me, the smart move in this disastrous season is to give Mrazek every chance to get something/anything going. There’s nothing to lose and potentially much to gain. This team is a dumpster fire with terrible defense that does neither of our goalies any favors, and Mrazek really is still young; a lot could still change. I don’t think it’s fair to assume he’s toast at this point, and I certainly don’t think it’s wise. 

14 hours ago, lomekian said:

My fear too. I like Jimmy, but he's not going to be at his peak when this team is competitive, and if Mrazek can re-find his game, he will be. Also when Mrazek's head is right and his positioning is on, he is capable of amazing displays. I guess I fear that we could let him go for one more year of Jimmy, only for him to be in Vezina discussions elsewhere in 3-4 years.

100% agree. 

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On 2017-12-05 at 5:37 PM, kickazz said:

What about the 50 games he played last season? Do you think he was distributed games unfairly even then?

One bad season does not make or break a goalie. That’s just ridiculous to even think that. His career numbers were top notch before last season. He’s improved some this year, but can’t work on fixing his issues fully and getting rolling and get back to where he once was by only playing now and then.

Too quick to give up on him. He had a bad season, big deal. Lots of goalies have them. People need to stop thinking one season has made the final decision and he won’t be resigned because of it. 

The talent he’s shown in some games this season like Washington and the Edmonton shutout shows that elite potential is still there. I’m betting if they have him a few games he’d get settled in and be just fine. He apparantly worked hard over the summer and the team was impressed with his improvement. Let him have at it.

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It’s also been mentioned by some in the media that Blash seems to be pretty biased when it comes to Howard, and it doesn’t look good the way he never puts a lick of blame on him for anything. Always jumping to his defence quickly after a bad game like a minor hockey dad would with his kid.

”Howard has worked hard to get his game back, gives us a chance every night, didn’t really have a chance on those goals, hung out to dry, I’m not worried about him, etc, etc.” Never any mention of how he needs to be better or anything. 

 

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46 minutes ago, chaps80 said:

It’s also been mentioned by some in the media that Blash seems to be pretty biased when it comes to Howard, and it doesn’t look good the way he never puts a lick of blame on him for anything. Always jumping to his defence quickly after a bad game like a minor hockey dad would with his kid.

”Howard has worked hard to get his game back, gives us a chance every night, didn’t really have a chance on those goals, hung out to dry, I’m not worried about him, etc, etc.” Never any mention of how he needs to be better or anything. 

 

Because believe it or not, Blashill might not be a good enough NHL coach, he's still a smart human being that understands his players' personalities well.

Howard would never react well to criticism like that. His personality doesn't fit that mold. Howard is the type of person you want to remind that you believe in him. The type of guy that himself comes out and says "I haven't been good".

People that are simple minded (the media people you're talking about ) don't get that concept.  

Edited by kickazz

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1 hour ago, kickazz said:

Because believe it or not, Blashill might not be a good enough NHL coach, he's still a smart human being that understands his players' personalities well.

Howard would never react well to criticism like that. His personality doesn't fit that mold. Howard is the type of person you want to remind that you believe in him. The type of guy that himself comes out and says "I haven't been good".

People that are simple minded (the media people you're talking about ) don't get that concept.  

Yes, I can see that. When Howard gets shaken, it never turns out good. 

It’s good that he can call himself out on it. Long as he doesn’t pull a Legace and say he wants to kill himself. 

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3 hours ago, chaps80 said:

Yes, I can see that. When Howard gets shaken, it never turns out good. 

It’s good that he can call himself out on it. Long as he doesn’t pull a Legace and say he wants to kill himself. 

And it's unlike Babcock because Babs called out both Osgood (in 09 season) and Howard in 2014 and that just pissed both Osgood and Howard off even more and didn't really improve their performance at the time. 

Edited by kickazz

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23 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I'll take Howard's "BAD" over Mrazek's "BAD" any day. I can't believe the voting is that close. Would rather keep one more year of Howard than qualify and re-sign Mrazek at a minimum of 3+mil for more years.

People who vote for Mrazek are voting what he represents, that being a young goaltender with potential to be elite.

The problem is Mrazek has shown nothing since his birthday in 2016 to indicate he will be good enough to be a starter let alone elite.

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1 hour ago, kliq said:

People who vote for Mrazek are voting what he represents, that being a young goaltender with potential to be elite.

The problem is Mrazek has shown nothing since his birthday in 2016 to indicate he will be good enough to be a starter let alone elite.

If I thought that was a possibility, I would agree with them because he's younger. Unfortunately, I can't see keeping him, getting rid of Howard, then paying Mrazek 4 mil annually to be the starter going forward. I don't have enough faith in him i guess. If he was an UFA and he was being brought in cheap to be a backup, I would be OK with it.

BTW, the only way Mrazek is getting traded is if some other team sees him as a potential starter. Because he is becoming a RFA, the CBA requires a minimum that he can be re-signed for and its over 3 mil. I don't see anyone paying him that to be a backup with his track record.

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Lol a couple years ago i was the only one standing in for howard against mrazek. If you called me crazy then, you had some ground to stand on. Thats gone now. Mrazek may not even be in the NHL next year lol and some of you srill think of taking him over Howard. I love it. This is why i routinely find myself trusting the franchise over the irrational pitchforks of the fans. Ill be here to i told ya so soon. One love.

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1 hour ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

If I thought that was a possibility, I would agree with them because he's younger. Unfortunately, I can't see keeping him, getting rid of Howard, then paying Mrazek 4 mil annually to be the starter going forward. I don't have enough faith in him i guess. If he was an UFA and he was being brought in cheap to be a backup, I would be OK with it.

BTW, the only way Mrazek is getting traded is if some other team sees him as a potential starter. Because he is becoming a RFA, the CBA requires a minimum that he can be re-signed for and its over 3 mil. I don't see anyone paying him that to be a backup with his track record.

Most likely scenario for Mrazek is that they simply let him walk. Unless he does a 180, he wont be worth 3mil to anyone. He will walk, and sign with a team on a cheap contract like you said.

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