Two Tendies Enter. One Tendy Lives.

[kickazz 5,459]

36 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Howard is far and ahead the better goalie. Mrazek is literally the worst goalie in the NHL lol.  This teams fans are more delusional than garth snow

People will think you're trolling because of your abrasive way of saying it like it is but you're actually right.

There is a standardized stat that you can judge goalies performance with called QS%. It stands for "Quality Start Percentage". It's basically the Quality Starts a goalie has divided by the number of games he's started.

Now what is "Quality Starts"? It's basically the number of games where a goalie has had a save % greater than the league average save % for the year OR at least greater than 88.5% when faced with 20 or fewer shots.

Sounds simple right? Just divide the number of games a goalie plays above league average by the number of games he's started and you get his Quality Start %. Pretty standardized way of judging. 

Long story short, the average Quality Start % in the league for goalies is 53%. Jimmy Howard's career quality start percent is 55.4% which puts him "above average" in the league (so yea Bill you were wrong with the Howard = Average thread years ago).

This year Howard's Quality Start percent is at a whooping 59.1%. So despite what people think with these 9 losses or whatever, Jeff Blashill is not wrong and the franchise is right to keep him as the starter. Howard is WELL above league average this year for the # of games he's played. 

Mrazek's career Quality Start % is 53% which is exactly at the league average. So remember, Howard is 55.4% and Mrazek is 53% for career. Which means while Howard is an above average goalie, Mrazek is at average. 

Here's where it gets embarassing for Mrazek.

Just for this year, Mrazek's Quality Start % is 14.3%.

Freaking 14.3% bro. That's 40% below average. That is absolute TRASH. He's literally the worst goalie in the league right now. 

Now of course if you compare Howards first 15 games to the last 8 games it's not going to look pretty. But overall he's still hovering at a good level especially after this game with the Panthers (even though it was a loss, he played well). 

Now people might wonder why is QS% even the measurement used right now? Well QS only looks at the games a goalie has started and removes the bias from the games they get put in to relieve a goalie. So it's only looking at the games Howard and Mrazek started and doesn't count the ones where their sv% or gaa was ruined because they came in as a relief.

 

Edited December 12, 2017 by kickazz

[Euro_Twins 4,476]

6 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Lol a couple years ago i was the only one standing in for howard against mrazek. If you called me crazy then, you had some ground to stand on. Thats gone now. Mrazek may not even be in the NHL next year lol and some of you srill think of taking him over Howard. I love it. This is why i routinely find myself trusting the franchise over the irrational pitchforks of the fans. Ill be here to i told ya so soon. One love.

I've always been on the Howie train too. Don't forget me 

[lomekian 201]

10 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Howard is far and ahead the better goalie. Mrazek is literally the worst goalie in the NHL lol.  This teams fans are more delusional than garth snow

And you literally used the word literally contrary to its actual meaning. 10 points!

At present, Howard is the marginally better and certainly more consistent goalie. But Mrazek must be wondering why he can't get a start against shot shy Florida after Howard playing like a sieve for the last fortnight. Howie was excellent for about 12-15 games, and in the games since then he;s been worse than Mrazek. 

At present,Mrazek remains more likely to steal you a game against all odds, but also more likely to lose you one by letting in goals he shouldn't. Howard routinely has stretches where he plays very well, but when those stretches end, he often is pretty weak for a few in a row. Mrazek is more likely to be brilliant one game and poor the next, but also seems to find it really hard to perform without a run of games or if overplayed like he was a couple of years ago.

What is interesting is when Mrazek first came into the team, his numbers were boosted by the team playing better and more supportive D in front of him than Howard. For the last year (the latter half of Mrazek's struggles) its been the opposite.

That said, this team's d is going to expose most goalies. 

If we're riding Howard while the playoffs is still possible, I can see the logic in that (though not to this extent given his physical vulnerability), but once that gives up the ghost, we'd better give Mrazek more games.

To not give him a run to see if he can re-find his former level, particularly once the season is gone, would be really quite stupid, given how long this organisation perseveres with skaters who have never excelled. 

[lomekian 201]

10 hours ago, kickazz said:

People will think you're trolling because of your abrasive way of saying it like it is but you're actually right.

There is a standardized stat that you can judge goalies performance with called QS%. It stands for "Quality Start Percentage". It's basically the Quality Starts a goalie has divided by the number of games he's started.

Now what is "Quality Starts"? It's basically the number of games where a goalie has had a save % greater than the league average save % for the year OR at least greater than 88.5% when faced with 20 or fewer shots.

Sounds simple right? Just divide the number of games a goalie plays above league average by the number of games he's started and you get his Quality Start %. Pretty standardized way of judging. 

Long story short, the average Quality Start % in the league for goalies is 53%. Jimmy Howard's career quality start percent is 55.4% which puts him "above average" in the league (so yea Bill you were wrong with the Howard = Average thread years ago).

This year Howard's Quality Start percent is at a whooping 59.1%. So despite what people think with these 9 losses or whatever, Jeff Blashill is not wrong and the franchise is right to keep him as the starter. Howard is WELL above league average this year for the # of games he's played. 

Mrazek's career Quality Start % is 53% which is exactly at the league average. So remember, Howard is 55.4% and Mrazek is 53% for career. Which means while Howard is an above average goalie, Mrazek is at average. 

Here's where it gets embarassing for Mrazek.

Just for this year, Mrazek's Quality Start % is 14.3%.

Freaking 14.3% bro. That's 40% below average. That is absolute TRASH. He's literally the worst goalie in the league right now. 

Now of course if you compare Howards first 15 games to the last 8 games it's not going to look pretty. But overall he's still hovering at a good level especially after this game with the Panthers (even though it was a loss, he played well). 

Now people might wonder why is QS% even the measurement used right now? Well QS only looks at the games a goalie has started and removes the bias from the games they get put in to relieve a goalie. So it's only looking at the games Howard and Mrazek started and doesn't count the ones where their sv% or gaa was ruined because they came in as a relief.

 

Thanks for explaining that. Its a good stat, and isn't pretty for Mrazek, who somehow features lower than Niemi despite having a considerably better save %. So basically Mrazek's been excellent in one start, good-average in another couple and pretty poor in 3. Howard's been Brilliant in about 1/3rd, just above or below average in another 3rd and rubbish in the rest.

Mrazek, luckily for him still has others below him on the list, so he's not literally the worst....

The problem with QS% is that it, like other advanced style stats only tells half of the story.

At present the best goalies in the league by that measure are Oscar Dansk, Ryan Miller, Reto Berra, David Rittich, Carter Hutton, Fleury, and Charlie Lindgren.

It also puts Jimmy Howard as considerably above Lundqvist, Rask, Jake Allen, Dubnyk and a few others with more wins, better save %s etc.

It is partly useful, but as a measure of consistently being above average than anything else, but totally fails to factor in meltdown games or weak goals.It also fails to take into account the quality of the opposition or quality of the team.

Both our goalies would much higher up the QS% list if they had STL's blue line in front of them (and a competent team coach).

It is not without merit though, for sure.

 

[chaps80 1,591]

27 minutes ago, lomekian said:

And you literally used the word literally contrary to its actual meaning. 10 points!

At present, Howard is the marginally better and certainly more consistent goalie. But Mrazek must be wondering why he can't get a start against shot shy Florida after Howard playing like a sieve for the last fortnight. Howie was excellent for about 12-15 games, and in the games since then he;s been worse than Mrazek. 

At present,Mrazek remains more likely to steal you a game against all odds, but also more likely to lose you one by letting in goals he shouldn't. Howard routinely has stretches where he plays very well, but when those stretches end, he often is pretty weak for a few in a row. Mrazek is more likely to be brilliant one game and poor the next, but also seems to find it really hard to perform without a run of games or if overplayed like he was a couple of years ago.

What is interesting is when Mrazek first came into the team, his numbers were boosted by the team playing better and more supportive D in front of him than Howard. For the last year (the latter half of Mrazek's struggles) its been the opposite.

That said, this team's d is going to expose most goalies. 

If we're riding Howard while the playoffs is still possible, I can see the logic in that (though not to this extent given his physical vulnerability), but once that gives up the ghost, we'd better give Mrazek more games.

To not give him a run to see if he can re-find his former level, particularly once the season is gone, would be really quite stupid, given how long this organisation perseveres with skaters who have never excelled. 

Yeah, I laughed when I saw Howard was starting last night after the game he had saturday. If your not gonna give Mrazek a start after that, may as well waive him. No wonder he had “attitude issues”. I would too.

And I say waive, because why not? He’s obviously useless to this franchise the way he’s handled. If he gets picked up for nothing, all the better. Right? If he doesn’t, then he gets another “message”. Nothing like breaking a young goalie down while fluffing the ego of your veteran. Then if he gets picked up, the Howard/Coreau show can begin. If Howard gets hurt, Jared can lay prone on the ice while players shoot pucks over him again.  

Edited December 12, 2017 by chaps80

[kickazz 5,459]

26 minutes ago, chaps80 said:

Yeah, I laughed when I saw Howard was starting last night after the game he had saturday. If your not gonna give Mrazek a start after that, may as well waive him. No wonder he had “attitude issues”. I would too.

 

You laughed? You should be embarassed because Blashill started Howard again and proved you wrong with his solid performance last night. 93.1 sv%. What did you call him? Jittery Jimmy? Lol. Didn’t see many Jitters last night.

And Mrazek started having attitude issues years ago. And that’s exactly why the franchise put him in his place this year to remind him of humility. Have you heard a peep put of Mrazek? I haven’t. Last interview he said how he’s going to work hard and stay focused. He even said that he wants to be a 1-2 punch with Howard. Sounds like the respnse of a boy finally growing up after a nice spanking from dad. 

The spanking of course was Las Vegas passing up on him. Brought Mrazek’s attitude back down to earth.

 

 

Edited December 12, 2017 by kickazz

[chaps80 1,591]

8 minutes ago, kickazz said:

You laughed? You should be embarassed because Blashill started Howard again and proved you wrong with his solid performance last night. 93.1 sv%. What did you call him? Jittery Jimmy? Lol. Didn’t see many Jitters last night.

And Mrazek started having attitude issues years ago. And that’s exactly why the franchise put him in his place this year to remind him of humility. Have you heard a peep put of Mrazek? I haven’t. Last interview he said how he’s going to work hard and stay focused. He even said that he wants to be a 1-2 punch with Howard. Sounds like the respnse of a boy finally growing up after a nice spanking from dad. 

The spanking of course was Las Vegas passing up on him. Brought Mrazek’s attitude back down to earth.

 

 

It’s OK, Jittery Jimmy will show up again. We all know it. And it has nothing to do with proving anyone wrong. It only shows by how much of a margin Blash favours Howard. Constant pats on the head,no matter the performance. It’s hilarious. I compared it to a minor hockey dad and his son before.

And yes, he’s been quiet, but he can’t be too happy. Probably hoping he gets moved somehow to somewhere where he gets starts.

 

[chaps80 1,591]

And out of all the players they had to choose they chose Nosek. A few Vegas picks were questionable.

[kickazz 5,459]

13 minutes ago, chaps80 said:

It’s OK, Jittery Jimmy will show up again. We all know it. And it has nothing to do with proving anyone wrong. It only shows by how much of a margin Blash favours Howard. Constant pats on the head,no matter the performance. It’s hilarious. I compared it to a minor hockey dad and his son before.

And yes, he’s been quiet, but he can’t be too happy. Probably hoping he gets moved somehow to somewhere where he gets starts.

 

He's probably hoping he has a job in the NHL and gets his act together. And if he were reading this convo he's be happy he has a cheerleader in you (of the like 3 that are left) but he knows he has a long way to go performance wise.

 

Edited December 12, 2017 by kickazz

[chaps80 1,591]

5 minutes ago, kickazz said:

He's probably hoping he has a job in the NHL and gets his act together. And if he were reading this convo he's be happy he has a cheerleading in you (of the like 3 that are left) but he knows he has a long way to go performance wise.

3 left? This poll is pretty close. 14 to 13 for Howard. I guess many are thinking of the future, not the present. Good mindset to be in when your team sucks and you need a rebuild stat. 

Like it or not, Howard is getting older, and has had injury and mental breakdown problems for a few seasons now. Even if he was moved and Mrazek still didn’t step up, there’s younger goalies kicking around the league who could step right in and do his job for cheaper. It wouldn’t screw the team or anything. He’s not some irreplaceable piece that needs to be kept around until he retires. He’s Jimmy Howard, not Martin Brodeur. Some here seem to think he’s the Wings equivalent of that though. The guy was on the trade block one season ago and they couldn’t give him away. Would there even be any takers today at the cap hit?

[kickazz 5,459]

1 minute ago, chaps80 said:

3 left? This poll is pretty close. 14 to 13 for Howard. I guess many are thinking of the future, not the present. Good mindset to be in when your team sucks and you need a rebuild stat. 

Like it or not, Howard is getting older, and has had injury and mental breakdown problems for a few seasons now. Even if he was moved and Mrazek still didn’t step up, there’s younger goalies kicking around the league who could step right in and do his job for cheaper. It wouldn’t screw the team or anything. He’s not some irreplaceable piece that needs to be kept around until he retires. He’s Jimmy Howard, not Martin Brodeur. Some here seem to think he’s the Wings equivalent of that though. The guy was on the trade block one season ago and they couldn’t give him away. Would there even be any takers today at the cap hit?

The 13 that voted are probably being rational about their choice and considering the future sure. But you ACTUALLY think Mrazek is better than Howard when he isn't. You're being irrational. You keep talking about Jittery Jimmy, mental breakdowns blah blah blah but last I checked Howard was strong in net last night. You're HOPING Jimmy blows it but in reality he's been just fine overall. 

You talk about Jimmy not being tradeable but Mrazek was exposed in an expansion draft and wasn't even taken for free. 

And Jimmy isn't that old. He's 33. Do you know the age Osgood when he won his last cup? In fact Howard is actually performing better at his older age than he did 3 years ago. Your age argument is flat out weak. 

[chaps80 1,591]

5 hours ago, kickazz said:

The 13 that voted are probably being rational about their choice and considering the future sure. But you ACTUALLY think Mrazek is better than Howard when he isn't. You're being irrational. You keep talking about Jittery Jimmy, mental breakdowns blah blah blah but last I checked Howard was strong in net last night. You're HOPING Jimmy blows it but in reality he's been just fine overall. 

You talk about Jimmy not being tradeable but Mrazek was exposed in an expansion draft and wasn't even taken for free. 

And Jimmy isn't that old. He's 33. Do you know the age Osgood when he won his last cup? In fact Howard is actually performing better at his older age than he did 3 years ago. Your age argument is flat out weak. 

I’m not hoping Jimmy blows it. I have given credit where it was due so far this season, but he’s been trending downwards. 

Jimmy being unwanted in a trade (which at the time probably would have been a formality for whatever little Holland could get), and Mrazek not being taken in the expansion are different things. Maybe Vegas wanted Nosek? Maybe there was an agreement with McPhee to take Nosek after Holland originally was going to protect him, but wanted to expose Mrazek for the “wake up call”. None of us know the behind the scenes chats. Howard would have went unclaimed as well, so it is what it is.

Howard is 33 yes. Not finished by any means, but It’s not unheard of for rebuilding teams to move on from their oldest goalie and roll with youth. Mrazek and Coreau are 8 and 7 years younger. How many years does Howard have left? How many times will he be injured? How many times will he flake out? Is it worth losing one of your two best younger options to keep him around past next season? All good questions.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

20 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Lol a couple years ago i was the only one standing in for howard against mrazek. If you called me crazy then, you had some ground to stand on. Thats gone now. Mrazek may not even be in the NHL next year lol and some of you srill think of taking him over Howard. I love it. This is why i routinely find myself trusting the franchise over the irrational pitchforks of the fans. Ill be here to i told ya so soon. One love.

I was once one of those fans. I fell victim to the Mrazek Hype Machine. I never turned on Howard tho, at least. That said, I'm not so delusional that I can't see the proverbial writing on the wall for Mrazek. Nor am I so stubborn that I can't have my opinion changed. I am now convinced that Howard is the better of the 2.

If we're talking about the future, then the answer is "none of the above". Neither of them are long term options for this team.

If we're talking about the "now", the answer is Howard. He has better numbers and stats in every category but age. Mrazek may be around longer than Howard because he's younger, but he'll still never be a regular starter in the NHL, IMO. Howard is that now, Mrazek is not. So I chose Howard.

[krsmith17 7,191]

10 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I was once one of those fans. I fell victim to the Mrazek Hype Machine. I never turned on Howard tho, at least. That said, I'm not so delusional that I can't see the proverbial writing on the wall for Mrazek. Nor am I so stubborn that I can't have my opinion changed. I am now convinced that Howard is the better of the 2.

If we're talking about the future, then the answer is "none of the above". Neither of them are long term options for this team.

If we're talking about the "now", the answer is Howard. He has better numbers and stats in every category but age. Mrazek may be around longer than Howard because he's younger, but he'll still never be a regular starter in the NHL, IMO. Howard is that now, Mrazek is not. So I chose Howard.

I'm with you on the bolded. I've been a Mrazek supporter, but never really bashed Howard, and certainly never hoped he'd fail. I've always hoped both would play at a high level. As a fan, why wouldn't you? I've never understood why some people hope certain players on the team they cheer for to fail.

As for the "neither being long term options" and "Mrazek never being a regular starter", I'll agree that it may appear that way right now, but that can still change. I still have hope that Mrazek can turn it around. It is beginning to look a little bleak, but if he can manage to get in some consecutive games, and get back to a split, or maybe even steal back the starter, if he could get that confidence and swagger back, I think he could be a legitimate starter in this league. I don't think he'll ever be elite, like some of us once thought, but I still think he has it in him to be a very good goaltender. We'll see.

[lomekian 201]

I have always been rather pro both goalies. Jimmy is a genuine starting goaltender who goes through bad patches and a bit injury prone. Mrazek is a young pretender who has shown patches of brilliance and patches of not being up to snuff. At present Jimmy is the more reliable guy, and (until the last fortnight) less likely to lose you a game. I still vote Mrazek simply because he's shown more by now than Jimmy had at the same age, and when he's in the zone he's better than JImmy, though we've only seen it occasionally over the last year.

Were the team in danger of a playoff run, I'd go with Jimmy. But the team is going nowhere with a mediocre roster and a worse than mediocre coach, and the accidental tank is in full effect. So what's the point on marginalising the young guy who still has time to turn things back around simply to overplay a guy who isn't going to get any better and isn't likely to be around as a starter by the time we are competitive again, particularly when the last few years his body hasn't held up to being overplayed.

If we are going to have a goalie deathmatch, at least give them an equal chance.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

11 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

I'm with you on the bolded. I've been a Mrazek supporter, but never really bashed Howard, and certainly never hoped he'd fail. I've always hoped both would play at a high level. As a fan, why wouldn't you? I've never understood why some people hope certain players on the team they cheer for to fail.

As for the "neither being long term options" and "Mrazek never being a regular starter", I'll agree that it may appear that way right now, but that can still change. I still have hope that Mrazek can turn it around. It is beginning to look a little bleak, but if he can manage to get in some consecutive games, and get back to a split, or maybe even steal back the starter, if he could get that confidence and swagger back, I think he could be a legitimate starter in this league. I don't think he'll ever be elite, like some of us once thought, but I still think he has it in him to be a very good goaltender. We'll see.

Perhaps I was too harsh. I shouldn't have said "delusional", as those who support/still believe in Mrazek are not. Just a difference in opinion. Poor choice of words there.

That said, I don't dislike Mrazek. I actually WANT to be wrong about him. I just don't think it will happen in a Winged Wheel jersey, if at all. 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

lmao all you jumping in for the 3.72 GAA 0.88% Mrazek, are you gonna be mad when I post these quotes in a month? 6 months? a year?  To make you look foolish? Cause I'm gonna, and I'm betting none of yall will eat your own crow.

Lemme kno, urs truly,

9

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

On 12/11/2017 at 9:44 PM, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Lol a couple years ago i was the only one standing in for howard against mrazek. If you called me crazy then, you had some ground to stand on. Thats gone now. Mrazek may not even be in the NHL next year lol and some of you srill think of taking him over Howard. I love it. This is why i routinely find myself trusting the franchise over the irrational pitchforks of the fans. Ill be here to i told ya so soon. One love.

 

On 12/18/2017 at 10:17 PM, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

lmao all you jumping in for the 3.72 GAA 0.88% Mrazek, are you gonna be mad when I post these quotes in a month? 6 months? a year?  To make you look foolish? Cause I'm gonna, and I'm betting none of yall will eat your own crow.

Lemme kno, urs truly,

9

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

7 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

 

Looks tasty.