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Jonas Mahonas

Ovechkin to 1,000 Goals?

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If he gets 50 this year, that puts him at 608 as a 32 year old.  He seems to be strong as an ox and rarely misses any games.  Can he average 30 goals per over 13 more seasons and retire at age 46 with 1,000 goals?  At what point does everyone think he will be within range of the mark?  It would not surprise me if he has 760 by age 37 and stretches out 8 more seasons at 30 per year to do it.

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I think he'll break Gretzky's record if he wants to (so 895 goals not 1000). Just depends how bad he wants it. If I was him I'd play as long as possible to break it. He's healthy, rarely gets injured, he's too strong of a player to get hurt by body checks, hits etc. 

He could decided to play till 45 to break it and he probably would. Or he could just say f*** it and go back to Russia and not break it. 

I think it all depends on him and what he wants to do. 

Edited by kickazz

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If Ovie plays till 45 and continues to stay relatively healthy, I'm willing to bet my left arm and leg that he beats Gretzky's record. 

Maybe not if he retires around 38 or whatever the standard retirement age is. 

Edited by kickazz

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I don't see 1000 either. 

I see 895 by age 45 though. 105 goals is a huge difference.

I don't see 895 by age 38-40 though. 

At the very least I see him breaking Howe's record. I wouldn't be saying this if I didn't watch the guy play and see how healthy he is. He's a tank. 

Of course you never know what could happen injury wise the next decade. 

The thread title should have been about him either breaking Howe or Gretzky's records.

Edited by kickazz

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9 minutes ago, kickazz said:

I don't see 1000 either. 

I see 895 by age 45 though. 105 goals is a huge difference.

I don't see 895 by age 38-40 though. 

At the very least I see him breaking Howe's record. I wouldn't be saying this if I didn't watch the guy play and see how healthy he is. He's a tank. 

Of course you never know what could happen injury wise the next decade. 

The thread title should have been about him either breaking Howe or Gretzky's records.

I'm almost positive that he already made that thread. Can't find it.

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Alright so here my projections. This based on him at least playing 70+ games a year. With no major time off. Each year goal total is "around about". Also hoping for no lockouts of any kind. Theses are very loses projections, please don't murder me over them. This is just my opinion.

2017-2018, Age 32, 50 goals

2018-2019, Age 33, 45 goals

2019-2020, Age 34, 40 goals

2020-2021, Age 35, 50 goals * contract year / one last go at 50 goals *

2021-2022, Age 36, 40 goals

2022-2023, Age 37, 35 goals

2022-2024, Age 38, 33 goals

2022-2025, Age 39, 30 goals

2022-2026, Age 40, 30 goals

2022-2027, Age 41, 28 goals

2022-2028, Age 42, 25 goals

Total 373 goals

I can only see Ovie playing to 45 if he has yet to win a cup. I got him hanging up his skates at the same age as Teemu Selanne did. 

So right now Ovie got 578 goals + 373 = 951

In our in perfect world, I think he finishes around 888 goals. Pun intended indeed.

If not for the locks, I do think he would of a much higher chance at 1000 goals. I hope people consider that in the future for Ovie.

Edited by xault

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I'd say zero chance he hits 1000, and 5% chance he hits 895, to break Gretzky's record. Although likely, I don't even think it's guaranteed he'll break Jagr's record at 766. I could see Ovechkin playing until he's 40+, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he jettisoned back to Russia if his game drops off at all before then... Still one of, if not the best pure goal scorer of all time.

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1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

I'd say zero chance he hits 1000, and 5% chance he hits 895, to break Gretzky's record. Although likely, I don't even think it's guaranteed he'll break Jagr's record at 766. I could see Ovechkin playing until he's 40+, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he jettisoned back to Russia if his game drops off at all before then... Still one of, if not the best pure goal scorer of all time.

5% chance he scores 300 goals over 10 years?  Thats insane.  I would bet a lot of money if I could get 20-1 odds on Ovechkin passing 895.  My veey diverse and robust investment portfolio would hardly be altered by my very large bet, so why not.

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11 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

5% chance he scores 300 goals over 10 years?  Thats insane.  I would bet a lot of money if I could get 20-1 odds on Ovechkin passing 895.  My veey diverse and robust investment portfolio would hardly be altered by my very large bet, so why not.

IF he plays another 10 years, yeah he'd likely break the record, but that's assuming he plays until he's 42, and I wouldn't bet on that. What if he retires in 6 years when he's 38? That would mean he would have to average over 50 goals in each of those 6 years. Sure, he could, but again, I wouldn't bet on it. I think it's highly unlikely that Ovechkin hangs them up after this current contract that runs through the 2020-21 season, but you never know... There's also the risk of injury...

Go ahead and place a bet, but I wouldn't bet on any player scoring over 300 goals at the tail end of their career, no matter how elite they are / were... Way too many uncontrollable variables for my liking...

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58 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

5% chance he scores 300 goals over 10 years?  Thats insane.  I would bet a lot of money if I could get 20-1 odds on Ovechkin passing 895.  My veey diverse and robust investment portfolio would hardly be altered by my very large bet, so why not.

I wouldn't disagree with those odds.  I have 0% at getting 1,000, getting 300 goals over next 10 years is not likely in mind mind for a few reasons.  1) it assumes he'll be scoring 30 goals a year into his 40s....highly unlikely on its own, but perhaps some offset by scoring more than that in the next few, 2) Will he play for 10 more years?  Again, not likely, if he does it would be longer than most, 3) if he plays that long, will he stay healthy....again, unlikely, injuries typically happen as players get older.

Some perspective.  Someone brought up Jagr......taking a player and projecting stats if they played as long as Jagr is silly to begin with as obviously Jagr is not the norm...but since the age of 32, he has scored 319 goals.....90 of which were outside of NHL.

Looking at Gretzky, he had 765 goals at the age of 32 and he finished at 894....however, he retired at 38 I think and got hurt around the age of 30 I believe and hampered him the rest of his career.  But even considering that, 765 is way more than where Ovechkin is.

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2 minutes ago, toby91_ca said:

I wouldn't disagree with those odds.  I have 0% at getting 1,000, getting 300 goals over next 10 years is not likely in mind mind for a few reasons.  1) it assumes he'll be scoring 30 goals a year into his 40s....highly unlikely on its own, but perhaps some offset by scoring more than that in the next few, 2) Will he play for 10 more years?  Again, not likely, if he does it would be longer than most, 3) if he plays that long, will he stay healthy....again, unlikely, injuries typically happen as players get older.

Some perspective.  Someone brought up Jagr......taking a player and projecting stats if they played as long as Jagr is silly to begin with as obviously Jagr is not the norm...but since the age of 32, he has scored 319 goals.....90 of which were outside of NHL.

Looking at Gretzky, he had 765 goals at the age of 32 and he finished at 894....however, he retired at 38 I think and got hurt around the age of 30 I believe and hampered him the rest of his career.  But even considering that, 765 is way more than where Ovechkin is.

Ovechkin 6'3", 240 lbs.  Gretzky 5'11", 165 lbs.

 

That comparison is void.

 

Ovi to Jagr is a good comparison.  Similar builds, similar track records health wise.

 

Jagr at about 900 goals since 32 adjusted.

 

I know Ovi will pass Gretzky.  He could do that before age 40 if he has 7 years after this one of 40 per.  

 

And I think he will be the league's first 1000 goal scorer.

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47 minutes ago, kickazz said:

@krsmith17 the OP is laying out the premise that he plays for another 13 years and is healthy. 

Ok... Well I guess IF he plays another 13 years (highly unlikely), and IF he remains healthy for those 13 years (even less likely), sure, I guess he could break Gretzky's record, maybe even break the 1000 point total... But again, I'd say it's pretty close to zero chance that happens, so what's the point? Why don't we also add the stipulation that if he plays another 13 years and is healthy, and averages 40 points over those 13 years, will he reach 1000 points? Of course he would...

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8 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Ok... Well I guess IF he plays another 13 years (highly unlikely), and IF he remains healthy for those 13 years (even less likely), sure, I guess he could break Gretzky's record, maybe even break the 1000 point total... But again, I'd say it's pretty close to zero chance that happens, so what's the point? Why don't we also add the stipulation that if he plays another 13 years and is healthy, and averages 40 points over those 13 years, will he reach 1000 points? Of course he would...

You’re missing the point. By controlling the health and years played variables, Jonas is basically asking if Ovie can sustain a goals per game average to reach the mark. 

Edited by kickazz

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Just now, kickazz said:

He needs to average 25 goals per year for the next 13 seasons.

Jagr averaged around 20 goals a year from age 40-45

He plays his first 13 seasons at .6 GPG (600 in 1000 games).

 

Can he play his next 13 seasons at .3 GPG?

 

20-1 odds is a joke.  I bet Vegas would have that bet at 2-1 best case.

 

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/18157966/nhl-alex-ovechkin-track-break-wayne-gretzky-career-goals-record-894

 

Good read.

1 minute ago, kickazz said:

You’re missing the point. By controlling the health and years played variables, Jonas is basically asking if Ovie can sustain a goals per game average to reach the mark. 

Exactly.  And why not?  He has a track record that would indicate he's going to continue staying healthy and playing.  He has never been injured seriously and has never even spoken of retirement.  

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9 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

He plays his first 13 seasons at .6 GPG (600 in 1000 games).

 

Can he play his next 13 seasons at .3 GPG?

 

20-1 odds is a joke.  I bet Vegas would have that bet at 2-1 best case.

 

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/18157966/nhl-alex-ovechkin-track-break-wayne-gretzky-career-goals-record-894

 

Good read.

Exactly.  And why not?  He has a track record that would indicate he's going to continue staying healthy and playing.  He has never been injured seriously and has never even spoken of retirement.  

If you want to place a bet with me, I'll take your money and give you 20-1 odds if you want.

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7 minutes ago, kickazz said:

You’re missing the point. By controlling the health and years played variables, Jonas is basically asking if Ovie can sustain a goals per game average to reach the mark. 

Sure, why not... But why stop there? If Ovechkin plays for another 18 years and stays healthy until he's 50, does he hit 1200 goals? 

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1 minute ago, krsmith17 said:

Sure, why not... But why stop there? If Ovechkin plays for another 18 years and stays healthy until he's 50, does he hit 1200 goals? 

Troll post.

Ignored.

2 minutes ago, toby91_ca said:

If you want to place a bet with me, I'll take your money and give you 20-1 odds if you want.

For Gretzky’s record or 1000 goals?

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If he wants to beat Gretzky, he can, and he very likely will. 1000 though? A lot would have to go right. It’s insane that it’s even somewhat of a reasonable thought though in this era. Says a great deal about just how phenomenally great of a goal scorer Ovechkin is.

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