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Jonas Mahonas

Ovechkin to 1,000 Goals?

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1 hour ago, Scott R Lucidi said:

You can also put 2 of 3 them in the top 5 all time goals container.  Chelios and Robinson are multiple Norris winners,, to boot.

Thats the point tho. You have to play many years past 40 to reach that many goals. And forwards are even less likely to last that long.

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8 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Less than 3/4 of the way there. Already 36 yo. Not gonna happen.

He will hit 800 next year.

40g to 770 age 36

35g to 805 age 37

35g to 840 age 38

30g to 870 age 39

30g to 900 age 40

25g to 925 age 41

25g to 950 age 42

20g to 970 age 43

20g to 990 age 44

11 g to 1001 age 45

Retire.

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all he needs is three more 50 goal seasons and a 20 goal season to retire with 900. I don´t see the 1000 but Gretzky´s record can be broken before he´s 40. He is still one of the best scorers in the league and doesn´t look like he´s slowing down

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7 minutes ago, ely s said:

all he needs is three more 50 goal seasons and a 20 goal season to retire with 900. I don´t see the 1000 but Gretzky´s record can be broken before he´s 40. He is still one of the best scorers in the league and doesn´t look like he´s slowing down

This scenario is entirely plausible. Had it not been for lockouts, and 2 shortened CoVid seasons. He could have come close to 1000. 900 seems much more realistic.

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1 hour ago, BarkBurgerman said:

The thing you have to remember about Ovi is that he's only missed around 45 games due to injury over a 16 year career. Less than 3 games a season. He's incredibly durable despite his aggressive play style. And his play has barely diminished over the years. If there's anyone who's a candidate to play until he's 45 or even 50, it's Ovi bar none.

If you plot out Ovi's goal pace on a graph and add a trend line, then extend that trend line into the future here's what you get:

EusqIHm.png

Assuming he plays full seasons per usual and this trend continues, you're looking at him adding roughly 230 goals to his stats over the next 5 years. Putting him at roughly 820 goals when he either retires or starts his 41 year old campaign (only about 60 goals away from Wayne). If the trend continues past that he'll eclipse 1,000 by the time he's 44.

I think it's a given he'll pass Wayne and 900 at this point. If he wants to.

Regardless, he's easily the best goal scorer of all time IMO.

He started the season with 730.  Adding 230 = 960!  The only thing that can stop Ovi from getting 1,000 is him not wanting to get to 1,000.  I highly doubt that he hangs his skates up before scoring 1,000 however.

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1 hour ago, BarkBurgerman said:

The thing you have to remember about Ovi is that he's only missed around 45 games due to injury over a 16 year career. Less than 3 games a season. He's incredibly durable despite his aggressive play style. And his play has barely diminished over the years. If there's anyone who's a candidate to play until he's 45 or even 50, it's Ovi bar none.

If you plot out Ovi's goal pace on a graph and add a trend line, then extend that trend line into the future here's what you get:

EusqIHm.png

Assuming he plays full seasons per usual and this trend continues, you're looking at him adding roughly 230 goals to his stats over the next 5 years. Putting him at roughly 820 goals when he either retires or starts his 41 year old campaign (only about 60 goals away from Wayne). If the trend continues past that he'll eclipse 1,000 by the time he's 44.

I think it's a given he'll pass Wayne and 900 at this point. If he wants to.

Regardless, he's easily the best goal scorer of all time IMO.

I don't care how tough and healthy he's been. He is still a human being and beholden to the same declines with age as anyone else. Moreso, considering he plays a rather physical sport. Playing until 45 is one thing. Playing at a high enough level to accomplish something no one else has? Doubtful.

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1 hour ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I don't care how tough and healthy he's been. He is still a human being and beholden to the same declines with age as anyone else. Moreso, considering he plays a rather physical sport. Playing until 45 is one thing. Playing at a high enough level to accomplish something no one else has? Doubtful.

This is the same argument as "I dont care what facts you have, my opinion still overrules your facts."  You do realize this, right?

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5 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

This is the same argument as "I dont care what facts you have, my opinion still overrules your facts."  You do realize this, right?

So declining skills with age is not fact? Cuz if that's an opinion, then I've been right every time.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

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53 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

So declining skills with age is not fact? Cuz if that's an opinion, then I've been right every time.

thats not the part we are disagreeing with you about.  your "the same as everybody else" comment is the problem.  Alex Ovechkin is not the same as everybody else.  This is a widely known fact.  He's a unique player with his fitness, durability, and skillset.  

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Ovie is a beast and nothing is impossible. One problem tho; are the Caps gonna be able to keep the team good enough through the coming years for him to pull this off?

Edited by Akakabuto

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12 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

thats not the part we are disagreeing with you about.  your "the same as everybody else" comment is the problem.  Alex Ovechkin is not the same as everybody else.  This is a widely known fact.  He's a unique player with his fitness, durability, and skillset.  

So was Gretzky. 

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4 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Done.  You have been defeated.

Gretzky scored on another level, did he not? He piled up goals at a much higher clip than Ovechkin. He didn't have the build of Ovechkin, but he didn't need to. At the pace he was scoring, he could have scored 1000 by 40. But he didn't. If the argument is that Ovechkin has to average 30 goals for the next 9 years in order to achieve 1000 goals, then he probably won't.

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On 10/15/2021 at 10:08 PM, BarkBurgerman said:

Not at all. Grets scored 9 goals in 70 games in his final season.

Gretzky's goal scoring took a complete nose dive when he turned 33. He only scored 82 goals across his last 6 seasons, a 19 goals a season pace across that time. He would've needed to play until he was 44 to achieve 1,000 at that pace.

Ovi on the other hand is 36, and in his last 3 seasons (half the amount of time) he's amassed 123 goals. Averaging a 52 goals a season pace over that time. Even if Ovi's pace drops drastically to 35 a season, he'll pass Grets and breach 900 by age 40. Even If he drops to 40 he'll achieve 1,000 by age 42. The guy is in the ******* red zone and shows no signs of letting up. 

Wayne was always a product of the roarin' 80s. A great player in the right place at the right time. When things buttoned up in the 90s his goal scoring completely dried up. 76% of Wayne's goals were scored in the 80s, despite him playing until 1999. 84% of his goals were scored in his 20s.

Ovechkin is sill clapping bombs like he's 22, but he's 36. Ovi has already demonstrated he has far more longevity than Gretzky. Guys used to courtesy shout Gretzky's name to warn him before hitting him. Ovi on the other hand does the hitting.

TDLR: Wayne is an F-slur. Ovi is the GOAT. Watch his goal totals go BRRRRRRRRRR

 

LOL.  I hope you're joking.  Great player in the right place at the right time?  You're talking about the best player in league history.    

What hurt Wayne were injuries in the early 90's.  He was never as dominant after the Suter play.  He still led the league in scoring during the 90's.  Just not the goals. 

 

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17 minutes ago, GMRwings1983 said:

LOL.  I hope you're joking.  Great player in the right place at the right time?  You're talking about the best player in league history.    

What hurt Wayne were injuries in the early 90's.  He was never as dominant after the Suter play.  He still led the league in scoring during the 90's.  Just not the goals. 

 

Mickey and Ken were talking last night about Gretzky's 50 goals in 39 games. Wayne said it was actually 50 goals in 28 games. He went goal-less in 11 of those 39 games. I don't what the craziest thing about this statement is. 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Mickey and Ken were talking last night about Gretzky's 50 goals in 39 games. Wayne said it was actually 50 goals in 28 games. He went goal-less in 11 of those 39 games. I don't what the craziest thing about this statement is. 

 

 

Wayne Gretzky = Streaky

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2 hours ago, BarkBurgerman said:

No doubt his back issues impacted him. That's kinda been my point. Not nearly as durable as Ovi.

Grets is obviously one of the best of all time. But he was also lucky enough to play his best years in the highest scoring era on one of the best teams. Ovi woulda scored way more goals under the same circumstances. 

Ovi in the 80s on Mario's line.  169 goal season.

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