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Jonas Mahonas

Ovechkin to 1,000 Goals?

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52 minutes ago, kickazz said:

Oh jeez, the same exact calculation kickazz did a long time ago. Good to know.

Sincerely hope this Russian beats Gretzky’s record

 

It would be a cool bit of history to witness for sure. I wonder if he'll do that or win a cup first :P 

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1 hour ago, kickazz said:

Oh jeez, the same exact calculation kickazz did a long time ago. Good to know.

Sincerely hope this Russian beats Gretzky’s record

I think he'll likely pass Hull and Jagr, possibly pass Howe, but highly unlikely he'll pass Gretzky.

50 minutes ago, amato said:

It would be a cool bit of history to witness for sure. I wonder if he'll do that or win a cup first :P 

I doubt he does either to be honest. I don't see Washington getting over the hump. Maybe he'll sign with a power-house in 3 years, and win one elsewhere...

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20 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I think he'll likely pass Hull and Jagr, possibly pass Howe, but highly unlikely he'll pass Gretzky.

I doubt he does either to be honest. I don't see Washington getting over the hump. Maybe he'll sign with a power-house in 3 years, and win one elsewhere...

You are so full of it on this topic.

 

How is it "highly unlikely"?

 

He's 32.

 

4 seasons of 40 each, 4 seasons of 30 each, 4 seasons of 20 each.

 

That's 360 more goals.

 

You can't see Ovi playing til he's 43 at those kind of clips?

 

Injury is all that can stop this guy.  But he's injury adverse like Lidstrom and Fedorov.  I would be very surprised if the line on breaking the record wasnt close to even right now.

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7 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

You are so full of it on this topic.

How is it "highly unlikely"?

He's 32.

4 seasons of 40 each, 4 seasons of 30 each, 4 seasons of 20 each.

That's 360 more goals.

You can't see Ovi playing til he's 43 at those kind of clips?

Injury is all that can stop this guy.  But he's injury adverse like Lidstrom and Fedorov.  I would be very surprised if the line on breaking the record wasnt close to even right now.

No I don't think he'll score 40 in each of the next 4 seasons, 30 in each of the following 4 seasons and 20 in 9-12 years from now. And even if he did, he'd come up short. Also, that would mean he'd play until he's 44, not 43. And no I don't think he'll play until his mid 40's. Sure, Ovechkin has been very healthy throughout his career. Do you think IF he played until he was 44, he'd continue to play 75+ games? I don't. Like I said, HIGHLY unlikely he surpasses Gretzky.

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1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

No I don't think he'll score 40 in each of the next 4 seasons, 30 in each of the following 4 seasons and 20 in 9-12 years from now. And even if he did, he'd come up short. Also, that would mean he'd play until he's 44, not 43. And no I don't think he'll play until his mid 40's. Sure, Ovechkin has been very healthy throughout his career. Do you think IF he played until he was 44, he'd continue to play 75+ games? I don't. Like I said, HIGHLY unlikely he surpasses Gretzky.

1000 goals is in doubt.

900 is not.

 

1 hour ago, kickazz said:

If goal size increases and goalie pads get smaller in the next decade; guranteed Ovie beats the record 

Goal size wont increase, but i could see them limit pad size.

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2 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

I think he'll likely pass Hull and Jagr, possibly pass Howe, but highly unlikely he'll pass Gretzky.

I doubt he does either to be honest. I don't see Washington getting over the hump. Maybe he'll sign with a power-house in 3 years, and win one elsewhere...

I agree it’s unlikely that he passes Gretzky but I think it’d be cool to see.. not to take anything away from Gretzky, of course. 

And I think if he wins a cup, it’ll be elsewhere at the end of his career, signing with a powerhouse for the sake of winning a cup type of thing. I would like to see him bring Washington one though. 

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It's def possible just depends how long he plays and if he slows down. I can't see that shot slowing down much though even at 40. I'm all for Gretzky keeping the record though. That guy needs to stay a legend 

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On 12/5/2017 at 6:34 AM, krsmith17 said:

I'd say zero chance he hits 1000, and 5% chance he hits 895, to break Gretzky's record. Although likely, I don't even think it's guaranteed he'll break Jagr's record at 766. I could see Ovechkin playing until he's 40+, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he jettisoned back to Russia if his game drops off at all before then... Still one of, if not the best pure goal scorer of all time.

This.

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2 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

1000 goals is in doubt.

900 is not.

900 is absolutely in doubt... Care to make (another) friendly wager?

We already have one ridiculous bet on who will be better between Cholowski and Sambrook, in which you'll owe me tickets to a 2022 Red Wings game...

I bet tickets to a 2031 Red Wings game that Ovechkin won't pass Gretzky...

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 He has had 1.5 lockouts also granted one would have been his rookie year 04-05.  So giving him a benefit of the doubt could be a potential loss of say between 60 - 80 goals which on the high side would have him sitting almost at 600 right now. I think comparing him to Jager underrates the teams they play for.  Jagr kinda became a gun for hire and had to relearn team styles etc vs Ovie who has been on the same team allowing for chemistry etc. 

21 hours ago, kickazz said:

Oh jeez, the same exact calculation kickazz did a long time ago. Good to know.

Sincerely hope this Russian beats Gretzky’s record

I want footage of Don Cherry's head exploding when it happens....

 

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23 hours ago, kickazz said:

Imagine Ovechkin is 43 years old, still in Washington. He gets the 895 goal in the season and Washington goes on to finally win the Stanley cup that year. 

this douchebags should never get close to SC. i hope he retires with all that hardware he's been given to relealse that is all scrap without the major one.

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Ovi will eventually win a cup, although I think he does it the Ray Bourque way. By his late 30's, the Caps won't be contenders anymore so if he hasn't won a cup by then, he'll have to do it somewhere else.

No, he won't get 1000. He won't play until he's 43 or 44. He might play past 40, but I would be surprised if he plays much beyond that. He will get to 800, beyond that is anyone's guess. I would prefer he not pass Gordie Howe. If he stalls out at 800 even, I'm cool with that. But, I'm not worried if I'm Gretzky. 

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4 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Ovi will eventually win a cup, although I think he does it the Ray Bourque way. By his late 30's, the Caps won't be contenders anymore so if he hasn't won a cup by then, he'll have to do it somewhere else.

No, he won't get 1000. He won't play until he's 43 or 44. He might play past 40, but I would be surprised if he plays much beyond that. He will get to 800, beyond that is anyone's guess. I would prefer he not pass Gordie Howe. If he stalls out at 800 even, I'm cool with that. But, I'm not worried if I'm Gretzky. 

Why? The guy is an absolute tank and takes really good care of himself. He's one of those weirdos that not only lifts weights but runs a s*** ton during the off season.

Has he ever missed more than a couple of games a season? 

Only reason he won't play till he's 43 or 44 is if he doesn't feel like it. Unless he absolutely has the worst injury possible; if he's continuing to live the way he is I'm almost positive he has the ability to play beyond 40. 

Edited by kickazz

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38 minutes ago, kickazz said:

Why? The guy is an absolute tank and takes really good care of himself. He's one of those weirdos that not only lifts weights but runs a s*** ton during the off season.

Has he ever missed more than a couple of games a season? 

Only reason he won't play till he's 43 or 44 is if he doesn't feel like it. Unless he absolutely has the worst injury possible; if he's continuing to live the way he is I'm almost positive he has the ability to play beyond 40. 

It's so rare tho. I don't doubt his work ethic or his freakish physical shape. It's just that in order to do what is being suggested, he would have to maintain what he is doing for another 10 years or more. The odds of that happening, even with someone like Ovi, are low. There are a lot of variables that Ovi has no control over. A freak skating injury, a deflected puck, a crosscheck happy goon, etc. He's on a good team now, that also makes it easier, how long will that last? Goalies are only getting better, league rules could change that hurts offensive production, or new defensive schemes. If he was playing for the 80's Oilers, I would have less doubt. Don't get me wrong, if anyone COULD do it, it would be The GrEight One. It's just that there are too many things working against something like happening for it to be realistic for me.

Lightning in a bottle type situation IMO.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

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27 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

It's so rare tho. I don't doubt his work ethic or his freakish physical shape. It's just that in order to do what is being suggested, he would have to maintain what he is doing for another 10 years or more. The odds of that happening, even with someone like Ovi, are low. There are a lot of variables that Ovi has no control over. A freak skating injury, a deflected puck, a crosscheck happy goon, etc. He's on a good team now, that also makes it easier, how long will that last? Goalies are only getting better, league rules could change that hurts offensive production, or new defensive schemes. If he was playing for the 80's Oilers, I would have less doubt. Don't get me wrong, if anyone COULD do it, it would be The GrEight One. It's just that there are too many things working against something like happening for it to be realistic for me.

Lightning in a bottle type situation IMO.

If I had to put my money on it; I'd predict that Ovechkin will be one of the few forwards that could possibly play till after 40 just based off his lack of injury history, overall fitness, regimen and play style. Defenseman just can't hurt this guy; his upper body strength is ridiculous. Most guys at his age start having wear and tear. I have yet to hear him complain of any. And his shot is tough to stop even for these new goalies. He could be a 42 year old and cherry pick for days and barely skate if he wanted to. Shot ain't changing though. 

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Why is suggesting he won't break Gretzky's record a poor opinion?  Seems to be a lot on here in that boat.  Of course it's not impossible and perhaps that the angle that some are taking, but it's most certainly unlikely.

Some perspective on this.  At the same number of games played, Gretzky had 749 goals (and was almost 2 years younger).  Gretzky retired at 38, so you'd first have to assume he plays to 40 just to catch up on the time period and then you'd have to assume he scored 150 more goals between now and then what Gretzky did over the same period.  Yes, Gretzky back broke down later in his career and his numbers suffered, but it's also a stretch to think Ovechkin will be healthy over the rest of his career.  Then you have to consider what rate he'll score at.  People talking about him getting there if he plays to 45 is just silly.  Again, not impossible, but highly unlikely....only 5 guys in the history of the league has played to 45.

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