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Jonas Mahonas

Ovechkin to 1,000 Goals?

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1 hour ago, kickazz said:

Ovie gonna be #6

He very well may be, but that doesn't mean it is not unlikely.  Even if he plays to 45.....at what scoring pace will he maintain?  The one thing that would make me lean more towards thinking he'll stick around is simply if he's within reasonable reach of the record...he'll stick around for that.

I originally thought Jagr was sticking around to pass Messier, but he stayed a bit past that (although he pretty clearly shouldn't have).

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21 hours ago, kickazz said:

Lol why? 

Like a mosquito on nudist beach, I don't know where to start.
Very recent, Olympics. He was very very vocal about NHL isn't allowing its players to go to 2018 Olympics. He had screamed as little boy: 'I don't care, I just go...!!!' Well, then he very quietly admitted that his Olympic dream is dead and soon after he screamed again announcing 'social movement to support russian president'.

For me being russian, the sequence above is indicative and I take it as another prove of his douchebaggery. It may not be so clear to you though, but as I said being russian, I think I can recognize the patter this individual is following.

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The problem he'll have is that players don't really score 40 or 50 goals into their mid to late 30's.  There's hardly any precedent for it.  I read somewhere yesterday (don't know if true), that if Ovechkin leads the league in goals this season, he'll be the oldest since Esposito in the mid 70's to do so.  That's pretty impressive, but also shows how hard it is for players to be among the league leader in goals into their twilight years.  

Obviously, if he can score 40 goals the next five seasons in a row, he'll be really close to the record.  If he has any more seasons like last year, he'll fall behind the pace.  

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6 hours ago, GMRwings1983 said:

The problem he'll have is that players don't really score 40 or 50 goals into their mid to late 30's.  There's hardly any precedent for it.  I read somewhere yesterday (don't know if true), that if Ovechkin leads the league in goals this season, he'll be the oldest since Esposito in the mid 70's to do so.  That's pretty impressive, but also shows how hard it is for players to be among the league leader in goals into their twilight years.  

Obviously, if he can score 40 goals the next five seasons in a row, he'll be really close to the record.  If he has any more seasons like last year, he'll fall behind the pace.  

Yes, that's correct.  Espisito lead the league in goals in 1975 at the age of 32.  In the 43 years since, the leading goal scorer has been 30 years old 2 times, but never older than that.

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22 hours ago, GMRwings1983 said:

The problem he'll have is that players don't really score 40 or 50 goals into their mid to late 30's.  There's hardly any precedent for it.  I read somewhere yesterday (don't know if true), that if Ovechkin leads the league in goals this season, he'll be the oldest since Esposito in the mid 70's to do so.  That's pretty impressive, but also shows how hard it is for players to be among the league leader in goals into their twilight years.  

Obviously, if he can score 40 goals the next five seasons in a row, he'll be really close to the record.  If he has any more seasons like last year, he'll fall behind the pace.  

Wrong.  He can have 10 straight last years and still break it.  Truth is- he's going to have 3 or 4 more this years, 6 or 7 more last years, and 2 or 3 seasons of 20 goals before putting up the skates.  The guy isnt 175 lb minimum fitness Wayne Gretzky.  As kickazz said before, he's a 235 lb bull with a dedication to his training.  I have zero doubt he passes Gretzky and only about 33% doubt he gets to 1,000.

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43 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Wrong.  He can have 10 straight last years and still break it.  Truth is- he's going to have 3 or 4 more this years, 6 or 7 more last years, and 2 or 3 seasons of 20 goals before putting up the skates.  The guy isnt 175 lb minimum fitness Wayne Gretzky.  As kickazz said before, he's a 235 lb bull with a dedication to his training.  I have zero doubt he passes Gretzky and only about 33% doubt he gets to 1,000.

Truth is- you have no idea...

I'd bet a small fortune that he doesn't pass Gretzky.

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2 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Wrong.  He can have 10 straight last years and still break it.  Truth is- he's going to have 3 or 4 more this years, 6 or 7 more last years, and 2 or 3 seasons of 20 goals before putting up the skates.  The guy isnt 175 lb minimum fitness Wayne Gretzky.  As kickazz said before, he's a 235 lb bull with a dedication to his training.  I have zero doubt he passes Gretzky and only about 33% doubt he gets to 1,000.

How many players in NHL history have had 10 consecutive seasons of scoring 30 goals after the age of 32?  

I'll give you a hint.  It's a nice round number.  

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700?...likely

800?...reasonable

900?...plausible

1000?..improbable

I have to say tho, if anyone is going to pass Gretzky, I wouldn't mind it being Ovi. I actually like him, and I would root for him to do it.

Unlike when I rooted against McGwire and Sosa to break Maris' 61 HR season, or Bonds to pass Aaron's 755 career home runs. It's sad when ur about to see history being made and ur actually rooting against it.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

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17 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

700 - by age 35.

800 - by age 38.

900 - by age 41.

100 in the next 3 years? Sure, I can definitely see that.

Another 100 in the following 3 years? Doubtful.

Another 100 in the following 3 years (in his 40's)? Not going to happen.

Ovechkin is a UFA after the next 3 years. There's no guarantee he plays beyond that. Although, I can see him signing another 3 year contract after that, and then going back to Russia to finish his career at the age of 39. I doubt he plays in the NHL much beyond that though If he does, he'll likely still be an effective player, but nowhere close to the player he is today.

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5 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

100 in the next 3 years? Sure, I can definitely see that.

Another 100 in the following 3 years? Doubtful.

Another 100 in the following 3 years (in his 40's)? Not going to happen.

Ovechkin is a UFA after the next 3 years. There's no guarantee he plays beyond that. Although, I can see him signing another 3 year contract after that, and then going back to Russia to finish his career at the age of 39. I doubt he plays in the NHL much beyond that though If he does, he'll likely still be an effective player, but nowhere close to the player he is today.

Yah, he's going to quit with the record in sight.  You are right.  He will probably get to 890 and then just say "Screw it.  I'm going back to Russia."

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8 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Yah, he's going to quit with the record in sight.  You are right.  He will probably get to 890 and then just say "Screw it.  I'm going back to Russia."

Yup, that's exactly what I said...

I think he'll retire with 700-800 goals, which is nowhere close to the record...

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42 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Yup, that's exactly what I said...

I think he'll retire with 700-800 goals, which is nowhere close to the record...

Yah, hes showing all the signs of becoming a player that has a hard time reaching 20 goals a year.  Totally breaking down.

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2 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

51

53

50

33

46

18

16

14

17

12

19

11

14

7

Retire

 

Yup, total breakdown about to happen.  Easy to see.

Without looking it up, I'm guessing nobody has ever had three consecutive 50 goal seasons from the ages of 32-35.  You also have him scoring 46 goals as a 37 year old, which is even more improbable.  After that, you seem to have him joining the Red Wings and playing on a line with Helm and Glendenning the rest of his career.  

Edited by GMRwings1983

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2 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Yah, hes showing all the signs of becoming a player that has a hard time reaching 20 goals a year.  Totally breaking down.

Again, exactly what I said... :rolleyes: I don't even know why I bother attempting to have a conversation with you...

2 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

51

53

50

33

46

18

16

14

17

12

19

11

14

7

Retire

Yup, total breakdown about to happen.  Easy to see.

I just said today...

8 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

100 in the next 3 years? Sure, I can definitely see that.

So where do you get "18, 16, 14" for a total of 48 in the next three years? You also have him playing until he's 42. I doubt he plays in the NHL that long.

You want to know what I expect from Ovechkin over the next several years? I'm not sure why I'm going to bother because I'm sure you'll just try to spin that like everything else I've said thus far, but here goes anyway...

2018-19 (age 33) - 35-40 goals

2019-20 (age 34) - 30-35

2020-21 (age 35) - 30-35

Sign another 3-year contract

2021-22 (age 36) - 25-30

2022-23 (age 37) - 25-30

2023-24 (age 38) - 20-25

I think all of those numbers are fairly generous, assuming no major injuries, and no major drop off in the latter years, like literally every other NHL player in the history of the game...

This would put him around 780 goals at the age of 39.

He may then stick around another year or two to try to break Gordie's record (if he hasn't already). Or he may say f*** it, 3rd all time behind Gretzky and Howe is pretty damn good. I'm going back to Russia to live / play in front of family and friends.

I'll say it one last time. I think the odds of Ovechkin breaking Gretzky's record is highly unlikely. You think the odds of him not breaking the record is impossible...

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2 minutes ago, GMRwings1983 said:

Without looking it up, I'm guessing nobody has ever had three consecutive 50 goal seasons from the ages of 32-35You also have him scoring 46 goals as a 37 year old, which is even more improbable.  After that, you seem to have him joining the Red Wings and playing on a line with Helm and Glendenning the rest of his career.  

Those point totals already happened, from the age 29-31.

The 46 goal season is this year (age 32), assuming he gets 4 more goals in the remaining 11 games.

The huge drop off is what Jonas implied I believe will happen... It's not.

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1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

He may then stick around another year or two to try to break Gordie's record (if he hasn't already). Or he may say f*** it, 3rd all time behind Gretzky and Howe is pretty damn good. I'm going back to Russia to live / play in front of family and friends.

 

He's no Datsyuk. 

Edited by kickazz

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4 hours ago, kickazz said:

He's no Datsyuk. 

Exactly.  Datsyuk and Kovalchuk left for Russia.  Not Ovechkin.

 

Ovechkin will be at 800 goals within the next 6 seasons.  It might take him 4.  It might take him 6.  But I cant see him EVER producing less than 30 goals a year until he's over 45 years old.  Based on that, he will only need to go 9 more seasons at the very worst to go by Gretzky.  

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On 3/15/2018 at 8:36 AM, toby91_ca said:

Why is suggesting he won't break Gretzky's record a poor opinion?  Seems to be a lot on here in that boat.  Of course it's not impossible and perhaps that the angle that some are taking, but it's most certainly unlikely.

Some perspective on this.  At the same number of games played, Gretzky had 749 goals (and was almost 2 years younger).  Gretzky retired at 38, so you'd first have to assume he plays to 40 just to catch up on the time period and then you'd have to assume he scored 150 more goals between now and then what Gretzky did over the same period.  Yes, Gretzky back broke down later in his career and his numbers suffered, but it's also a stretch to think Ovechkin will be healthy over the rest of his career.  Then you have to consider what rate he'll score at.  People talking about him getting there if he plays to 45 is just silly.  Again, not impossible, but highly unlikely....only 5 guys in the history of the league has played to 45.

And of the 5, two were goalies. Roberts and Bower. I'd toss Worsely in there too, myself. made it to 44 years, 323 days. If his fear of flying hadn't gotten so bad, he would have made it to 45 easy. One was a defenceman. Chelios, who hung on way too long. Two were forwards. Howe and Jagr. Howe was just hardcore, I can't see Ovi playing through pain and dizzy spells.  And Jagr, he just seemed ageless till this season. But only TWO forwards have played past 45 in over 100 years of NHL/WHA/Pro hockey. Odds arent good that Ovi makes it.

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7 hours ago, kickazz said:

He's no Datsyuk. 

He could still go back to Russia earlier after playing out whatever contract he's signed to then. You know, like players SHOULD do, DATSYUK!!??

I know Ovi is a strong player physically, but does he actually keep himself in top shape? Thought there were complaints about his conditioning before? 

 

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10 hours ago, kickazz said:

He's no Datsyuk. 

Didn't say he was. There's a huge difference in leaving at the age of 37, mid contract like Datsyuk did, and leaving at the age of 39, after your contract is over, like I suggested Ovechkin may do... like countless other Russian players have done / will do.

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