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HoweFan

Our draft position

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1 hour ago, Dabura said:

Lowest we can finish now is 5th-worst, with a Canucks OT/SO loss or win of any kind.

What amazes me is that three teams in our division are going to finish lower than us.

That actually is pretty amazing, thinking about it. Folks in the Atlantic division need to get their s*** together. 

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3 hours ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

Tankathon says we have an 8.5% chance at the first pick. Not sure how accurate that particular site is, but I'm sure someone here will confirm/deny.

Yes, that's right. We officially have an 8.5% chance at the number one pick, 8.7% chance at the number two pick, and an 8.9% chance at the number three pick, which gives us a 26.1% chance of moving up into the top three. We have an 8.4% chance staying at five, 34.5% chance to drop back one spot to six, 26.7% chance to drop back two spots to seven, and a 4.3% chance to drop back three spots to eight, which is the worst we can pick...

Odds are we drop back, but I have a feeling we defy the odds and move up this year. We might not get the number one pick, but we're going to get a top three pick!

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On ‎4‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 6:41 AM, krsmith17 said:

Yes, that's right. We officially have an 8.5% chance at the number one pick, 8.7% chance at the number two pick, and an 8.9% chance at the number three pick, which gives us a 26.1% chance of moving up into the top three. We have an 8.4% chance staying at five, 34.5% chance to drop back one spot to six, 26.7% chance to drop back two spots to seven, and a 4.3% chance to drop back three spots to eight, which is the worst we can pick...

Odds are we drop back, but I have a feeling we defy the odds and move up this year. We might not get the number one pick, but we're going to get a top three pick!

So the worst we can pick is 8th (Bouchard! :lol: )

I ran the simulator 6 times on capfriendly.com, to get this:

 

4 out the other 5 times, we were either 2nd or 3rd.

 

Edited by LeftWinger

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28 minutes ago, LeftWinger said:

So the worst we can pick is 8th (Bouchard! :lol: )

I ran the simulator 6 times on capfriendly.com, to get this:

image.png.aef779bb4b89c569289e7edbeaa1d47c.png

4 out the other 5 times, we were either 2nd or 3rd.

I doubt Bouchard falls to 8, but I also doubt we fall to 8. If we don't move up to 1 or 2, I want Bouchard.

I can definitely deal with that outcome. Wings at number one, and no sign of the Hawks.

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4 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

I doubt Bouchard falls to 8, but I also doubt we fall to 8. If we don't move up to 1 or 2, I want Bouchard.

I can definitely deal with that outcome. Wings at number one, and no sign of the Hawks.

If this happens and the Hawks pick first or second, there is clearly a fix.

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After the Daley signing I decided I wouldn't post all season, so now that it's over and we finally have something to look forward to - here's to hoping for a little luck on the 28th!

I'm not sure what the consensus is here, but I don't view this as a 5-7 year rebuild considering the pieces we have in place... 1-2 more years is possible depending on the lottery results. Think back to the 2014-2015 Bruins, (not unsimilar to us) they had a great run from 2007-2014 and then missed the playoffs in both 2015 and 2016. In 2018, they were 1 point shy of winning the Eastern Conference. They were a better team than we currently are after 2 years of missing the postseason - but I don't think the gap is drastic. Unlike us, they haven't had a top 12 pick since 2011, so they didn't change their fortune with elite prospects - contradictory to how most people visualize a re-build.

Currently we have the #5 odds at drafting a franchise changing defenceman from Sweden, who has been compared to another #5 we are all familiar with...Hopefully this is some sort of omen and Rasmus Dahlin ends up in Detroit, but even if we stay in the top 5 we have the chance to add a great player in Tkachuk, Boqvist, Bouchard etc... Something that closes that gap I spoke of above.

As was the case in Boston, development will be the key here - so if any of Larkin, Mantha, Rasmussen, or Cholowski can develop similarly to a guy like David Pastrnak - we may be a little closer than it feels. I'm sure some will disagree, but we have another 6 months of disagreement to look forward to so let the fun begin!

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2 minutes ago, WingedWheel91 said:

After the Daley signing I decided I wouldn't post all season, so now that it's over and we finally have something to look forward to - here's to hoping for a little luck on the 28th!

I'm not sure what the consensus is here, but I don't view this as a 5-7 year rebuild considering the pieces we have in place... 1-2 more years is possible depending on the lottery results. Think back to the 2014-2015 Bruins, (not unsimilar to us) they had a great run from 2007-2014 and then missed the playoffs in both 2015 and 2016. In 2018, they were 1 point shy of winning the Eastern Conference. They were a better team than we currently are after 2 years of missing the postseason - but I don't think the gap is drastic. Unlike us, they haven't had a top 12 pick since 2011, so they didn't change their fortune with elite prospects - contradictory to how most people visualize a re-build.

Currently we have the #5 odds at drafting a franchise changing defenceman from Sweden, who has been compared to another #5 we are all familiar with...Hopefully this is some sort of omen and Rasmus Dahlin ends up in Detroit, but even if we stay in the top 5 we have the chance to add a great player in Tkachuk, Boqvist, Bouchard etc... Something that closes that gap I spoke of above.

As was the case in Boston, development will be the key here - so if any of Larkin, Mantha, Rasmussen, or Cholowski can develop similarly to a guy like David Pastrnak - we may be a little closer than it feels. I'm sure some will disagree, but we have another 6 months of disagreement to look forward to so let the fun begin!

I'd sign 5 more Daley's if I could

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2 hours ago, WingedWheel91 said:

After the Daley signing I decided I wouldn't post all season, so now that it's over and we finally have something to look forward to - here's to hoping for a little luck on the 28th!

I'm not sure what the consensus is here, but I don't view this as a 5-7 year rebuild considering the pieces we have in place... 1-2 more years is possible depending on the lottery results. Think back to the 2014-2015 Bruins, (not unsimilar to us) they had a great run from 2007-2014 and then missed the playoffs in both 2015 and 2016. In 2018, they were 1 point shy of winning the Eastern Conference. They were a better team than we currently are after 2 years of missing the postseason - but I don't think the gap is drastic. Unlike us, they haven't had a top 12 pick since 2011, so they didn't change their fortune with elite prospects - contradictory to how most people visualize a re-build.

Currently we have the #5 odds at drafting a franchise changing defenceman from Sweden, who has been compared to another #5 we are all familiar with...Hopefully this is some sort of omen and Rasmus Dahlin ends up in Detroit, but even if we stay in the top 5 we have the chance to add a great player in Tkachuk, Boqvist, Bouchard etc... Something that closes that gap I spoke of above.

As was the case in Boston, development will be the key here - so if any of Larkin, Mantha, Rasmussen, or Cholowski can develop similarly to a guy like David Pastrnak - we may be a little closer than it feels. I'm sure some will disagree, but we have another 6 months of disagreement to look forward to so let the fun begin!

A dramatic two-year turnaround is possible, but the odds are very much against it. I'm hoping for the best while expecting the worst.

The thing about the Bruins is they have Marchand and Bergeron, both of whom rank among the very best players in the league. So they have a strong foundation, plus they have solid veterans in Chara, Krejci, Backes. Then you add kids like Pastrnak, who's as effective as any of our top young forwards, and McAvoy, who'd probably be our best defenseman. And in goal, Rask is better than Howard and Khudobin has dramatically outperformed Mrazek this season.

Point being, we have a lot of work to do, a lot of catching up to do. The planets -- all of them -- will have to align for us to be the best or second-best team in the Atlantic Division by 2020 or 2021. We'll have to get extremely lucky in the draft (this year's and/or next year's) and possibly acquire a top UFA like John Carlson or Erik Karlsson or Jeff Skinner.

It's generally agreed that pretty much everything has gone right for the Leafs' rebuild. Yet, even with all of their young talent and Babcock behind the bench and Lamoriello upstairs and all the money and resources in the world at their disposal, it's been a few years now and they're not yet a really serious Cup contender (IMO).

/buzzkill

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Contractually our forward core is built around Zetterberg, Nielsen, Helm, and Abdelkader

On D it's built around Dekeyser, Ericsson, and Daley

Were pretty F'd in the A based on that contract base. There's not gonna be a quick turn around unless we draft some generational talent very soon, like this year soon. AKA it's not at all likely.

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23 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Contractually our forward core is built around Zetterberg, Nielsen, Helm, and Abdelkader

On D it's built around Dekeyser, Ericsson, and Daley

Were pretty F'd in the A based on that contract base. There's not gonna be a quick turn around unless we draft some generational talent very soon, like this year soon. AKA it's not at all likely.

I don't think this matters a great deal considering we have the cap room to keep Larkin, Mantha, and AA while none of Rasmussen, Cholowski, our 2018 1st Rounder (top 5 + 28th) or our 2019 1st rounder (top 10) will need big extensions (after bridge deals) until most of those contracts have expired. Unless you plan on re-building our core pieces through FA in the next 2 summers, we should be OK.

There is little doubt we will miss the playoffs next season, so my argument is certainly based on adding a Dahlin/Tkachuk/Svechnikov/Zadina this year, and then a Hughes/Suzuki/Foote type next summer to become relevant again in 2019/2020. I don't think its far fetched when you compare our secondary depth to other teams in the bottom 5. 

FWIW, I am in full agreement that all of the contracts above (excluding Hank) were horrendous, and will prevent us from adding the FA pieces (like Backes) to move the needle in 2 years, but with some luck in the lottery our team looks to have a decent future.

 

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