Official 2019 Offseason Rebuild Thread

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

28 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

AA is due for a huge raise soon with his numbers going up and up.

Sure. From whatever team we trade his ass to.

[kipwinger 8,522]

2 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I wouldn't be looking to sign any outside UFAs this summer. We'll have a young core coming off ELCs and needing raises in a few years, and tying up large sums of salary/cap space for players that are past their prime and no longer worth their cap hit is just bad management IMO.

All of our big s***ty contracts are expiring just as fast as young guys will be needing raises.  Even faster actually.  There's a very real possibility that we could be shedding all of Kronwall, Nyquist, Howard, Vanek, Frk, Jensen, and Witkowski this year.  Green, Ericsson, and Daly next year.  Bernier, Glendening, Helm the year after. 
 

Long story short, our Cap situation is looking REALLY good.  We've got more than enough money to pay our RFAs and sign UFAs.  The key, of course, is making sure the UFAs you sign are worth it.  I think Duchene this year, and Trouba next year would be excellent acquisitions. 

[krsmith17 7,191]

7 hours ago, kipwinger said:

All of our big s***ty contracts are expiring just as fast as young guys will be needing raises.  Even faster actually.  There's a very real possibility that we could be shedding all of Kronwall, Nyquist, Howard, Vanek, Frk, Jensen, and Witkowski this year.  Green, Ericsson, and Daly next year.  Bernier, Glendening, Helm the year after. 
 

Long story short, our Cap situation is looking REALLY good.  We've got more than enough money to pay our RFAs and sign UFAs.  The key, of course, is making sure the UFAs you sign are worth it.  I think Duchene this year, and Trouba next year would be excellent acquisitions. 

There's also a real possibility that half of those guys could be re-signed, especially if Holland is still the GM... If Kronwall wants to come back, I think he'll be back. If Holland can't get a big return for Nyquist, I think he'll be extended. Same goes for Howard. Vanek should be done, but wouldn't be surprised if he's brought back either. Frk and Witkowski are depth guys, basically making league minimum, so if not them, it'll be two players costing around the same. Jensen could (hopefully) be brought back at a slight raise. I could see Green and / or Ericsson brought back as well. Daley will likely (hopefully) be done. Bernier could go either way, and may depend on if Howard is still around / playing at a high level. I could also see Glendening and / or Helm brought back... Of course they're not all coming back, but I could easily see a few of them back beyond their current contracts.

I agree with Trouba. I'd go hard after him next offseason. I'd be okay with signing Duchene if we can trade Nielsen, who I'd be aggressively shopping at this point. Otherwise, I wouldn't be interested.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

There's also a real possibility that half of those guys could be re-signed, especially if Holland is still the GM... If Kronwall wants to come back, I think he'll be back. If Holland can't get a big return for Nyquist, I think he'll be extended. Same goes for Howard. Vanek should be done, but wouldn't be surprised if he's brought back either. Frk and Witkowski are depth guys, basically making league minimum, so if not them, it'll be two players costing around the same. Jensen could (hopefully) be brought back at a slight raise. I could see Green and / or Ericsson brought back as well. Daley will likely (hopefully) be done. Bernier could go either way, and may depend on if Howard is still around / playing at a high level. I could also see Glendening and / or Helm brought back... Of course they're not all coming back, but I could easily see a few of them back beyond their current contracts.

I agree with Trouba. I'd go hard after him next offseason. I'd be okay with signing Duchene if we can trade Nielsen, who I'd be aggressively shopping at this point. Otherwise, I wouldn't be interested.

I am not advocating a Duchene signing at all, but why would it be necessary to trade Nielsen? He can center the third line and cap space isn't an issue. 

 

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

9 hours ago, kipwinger said:

All of our big s***ty contracts are expiring just as fast as young guys will be needing raises.  Even faster actually.  There's a very real possibility that we could be shedding all of Kronwall, Nyquist, Howard, Vanek, Frk, Jensen, and Witkowski this year.  Green, Ericsson, and Daly next year.  Bernier, Glendening, Helm the year after. 
 

Long story short, our Cap situation is looking REALLY good.  We've got more than enough money to pay our RFAs and sign UFAs.  The key, of course, is making sure the UFAs you sign are worth it.  I think Duchene this year, and Trouba next year would be excellent acquisitions. 

True. But the cost of players to replace those roster spots + pay raises for expiring ELCs pretty much eats up all that money. If they could make it work, great. Not so sure I trust KH to do that tho.

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

8 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

I am not advocating a Duchene signing at all, but why would it be necessary to trade Nielsen? He can center the third line and cap space isn't an issue. 

 

Well if veleno’s a center along with Larkin and nielsen where would duchene fit if nielsen wasn’t dealt?  Is Rasmussen officially written off as a center as well ? Plus if we actually land hughes we sure as well wouldn’t need to get duchene or another center.

As much as I really like kakko looking at what’s happening with laine in Winnipeg hughes might be what zadina needs and two lines of hughes/zadina and mantha/Larkin might make us a dangerous team for many years 

[krsmith17 7,191]

5 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

I am not advocating a Duchene signing at all, but why would it be necessary to trade Nielsen? He can center the third line and cap space isn't an issue. 

See above. I don't think we're out of "cap hell" yet. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we're near the cap again next season, even without a big splash in free agency like signing Duchene. Duchene is going to command more than Larkin, and I don't want to sign a 2C long term for more money than our 1C / future captain.

We're rebuilding and we'll have some promising young kids coming over the next couple seasons. So unless we're moving out or moving on from several players, I don't want to add to the log jam. I think Veleno will be ready, if not next season, the following season for sure, and I don't want him held back because of a 35/36 year old Nielsen and / or a 29/30 year old Duchene.

[kipwinger 8,522]

Nobody is saying that KH is going to play every card right, I'm saying he's got plenty of cards to play and that the Cap isn't an issue unless he makes it so. 

If I were KH I would do the following for the remainder of the season:

1. Trade Nyquist for Devon Toews and a 2nd to the Isles, who have been rumored to be in on Nyquist.

2. Trade Howard to Columbus for a 2nd and a prospect. I proposed a 3 way trade earlier with FLA which I think makes sense, but obviously those are hard.

3. Trade Jensen for a 3rd

4.  Go hard for Duchene, but don't be afraid to walk away if the bidding gets ludicrous.

5. Draft the best available center with our first pick. 

6. Kronwall, Frk, Witko all walk in the offseason. 

 

 

 

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

See above. I don't think we're out of "cap hell" yet. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we're near the cap again next season, even without a big splash in free agency like signing Duchene. Duchene is going to command more than Larkin, and I don't want to sign a 2C long term for more money than our 1C / future captain.

We're rebuilding and we'll have some promising young kids coming over the next couple seasons. So unless we're moving out or moving on from several players, I don't want to add to the log jam. I think Veleno will be ready, if not next season, the following season for sure, and I don't want him held back because of a 35/36 year old Nielsen and / or a 29/30 year old Duchene.

You think that next season or the season after Veleno will be ready to step in a be a 2nd line center? Because that's the void that needs filling. So, if the Wings want to compete in 19-20 (they do) and they don't land an NHL-ready #1 or #2 center in this draft, they're looking at a big hole in the top 6 that needs to be filled. I'm not saying it needs to be Duchene (in fact I'd prefer it wasn't) but it has to be someone. 

I'd also add, I have no aversion to signing a 28 or 29 year old to a big contract. This team's core may be in their relative infancy but there's no rule that says that all players of importance HAVE to be U25. 

Edit: a star ( legit top 6) 28 or 29 year old. Not a plug. 

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by The 91 of Ryans

[kipwinger 8,522]

The thing I like about Duchene is what a nightmare he'd be to play against in a 7 game series.  The dude is like Larkin, super fast, super engaged, motor always running.  Between the two of them I think they'd skate you into the ground over the course of a series.  We're FINALLY getting a team identity and he fits right in.  I actually really liked Ryan O'Reilly as a trade option last year for the same reason. 

[krsmith17 7,191]

44 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

You think that next season or the season after Veleno will be ready to step in a be a 2nd line center? Because that's the void that needs filling. So, if the Wings want to compete in 19-20 (they do) and they don't land an NHL-ready #1 or #2 center in this draft, they're looking at a big hole in the top 6 that needs to be filled. I'm not saying it needs to be Duchene (in fact I'd prefer it wasn't) but it has to be someone. 

I'd also add, I have no aversion to signing a 28 or 29 year old to a big contract. This team's core may be in their relative infancy but there's no rule that says that all players of importance HAVE to be U25. 

Edit: a star ( legit top 6) 28 or 29 year old. Not a plug. 

No, I don't necessarily think Veleno will be ready to fill that 2C role in the next two seasons(although I wouldn't rule it out). Which is why I said, I'd like to sign a player like Duchene (not necessarily him) to fill that 2C role, IF we can trade Nielsen. If we have all three of Larkin, Duchene and Nielsen down the middle, that means that Veleno is either forced to stay in Grand Rapids, play 4th line center with plugs in Detroit, or moved to the wing for THREE more seasons after this one. All three of those scenarios would be bad for our top center prospects development in my opinion.

Holland says he wants to compete as early as next season, but if we're being real, that's a bit of a pipe dream. We're likely 2-3 years away from truly competing, and if we're not able to get an upgrade at center in that time, via trade or free agency, I'm okay with rolling Nielsen there until one of the prospects (currently in the system or upcoming drafts) emerge.

[kipwinger 8,522]

1 minute ago, krsmith17 said:

No, I don't necessarily think Veleno will be ready to fill that 2C role in the next two seasons(although I wouldn't rule it out). Which is why I said, I'd like to sign a player like Duchene (not necessarily him) to fill that 2C role, IF we can trade Nielsen. If we have all three of Larkin, Duchene and Nielsen down the middle, that means that Veleno is either forced to stay in Grand Rapids, play 4th line center with plugs in Detroit, or moved to the wing for THREE more seasons after this one. All three of those scenarios would be bad for our top center prospects development in my opinion.

Holland says he wants to compete as early as next season, but if we're being real, that's a bit of a pipe dream. We're likely 2-3 years away from truly competing, and if we're not able to get an upgrade at center in that time, via trade or free agency, I'm okay with rolling Nielsen there until one of the prospects (currently in the system or upcoming drafts) emerge.

Not necessarily:

Bert-Larkin-AA

Ras-Duchene-Zadina

Mantha-Veleno-Svech

Neilsen-Glen-Abby

Helm

 

The bigger concern would be if we drafted a center that was ready to play in the NHL within a season or two.  But the draft comes before UFA, so if you did land a Hughes type guy, you just wouldn't sign a Duchene.  Not really that hard to navigate. 

[krsmith17 7,191]

7 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Not necessarily:

Bert-Larkin-AA

Ras-Duchene-Zadina

Mantha-Veleno-Svech

Neilsen-Glen-Abby

Helm

The bigger concern would be if we drafted a center that was ready to play in the NHL within a season or two.  But the draft comes before UFA, so if you did land a Hughes type guy, you just wouldn't sign a Duchene.  Not really that hard to navigate. 

Sure, if we were an organization that didn't rely heavily on veterans carrying the load. I don't see any way the current management / coaching staff would demote Nielsen to the 4th line wing. And until something changes, I'll assume Holland and Blashill will be here for the foreseeable future.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

28 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Sure, if we were an organization that didn't rely heavily on veterans carrying the load. I don't see any way the current management / coaching staff would demote Nielsen to the 4th line wing. And until something changes, I'll assume Holland and Blashill will be here for the foreseeable future.

Blashill has shown plenty of signs that he's willing to play kids in the top 6 - 9 over vets. 

And Holland has made it clear he's evaluating Blashill based on youth development. 

So yeah, Nielsen on the 4th is no stretch and I'm sure the org. would be thrilled to have this problem 

Edited February 7, 2019 by The 91 of Ryans

[krsmith17 7,191]

4 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Blashill has shown plenty of signs that he's willing to play kids in the top 6 - 9 over vets. 

And Holland has made it clear he's evaluating Blashill based on youth development. 

So yeah, Nielsen on the 4th is no stretch and I'm sure the org. Would be thrilled to have this problem 

I know kids have gotten opportunity, and I don't doubt that will continue, but I do doubt Nielsen would get demoted to the 4th line. I could be wrong though. Some veterans are still relied on heavily, and get more ice time than they might deserve. eg Justin Abdelkader.

Anyway, I'd just prefer to stay away from free agency this offseason, unless we're able to shed a big contract that we wouldn't otherwise be losing to free agency. eg Frans Nielsen.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

46 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I know kids have gotten opportunity, and I don't doubt that will continue, but I do doubt Nielsen would get demoted to the 4th line. I could be wrong though. Some veterans are still relied on heavily, and get more ice time than they might deserve. eg Justin Abdelkader.

Anyway, I'd just prefer to stay away from free agency this offseason, unless we're able to shed a big contract that we wouldn't otherwise be losing to free agency. eg Frans Nielsen.

Fair enough. 

[Dabura 12,207]

Duchene's a good player. A couple years ago I was in favor of kicking the tires on him, in a trade context. However, with Larkin showing that he can be at the very least a serviceable 1C, and with the addition of a projected top-six C in Veleno, and with Larkin and Veleno and Duchene all being pretty similar players, and with Duchene conveniently having a breakthrough season in a contract year...my interest isn't very strong, even though all it would cost to get him is money. The idea of committing to a 1-2 of Larkin-Duchene doesn't really get my HYPE! juices flowing.

We do have a hole at 2C tho, and that's definitely one of the areas you can point to and say, "A modest improvement there would be huge for this team."

I'd be content to wait for Veleno and, perhaps, our top pick in the upcoming draft -- but that's probably at least a couple years of waiting. Playing in the NHL as a 20-year-old is one thing. Being a solid 2C on a good playoff team as a 20-year-old is quite another. Do the Wings want to go another year or two or three with only one legitimate top-six centerman and, potentially, a surplus of scoring wingers? Suppose we get Kakko. And suppose Zadina breaks out next season. Add them to Mantha, Athanasiou, Bertuzzi, Rasmussen. That's a group of wingers that could carry a team into the playoffs through sheer force of talent alone, provided your center group isn't Larkin, Nielsen, Glendening, de la Rose. *shudder*

So I can appreciate both sides of the Duchene argument.

[mackel 679]

On 2/7/2019 at 12:47 PM, The 91 of Ryans said:

Blashill has shown plenty of signs that he's willing to play kids in the top 6 - 9 over vets. 

And Holland has made it clear he's evaluating Blashill based on youth development. 



So yeah, Nielsen on the 4th is no stretch and I'm sure the org. would be thrilled to have this problem 

Total Sidebar....

If we extend Blashill, does it follow that Holland remains as GM?  I think many people (including myself) would love to see Yzerman step in and take over as GM.  Would he be in on a resigning of Blash?  Would he only want the GM job if he had the ability to choose his own staff?

[kipwinger 8,522]

I have no idea, other than nostalgia, why anybody would want Yzerman over Holland.  Literally every single criticism of Holland is equally true of Yzerman as GM.  Plus, in case people aren't paying attention, our rebuild is actually going really really well. 

[kickazz 5,459]

6 hours ago, kipwinger said:

I have no idea, other than nostalgia, why anybody would want Yzerman over Holland.  Literally every single criticism of Holland is equally true of Yzerman as GM.  Plus, in case people aren't paying attention, our rebuild is actually going really really well. 

Really really well is exaggerating though; still no young goalie or top defensive player besides possibly 1 or 2 1B players in sight. Aka the defensive depth outside of Cholo, Hronek, MAYBE McIsaac, is a complete toss up. Larkin is a 2C at best so need a 1 center still. There’s still a lot of work that needs to be done and having a fresh perspective may help. Having said all this were still in a much better position than we were years ago. For instance our wingers are going to be really good. We should be set for 2-4 Center position easily for years to come. 

Far as Holland, GM tenure gets stale too not just coaches. It’s why Lou leaving Jersey for Toronto was probably a good thing for Toronto and now even the Islanders.

Let’s say Holland decided to part ways this summer and we were looking for a new GM, objectively speaking, Yzerman would still be a top candidate even if didn’t have the Red Wing history/nostalgia on his resume. He’s got a good track record as a GM and is a top candidate to fill any teams position at the moment. 

Edited February 10, 2019 by kickazz

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

6 minutes ago, kickazz said:

Really really well is exaggerating though; still no young goalie or top defensive player besides possibly 1 or 2 1B players in sight. Larkin is a 2C at best so need a 1 center still. There’s still a lot of work that needs to be done and having a fresh perspective may help. 

GM tenure gets stale too not just coaches. It’s why Lou leaving Jersey for Toronto was probably a good thing for Toronto and now even the Islanders.

Let’s say Holland decided to part ways this summer and we were looking for a new GM, Yzerman would still be a top candidate even if didn’t have the Red Wing history on his resume. He’s got a good track record.

Ya let’s ignore the fact he turned Tampa into the top team in the league before leaving 

[Dabura 12,207]

6 hours ago, kickazz said:

Larkin is a 2C at best so need a 1 center still.

I think at this point it's pretty safe to say he's a 1C. Maybe not an absolutely ideal 1C, but he can get the job done (with almost no help around him). 23 goals and 52 points in 54 games = 1C production.

I agree with your overall point tho. Saying the rebuild is going "really, really well" is probably overstating things a bit.

[krsmith17 7,191]

5 hours ago, kickazz said:

Really really well is exaggerating though; still no young goalie or top defensive player besides possibly 1 or 2 1B players in sight. Aka the defensive depth outside of Cholo, Hronek, MAYBE McIsaac, is a complete toss up. Larkin is a 2C at best so need a 1 center still. There’s still a lot of work that needs to be done and having a fresh perspective may help. Having said all this were still in a much better position than we were years ago. For instance our wingers are going to be really good. We should be set for 2-4 Center position easily for years to come. 

Far as Holland, GM tenure gets stale too not just coaches. It’s why Lou leaving Jersey for Toronto was probably a good thing for Toronto and now even the Islanders.

Let’s say Holland decided to part ways this summer and we were looking for a new GM, objectively speaking, Yzerman would still be a top candidate even if didn’t have the Red Wing history/nostalgia on his resume. He’s got a good track record as a GM and is a top candidate to fill any teams position at the moment. 

We have plenty "young goalies", just none that are close yet. I would say that any of Larsson, Petruzzelli or Eliasson have as good a shot as any young goalie prospect to become a quality NHL starter. Projecting goalies is near impossible, but I would say the probability of at least one of those three panning out is fairly high.

I don't know how there's anyone still questioning Larkin being a legit 1C. He's not elite, but he absolutely is a number one center in the league. He's among the top 20-30 centers in just about every category, despite having relatively weak linemates. Imagine what he'd be able to do with an elite winger like Kucherov or Pastrnak. Hopefully he'll have one over the next couple years in Zadina, or Hughes / Kakko. He's still only 22 years old. Give him another year or two to continue his development, and some help on his wings, and he'll be over a point per game player for sure.

The biggest holes on this team right now in my opinion are top six right-handed sniper, 2nd line center, number one defenseman, and number one goalie. The top six right-handed sniper is not currently in the system, so we'll have to acquire one through the draft, free agency or trade. I don't think the number one defenseman is in the system, but teams have proven they can win without an elite, number one defenseman, as long as they have four or five really good defensemen. I think we should have three in the three that you mentioned, and maybe the other is in the system as well, or maybe we'll get one in the upcoming draft. I think Veleno will become our number two center, and like I mentioned above, I think one of the goalie prospects currently in the system will develop into a number one goaltender.

Holland has done a fantastic job the past couple years acquiring picks for the future. We had four picks in the top 36 last year and hopefully we'll have a similar number after the trade deadline again this year. If we can acquire another one or two picks in the top 40, and get lucky in the draft lottery (both likely), I really like our chances of filling another couple of those holes.

[kipwinger 8,522]

9 hours ago, kickazz said:

Really really well is exaggerating though; still no young goalie or top defensive player besides possibly 1 or 2 1B players in sight. Aka the defensive depth outside of Cholo, Hronek, MAYBE McIsaac, is a complete toss up. Larkin is a 2C at best so need a 1 center still. There’s still a lot of work that needs to be done and having a fresh perspective may help. Having said all this were still in a much better position than we were years ago. For instance our wingers are going to be really good. We should be set for 2-4 Center position easily for years to come. 

Far as Holland, GM tenure gets stale too not just coaches. It’s why Lou leaving Jersey for Toronto was probably a good thing for Toronto and now even the Islanders.

Let’s say Holland decided to part ways this summer and we were looking for a new GM, objectively speaking, Yzerman would still be a top candidate even if didn’t have the Red Wing history/nostalgia on his resume. He’s got a good track record as a GM and is a top candidate to fill any teams position at the moment. 

If we had every single piece we needed to contend then the rebuild would be complete and we wouldn't be having this conversation.  We've got a very good up and coming team, with lots of talent at all positions (maybe outside of goalie).  And Holland was able to do so without a single top five pick.  That's pretty good work. 

9 hours ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Ya let’s ignore the fact he turned Tampa into the top team in the league before leaving 

Next you'll give him credit for building the Canadian Olympic team. 

Yzerman has done a fine job.  But his job was made 100 percent easier by the fact that Stamkos and Hedman were already on the team when took the job.  It's also worth noting that people have criticized Holland for years for already having Yzerman, Fedorov, and Lidstrom on the team when he became GM, which is true. But at least he won with the team he inherited.  Stevie is still a little light on Cup wins as a GM for people to gush over him the way they do.

Edited February 10, 2019 by kipwinger

[kickazz 5,459]

4 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

We have plenty "young goalies", just none that are close yet. I would say that any of Larsson, Petruzzelli or Eliasson have as good a shot as any young goalie prospect to become a quality NHL starter. Projecting goalies is near impossible, but I would say the probability of at least one of those three panning out is fairly high.

I don't know how there's anyone still questioning Larkin being a legit 1C. He's not elite, but he absolutely is a number one center in the league. He's among the top 20-30 centers in just about every category, despite having relatively weak linemates. Imagine what he'd be able to do with an elite winger like Kucherov or Pastrnak. Hopefully he'll have one over the next couple years in Zadina, or Hughes / Kakko. He's still only 22 years old. Give him another year or two to continue his development, and some help on his wings, and he'll be over a point per game player for sure.

The biggest holes on this team right now in my opinion are top six right-handed sniper, 2nd line center, number one defenseman, and number one goalie. The top six right-handed sniper is not currently in the system, so we'll have to acquire one through the draft, free agency or trade. I don't think the number one defenseman is in the system, but teams have proven they can win without an elite, number one defenseman, as long as they have four or five really good defensemen. I think we should have three in the three that you mentioned, and maybe the other is in the system as well, or maybe we'll get one in the upcoming draft. I think Veleno will become our number two center, and like I mentioned above, I think one of the goalie prospects currently in the system will develop into a number one goaltender.

Holland has done a fantastic job the past couple years acquiring picks for the future. We had four picks in the top 36 last year and hopefully we'll have a similar number after the trade deadline again this year. If we can acquire another one or two picks in the top 40, and get lucky in the draft lottery (both likely), I really like our chances of filling another couple of those holes.

With all the tools that we do have in the system, we could get a new GM who is willing to speed things up through trades and free agency and turn the rebuild pretty quick. 

It’s like the “stale voice” that I mentioned. When a new guy comes in he’s almost expected to do something different just like any new CEO during a company turnover would. 

We’ve got some pieces available, some promising players, bring a new guy in and let’s get fancy with it.

Edited February 10, 2019 by kickazz