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LeftWinger

2018-2019 Opening Night Roster - Dedicated to BlueAdams!

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In order for this team to land Jack Hughes in next year's draft we're going to need a lot of luck. With or without Zetterberg, this team is not close to the worst in the division, let alone the league. We're not finishing dead last, so we would need the lottery balls to fall our way, ala Philly last year and Carolina this year. I think we'll have another top ten pick, hopefully top three, but don't expect number one.

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7 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

In order for this team to land Jack Hughes in next year's draft we're going to need a lot of luck. With or without Zetterberg, this team is not close to the worst in the division, let alone the league. We're not finishing dead last, so we would need the lottery balls to fall our way, ala Philly last year and Carolina this year. I think we'll have another top ten pick, hopefully top three, but don't expect number one.

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PLAYOFFS 2019

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Yeah I think Ottawa will be the worst team in the league. If Carey Price bounces back then Montreal should improve but Holland is trying to win and these teams are trying to lose. I respect this approach but it’s frustrating to watch these teams get rewarded. Wings only hope is for goaltending to really s*** the bed which is entirely possible. I still hate to see the young guys not lead to some form of team success. It’s a double edged sword

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On 8/13/2018 at 12:23 PM, krsmith17 said:

In order for this team to land Jack Hughes in next year's draft we're going to need a lot of luck. With or without Zetterberg, this team is not close to the worst in the division, let alone the league.

I'm not expecting the Wings to finish dead last in the league, but it wouldn't shock me if they did. Because, really, which teams are unequivocally inferior to the Wings on paper? At this point in time, I don't feel comfortable saying any one of Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver, Arizona is thoroughly outclassed by the Wings. (Also, remember: Colorado owns Ottawa's 2019 1st. So, I might pump the brakes on the "Ottawa is determined to finish dead last" narrative.)

It also wouldn't shock me if the Wings finished just barely outside the playoff picture or even just barely inside it. I'm really not sure what to expect from this team this season. And that excites me.

On 8/13/2018 at 12:33 PM, joesuffP said:

Holland is trying to win and these teams are trying to lose.

Every GM is trying to win. The only thing Holland is stubbornly refusing to do is a complete teardown. Which, to me, is fine. Considering some of the trades Holland has pulled off recently and the hugely successful draft he just ran, and considering we're only about a season and a half into this rebuild effort, I'd say we're in a pretty good place. Personally, all I need to hear from Holland is that his focus has shifted from the present to the future. He's explicitly stated that's the case, and the way he's been stockpiling draft picks proves it, so I'm content. That's just me, though. I get that not everyone feels this way and I respect that.

On 8/13/2018 at 12:33 PM, joesuffP said:

I respect this approach but it’s frustrating to watch these teams get rewarded.

Eichel and Dahlin are Buffalo's reward for being awful for years and years. McDavid is Edmonton's reward for being awful for years and years. Matthews is Toronto's reward for refusing to commit to a rebuild for years and years -- and even when they did commit, they didn't get Matthews in their first rebuild draft. Andrei Svechnikov is Carolina's reward for being perpetually bad. New Jersey had to endure some trying years before they got lucky in the draft and landed Hischier. Kevin Cheveldayoff has been extremely patient; Winnipeg didn't get all of Connor, Ehlers, Laine, Trouba, Hellebuyck, Morrissey, Scheifele in one draft. Arizona's been bad for a good long while now and they've picked 1st overall exactly zero times.

If anything, non-Wings fans should be complaining about the Wings being rewarded with Zadina and Veleno and Berggren and McIsaac after only two bottom-ten finishes.

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15 minutes ago, Dabura said:

I'm not expecting the Wings to finish dead last in the league, but it wouldn't shock me if they did. Because, really, which teams are unequivocally inferior to the Wings on paper? At this point in time, I don't feel comfortable saying any one of Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver, Arizona is thoroughly outclassed by the Wings. (Also, remember: Colorado owns Ottawa's 2019 1st. So, I might pump the brakes on the "Ottawa is determined to finish dead last" narrative.)

It also wouldn't shock me if the Wings finished just barely outside the playoff picture or even just barely inside it. I'm really not sure what to expect from this team this season. And that excites me.

Every GM is trying to win. The only thing Holland is stubbornly refusing to do is a complete teardown. Which, to me, is fine. Considering some of the trades Holland has pulled off recently and the hugely successful draft he just ran, and considering we're only about a season and a half into this rebuild effort, I'd say we're in a pretty good place. Personally, all I need to hear from Holland is that his focus has shifted from the present to the future. He's explicitly stated that's the case, and the way he's been stockpiling draft picks proves it, so I'm content. That's just me, though. I get that not everyone feels this way and I respect that.

Eichel and Dahlin are Buffalo's reward for being awful for years and years. McDavid is Edmonton's reward for being awful for years and years. Matthews is Toronto's reward for refusing to commit to a rebuild for years and years -- and even when they did commit, they didn't get Matthews in their first rebuild draft. Andrei Svechnikov is Carolina's reward for being perpetually bad. New Jersey had to endure some trying years before they got lucky in the draft and landed Hischier. Kevin Cheveldayoff has been extremely patient; Winnipeg didn't get all of Connor, Ehlers, Laine, Trouba, Hellebuyck, Morrissey, Scheifele in one draft. Arizona's been bad for a good long while now and they've picked 1st overall exactly zero times.

If anything, non-Wings fans should be complaining about the Wings being rewarded with Zadina and Veleno and Berggren and McIsaac after only two bottom-ten finishes.

Colorado owning Ottawas 1st has been somewhat flying under the radar around the league.

I think Ottawa will give it their all to try and compete this year, but IMO I'm fairly confident they're gonna finish close to last if not dead last.

If that's the case HOLY f*** did the Avs get a gift horse. Bednar has them back in the playoffs, MacKinnon was on pace for over 100 pts last season, Rantanen was over a point per game at 21 years old, they still have a lot of decent young player who are gonna get better, a ton of cap space, goaltending is soldified, AND they might get a top 5 pick.

Landeskog is a dirty player and Colorado is full of hipster dooshers. f*** those guys amirite?

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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1 hour ago, Dabura said:

I'm not expecting the Wings to finish dead last in the league, but it wouldn't shock me if they did. Because, really, which teams are unequivocally inferior to the Wings on paper? At this point in time, I don't feel comfortable saying any one of Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver, Arizona is thoroughly outclassed by the Wings. (Also, remember: Colorado owns Ottawa's 2019 1st. So, I might pump the brakes on the "Ottawa is determined to finish dead last" narrative.)

It also wouldn't shock me if the Wings finished just barely outside the playoff picture or even just barely inside it. I'm really not sure what to expect from this team this season. And that excites me.

I'd be shocked if the Wings finish dead last this season. I think they will finish higher in the standings than they did this past season. I just hope we manage to get lucky in the draft lottery...

If anything, Ottawa are determined to NOT finish dead last. Unfortunately for them, no matter how hard they try, I think they will finish bottom of the barrel, behind Detroit. I think they will try so hard to fix things this season, to not have to give up a top pick to Colorado, that they'll end up making things worse. That team is a mess, and we haven't seen the worst of them yet.

The bold I agree with, along with everything else you said in response to joesuffP.

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1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Colorado owning Ottawas 1st has been somewhat flying under the radar around the league.

I think Ottawa will give it their all to try and compete this year, but IMO I'm fairly confident they're gonna finish close to last if not dead last.

A lot of questions, variables. How many of their top players are traded? When exactly are they traded? What are they traded for?

Do Stone and Karlsson play out of their minds, because "Moneymoneymoney" and "Get me the hell out of here"? Does Anderson have a big rebound season, because Anderson? Do the Sens surprise everyone and overachieve, because Sens?

I agree that they're the early favorite to finish 31st overall (with Vancouver being a close second). But I guess what I'm trying to say is the Wings aren't clearly better than any other team.

1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

If that's the case HOLY f*** did the Avs get a gift horse. Bednar has them back in the playoffs, MacKinnon was on pace for over 100 pts last season, Rantanen was over a point per game at 21 years old, they still have a lot of decent young player who are gonna get better, a ton of cap space, goaltending is soldified, AND they might get a top 5 pick.

Landeskog is a dirty player and Colorado is full of hipster dooshers. f*** those guys amirite?

I'm starting to hate the Avs again.

O Avs Hatred, how I have missed you.

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9 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I'd be shocked if the Wings finish dead last this season. I think they will finish higher in the standings than they did this past season. I just hope we manage to get lucky in the draft lottery...

We lost so many one-goal games this past season that slight improvement is probably the safest bet. At the same time, Z's health and our garbage D corps could easily sink us. It's shaping up to be a pretty interesting season...

Like you, my big hope -- beyond the younger roster players having big seasons -- is that we get lucky in the 2019 draft, even if we finish dead last in the league.

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1 hour ago, Dabura said:

We lost so many one-goal games this past season that slight improvement is probably the safest bet. At the same time, Z's health and our garbage D corps could easily sink us. It's shaping up to be a pretty interesting season...

Like you, my big hope -- beyond the younger roster players having big seasons -- is that we get lucky in the 2019 draft, even if we finish dead last in the league.

It's like when the Lions were horrendously bad in the 2000s. Oh we only lost by 10! JK even we're not that bad...yet and hopefully ever. 

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So in the past 2 seasons Ottawa has lost:

  1. Phaneuf
  2. Turris
  3. Hoffman
  4. Brassard
  5. Macarthur
  6. Multiple more minor players (Neil, Burrows, Wingels, Stalberg, etc. etc.)

And they're now suddenly on the verge of losing:

  1. Karlsson
  2. Duchene
  3. Stone
  4. Ceci

Who have they brought in to fill holes? Gaborik? Odyua? Bodker?

Underrated team implosion IMO

 

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16 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

IMO if I was a senators fan, this is what would make me the most livid. Even more than possibly losing Karlsson. No contest. 

It's the nail in the coffin. My brain always goes "well at least they'll have a high draft selec...oh f*** nvm"

Looking back the moves they made look so dumb. They make a lateral move swapping out Turris for Duchene, and manage to lose a 1st in the process, and now Duchene is probably gone too.

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4 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

It's the nail in the coffin. My brain always goes "well at least they'll have a high draft selec...oh f*** nvm"

Looking back the moves they made look so dumb. They make a lateral move swapping out Turris for Duchene, and manage to lose a 1st in the process, and now Duchene is probably gone too.

Yep. If you put the three dumbest people on HFboards in charge of the Sens they'd have a hard time f8cking things up this bad. 

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1 hour ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

IMO if I was a senators fan, this is what would make me the most livid. Even more than possibly losing Karlsson. No contest. 

Ya, they had the choice of giving Colorado the 2018 or 2019 pick. I wonder if they had to choose before the lottery draft? If so, then maybe I could understand keeping the 2018 pick in hopes of landing Dahlin, but if they choose AFTER they didn't get #1 and still kept the 2018, yikes! Even though Tkachuk is good, but is he possible Jack Hughes worth? Heck, I venture to say that the Craig Button Top 5 as it stands today are ALL better than Tkachuk. IMO, if they chose after the lottery results, they absolutely should've given Colorado the 2018 pick. Ottawa is a dumpster fire.

Welcome to Detroit EK! We have to shed tons of salary this TDL so we can offer him the max! Screw it, here is the July 2019 UFA Day mantra: All In for Karlsson!

 

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2 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

IMO if I was a senators fan, this is what would make me the most livid. Even more than possibly losing Karlsson. No contest. 

I agree. If they win the lottery next year (they will likely have the best odds), and Colorado gets Hughes, this will go down as one of the worst trades in NHL history.

1 hour ago, LeftWinger said:

Ya, they had the choice of giving Colorado the 2018 or 2019 pick. I wonder if they had to choose before the lottery draft? If so, then maybe I could understand keeping the 2018 pick in hopes of landing Dahlin, but if they choose AFTER they didn't get #1 and still kept the 2018, yikes! Even though Tkachuk is good, but is he possible Jack Hughes worth? Heck, I venture to say that the Craig Button Top 5 as it stands today are ALL better than Tkachuk. IMO, if they chose after the lottery results, they absolutely should've given Colorado the 2018 pick. Ottawa is a dumpster fire.

Welcome to Detroit EK! We have to shed tons of salary this TDL so we can offer him the max! Screw it, here is the July 2019 UFA Day mantra: All In for Karlsson!

Dorion had right up until the moment before the pick was made to decide if he wanted to make it or hand it off to Sakic. F***ing moron. Sure, there's a chance that they don't win the lottery next year, but I think they'll have the best odds, and to risk that for... Tkatchuk, is beyond stupid...

I said it before, the Sens have been the laughing stock of the league for the past year or so, and they haven't even hit rock bottom yet. I see things getting MUCH worse in the next year. Worst run professional sports team I can think of...

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3 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

Welcome to Detroit EK! We have to shed tons of salary this TDL so we can offer him the max! Screw it, here is the July 2019 UFA Day mantra: All In for Karlsson!

If he goes UFA, we go all in for him. Absolutely.

Unfortunately, money would probably be our only major selling point. If Karlsson's looking to join a really good team that he could, theoretically, put over the top, we're not getting him. (Jack Hughes could change that. Maybe.) I also wonder if he wouldn't see "playing in the shadow of Lidstrom" and "inheriting Zetterberg's leadership mantle" as turnoffs.

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4 minutes ago, Dabura said:

If he goes UFA, we go all in for him. Absolutely.

Unfortunately, money would probably be our only major selling point. If Karlsson's looking to join a really good team that he could, theoretically, put over the top, we're not getting him. (Jack Hughes could change that. Maybe.) I also wonder if he wouldn't see "playing in the shadow of Lidstrom" and "inheriting Zetterberg's leadership mantle" as turnoffs.

Broberg may change that as well. Hughes is the hands down #1, but if we drafted him, where would that put Larkin? He may emerge as a legit 80-90 scorer (or more) with Zadina and Mantha (or Rasmussen) on his wing(s.)

If you get the #1, absolutely you draft Hughes (as of now) but what would that #1 bring in trade? Could we get a different top 5 PLUS the top D-Man we covet in trade return? Here's this idea. Carolina will probably be a lottery team again, they have one 1st and two 2nds. We win the lottery, trade them the #1 (Hughes presumably) and Svech for Hamilton, their 1st and their two 2nd's. Assuming they are in the top 5 lottery win and also finish bottom 5. Their other 2nd is from Buffalo, who can also be assumed they will finish very low. We'd have Hamilton, top 5 1st, two top 10 2nds (along with our two (Ours and Isles) which will most likely also be top 10 2nd.) That will look like this:

Hamilton, top 5 1st rounder, FOUR  2nd rounders between #32-#41!!! PLUS we draft for NEED in the 1st and go balls out for Karlsson. Possible top 3 D Broberg, Karlsson, Hamilton.

I really do think Carolina would drool and pay up for a possible line of: Svech-Hughes-Svechling. They could keep Faulk and they still have Bean in the minors.

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16 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

Hughes is the hands down #1, but if we drafted him, where would that put Larkin? He may emerge as a legit 80-90 scorer (or more) with Zadina and Mantha (or Rasmussen) on his wing(s.)

Then we have an outstanding 1-2 punch at center.

16 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

If you get the #1, absolutely you draft Hughes (as of now) but what would that #1 bring in trade?

There's no way we'd trade the first overall pick. Certainly not for Hamilton and some picks.

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Sorry, I was kinda terse in my previous message.

Re: Larkin & Hughes --

Ideally, we emerge from this rebuild with an elite 1C, a 2C who'd be a 1C on many other teams, and a 3C who'd be a 2C on many other teams. (And the same idea with the top four on the back end.) Like I always say: depth wins cups, and a team is only as deep as its top talent allows it to be. So, in theory, it'd be something like Hughes-Larkin-Veleno/Rasmussen, where Hughes is "elite, elite," Larkin is 1C-caliber but playing second fiddle to Hughes because Hughes is just that good, and Veleno/Rasmussen is top-six-caliber but not quite as good as Larkin. It's not exactly Crosby-Malkin-Staal/Bonino/Brassard or Matthews-Tavares-Kadri, but it's the same idea and in the same ballpark of crazy depth.

tl;dr Larkin scoring 80-90 points as our 2C is the stuff dreams -- and championships -- are made of.

Having said all that...

Re: The trade value of the first overall pick in the 2019 draft (AKA Jack Hughes) --

It'd have to be an incredible offer. Like, too good to be true. Dougie Hamilton + 1st + a couple of 2nds doesn't come anywhere close; Jack Hughes is much more valuable than Dougie Hamilton -- and what good are picks if you're giving up pretty much the most valuable pick a team can get (outside of a pick that gets you a Connor McDavid)?

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2 hours ago, Dabura said:

Re: The trade value of the first overall pick in the 2019 draft (AKA Jack Hughes) --

It'd have to be an incredible offer. Like, too good to be true. Dougie Hamilton + 1st + a couple of 2nds doesn't come anywhere close; Jack Hughes is much more valuable than Dougie Hamilton -- and what good are picks if you're giving up pretty much the most valuable pick a team can get (outside of a pick that gets you a Connor McDavid)?

Question is where on the Yakupov-Crosby scale do you think Hughes will fall. 

It would have to be fairly high or Carolina wouldn't consider it, so at least a Matthews or Tavares. While from our end, a Crosby/Ovie/McDavid level would be too high a price. 

Now, assuming the 1st coming back was top-5, and we could expect something like Hanifin/Johansen, I'd say yes at Tavares, still no at McDavid, and at Stamkos I'd have to dig in to what I thought the 2nds would be worth.

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2 hours ago, Buppy said:

Question is where on the Yakupov-Crosby scale do you think Hughes will fall. 

It would have to be fairly high or Carolina wouldn't consider it, so at least a Matthews or Tavares. While from our end, a Crosby/Ovie/McDavid level would be too high a price. 

Now, assuming the 1st coming back was top-5, and we could expect something like Hanifin/Johansen, I'd say yes at Tavares, still no at McDavid, and at Stamkos I'd have to dig in to what I thought the 2nds would be worth.

Fair point.

Maybe the Wings aren't high enough on Hughes that they'd need an impossibly good offer. And maybe there are teams that are high enough on him that they're willing to give us more than we feel he's worth to us, and so we move the pick. Personally, I'm high enough on Hughes that it's hard for me to envision these conditions being met. But, again, maybe the Wings don't actually share that enthusiasm. It's possible, if unlikely.

If I rate Hughes as "generational" (e.g. McDavid), I don't move him for anything.

If I rate Hughes as a non-"generational" superstar franchise player (e.g. Stamkos)... I would really need to be blown away by the offer. [Hanifin-caliber young player] + top-5 pick + early 2nd + early 2nd wouldn't do it for me...unless, perhaps, I'm high enough on someone else in the 2019 draft class that I feel the trade package is easily more valuable to my team than a Stamkos-caliber player by himself is.

If I rate Hughes as not-quite-a-Stamkos-but-not-too-far-off (e.g. Seguin), I might accept a top-5 pick + [young player who I'm over-the-moon about]. But that young player who I'm over the moon about would be, like, an Ivan Provorov, i.e. probably an untouchable. ...Unless, again, I'm high enough on someone else in the 2019 draft class that I feel the trade package is easily more valuable to my team than a Seguin-caliber player by himself is.

If I rate Hughes as really-good-but-maybe-not-quite-Seguin-tier (e.g. Larkin), then I'm actively shopping the pick.

---

It's still early days, but if Hughes takes a big step forward in his draft year (and he very likely will), we could be looking at someone comparable to Auston Matthews. If I had to put Matthews into one of the above classes (tough call because he's still so young), I'd say he's Stamkos-caliber. So, if Hughes is flashing that kind of potential in his draft year and I -- the Red Wings -- am quite certain he can reach those heights...and I feel Hughes is much better than any and all of his draft class peers...then that pick is only getting moved if someone makes me an offer I can't refuse. I take the player I feel is going to be a powerhouse centerman over the collection of picks and the good-not-great young roster player.

Edited by Dabura

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My initial impression of J Hughes is a good one. I was a Bouchard guy for most of last year, occasionally beating the Tkachuk drum, but I really changed my mind last second to Quinn Hughes (watched a lot of video draft week). Q Hughes is gonna be a great Dman, I like to think he plays the hold-on-to-the-puck Karlsson/Dahlin style offensive Dman game that I'm coming to appreciate more. Kids got mad speed and puck control for a Dman. Anyway, they're saying J Hughes is much better than his brother Quinn. If that's true he's probably real gud IMO. Maybe an 80 pt forward (aren't they shrinking the goalie pads soon?) IDK I haven't watched him play yet. Just measuring hype levels.

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10 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

My initial impression of J Hughes is a good one. I was a Bouchard guy for most of last year, occasionally beating the Tkachuk drum, but I really changed my mind last second to Quinn Hughes (watched a lot of video draft week). Q Hughes is gonna be a great Dman, I like to think he plays the hold-on-to-the-puck Karlsson/Dahlin style offensive Dman game that I'm coming to appreciate more. Kids got mad speed and puck control for a Dman. Anyway, they're saying J Hughes is much better than his brother Quinn. If that's true he's probably real gud IMO. Maybe an 80 pt forward (aren't they shrinking the goalie pads soon?) IDK I haven't watched him play yet. Just measuring hype levels.

He good. He real good.

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11 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Quinn's acceleration is off the charts.  He separates from traffic faster than anyone in the draft, including Dahlin.  If he fills out, he could be the best pick in that class.

Imagine having Hughes - Larkin - Veleno - Turgeon as our four centers... Talk about speed down the middle...

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