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2019 Draft

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2 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

The point I'm trying to illustrate is that Larkin entered the NHL full time at 19 and 3 months of age. He went on to score 23 goals and 45 pts that season. For a 15th overall pick that's pretty thrilling.

Comparatively, Zadina enter the AHL full time at 18 and 10 months of age. He went on to score 16 goals and 39 pts that season with a brief NHL callup. For a 6th overall pick, and when considering Larkin's performance at a similar age, It's a little disappointing.

And I think it's completely reasonable to be disappointed by this. He should be the best player we've drafted in a very long time, but he's already showing signs he may not be Larkin level material. And I think Larkin is a good measuring stick for our future stars.

Now he could very well just need time to develop. Kucherov didn't really become relevant in the league until he was 21. But then again, Kucherov was a 2nd round pick, and few teams or fans have expectations that a 2nd rounder can step right in to the league.

Larkin was a steal in his draft. If there were a 2014 re-draft, he would be a top 5, possibly top 3 pick. In saying that, I agree that Larkin should be used as somewhat of a measuring stick for our future stars. However, just because Zadina isn't where Larkin was at the same age, doesn't mean s*** to me. Zadina could still be as good or better in 2-3 years time. I'm not saying he will be, or even that I think he will be, just that he could be.

Larkin and Zadina have taken completely different paths to get to the NHL, so why should we expect the same results right out of the gate? And who's to say, Zadina wouldn't have had similar numbers if he played a full season in the NHL? I watched quite a few Griffins games this past season, and I know for a fact that Zadina was often a victim of circumstance. I lost count of the number of times he made plays that his lines mates couldn't finish, or he was in the right place, and his linemates couldn't get him the puck. Maybe if he played a full season with Larkin (Zetterberg) in the NHL, he would have put up better numbers. Who knows?

Either way, to call Zadina a bust after one season is beyond f***ing stupid in my opinion...

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32 minutes ago, Mckinley25 said:

Wouldn’t years played and years played in specific levels/league be more determinate of development than age?  Further, is draft class not based the the former?  I haven’t seen any other analysis that favors the age metric until later in player’s careers when years in the league are too unevenly spread across players.  

Zadina is only 7 months younger than Ras, has experience in men's leagues unlike Ras, and outperformed Ras at the CHL level. By this I would say Zadina is the more developed player.

This is all speculation, but I think the plan was to start Zadina in the AHL, he would light the AHL up, and then get called up to join the Wings pretty quickly. Which is why the Wings made such a strong appeal to make him eligible for the AHL. They would potentially have an offensive dynamo they could call up at any moment if needed/wanted.

Well he didn't light up the AHL, and only earned himself 9 games in the NHL. The Wings by this also saved a year of waiver ineligibility on his contract. If they thought he was a player that would never be sent down again, like Larkin, they wouldn't have cared about this. So the exactly 9 game stint is a little telling as well in a way.

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9 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Larkin was a steal in his draft. If there were a 2014 re-draft, he would be a top 5, possibly top 3 pick. In saying that, I agree that Larkin should be used as somewhat of a measuring stick for our future stars. However, just because Zadina isn't where Larkin was at the same age, doesn't mean s*** to me. Zadina could still be as good or better in 2-3 years time. I'm not saying he will be, or even that I think he will be, just that he could be.

I agree Larkin would be Top5 in a re-draft, just like Zadina was a Top5 ranked player. Good measuring stick.

12 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Larkin and Zadina have taken completely different paths to get to the NHL, so why should we expect the same results right out of the gate? And who's to say, Zadina wouldn't have had similar numbers if he played a full season in the NHL? I watched quite a few Griffins games this past season, and I know for a fact that Zadina was often a victim of circumstance. I lost count of the number of times he made plays that his lines mates couldn't finish, or he was in the right place, and his linemates couldn't get him the puck. Maybe if he played a full season with Larkin (Zetterberg) in the NHL, he would have put up better numbers. Who knows?

Because he couldn't even put up great numbers in a lesser league. Larkin skipped the Grifs for good reason, he's that talented. I'm not gonna buy the his linemates let him down excuse thing either. His linemates outscored him for one and have been consistently some of the top end players in the AHL. Guys like Terry and Pimple.

18 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Either way, to call Zadina a bust after one season is beyond f***ing stupid in my opinion...

I'll leave it at this: Zadina's first season as pro was disappointing, just like Larkin's sophomore season was disappointing. That doesn't mean I think Larkin is a dumpster player.

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23 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Larkin was a steal in his draft. If there were a 2014 re-draft, he would be a top 5, possibly top 3 pick. In saying that, I agree that Larkin should be used as somewhat of a measuring stick for our future stars. However, just because Zadina isn't where Larkin was at the same age, doesn't mean s*** to me. Zadina could still be as good or better in 2-3 years time. I'm not saying he will be, or even that I think he will be, just that he could be.

Larkin and Zadina have taken completely different paths to get to the NHL, so why should we expect the same results right out of the gate? And who's to say, Zadina wouldn't have had similar numbers if he played a full season in the NHL? I watched quite a few Griffins games this past season, and I know for a fact that Zadina was often a victim of circumstance. I lost count of the number of times he made plays that his lines mates couldn't finish, or he was in the right place, and his linemates couldn't get him the puck. Maybe if he played a full season with Larkin (Zetterberg) in the NHL, he would have put up better numbers. Who knows?

Either way, to call Zadina a bust after one season is beyond f***ing stupid in my opinion...

Baiting/Bullying at its best.

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The first two are obvious.  It looks like Bowen has cemented himself into the three spot with a great playoff.  I haven't heard anything negative about Turcotte for a while so he goes four or five.  I have a hunch Dach goes next.  That leaves Cozins or Podkolzin for us. I like Cozins

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To be disappointed that Zadina didn't light up the AHL and get a call up to be full time for the Wings is totally reasonable. I wish that would've happened too.

However:

1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

Larkin was a steal in his draft. If there were a 2014 re-draft, he would be a top 5, possibly top 3 pick. In saying that, I agree that Larkin should be used as somewhat of a measuring stick for our future stars. However, just because Zadina isn't where Larkin was at the same age, doesn't mean s*** to me. Zadina could still be as good or better in 2-3 years time. I'm not saying he will be, or even that I think he will be, just that he could be.

Larkin and Zadina have taken completely different paths to get to the NHL, so why should we expect the same results right out of the gate? And who's to say, Zadina wouldn't have had similar numbers if he played a full season in the NHL? I watched quite a few Griffins games this past season, and I know for a fact that Zadina was often a victim of circumstance. I lost count of the number of times he made plays that his lines mates couldn't finish, or he was in the right place, and his linemates couldn't get him the puck. Maybe if he played a full season with Larkin (Zetterberg) in the NHL, he would have put up better numbers. Who knows?

Either way, to call Zadina a bust after one season is beyond f***ing stupid in my opinion...

Nailed it. 

Edited by Wheelchairsuperhero

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56 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Zadina is only 7 months younger than Ras, has experience in men's leagues unlike Ras, and outperformed Ras at the CHL level. By this I would say Zadina is the more developed player.

This is all speculation, but I think the plan was to start Zadina in the AHL, he would light the AHL up, and then get called up to join the Wings pretty quickly. Which is why the Wings made such a strong appeal to make him eligible for the AHL. They would potentially have an offensive dynamo they could call up at any moment if needed/wanted.

Well he didn't light up the AHL, and only earned himself 9 games in the NHL. The Wings by this also saved a year of waiver ineligibility on his contract. If they thought he was a player that would never be sent down again, like Larkin, they wouldn't have cared about this. So the exactly 9 game stint is a little telling as well in a way.

He "only earned 9 games in the NHL" because management wanted to slide his ELC. Sliding Zadina's ELC had absolutely nothing to do with waiver eligibility. They wanted to keep him under 10 games to get an extra year on the cheap, not because they think he'll still be in Grand Rapids in three years... 

43 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I agree Larkin would be Top5 in a re-draft, just like Zadina was a Top5 ranked player. Good measuring stick.

Because he couldn't even put up great numbers in a lesser league. Larkin skipped the Grifs for good reason, he's that talented. I'm not gonna buy the his linemates let him down excuse thing either. His linemates outscored him for one and have been consistently some of the top end players in the AHL. Guys like Terry and Pimple.

I'll leave it at this: Zadina's first season as pro was disappointing, just like Larkin's sophomore season was disappointing. That doesn't mean I think Larkin is a dumpster player.

You're not going to buy the his linemates let him down excuse, but you don't even know who his linemates were... His linemates Terry and Puempel? He never played any significant time with either of those players... He did play with Megan a fair bit, and they seemed to click a bit, but on the other wing was almost always a scrub line Ford, Campbell or Shine...

I disagree that Zadina's first season was a disappointment. I would have liked to see more out of him production wise, but I seen a lot of good things. I think he'll have a big 2019-20 season.

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3 hours ago, mackel said:

CRL please don't make valid points, please allow for revisionist rhetoric vis-a-vis Zadina...  please note that if the 6th (former projected top 3) pick tops out as a Tatar (60th) or Nyquist (121st) type player that isn't a bust.

These are the rules... If you don't follow them you run the risk of being bullied and called a troll.

You're a legendary troll, the whole victim thing you got going on right now is good stuff.

57 minutes ago, mackel said:

Baiting/Bullying at its best.

How so? You think Zadina's a bust after one season, that's stupid. 

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1. The whole comparing players and their draft positions is a fool's errand. If a guy drafted in the 3rd round turns into a 90 point player and a guy drafted in the top 10 turns into a 70 point player, does that make the 1st rounder a bust? That's silly reasoning IMO.

2. What are reasonable expectations for Zadina? I would argue a 30 goal/ 60 point player is reasonable IMO. If he becomes a 70 point or PPG guy, that's a bonus for me. Has anyone really seen enough at this point to say, with any reasonable argument, that he won't become that? I haven't. So let's be real, and wait for real evidence (not conjecture) before we declare anything, shall we?

3. Players develop at different rates. Comparing Zadina to Larkin is completely ridiculous. Some guys make the NHL right from the draft and never become more than average NHLers. They peaked sooner and everyone expected them to continue to progress. Other guys flounder in juniors, overseas, and/or the AHL for a couple seasons and manage to develop into superstars. They're late bloomers. Every guy is different. Comparisons are inaccurate and unfair.

30 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Z-Pinch will be good.  Dude still has zitinas.  Give him a break already.

FiFY. Maybe he should filiPinch them.

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50 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

1. The whole comparing players and their draft positions is a fool's errand. If a guy drafted in the 3rd round turns into a 90 point player and a guy drafted in the top 10 turns into a 70 point player, does that make the 1st rounder a bust? That's silly reasoning IMO.

2. What are reasonable expectations for Zadina? I would argue a 30 goal/ 60 point player is reasonable IMO. If he becomes a 70 point or PPG guy, that's a bonus for me. Has anyone really seen enough at this point to say, with any reasonable argument, that he won't become that? I haven't. So let's be real, and wait for real evidence (not conjecture) before we declare anything, shall we?

3. Players develop at different rates. Comparing Zadina to Larkin is completely ridiculous. Some guys make the NHL right from the draft and never become more than average NHLers. They peaked sooner and everyone expected them to continue to progress. Other guys flounder in juniors, overseas, and/or the AHL for a couple seasons and manage to develop into superstars. They're late bloomers. Every guy is different. Comparisons are inaccurate and unfair.

FiFY. Maybe he should filiPinch them.

Maybe?

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2 hours ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

To be disappointed that Zadina didn't light up the AHL and get a call up to be full time for the Wings is totally reasonable. I wish that would've happened too.

I really have different expectations for Zadina. This is actually kind of a new thing for myself and Wings fans in general I think, because we haven't had a player like this in a very long time. A player ranked top3/top5 in his draft class I mean.

With Larkin I didn't have these expectations, but he certainly would have been a top5 pick looking back now. So I think Larkin is a good measuring stick in the sort of play I expect of a player of this significance.

So far, I haven't been Larkin level impressed with Zadina's play yet. To me he looks like Tatar out there, only worse at defense, which I think Tatar was underrated at. 

 

2 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

He "only earned 9 games in the NHL" because management wanted to slide his ELC. Sliding Zadina's ELC had absolutely nothing to do with waiver eligibility. They wanted to keep him under 10 games to get an extra year on the cheap, not because they think he'll still be in Grand Rapids in three years..

My B on the waiver eligibility. You're 100% correct it is cause of the ELC slider, which I know. Dumb brain malfunction on my part.

My point remains the same though. If the player is good enough, like Larkin, you ignore the 9 game limit and play the player. I suspect the Red Wings would have loved for Zadina to have 45 pt rookie season this year with the main club. But he never really impressed at the AHL level to earn the callup.

2 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

You're not going to buy the his linemates let him down excuse, but you don't even know who his linemates were... His linemates Terry and Puempel? He never played any significant time with either of those players... He did play with Megan a fair bit, and they seemed to click a bit, but on the other wing was almost always a scrub line Ford, Campbell or Shine...

I suggest you check your facts on that one

Zadina combined with Terry for more points than any other player on the team. He spent a healthy amount of time with Terry, Megan, Turgeon, Camper, Holmstrom, Puemple, and Ford included. Hronek and Zadina also had really good chemistry despite Hronek only spending about 30 games in the AHL this year.

Zadina also had more than a few multi point games. And while I enjoy a player who can takeover games, there are some good stretches where he remained pointless in the AHL this year. I was expecting much more of a show of force from a player of his caliber in this regard.

Bear in mind as well, Zadina more than led his team in having a negative plu/minus. He's consistently on the ice during goals against more than anyone. And even though I don't put much stock in +/- his is alarmingly different than the rest of the teams and I'm starting to feel his defensive abilities leading into draft day were completely overrated.

2 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

I disagree that Zadina's first season was a disappointment. I would have liked to see more out of him production wise, but I seen a lot of good things. I think he'll have a big 2019-20 season.

I hope he does have a big year. In fact I hope he spends exactly zero time in the AHL this year. I would love to see how he sizes up to the rest of the NHL on a consistent basis.

1 hour ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

1. The whole comparing players and their draft positions is a fool's errand. If a guy drafted in the 3rd round turns into a 90 point player and a guy drafted in the top 10 turns into a 70 point player, does that make the 1st rounder a bust? That's silly reasoning IMO.

Well that's a s***ty comparison. Any player who hits 70+ pts in this league is coveted by all. And if you took a 90 pt player in the 3rd round these days your job is secured for life.

I have different expectations for Zadina than I do for say Jonatan Berggren. If Berggren just makes the team and contributes in any way that's a win. But a player like Zadina I wholly expect to become a keystone player soon. If Zadina tops out at a 60 pts a season level player, I will consider that a disappointing pick, and people will say Holland shoulda taken Hughes or something.

1 hour ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

2. What are reasonable expectations for Zadina? I would argue a 30 goal/ 60 point player is reasonable IMO. If he becomes a 70 point or PPG guy, that's a bonus for me. Has anyone really seen enough at this point to say, with any reasonable argument, that he won't become that? I haven't. So let's be real, and wait for real evidence (not conjecture) before we declare anything, shall we?

If he can consistently score in the high 60s or breach the 70s, and/or contribute 30+ goals a season my expectations will be satisfied.

1 hour ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

3. Players develop at different rates. Comparing Zadina to Larkin is completely ridiculous. Some guys make the NHL right from the draft and never become more than average NHLers. They peaked sooner and everyone expected them to continue to progress. Other guys flounder in juniors, overseas, and/or the AHL for a couple seasons and manage to develop into superstars. They're late bloomers. Every guy is different. Comparisons are inaccurate and unfair.

You're absolutely right. I made the comparison earlier to Kucherov, who didn't become relevant until he was 21. Now he dominates. Maybe Zadina is like Kucherov. Maybe Berggren is like Kucherov. The difference is I have much higher expectations for Zadina than I do for Berggren. If we had taken Kucherov at #6 in his draft year, I would have been disappointed by his production up until he turned 21. And I don't think it would be out of touch to feel that way in that scenario.

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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4 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

I just want a big ol' boat full of steelheads and marlin. 

Don't care how. 

Got ticketed by the department of natural resources one time for putting excessive weights and hooks on my line and dragging them over the backs of the fish. Snagging. 

And that was the day the government taught me: IT MATTERS HOW

Now I only catch fish the government mandated way

Thank you government

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1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I really have different expectations for Zadina. This is actually kind of a new thing for myself and Wings fans in general I think, because we haven't had a player like this in a very long time. A player ranked top3/top5 in his draft class I mean.

With Larkin I didn't have these expectations, but he certainly would have been a top5 pick looking back now. So I think Larkin is a good measuring stick in the sort of play I expect of a player of this significance.

So far, I haven't been Larkin level impressed with Zadina's play yet. To me he looks like Tatar out there, only worse at defense, which I think Tatar was underrated at. 

 

 

If he can consistently score in the high 60s or breach the 70s, and/or contribute 30+ goals a season my expectations will be satisfied.

 

Same.

I'm still pretty confident though. 

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1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Got ticketed by the department of natural resources one time for putting excessive weights and hooks on my line and dragging them over the backs of the fish. Snagging. 

And that was the day the government taught me: IT MATTERS HOW

Now I only catch fish the government mandated way

Thank you government

I thought a "jerking" motion was also required to be ticketed for that. Dont know how else they could say u were snagging fish.

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5 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I thought a "jerking" motion was also required to be ticketed for that. Dont know how else they could say u were snagging fish.

I to this day deny that any jerking motion every happened. Pennsylvania DNR disagreed with my interpretation of events.

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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8 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I really have different expectations for Zadina. This is actually kind of a new thing for myself and Wings fans in general I think, because we haven't had a player like this in a very long time. A player ranked top3/top5 in his draft class I mean.

With Larkin I didn't have these expectations, but he certainly would have been a top5 pick looking back now. So I think Larkin is a good measuring stick in the sort of play I expect of a player of this significance.

So far, I haven't been Larkin level impressed with Zadina's play yet. To me he looks like Tatar out there, only worse at defense, which I think Tatar was underrated at. 

It's completely reasonable to have higher expectations for a high draft pick. However, in my opinion, it's unreasonable to assume that just because he was a high draft pick that he was going to dominate a pro league in his first season as a teenager. He was one of the youngest players in the entire league. He finished 30th in rookie scoring, however the majority of the players ahead of him were one, two, three, plus years older than him. The only other '99 birthday in the top 30, was Martin Necas, and he's 10 months older and a year ahead in terms of when he was drafted. Taking all that into account, you should understand how dumb it is to assume he will be a bust...

9 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

My B on the waiver eligibility. You're 100% correct it is cause of the ELC slider, which I know. Dumb brain malfunction on my part.

My point remains the same though. If the player is good enough, like Larkin, you ignore the 9 game limit and play the player. I suspect the Red Wings would have loved for Zadina to have 45 pt rookie season this year with the main club. But he never really impressed at the AHL level to earn the callup.

Again, Larkin cracked the lineup in his draft +1 season, and like it or not, that does make a huge difference. There's also a huge difference in where the team was at 4 years ago when Larkin made it, compared to this past season when Zadina was trying to make it. 4 years ago the Red Wings were trying to keep the streak alive, and they felt that Larkin could help them do that. This past year, it was finally obvious that we were rebuilding, so there was no need to rush prospects.

9 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

If he can consistently score in the high 60s or breach the 70s, and/or contribute 30+ goals a season my expectations will be satisfied.

He will. Book it.

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On 5/15/2019 at 12:49 AM, krsmith17 said:

I think the only way the Avs or Kings would want to trade back a spot or two is if they don't want Byram. And if that's the case, no need to trade up. I want Byram over any other player (outside the top two), but I don't think I'd trade up, unless the cost were minimal (it wouldn't be).

With the Kings I agree, but the Avs are in a "Win now" mode, not tanking. If we offer them Green, our first and retain some salary for their 4th overall and 2nd - or 3rd round pick it's a reasonable offer in my eyes.

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25 minutes ago, derblaueClaus said:

With the Kings I agree, but the Avs are in a "Win now" mode, not tanking. If we offer them Green, our first and retain some salary for their 4th overall and 2nd - or 3rd round pick it's a reasonable offer in my eyes.

How’s taking mike green for a year instead of byram for 10-15 a better option? Don’t forget they also have Barrie who’s a ufa in 2020 so they might want to solidify the back end with byram/makar for the next decade 

I don’t think there’s any chance of byram being available for us , we’ll just take the best player available and move a forward when the time comes for a dhelp , unless we hit a homerun and get some d prospects like bjornfot etc... later  this draft and hope they turn into great d prospects 

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55 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

It's completely reasonable to have higher expectations for a high draft pick. However, in my opinion, it's unreasonable to assume that just because he was a high draft pick that he was going to dominate a pro league in his first season as a teenager. He was one of the youngest players in the entire league. He finished 30th in rookie scoring, however the majority of the players ahead of him were one, two, three, plus years older than him. The only other '99 birthday in the top 30, was Martin Necas, and he's 10 months older and a year ahead in terms of when he was drafted. Taking all that into account, you should understand how dumb it is to assume he will be a bust...

"He young, you dumb"

Got it.

No doubt he was one of the youngest players in the league. The Wings had to appeal to the league to get him the AHL at all. I like that Zadina's age is suddenly of interest now though.

The fact that he was only 30th in rookie scoring is even more deflating.

1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

Again, Larkin cracked the lineup in his draft +1 season, and like it or not, that does make a huge difference.

I have yet to be told how this makes a huge a difference.

1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

There's also a huge difference in where the team was at 4 years ago when Larkin made it, compared to this past season when Zadina was trying to make it. 4 years ago the Red Wings were trying to keep the streak alive, and they felt that Larkin could help them do that. This past year, it was finally obvious that we were rebuilding, so there was no need to rush prospects.

Not really. Zadina was "rushed" just as quickly as Larkin was. In fact at the date of Zadina's first game as a Red Wing he was almost the exact same age that Larkin was during his first game as a Red Wing.

The difference being, I think Larkin would have blown the wheels off the AHL if he was sent down after 9 games. In just the 6 AHL playoff games he was in in his first year he had 3 goals and 5 points. Disagree if you like.

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30 minutes ago, derblaueClaus said:

With the Kings I agree, but the Avs are in a "Win now" mode, not tanking. If we offer them Green, our first and retain some salary for their 4th overall and 2nd - or 3rd round pick it's a reasonable offer in my eyes.

Colorado might be willing to trade back a couple spots, but I don't think they'd have much interest in Mike Green. And it definitely doesn't make much sense from their perspective to give up the 4th AND a 2nd or 3rd round pick for the 6th and one season of a player that may or may not be healthy to start the season. If anything we would be the team giving up the additional pick(s) in that scenario.

Maybe this gets it done...

To DET: 2019 1st round pick (OTT) - 4th overall

To COL: 2019 1st round pick (DET) 6th overall, 2019 2nd round pick (NYI), 2020 3rd round pick (DET)

... but I'm not sure if I'd do make that trade.

I say take the best player available at 6 (hopefully Byram miraculously falls to us) or trade back a couple spots if there are multiple players we really like still on the board.

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11 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Colorado might be willing to trade back a couple spots, but I don't think they'd have much interest in Mike Green. And it definitely doesn't make much sense from their perspective to give up the 4th AND a 2nd or 3rd round pick for the 6th and one season of a player that may or may not be healthy to start the season. If anything we would be the team giving up the additional pick(s) in that scenario.

Maybe this gets it done...

To DET: 2019 1st round pick (OTT) - 4th overall

To COL: 2019 1st round pick (DET) 6th overall, 2019 2nd round pick (NYI), 2020 3rd round pick (DET)

... but I'm not sure if I'd do make that trade.

I say take the best player available at 6 (hopefully Byram miraculously falls to us) or trade back a couple spots if there are multiple players we really like still on the board.

Damn it, Krs.  You were doing good.

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