• Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

HoweFan

2019 Draft

Rate this topic

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Gustav Lindstrom is a nice comparison and all, I just don't put that much stock into it. Plenty of players score a lot in their draft year and go on to be nothing. Likewise, plenty of players score much less by comparison, and go on to become NHL offensive contributors. I don't think you can point at Lindstrom and say that's what Broberg is.

I also do not think we will be taking Broberg at 6, but I wouldn't care if we did.

I agree with you here. I think it's the wild west after Hughes and Kakko, and I would make a similar statement about almost all drafts. Broberg could be as high as 5 on some teams draft charts, and I think he could low as the 2nd round on others. I don't know, and I don't think Craig Button knows either.

What I think scouting reports are useful for is determining what kinda player you're getting.

If I recall correctly Lindstrom came to us described as a two-way Dman who makes a smart first pass, thinks the game well, and needed to improve his skating.

Broberg by every description I've read is an offensive Dman with great hands, likes to carry the puck up ice, blows by people with his speed, but is prone to defensive lapses and needs to work on his game in his own zone.

Similar stats in their draft years sure, but two very different players. When it comes to Broberg I've seen some calling into question his hockey IQ, which is to explain why he hasn't produced at times. But nobody seems to disagree that he has the raw talent and toolbox to score and produce points.

Based on all that I'd be much more concerned about Broberg's actual defensive play than his stat sheet in the SHL when drafting this player.

When I see comparisons, I again think style of play, not end result. I remember Jarnkrok being compared to Zetterberg and Tvrdon being compared to Hossa. I didn't take that to mean they'd end up with the success of either of those players, just that Jarnkrok was a smart playmaking two-way centerman, and Tvrdon was a defensively sound winger who could score.

Broberg reads to me like a boom/bust prospect. Could be really good, could be really bad. And I agree that because he didn't have a better year this year he'll likely fall outside of the top10 or even top15. He still may very well be the 2nd Dman taken though, and for good reason. 

You're doing the same thing people used to do with Brendan Smith.  You can't be an "offensive" defenseman if you don't contribute much offensively.  Or, if one insists on saying he's "offensive" stylistically then he's not a very good offensive defenseman.  I bring up Lindstrom's stats, and their similarities, because nobody would call Lindstrom an "offensive" defenseman despite the fact that he produces just as much offense as Broberg (whom everyone calls offensive). So why is one "offensive" and the other isn't?  

I agree with your characterization of Broberg's skills.  By all accounts he's very fast, big, and all that.  But NONE of that has helped him score very much.  And if he's as bad defensively as you suggest, and he doesn't have a history of producing much offense then why the hell would anybody want him this high in the draft?  Because despite his track record we're just SURE he's going to break out when he gets to the SEL, or the AHL, or the NHL?  Seems like a bad bet to me.  Especially for a rebuilding team with a high pick in a deep draft. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not *quite* as high on Broberg as some people are, but I do think it's worth pointing out that he's relatively young; like Podkolzin, he doesn't turn 18 until a few days after the draft. I can tell you from experience that being as tall a defenseman as he is at his age can mess with your processing and coordination, i.e. it might take him some time to "grow into his body." (Jiri Fischer struggled through something along those lines, if memory serves.) That might account for some of his perceived shortcomings re: puck skill, IQ, shooting accuracy.

I do believe Broberg has the capacity for beastliness at the NHL level. I don't have to squint my mind's eye too hard to envision a 26-year-old Broberg playing forward some nights and defense some other nights (and switching effortlessly between the two on any given shift, as assignments dictate) and running a dangerous PP unit and creating shorthanded opportunities on the PK and just generally roving around like a boss. I'd hope for something like Hedman, Burns, Seabrook, Trouba. Realistically tho, it's probably closer to, like, Mathieu Dandenault.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Dabura said:

I'm not *quite* as high on Broberg as some people are, but I do think it's worth pointing out that he's relatively young;...

Yeah, could look at Boqvist last year as a comparable situation. Hardly produced at all at the SHL/Allsvensken level, but was a point/game at the JR level. Comes to NA, and scores a point/game in the OHL. Not hard to imagine that Broberg might have more offense than he's shown. I'd be a little more concerned by some saying he occasionally tries to do too much/make plays he doesn't have the skill for, resulting in bad decisions/turnovers.

Smith jokes aside though, I'd consider him if we were to trade down to say 9 or 11. Wouldn't be my top choice, but close enough to be OK with it. But at 6 with at least one of Turcotte, Byram, Zegras, or Cozens guaranteed to be there...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, kipwinger said:

You're doing the same thing people used to do with Brendan Smith.  You can't be an "offensive" defenseman if you don't contribute much offensively.  Or, if one insists on saying he's "offensive" stylistically then he's not a very good offensive defenseman.  I bring up Lindstrom's stats, and their similarities, because nobody would call Lindstrom an "offensive" defenseman despite the fact that he produces just as much offense as Broberg (whom everyone calls offensive). So why is one "offensive" and the other isn't? 

Whoa hey now, I think it was you and I who spear-headed the Smith sucks campaign on this board.

I'll say this, I was hopeful with Smitty early on as much as anyone was. But by the time 2014 or so rolled around I accepted that he was trash. I have much different attitudes about 24/25 year old players than I do 17/18 year olds. I'm a lot more lenient and understanding of a player exhibiting unconfirmed potential at 18 than I am a pro playing at 24.

I think you're leaning much too hard on the stats sheet here.

4 hours ago, kipwinger said:

I agree with your characterization of Broberg's skills.  By all accounts he's very fast, big, and all that.  But NONE of that has helped him score very much.  And if he's as bad defensively as you suggest, and he doesn't have a history of producing much offense then why the hell would anybody want him this high in the draft?  Because despite his track record we're just SURE he's going to break out when he gets to the SEL, or the AHL, or the NHL?  Seems like a bad bet to me.  Especially for a rebuilding team with a high pick in a deep draft. 

I agree with you. I stated in my last post I don't think the Wings would take him at 6. His inability to produce is what is sinking his value, same with Podkolzin.

Why are they both still projected to go in the top 15/20 though? Because both have shown stretches where they perform like tremendous players. Many of their highlights are undeniable, they look like game-breaking players. Someone will gamble on them, and it may pay off in spades, may not.

Ultimately at the end of the day it doesn't come down to stats or anything. It comes down to what the Wings scouts and Yzerman think of each player. For that reason I trust their expert decision on draft day. But based on what we know from the knowledge we're given, I think Broberg's upside going forward will be offense and not defensive ability.

In what the Wings will do, I truly think Yzerman will take a player from the US development program: Turcotte, Zegras, Boldy, or Caufield. Part of the rumors of Yzerman coming home to Detroit was because he was spending all his time in Plymouth Michigan scouting the top players in the US development program.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Buppy said:

Yeah, could look at Boqvist last year as a comparable situation. Hardly produced at all at the SHL/Allsvensken level, but was a point/game at the JR level. Comes to NA, and scores a point/game in the OHL. Not hard to imagine that Broberg might have more offense than he's shown. I'd be a little more concerned by some saying he occasionally tries to do too much/make plays he doesn't have the skill for, resulting in bad decisions/turnovers.

Smith jokes aside though, I'd consider him if we were to trade down to say 9 or 11. Wouldn't be my top choice, but close enough to be OK with it. But at 6 with at least one of Turcotte, Byram, Zegras, or Cozens guaranteed to be there...

Sometimes he blows by guys and then doesn't look like he knows what to do. Almost like Helm. His "finish" so to speak defiantly needs work, whether that's better passes or whatever.

Kid is fast though. Very fast. I noticed this kids speed way before I noticed Larkin's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Whoa hey now, I think it was you and I who spear-headed the Smith sucks campaign on this board.

I'll say this, I was hopeful with Smitty early on as much as anyone was. But by the time 2014 or so rolled around I accepted that he was trash. I have much different attitudes about 24/25 year old players than I do 17/18 year olds. I'm a lot more lenient and understanding of a player exhibiting unconfirmed potential at 18 than I am a pro playing at 24.

I think you're leaning much too hard on the stats sheet here.

I agree with you. I stated in my last post I don't think the Wings would take him at 6. His inability to produce is what is sinking his value, same with Podkolzin.

Why are they both still projected to go in the top 15/20 though? Because both have shown stretches where they perform like tremendous players. Many of their highlights are undeniable, they look like game-breaking players. Someone will gamble on them, and it may pay off in spades, may not.

Ultimately at the end of the day it doesn't come down to stats or anything. It comes down to what the Wings scouts and Yzerman think of each player. For that reason I trust their expert decision on draft day. But based on what we know from the knowledge we're given, I think Broberg's upside going forward will be offense and not defensive ability.

In what the Wings will do, I truly think Yzerman will take a player from the US development program: Turcotte, Zegras, Boldy, or Caufield. Part of the rumors of Yzerman coming home to Detroit was because he was spending all his time in Plymouth Michigan scouting the top players in the US development program.

I was spearheading the Brendan Smith hate, for the same reasons I don't like Broberg.  "Offensive" defensemen who don't score very much aren't really bringing a lot to the table.  They're certainly not a value pick at the top of the first round.

 

12 hours ago, Buppy said:

Yeah, could look at Boqvist last year as a comparable situation. Hardly produced at all at the SHL/Allsvensken level, but was a point/game at the JR level. Comes to NA, and scores a point/game in the OHL. Not hard to imagine that Broberg might have more offense than he's shown. I'd be a little more concerned by some saying he occasionally tries to do too much/make plays he doesn't have the skill for, resulting in bad decisions/turnovers.

Smith jokes aside though, I'd consider him if we were to trade down to say 9 or 11. Wouldn't be my top choice, but close enough to be OK with it. But at 6 with at least one of Turcotte, Byram, Zegras, or Cozens guaranteed to be there...

Boqvist is a great example of what I'm talking about.  He's guy who was heralded for his "offensive" ability despite not having provided much offense in his draft year.  Then he comes over and scores as well as Jared McIsaac, who we took with a 2nd round pick, in his draft plus one year.  The only way I'm ok using a top ten pick on a guy with supposed big offensive upside, but who hasn't found the scoresheet regularly, is if they're playing in a top league.  Otherwise, we shouldn't overthink it.  Broberg is getting a lot of play this year because he's one of the better defensemen in an extremely weak defensive draft class.  A year ago this guy would be considered a later first rounder. 

Edited by kipwinger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

I was spearheading the Brendan Smith hate, for the same reasons I don't like Broberg.  "Offensive" defensemen who don't score very much aren't really bringing a lot to the table.  They're certainly not a value pick at the top of the first round.

 

Boqvist is a great example of what I'm talking about.  He's guy who was heralded for his "offensive" ability despite not having provided much offense in his draft year.  Then he comes over and scores as well as Jared McIsaac, who we took with a 2nd round pick, in his draft plus one year.  The only way I'm ok using a top ten pick on a guy with supposed big offensive upside, but who hasn't found the scoresheet regularly, is if they're playing in a top league.  Otherwise, we shouldn't overthink it.  Broberg is getting a lot of play this year because he's one of the better defensemen in an extremely weak defensive draft class.  A year ago this guy would be considered a later first rounder. 

Is Boqvist not an example of a player having low stats his draft year but offensive upside anyway?

I'm pretty sure Chicago is happy with Boqvists development. I highly doubt they think they took him too high because that dude Detroit took in the 2nd scored a lot of points a year later.

Again, I think there's a big difference between a 17/18 year old not showing up on the stat sheet and a 24/25 year old Smith playing in the big show not showing up. Ty Bertuzzi didn't score a lot his draft year. Now look at him. Stats matter a lot, but it's not the end all be all with a teenage player.

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Is Boqvist not an example of a player having low stats his draft year but offensive upside anyway?

I'm pretty sure Chicago is happy with Boqvists development. I highly doubt they think they took him too high because that dude Detroit took in the 2nd scored a lot of points a year later.

Again, I think there's a big difference between a 17/18 year old not showing up on the stat sheet and a 24/25 year old Smith playing in the big show not showing up. Ty Bertuzzi didn't score a lot his draft year. Now look at him. Stats matter a lot, but it's not the end all be all with a teenage player.

Nobody advocated taking Tyler Bertuzzi, or Smith, or McIsaac in the Top Ten of the draft.  And I'd argue that if you take a draft pick (whether Boqvist or Broberg) that high and they end up being similarly productive to players taken in the 2nd round then you've probably misused that pick.  Especially if there were warning signs (e.g. poor history of offensive production) prior to drafting him.  Again, I'm not arguing that Broberg won't be good.  I'm arguing against taking him too high in the draft.  Something you've said you don't prefer, but you'd "be fine with".  I very much wouldn't be fine with it.  I'm just giving you my reasons why.  Broberg seems like a guy who's benefiting a lot from being a defenseman in a weak defensive class.  Buyer beware.

Maybe it's a philosophical difference.  I don't think you should draft anyone in the top ten you don't assess to have "star" level upside. And having a history of mediocre production at lower levels would certainly make me doubt whether a guy like Broberg has that kind of upside.  The odds of finding a legit difference maker outside the Top Ten are so diminished that I think you've wasted your best possible chance of getting one if you play it safe with high picks.  Doesn't mean you can't find them, obviously, just means you're not playing the odds like you should IMO.

Edited by kipwinger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Nobody advocated taking Tyler Bertuzzi, or Smith, or McIsaac in the Top Ten of the draft.  And I'd argue that if you take a draft pick (whether Boqvist or Broberg) that high and they end up being similarly productive to players taken in the 2nd round then you've probably misused that pick.

Well duh. Although if you're referencing Bertuzzi and McIsaac directly here, I'd say both of those players would go higher than the 2nd round in a redraft.

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Again, I'm not arguing that Broberg won't be good.  I'm arguing against taking him too high in the draft.  Something you've said you don't prefer, but you'd "be fine with".  I very much wouldn't be fine with it.  I'm just giving you my reasons why.  Broberg seems like a guy who's benefiting a lot from being a defenseman in a weak defensive class.  Buyer beware.

I'd be fine with it because I trust the judgement of professionals over my own.

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Maybe it's a philosophical difference.  I don't think you should draft anyone in the top ten you don't assess to have "star" level upside. And having a history of mediocre production at lower levels would certainly make me doubt whether a guy like Broberg has that kind of upside.  The odds of finding a legit difference maker outside the Top Ten are so diminished that I think you've wasted your best possible chance of getting one if you play it safe with high picks.  Doesn't mean you can't find them, obviously, just means you're not playing the odds like you should IMO.

The top 10 outside of Hughes and Kakko is pretty wide open. I'd go as far as to say the Top 15 and Top 20 is pretty wide open as well. It wouldn't shock me at all to see lower stat guys like Broberg and Podkolzin both go in the top 10. It also wouldn't shock me to see them fall to the 2nd round.

I think the only philosophical difference here is where this originally started. You compared Broberg to Klefbom and referenced him as "shutdown Dman" and "limited offensive upside".

That's where I truly disagree with you and thought you're assessment of Broberg was bizarre.

Firstly, I don't view Klefbom as a shutdown Dman at all.
Secondly, Broberg by all descriptions is lacking in the defensive department, not the offensive ones. If he's truly limited on both sides of the puck he wouldn't be anywhere near the first 3 rounds.

I don't disagree with your assessment of his stats really, I just don't lean that heavily on that single line of thought.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Buppy said:

Yeah, could look at Boqvist last year as a comparable situation. Hardly produced at all at the SHL/Allsvensken level, but was a point/game at the JR level. Comes to NA, and scores a point/game in the OHL. Not hard to imagine that Broberg might have more offense than he's shown. I'd be a little more concerned by some saying he occasionally tries to do too much/make plays he doesn't have the skill for, resulting in bad decisions/turnovers.

Smith jokes aside though, I'd consider him if we were to trade down to say 9 or 11. Wouldn't be my top choice, but close enough to be OK with it. But at 6 with at least one of Turcotte, Byram, Zegras, or Cozens guaranteed to be there...

Here are the big questions I ask myself about kids like Broberg and Podkolzin (i.e. top-rated Euros who play on Euro teams in their draft season and whose draft season production doesn't necessarily match the HYPE!):

  • Do I believe they would have done very well for themselves on a CHL team in their draft season?
  • Do I believe they would do very well for themselves on a CHL team in their draft + 1 season?

Re: Broberg and Podkolzin, my answer to both questions is a confident yes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dabura said:

Here are the big questions I ask myself about kids like Broberg and Podkolzin (i.e. top-rated Euros who play on Euro teams in their draft season and whose draft season production doesn't necessarily match the HYPE!):

  • Do I believe they would have done very well for themselves on a CHL team in their draft season?
  • Do I believe they would do very well for themselves on a CHL team in their draft + 1 season?

Re: Broberg and Podkolzin, my answer to both questions is a confident yes.

Sure, but that's true of basically every single Canadian and American being discussed in the top 15 to 20 as well.  And as much as everyone acts like the difference between 6 and 12 (for instance) is a roll of the dice, a franchise rebuild literally depends on getting it right.  So you've got to use some set of metrics for separation and I'd say that failing to dominate your respective league (despite heavily touted offensive ability) might be the kind of thing that stops you from drafting a guy at 6 who might better be drafted at 12, again, for instance. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Well duh. Although if you're referencing Bertuzzi and McIsaac directly here, I'd say both of those players would go higher than the 2nd round in a redraft.

Sure, but neither would likely go in the top ten. 

I'd be fine with it because I trust the judgement of professionals over my own.

While I agree, I question your decision to join a sports discussion board if this is your fall back argument. What's there to discuss?

The top 10 outside of Hughes and Kakko is pretty wide open. I'd go as far as to say the Top 15 and Top 20 is pretty wide open as well. It wouldn't shock me at all to see lower stat guys like Broberg and Podkolzin both go in the top 10. It also wouldn't shock me to see them fall to the 2nd round.

I doubt it's as wide open as you think.  Most years people say picks 6-10 or 4-12 are wide open.  They rarely are.  There's pretty much always separation after the fact, which shows in your aforementioned re-drafts.  Last year everyone said picks 3-10 were essentially toss ups.  They clearly aren't. 

I think the only philosophical difference here is where this originally started. You compared Broberg to Klefbom and referenced him as "shutdown Dman" and "limited offensive upside".

Klefbom's career high in points is 38, so he's hardly an "offensive" defenseman. He's also touted for his "shutdown ability" in most scouting reports I've read. Maybe "two way", if you like that one more.  I'll stand behind the 'limited offensive upside" part.  If you think 30+ points once in your career is impressive you'll love Danny Dekeyser.  Again, the comparison to Klefbom isn't mine and to the extent that it's accurate (it may not be) I'm not overly impressed with the "offensive" upside of Broberg. 

That's where I truly disagree with you and thought you're assessment of Broberg was bizarre.

You're glossing over a pretty significant criticism of Broberg's.  People like his "transition" game and his skating, but he's been heavily criticized for his decision making in the offensive zone.  Part of that criticism explains why his numbers aren't all that impressive: mainly he's good at getting the puck in the O-zone but has no idea what to do with it once he's there.  Hence, low point totals.  If you were arguing that Broberg is a good "transitional" defenseman we wouldn't be having this conversation because I agree.  I strongly disagree with any assessment which claims he's "offensive" because to do that he'd need to produce offense, which he really doesn't. 

Firstly, I don't view Klefbom as a shutdown Dman at all.
Secondly, Broberg by all descriptions is lacking in the defensive department, not the offensive ones. If he's truly limited on both sides of the puck he wouldn't be anywhere near the first 3 rounds.

Not true. Defensemen are highly valuable commodities and this is a weak class for defensemen.  Given Broberg's raw tools it's not unreasonable to think he'll be taken in the first round based on what he "might" become.  Also, based on those tools I'd say his floor is quite a lot higher than most and in a weak defensive class that might be good enough to get him into the first round.

I don't disagree with your assessment of his stats really, I just don't lean that heavily on that single line of thought.

I don't either.  I explained how much I value stats, scouting reports, and projections based on physical potential.  I just value stats the most because they're empirical.  I've been wrong about stats before (AA wasn't as good in the AHL as he is in the NHL) but in general looking at someone's track record of production against their peers is still the best possible tool we have for evaluation. I'll always value stats over Ray Ferraro's opinion (or Corey Pronman's for that matter) of a kid's character, work ethic, etc.  but that doesn't mean the latter is meaningless. 

 

Edited by kipwinger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, HoweFan said:

I’m trying to pump up Moritz Seider in my mind. Is he comparable to a Trouba. I’d rather have him than Zegras

Seider is a mid to late round pick, not a 6th overall pick. He may even slip to the 2nd round (unlikely) if we're lucky...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Christ, why would you write your responses inside a quote box? If your purposely making me copy and past everything one by one to be cruel, congrats you have succeeded.

31 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Sure, but neither would likely go in the top ten. 

Yeah but that's not the point. You're comparing Boqvist to a guy who barely slipped out of the 1st round and probably could go top 15 next to Noah Dobson in a redraft, and then saying "look, Boqvist isn't any better than a 2nd rounder". That's like me saying Adam Foote should never have been drafted in the 2nd round because Lidstrom was drafted in the 3rd.

45 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

While I agree, I question your decision to join a sports discussion board if this is your fall back argument. What's there to discuss?

We can discuss how asinine it is to "very much not be ok with" selecting a player at 6th overall because you - a person with zero professional training in the industry and no experience scouting this player or any player for that matter - once googled a stat sheet. I'd love to have that discussion with a lot of sports fans.

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Most years people say picks 6-10 or 4-12 are wide open.  They rarely are.  There's pretty much always separation after the fact, which shows in your aforementioned re-drafts.  Last year everyone said picks 3-10 were essentially toss ups.  They clearly aren't. 

.Ok please enlighten me how picks 4-12 will play out. I'm excited to see who we're taking.

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Klefbom's career high in points is 38, so he's hardly an "offensive" defenseman. He's also touted for his "shutdown ability" in most scouting reports I've read. Maybe "two way", if you like that one more.  I'll stand behind the 'limited offensive upside" part.  If you think 30+ points once in your career is impressive you'll love Danny Dekeyser.  Again, the comparison to Klefbom isn't mine and to the extent that it's accurate (it may not be) I'm not overly impressed with the "offensive" upside of Broberg. 

I thought you didn't trust those scouting reports??

38 pts would have put Klefbom in the top 35 of all Dmen in the league in terms of points this year. Being a 30-40 pt Dman - which is Klefbom's scoring rate - basically means your a top 50 Dman in the league in terms of points. How much do you think Dmen usually score?

Klefbom also led Edmonton's Dmen in PP points and PP time. Plays 1st unit PP and 2nd unit PK. 

What is he again? Shut down Dman?

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

You're glossing over a pretty significant criticism of Broberg's.  People like his "transition" game and his skating, but he's been heavily criticized for his decision making in the offensive zone.  Part of that criticism explains why his numbers aren't all that impressive: mainly he's good at getting the puck in the O-zone but has no idea what to do with it once he's there.  Hence, low point totals.  If you were arguing that Broberg is a good "transitional" defenseman we wouldn't be having this conversation because I agree.  I strongly disagree with any assessment which claims he's "offensive" because to do that he'd need to produce offense, which he really doesn't.

Lol did you just read my post comparing him to Helm a few posts back where I talked about his IQ and not knowing what to do with the puck? Thanks for parroting it back to me.

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Not true. Defensemen are highly valuable commodities and this is a weak class for defensemen.  Given Broberg's raw tools it's not unreasonable to think he'll be taken in the first round based on what he "might" become.  Also, based on those tools I'd say his floor is quite a lot higher than most and in a weak defensive class that might be good enough to get him into the first round.

Ah now we acknowledge he has the raw tools and potential... and even a high floor! Right on

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

I don't either.  I explained how much I value stats, scouting reports, and projections based on physical potential.  I just value stats the most because they're empirical.  I've been wrong about stats before (AA wasn't as good in the AHL as he is in the NHL) but in general looking at someone's track record of production against their peers is still the best possible tool we have for evaluation. I'll always value stats over Ray Ferraro's opinion (or Corey Pronman's for that matter) of a kid's character, work ethic, etc.  but that doesn't mean the latter is meaningless. 

Nerd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, HoweFan said:

I’m trying to pump up Moritz Seider in my mind. Is he comparable to a Trouba. I’d rather have him than Zegras

If you've been reading this thread, you know I like Seider.

He probably won't be going to us at 6 or inside the top 10 even, but whoever takes him at like 12, 15, or 20, I think will be getting the 2nd best Dman in the draft. He's a dark horse prospect IMO.

The knock on him is he is German and the DEL isn't the best league and doesn't produce many NHLers. So I think there's some pull back and hesitation on him there. If he was Swedish I personally think he would be in the discussion of the Top 10.

Other than that he doesn't really have any weaknesses other than being boring to watch at times (Dmen should be IMO unless they're a Karlsson type player)

I think he's the most NHL ready player other than Dylan Cozens. But will probably go back to Adler Mannheim next year to play on their top pairing.

This year he started as top 6 and finished as top 4, and was sheltered offensively by his coach, but German fans rave about his poise with the puck, vision, and hard shot from the point. He just hasn't been able to truly unleash any of that yet at the pro level. Not suggesting he will be a 50 pt Dman like Trouba, I think smart defense is more his wheel house, but a consistent 30 or even 40 pt Dman he could be.

I think at worst he's Danny Dekeyser. I think at best he's Ryan McDonagh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

I explained how much I value stats, scouting reports, and projections based on physical potential.  I just value stats the most because they're empirical.  I've been wrong about stats before (AA wasn't as good in the AHL as he is in the NHL) but in general looking at someone's track record of production against their peers is still the best possible tool we have for evaluation. I'll always value stats over Ray Ferraro's opinion (or Corey Pronman's for that matter) of a kid's character, work ethic, etc.  but that doesn't mean the latter is meaningless. 

To be fair, Broberg didn't play against his peers. Allsvenskan is a men's pro league, and he was one of only 12 under-18s to play, the only one to play more than 13 games, played more games than the other 11 combined, and did it for one of the best teams in the league. I'm sure the stats of the top NA prospects would be considerably worse if they played in the AHL, or even just the worst half of it. 

And while it is a "2nd-tier" league, that might be a bit misleading. Sweden has relegation, and only 14 teams in the SHL. It's not like a minor league and he wasn't good enough to be called up to the top team. He played at the highest level of his organization.

18 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Something, something, something, Nerd

You need to show how Broberg will be better than Zegras/Cozens, not just that he'll maybe be able to score 30-40 points. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Buppy said:

You need to show how Broberg will be better than Zegras/Cozens, not just that he'll maybe be able to score 30-40 points. 

I've never stated we should or will be taking him over Zegras/Cozens. In fact I've said I don't expect us to take him and personally wouldn't prefer taking him.

Catch up Bups

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I've never stated we should or will be taking him over Zegras/Cozens. In fact I've said I don't expect us to take him and personally wouldn't prefer taking him.

Catch up Bups

So in other words, you're just wasting everyone's time with a pointless debate, like none of us have other websites to divide our time-wasting amongst. Now I'll probably never get to be shocked by #6 from the "Top 20 Celebrities You Didn't Know Had a Twin".

Noberg 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Buppy said:

So in other words, you're just wasting everyone's time with a pointless debate, like none of us have other websites to divide our time-wasting amongst. Now I'll probably never get to be shocked by #6 from the "Top 20 Celebrities You Didn't Know Had a Twin".

Noberg 2019

While I agree, I question your decision to join a sports discussion board if this is your fall back argument. What's there to discuss?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Christ, why would you write your responses inside a quote box? If your purposely making me copy and past everything one by one to be cruel, congrats you have succeeded.

Yeah but that's not the point. You're comparing Boqvist to a guy who barely slipped out of the 1st round and probably could go top 15 next to Noah Dobson in a redraft, and then saying "look, Boqvist isn't any better than a 2nd rounder". That's like me saying Adam Foote should never have been drafted in the 2nd round because Lidstrom was drafted in the 3rd.

We can discuss how asinine it is to "very much not be ok with" selecting a player at 6th overall because you - a person with zero professional training in the industry and no experience scouting this player or any player for that matter - once googled a stat sheet. I'd love to have that discussion with a lot of sports fans.

.Ok please enlighten me how picks 4-12 will play out. I'm excited to see who we're taking.

I thought you didn't trust those scouting reports??

38 pts would have put Klefbom in the top 35 of all Dmen in the league in terms of points this year. Being a 30-40 pt Dman - which is Klefbom's scoring rate - basically means your a top 50 Dman in the league in terms of points. How much do you think Dmen usually score?

Klefbom also led Edmonton's Dmen in PP points and PP time. Plays 1st unit PP and 2nd unit PK. 

What is he again? Shut down Dman?

Lol did you just read my post comparing him to Helm a few posts back where I talked about his IQ and not knowing what to do with the puck? Thanks for parroting it back to me.

Ah now we acknowledge he has the raw tools and potential... and even a high floor! Right on

Nerd

Wait, I've spent all this time explaining why I wouldn't take Broberg in the Top Ten of the draft and you're readily admitting he's the Darren Helm of defensemen?  In the future save me the time and start with that doozie of an opening gambit. 

Me:  Seriously, that guy sucks there's no way we should trade for him!

You: I don't think you understand where I'm coming from, he's basically the Luke Glendening of goalies!

Me:  Seems dumb.

You: Professional scouts might disagree. 

Me:  Touche.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kipwinger said:

Wait, I've spent all this time explaining why I wouldn't take Broberg in the Top Ten of the draft and you're readily admitting he's the Darren Helm of defensemen?  In the future save me the time and start with that doozie of an opening gambit. 

Me:  Seriously, that guy sucks there's no way we should trade for him!

You: I don't think you understand where I'm coming from, he's basically the Luke Glendening of goalies!

Me:  Seems dumb.

You: Professional scouts might disagree. 

Me:  Touche.

I accept your cop out

Carry on ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

While I agree, I question your decision to join a sports discussion board if this is your fall back argument. What's there to discuss?

Sounds familiar.  Who said that?  Seems like something an extremely handsome, educated, and generally well endowed guy would say right before he signed off LGW to bang all your wives. 

1 minute ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I accept your cop out

Carry on ;)

Weak.  That's the Jimmy Howard of LGW responses.  Which, by your standards, means it's probably a top ten post. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now