2019 Draft

[kipwinger 8,524]

27 minutes ago, Buppy said:

I wasn't actually comparing it to the AHL, just trying to say that "dominating their league" isn't a very good standard for judging European prospects. Almost all the best ones play in the pro leagues, and they are rarely dominant. I don't want to debate the relative strength of different leagues, because that is only part of the equation. Euro leagues tend to be lower scoring, and I would guess it's somewhat harder for a young kid to earn a top spot. If they were just "easy" leagues, the good European NHL players should have dominated, but for the most part that isn't the case. Even Ovechkin and Malkin didn't dominate in Russia. Put the top NA prospects in Allsvenskan I don't think they'd have anywhere near the same numbers. The same goes for almost all the Euros: Podkolzin, Seider, Soderstrom. Have to look beyond the stats much more than with NA players.

I definitely understand your argument.  And again, I don't know enough about Allsvenskan to double down on this too much.  I guess my assumption is that IF it's a similar league to the ECHL, then top of the draft talent should be able to produce reasonably well.  And Broberg's numbers seem pretty pedestrian by that league's standards, even among draft eligible players. Like I said elsewhere, he's producing at about the same rate in that league that Gustav Lindstrom did as a draft eligible player.  I suppose maybe it's that production COMBINED with the potential that his physical tools gives him.  Which would be in line with some of the scouting reports on him I've seen.  But I just don't see high level offensive upside with the guy given how little he's produced relative to his peers, both in Allsvenskan as well as in age restricted best on best tourneys. 

As far as the Russian example you gave, I'd expect Russian players to struggle more than Swedish players in their respective leagues.  Given that there are about 140 million more people in Russia I'd expect there to be more good players at every level of hockey.  Maybe the top guys in each league are comparable, but the rank and file guys should (theoretically) all be better in Russia. As a result, it should always be a little harder to make the team, get minutes, produce offense, etc. in Russia. 

Edited June 19, 2019 by kipwinger

[Buppy 1,720]

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

I definitely understand your argument.  And again, I don't know enough about Allsvenskan to double down on this too much.  I guess my assumption is that IF it's a similar league to the ECHL, then top of the draft talent should be able to produce reasonably well.  ...

Seems logical, I know, but it's just not the way it works. Take a look at top 10 picks from Europe from the last several years. Stats are generally unimpressive for those playing in the men's leagues. 

[amato 3,210]

Oops wrong thread 

 

Edited June 19, 2019 by amato

[krsmith17 7,191]

9 hours ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Ummm I’d go with 3rd personally (got mantha ahead of him)how else are we expected to get these future 1st pair dmen? We keep getting unlucky in draft (zadina dropping,and byram not being there) 

only way to get these guys are before they explode and turn into a 1-2 Damn cause teams won’t move them , so we can either target a bean,fabbro type now or go for our lucky and draft them and I personally believe AA (too many good forwards in our organization will be competing for top 6 roles sooner rather than later ) will be dealt eventually so for me it doesn’t really  matter when the time is as long as we get a dman involved back

Same thing I was talking about last week... If we're trading high end assets like Athanasiou, it needs to be for a known (top prospect), not an unknown (draft pick). As much as I'd like to trade a forward (preferably AA) for a defenseman, I'd feel a lot more comfortable doing so for a Fabbro or Bean, than roll the dice on any of Broberg, Soderstrom, Seider, York or Harley...

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

Same thing I was talking about last week... If we're trading high end assets like Athanasiou, it needs to be for a known (top prospect), not an unknown (draft pick). As much as I'd like to trade a forward (preferably AA) for a defenseman, I'd feel a lot more comfortable doing so for a Fabbro or Bean, than roll the dice on any of Broberg, Soderstrom, Seider, York or Harley...

That’s the problem though teams will be more reluctant to trade the known prospects who can be 1-2 dmen ... I’d take bean or fabbro but realistically what are the chances? Especially for a guy with one 30 goal season? If you look at the preds fabbro will be the guy to take over when guys like josi get older (he’s already getting there) and I think Carolina have so many dmen they wanna move guys like Faulk and not bean, it’s not what I want but I’m trying to be realistic

next best option? Make our own luck and get like that 8th, seider is already playing against men and has been impressive so I think he plays in the nhl , what he becomes? Who knows but if AA turned into seider at 12 let’s say plus a 2nd rd pick I’d personally do it, would suck for next year but also makes us tank for a top 3 pick .... yes I know fans will love me for saying that .... without tanking 

anyways sooner or later we’ll have to risk something and longer we wait to make a move on draft  day longer we wait for the dman to develop 

[krsmith17 7,191]

12 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

That’s the problem though teams will be more reluctant to trade the known prospects who can be 1-2 dmen ... I’d take bean or fabbro but realistically what are the chances? Especially for a guy with one 30 goal season? If you look at the preds fabbro will be the guy to take over when guys like josi get older (he’s already getting there) and I think Carolina have so many dmen they wanna move guys like Faulk and not bean, it’s not what I want but I’m trying to be realistic

next best option? Make our own luck and get like that 8th, seider is already playing against men and has been impressive so I think he plays in the nhl , what he becomes? Who knows but if AA turned into seider at 12 let’s say plus a 2nd rd pick I’d personally do it, would suck for next year but also makes us tank for a top 3 pick .... yes I know fans will love me for saying that .... without tanking 

anyways sooner or later we’ll have to risk something and longer we wait to make a move on draft  day longer we wait for the dman to develop 

So you don't think it's likely to get a top defensive prospect from a team that is stacked on the back end, for a highly skilled forward to a team that lacks offense? But you think a team that has been a tire fire for over a decade would be willing to give up a top 10 pick for that same player? Keep in mind, this is a GM that we all know very well, and keeps stressing how vital it is to build through the draft.

[kipwinger 8,524]

7 hours ago, Buppy said:

Seems logical, I know, but it's just not the way it works. Take a look at top 10 picks from Europe from the last several years. Stats are generally unimpressive for those playing in the men's leagues. 

I'm genuinely not trying to harp on this too much, so bear with me.  But "generally unimpressive" compared to what?  Because I realize their raw numbers won't be comparable to guys in North American leagues, but are they unimpressive compared to other draft eligible players in the same European leagues over the years? 

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

5 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

So you don't think it's likely to get a top defensive prospect from a team that is stacked on the back end, for a highly skilled forward to a team that lacks offense? But you think a team that has been a tire fire for over a decade would be willing to give up a top 10 pick for that same player? Keep in mind, this is a GM that we all know very well, and keeps stressing how vital it is to build through the draft.

No it could happen but what’s the likely scenario? Carolina deals bean or Faulk? Pesce?those are the name you keep hearing on the trade block if we value bean and want him surely Carolina does as well 

preds what do we hear? Pk’s Name , if you were the gm of Nashville would you deal fabbro?cause I wouldn’t I see him on the 3rd pair to learn off josi and one day being a top pair dman and leading the future 

oh I’m well aware I’m probably being unrealistic with us getting the 8th pick but we have a few things working for us , Holland knows athanasiou so he might like him and would take him(maybe we’d have to throw in a saarijarvi and ehn in the deal which I’d do) and Edmonton Oilers are beyond desperate to be competitive and make the playoffs , they don’t want to push mcdavid out of town and they shouldn’t 

and maybe I’m being biased but if AA can score 30 here in my head with his speed and abilities how cans he not score 30-40 on a line with mcdavid ?and I’m sure that’s something Holland would think about as well and would give Edmonton a 2nd line with nuge and draisaitl 

again im probably deluding myself and your right Holland values the draft but he also knows Edmonton needs to win now as well

[krsmith17 7,191]

16 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

No it could happen but what’s the likely scenario? Carolina deals bean or Faulk? Pesce?those are the name you keep hearing on the trade block if we value bean and want him surely Carolina does as well 

preds what do we hear? Pk’s Name , if you were the gm of Nashville would you deal fabbro?cause I wouldn’t I see him on the 3rd pair to learn off josi and one day being a top pair dman and leading the future 

oh I’m well aware I’m probably being unrealistic with us getting the 8th pick but we have a few things working for us , Holland knows athanasiou so he might like him and would take him(maybe we’d have to throw in a saarijarvi and ehn in the deal which I’d do) and Edmonton Oilers are beyond desperate to be competitive and make the playoffs , they don’t want to push mcdavid out of town and they shouldn’t 

and maybe I’m being biased but if AA can score 30 here in my head with his speed and abilities how cans he not score 30-40 on a line with mcdavid ?and I’m sure that’s something Holland would think about as well and would give Edmonton a 2nd line with nuge and draisaitl 

again im probably deluding myself and your right Holland values the draft but he also knows Edmonton needs to win now as well

Again, not saying it's likely that Nashville or Carolina trade Fabbro or Bean, but I highly doubt either are untouchable with the amount of depth they both have on the back end.

You think Edmonton are in win-now mode? I'm sure Holland would like to get them back into the playoffs, but I'm also sure Nashville would like to go on another deep run, and Carolina would like to build off of what they did last season. Which is why I think they might be willing to trade a high-end defensive prospect before a high-end defenseman off their roster, especially Nashville.

I also think Athanasiou would be a great fit in Edmonton on McDavid's wing, but you're not getting the 8th overall pick for AA.

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

9 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Again, not saying it's likely that Nashville or Carolina trade Fabbro or Bean, but I highly doubt either are untouchable with the amount of depth they both have on the back end.

You think Edmonton are in win-now mode? I'm sure Holland would like to get them back into the playoffs, but I'm also sure Nashville would like to go on another deep run, and Carolina would like to build off of what they did last season. Which is why I think they might be willing to trade a high-end defensive prospect before a high-end defenseman off their roster, especially Nashville.

I also think Athanasiou would be a great fit in Edmonton on McDavid's wing, but you're not getting the 8th overall pick for AA.

Well obviously if you offer rantanen or something they’d do it but it would have to be something to make them really think twice , Don’t think AA would be the answer 

don’t think Edmonton wants to keep losing or they’ll be faced with the day real soon where mcdavid demands a trade , sure preds and Carolina want to win but again I think it would have to a be a deal to knock them off their socks I think pk and Faulk would be the guys to move , Don’t forget the Seattle draft so I’m expecting pk to be moved which will make fabbro untouchable 

well probably not , we won’t get bean or fabbro for him either so I guess we better have a good draft lol

[krsmith17 7,191]

49 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Well obviously if you offer rantanen or something they’d do it but it would have to be something to make them really think twice , Don’t think AA would be the answer 

don’t think Edmonton wants to keep losing or they’ll be faced with the day real soon where mcdavid demands a trade , sure preds and Carolina want to win but again I think it would have to a be a deal to knock them off their socks I think pk and Faulk would be the guys to move , Don’t forget the Seattle draft so I’m expecting pk to be moved which will make fabbro untouchable 

well probably not , we won’t get bean or fabbro for him either so I guess we better have a good draft lol

You think a team would need to offer up a Rantanen caliber player in order to get a prospect that has only played a handful of NHL games? Yeah, okay...

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

42 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

You think a team would need to offer up a Rantanen caliber player in order to get a prospect that has only played a handful of NHL games? Yeah, okay...

 you think a team will give up a top d prospect for a player with one good season? Yeah, okay ... 

[amato 3,210]

here's a pretty cool graph for the draft. Someone on reddit (u/Tylemaker) simulated the draft 1 million times using 17 different rankings. All it basically proved is what we already know: past 1 and 2 is wide open... pretty cool idea though.

 

 

[krsmith17 7,191]

25 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

 you think a team will give up a top d prospect for a player with one good season? Yeah, okay ... 

I was never advocating trading Athanasiou for a top D prospect. I was just saying that if we're making a trade for defensive help, it would be wiser to do so far a known (prospect), than an unknown (draft pick).

I also think a top 10 pick is more "untouchable" than the prospects we've been discussing.

[kipwinger 8,524]

2 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Again, not saying it's likely that Nashville or Carolina trade Fabbro or Bean, but I highly doubt either are untouchable with the amount of depth they both have on the back end.

 

I would hope not.  Neither have proven that they're any better than a Hronek or a Cholowski.  People get so hung up around here on certain players that they "like" or "want" or whatever that they never stop to ask if they're any good, or if acquiring them would be worth the cost given what we already have.  Trading top end assets for a smallish, offensive, defenseman when we've got two smallish, offensive, defensemen who are arguably better is pretty dumb considering a top-four of those guys would get absolutely DOMINATED by most decent teams. 

As hard as it might be to grasp for the "WE NEED TO ADDRESS OUR DEFENSE IMMEDIATELY!!!!" crowd, it is entirely possible that our stable of young defensemen (Hronek, Cholo, McIsaac, Lindstrom) plus the depth guys (Regula, Barton, Sarijaarvi, and Kaski) might very well be better than any combination we'd have by acquiring someone like Bean or Fabbro...and we wouldn't have to toss away high quality assets to get it. 

[krsmith17 7,191]

5 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I would hope not.  Neither have proven that they're any better than a Hronek or a Cholowski.  People get so hung up around here on certain players that they "like" or "want" or whatever that they never stop to ask if they're any good, or if acquiring them would be worth the cost given what we already have.  Trading top end assets for a smallish, offensive, defenseman when we've got two smallish, offensive, defensemen who are arguably better is pretty dumb considering a top-four of those guys would get absolutely DOMINATED by most decent teams. 

As hard as it might be to grasp for the "WE NEED TO ADDRESS OUR DEFENSE IMMEDIATELY!!!!" crowd, it is entirely possible that our stable of young defensemen (Hronek, Cholo, McIsaac, Lindstrom) plus the depth guys (Regula, Barton, Sarijaarvi, and Kaski) might very well be better than any combination we'd have by acquiring someone like Bean or Fabbro...and we wouldn't have to toss away high quality assets to get it. 

I have no doubt that Fabbro and Bean will be good NHlers. Will they be top pair guys? I think so, but who knows... I have no idea if they would be worth the cost, since I have no idea what the cost would be. What do you think it would cost?

I don't think our stable of young defensemen is near good enough. I'm okay with continuing to add through the draft, and eventually free agency, but if we could snag a high end defensive prospect for a reasonable price, of course you do it.

[kipwinger 8,524]

1 minute ago, krsmith17 said:

I have no doubt that Fabbro and Bean will be good NHlers. Will they be top pair guys? I think so, but who knows... I have no idea if they would be worth the cost, since I have no idea what the cost would be. What do you think it would cost?

I don't think our stable of young defensemen is near good enough. I'm okay with continuing to add through the draft, and eventually free agency, but if we could snag a high end defensive prospect for a reasonable price, of course you do it.

Any cost is too high considering they're nearly identical stylisically to Hronek and Cholowski and neither are demonstrably better.  And you can't really have a top four of identical guys who all have essentially the same pros and cons.

[krsmith17 7,191]

6 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Any cost is too high considering they're nearly identical stylisically to Hronek and Cholowski and neither are demonstrably better.  And you can't really have a top four of identical guys who all have essentially the same pros and cons.

Why are you restricting it to "top four"? Why not top six? You can't have a top six consisting of three highly skilled offensive defensemen? I find it hard to believe that "any cost is too high"...

[kipwinger 8,524]

3 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Why are you restricting it to "top four"? Why not top six? You can't have a top six consisting of three highly skilled offensive defensemen? I find it hard to believe that "any cost is too high"...

If you're planning on using them on the 3rd pair then they're not really all that important to trade for are they? 

And obviously I don't mean "any".  If some team is giving guys like that away then sure, take them.  But if they're similar stylistically to what you have, and they're not any better, and they're going to cost more than a little, and they're going to play on the 3rd pair, then you probably should think twice about trading for them.  Particularly when you guys are talking about trading higher end roster players to get one.

The truth is we've got a REALLY good crop of young defensemen already in our system.  None of them are a Doughty or a Keith or a Burns, but neither are Fabbro or Bean or anybody else you're likely to trade for.  The closest thing to a guy like that was Trouba (maybe) and that seems significantly less likely now.  The better course would be to keep your assets, watch how they develop, and look to develop a solid defensive group.  Then target a defender with your 1st rounder next year when we'll presumably still have a high(ish) pick.

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

50 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I was never advocating trading Athanasiou for a top D prospect. I was just saying that if we're making a trade for defensive help, it would be wiser to do so far a known (prospect), than an unknown (draft pick).

I also think a top 10 pick is more "untouchable" than the prospects we've been discussing.

And I’m saying it’ll take a lot more than athanasiou to get those known prospects and teams will be reluctant to part with them and we might be better off creating our own luck and drafting them 

you could be right be all depends how desperate teams are I know edm need help badly and I heard flyers are looking for a winger on top 6 and #11 is in play , all depends if we wanna target those picks and think longterm or not 

[krsmith17 7,191]

8 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

If you're planning on using them on the 3rd pair then they're not really all that important to trade for are they? 

And obviously I don't mean "any".  If some team is giving guys like that away then sure, take them.  But if they're similar stylistically to what you have, and they're not any better, and they're going to cost more than a little, and they're going to play on the 3rd pair, then you probably should think twice about trading for them.  Particularly when you guys are talking about trading higher end roster players to get one.

The truth is we've got a REALLY good crop of young defensemen already in our system.  None of them are a Doughty or a Keith or a Burns, but neither are Fabbro or Bean or anybody else you're likely to trade for.  The closest thing to a guy like that was Trouba (maybe) and that seems significantly less likely now.  The better course would be to keep your assets, watch how they develop, and look to develop a solid defensive group.  Then target a defender with your 1st rounder next year when we'll presumably still have a high(ish) pick.

Who said anything about using one of them on the 3rd pair? It could just as easily be Cholowski on the 3rd pair and Fabbro / Bean on the 2nd pair. Regardless who's slotted where though, having a "top pair" defenseman playing on your 2nd pair and a "2nd pair" defenseman playing on your bottom pair is the dream. Also, balance. If all three end up being exactly the same, and all three end up being our top three defensemen, I'd be okay with spreading them out across three pairings.

Again, I have no idea what it would cost to get either of those guys, but I'd pull the trigger if it were within reason. I wasn't saying we should trade Athanasiou or any other established player, just that IF we were trading an established player, like Athanasiou, I'd rather go after a proven prospect than a crap shoot draft pick... That's what myself and NITF were disagreeing on...

I'm not convinced our d corp is anything special yet. I'm sure you remember, not too long ago, fans raving about the next wave of Jensen, Sproul, Ouellet, Backman and Marchenko... I think what we have now is a huge upgrade to that crop, but I'm not convinced any are true top pair guys yet. I think Hronek and Cholowski could be, but I wouldn't place any bets yet. Who knows what we have in McIsaac and Lindstrom at this point. I'm optimistic, but if we can add to it, I would for sure.

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

Don’t see how this happens but if it does the redwings are Doing this 110% cause they know teams are scared off and they can land podkolzin at #10 otherwise this makes no sense at all

cant see them trading us hughes for the #6 alone 

[Dabura 12,207]

Cam Robinson: Final NHL Draft Rankings [Dobber Prospects]

[krsmith17 7,191]

Is it just me or is who the Wings select at 6 this year much more controversial than in year's past?

I've heard Wings fans say they would love/ hate if the Wings draft each of Zegras, Caufield, Cozens, Dach, Krebs, Podkolzin at one point or another...

[Dabura 12,207]

7 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Is it just me or is who the Wings select at 6 this year much more controversial than in year's past?

I've heard Wings fans say they would love/ hate if the Wings draft each of Zegras, Caufield, Cozens, Dach, Krebs, Podkolzin at one point or another...

I think it's a testament to how deep this top 20-25 appears to be.