2019 Draft

[krsmith17 7,191]

2 hours ago, amato said:

He wouldn't. But just saying that it's not 100% decided that he's going back to the DEL next season. Either way would be good, I'd just rather him start in the AHL for callup potential.

The AHL is also a stronger league, albeit not by a huge margin, which would be better for his development. Not to mention playing on North American ice, and being right in the backyard of the big club, for better resources, training, eating, etc... Playing another year in the DEL wouldn't be the worst thing, but I personally hope he makes the jump to the AHL... I'd also be able to watch a lot more Grand Rapids games than Adler Mannheim, so there's also that...

Either way, really looking forward to see what the kid is all about in development camp this week!

[kipwinger 8,520]

I don't think enough is being made about the fact that his kid is from a German league. There is NOT a big track record of success, particularly at the higher end of the draft, coming out of Germany.  People legitimately questioned Alex Newhook because he played in the BCHL last season, but it appears everyone is basically fine with using a top ten pick on a guy from a league that has NEVER produced a top ten talent. I mean, somebody's gotta be the first, but I haven't seen enough of Seider to make me feel confident that he's the one.  Also, I think the team (led by Yzerman) has done a TERRIBLE job selling this kid to the fans. "Ummm...we liked his athleticism...ummm...he should be a good Top 4 two-way defender...ummm...we were going to take him at 35th if we didn't take him here." is not the kinda stuff you really want to hear about a top pick in a pivotal draft.  If he's really THIS good, it should be easy to explain why in a way that fans will understand.

Edited June 24, 2019 by kipwinger

[krsmith17 7,191]

39 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Drafting Seider at 6 overall and taking 3 Dmen in the first two rounds, I think is a nod, however small, to Yzerman's confidence in our depth in our forward pool as well.

I may be reading too much into it, but I think this entire draft may say something about Yzerman's confidence in Veleno as a legit 2C... At least that's my hope...

I still believe that Yzerman feels he took the best player available at 6. I think at the very least, he feels like Seider is on par with Zegras / Cozens or whoever else he may have been looking at. I don't think Yzerman would take the lesser player to fill a positional need. Just doesn't make any sense to me...

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

5 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I may be reading too much into it, but I think this entire draft may say something about Yzerman's confidence in Veleno as a legit 2C... At least that's my hope...

I still believe that Yzerman feels he took the best player available at 6. I think at the very least, he feels like Seider is on par with Zegras / Cozens or whoever else he may have been looking at. I don't think Yzerman would take the lesser player to fill a positional need. Just doesn't make any sense to me...

3 of the 4 first picks were dmen and with some of the names available on the board I don’t think that just so happened to be cause they were the bpa

53 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Drafting Seider at 6 overall and taking 3 Dmen in the first two rounds, I think is a nod, however small, to Yzerman's confidence in our depth in our forward pool as well.

Up front for a young forward core he has:

Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha
Athanasiou

With Zadina, Rasmussen, Veleno, Berggren, Smith, Svechnikov, and Hirose on the way

Out back for a young defense he has:

Hronek - Bowey

With Cholowski, McIsaac, and Lindstrom on the way

That forward depth looks pretty nice going forward. Even if Svechnikov, Smith, Berggren, and one of Veleno/Rasmussen/Zadina were to bust you'd probably be alright in future years. On D however, if either of Cholowski or McIsaac bust the future looks pretty poopy. Adding Seider, Tuomisto, and Johansson to that list of potentials is a big step in the right direction.

 

Can’t wait till out forward depth gets better next season with our lottery pick  

[krsmith17 7,191]

3 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I don't think enough is being made about the fact that his kid is from a German league. There is NOT a big track record of success, particularly at the higher end of the draft, coming out of Germany.  People legitimately questioned Alex Newhook because he played in the BCHL last season, but it appears everyone is basically fine with using a top ten pick on a guy from a league that has NEVER produced a top ten talent. 

The BCHL is also a MUCH lesser league than the DEL. Hockey is growing in all European countries and I expect the sport to continue to grow in Germany. I know Draisaitl played junior in Canada, but he still played a large portion of his hockey in Germany, and he was drafted 3rd overall. I'm not too worried about picking a player in more obscure leagues, but after they're drafted, I would prefer them to come over to North America to continue their development.

[kipwinger 8,520]

17 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I may be reading too much into it, but I think this entire draft may say something about Yzerman's confidence in Veleno as a legit 2C... At least that's my hope...

I still believe that Yzerman feels he took the best player available at 6. I think at the very least, he feels like Seider is on par with Zegras / Cozens or whoever else he may have been looking at. I don't think Yzerman would take the lesser player to fill a positional need. Just doesn't make any sense to me...

If that's the case then Yzerman should be fired on the spot.  You don't say "We're good at center because this kid we already have MIGHT be a solid 2C"  That would be absolutely terrible strategy.  The whole reason you take the Filip Hroneks of the world is because you can't bank on the guy you liked better (Cholowski) being as good.  I'm actually good with Seider AND Tuomisto, and I don't think it necessarily HAD to be one or the other. I'm annoyed that neither seem to have the kind of game changing upside that other players had at 6 and 35. There's always risk involved on draft day, and Yzerman and Co. seem more comfortable with the risk that the guys they took will only turn into good (but not great) players over the risk that they guys they like would still be there later in the draft.  Essentially, "we want Mortiz Seider, regardless of what his upside is, and we don't think he'll be available at 35".  My preferred strategy would have been, "which player at 6th has the best chance of being a star player".  Maybe that's one in the same for Yzerman vis-a-vis Seider, but if so then it should be easy to explain why you think he'll be that good because nobody else seemed to think so. 

6 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

The BCHL is also a MUCH lesser league than the DEL. Hockey is growing in all European countries and I expect the sport to continue to grow in Germany. I know Draisaitl played junior in Canada, but he still played a large portion of his hockey in Germany, and he was drafted 3rd overall. I'm not too worried about picking a player in more obscure leagues, but after they're drafted, I would prefer them to come over to North America to continue their development.

I'd venture to guess that WAY more NHLers developed through the BCHL than through the various minor German leagues.  Saying the BCHL is a "lesser league" is true only in the sense that it's not a men's league.  But in terms of each league's track record of developing high level NHL players it's not even close. 

Edited June 24, 2019 by kipwinger

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

27 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I think your logic is spot on. I've argued elsewhere that we have a good crop for forwards.  But there are two things wrong with that strategy.  First, in this year's draft with a reasonably high pick we passed on guys with "elite" offensive upside (which is never a great plan) to provide more depth.  We don't have any game breaking talent, and that's a problem.  Depth is great, but a team full of Tyler Bertuzzi's get's crushed by a team full of Tyler Bertuzzi's and one Sidney Crosby or Artemi Panarin or Nikita Kucherov or whomever.

Second, while our "fowards" as a group look good, our center depth doesn't.  This draft puts HUGE pressure on Veleno to be a high-end top six center.  Something that's still very much up in the air.  Adding a Cozens, Zegras, or even a Krebs or Newhook takes a ton of pressure off Veleno, and Larkin, going forward.  This is, of course, assuming that neither Rasmussen or AA are in the long terms plans at center (and I'd argue they shouldn't be). 

 

8 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I may be reading too much into it, but I think this entire draft may say something about Yzerman's confidence in Veleno as a legit 2C... At least that's my hope...

I still believe that Yzerman feels he took the best player available at 6. I think at the very least, he feels like Seider is on par with Zegras / Cozens or whoever else he may have been looking at. I don't think Yzerman would take the lesser player to fill a positional need. Just doesn't make any sense to me...

Basically, what KR said

I think it's probably also some small nod towards Veleno, Rasmussen, and Athanasiou. Yzerman might feel more than comfortable with those 3 as future C's going forward. I certainty felt more comfortable at C than D before the draft.

15 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

The AHL is also a stronger league, albeit not by a huge margin, which would be better for his development. Not to mention playing on North American ice, and being right in the backyard of the big club, for better resources, training, eating, etc... Playing another year in the DEL wouldn't be the worst thing, but I personally hope he makes the jump to the AHL... I'd also be able to watch a lot more Grand Rapids games than Adler Mannheim, so there's also that...

Either way, really looking forward to see what the kid is all about in development camp this week!

 

9 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I don't think enough is being made about the fact that his kid is from a German league. There is NOT a big track record of success, particularly at the higher end of the draft, coming out of Germany.  People legitimately questioned Alex Newhook because he played in the BCHL last season, but it appears everyone is basically fine with using a top ten pick on a guy from a league that has NEVER produced a top ten talent. I mean, somebody's gotta be the first, but I haven't seen enough of Seider to make me feel confident that he's the one.  Also, I think the team (led by Yzerman) has done a TERRIBLE job selling this kid to the fans. "Ummm...we liked his athleticism...ummm...he should be a good Top 4 two-way defender...ummm...we were going to take him at 35th if we didn't take him here." is not the kinda stuff you really want to hear about a top pick in a pivotal draft.  If he's really THIS good, it should be easy to explain why in a way that fans will understand.

There are so few players coming out of the DEL that there isn't even a reliable translation factor.

Factor for the AHL as of 2017: 0.47
For Swiss, Finland, and National College Hockey: 0.43
For College Hockey East: 0.38
For Big-10: 0.33

My guess is the DEL probably falls somewhere between 0.33 and 0.43

I think one of the reasons Seider was ranked 15 or below is because he was in the DEL. I think a player like himself would've been ranked around top10 had he played in Sweden or Finland or something like this. That's just speculation though.
 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

6 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I'd venture to guess that WAY more NHLers developed through the BCHL than through the various minor German leagues.  Saying the BCHL is a "lesser league" is true only in the sense that it's not a men's league.  But in terms of each league's track record of developing high level NHL players it's not even close. 

Yeah but by that logic high schools and midget programs in NA have also developed more NHL talent than the DEL. I have no problem taking talented players from non-traditional markets personally. 

[kipwinger 8,520]

1 minute ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Yeah but by that logic high schools and midget programs in NA have also developed more NHL talent than the DEL. I have no problem taking talented players from non-traditional markets personally. 

Yeah, that's a logical fallacy though.  Reductio ad absurdum.  Nobody is saying you should scout American high school hockey more than German men's leagues.  I'm saying that when there are still VERY talented hockey players on the board, and you're trying to decide who's going to be better than who, one thing to look at is whether or not this player comes from a place that actually develops good hockey players.  Particularly if you're planning on reaching as much as Yzerman seemed to reach here.  I genuinely don't mind Seider as a player.  As best I can tell he's a decent enough prospect.  But there are enough question marks about him to make me question whether reaching on him was a smart choice when Cozens and Zegras were still available.  And one of those question marks is that he played his entire hockey career in a country that produces less NHL players than Slovenia. 

[krsmith17 7,191]

18 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

If that's the case then Yzerman should be fired on the spot.  You don't say "We're good at center because this kid we already have MIGHT be a solid 2C"  That would be absolutely terrible strategy.  The whole reason you take the Filip Hroneks of the world is because you can't bank on the guy you liked better (Cholowski) being as good.  I'm actually good with Seider AND Tuomisto, and I don't think it necessarily HAD to be one or the other. I'm annoyed that neither seem to have the kind of game changing upside that other players had at 6 and 35. There's always risk involved on draft day, and Yzerman and Co. seem more comfortable with the risk that the guys they took will only turn into good (but not great) players over the risk that they guys they like would still be there later in the draft.  Essentially, "we want Mortiz Seider, regardless of what his upside is, and we don't think he'll be available at 35".  My preferred strategy would have been, "which player at 6th has the best chance of being a star player".  Maybe that's one in the same for Yzerman vis-a-vis Seider, but if so then it should be easy to explain why you think he'll be that good because nobody else seemed to think so. 

I'm not saying we didn't take any centers, only because of Veleno, but I do believe Yzerman, and the organization in general may have more faith in our center depth than you do.

The bold is just your opinion. An opinion that doesn't seem to match that of Yzerman and co...

25 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I'd venture to guess that WAY more NHLers developed through the BCHL than through the various minor German leagues.  Saying the BCHL is a "lesser league" is true only in the sense that it's not a men's league.  But in terms of each league's track record of developing high level NHL players it's not even close. 

This seems like a pretty dumb argument, since one league is Canadian, and one league is German. Of course the Canadian one is going to produce more talent. That doesn't mean that the German one can't produce elite talent...

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

3 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

And one of those question marks is that he played his entire hockey career in a country that produces less NHL players than Slovenia. 

Are being sarcastic? I don't think Slovenia has produced a single NHLer outside of Anze Kopitar. Correct me if I'm wrong.

5 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Yeah, that's a logical fallacy though.  Reductio ad absurdum.  Nobody is saying you should scout American high school hockey more than German men's leagues.  I'm saying that when there are still VERY talented hockey players on the board, and you're trying to decide who's going to be better than who, one thing to look at is whether or not this player comes from a place that actually develops good hockey players.  Particularly if you're planning on reaching as much as Yzerman seemed to reach here.  I genuinely don't mind Seider as a player.  As best I can tell he's a decent enough prospect.  But there are enough question marks about him to make me question whether reaching on him was a smart choice when Cozens and Zegras were still available.  And one of those question marks is that he played his entire hockey career in a country that produces less NHL players than Slovenia. 

I don't disagree with you, but I wasn't responding to that.

24 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I'd venture to guess that WAY more NHLers developed through the BCHL than through the various minor German leagues.  Saying the BCHL is a "lesser league" is true only in the sense that it's not a men's league.  But in terms of each league's track record of developing high level NHL players it's not even close. 

I'm sure the USHL and AJHL and some other kids leagues produce a lot of NHL talent too. I just think it's apples to oranges. I take a kid keeping up and shining in the DEL at 17 more seriously than I do a kid blowing out the AJHL at 17, regardless of the amount of talent either league produces. Lets not forget, Germany doesn't produce a lot of young talent, but the DEL still has lots of former NHLers playing in it. Mannheim alone had Andrew Dejardins, Luke Adam, Marcel Goc, and like 5 or 6 other former NHL/AHL players on the team.

[kipwinger 8,520]

3 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I'm not saying we didn't take any centers, only because of Veleno, but I do believe Yzerman, and the organization in general may have more faith in our center depth than you do.

The bold is just your opinion. An opinion that doesn't seem to match that of Yzerman and co...

This seems like a pretty dumb argument, since one league is Canadian, and one league is German. Of course the Canadian one is going to produce more talent. That doesn't mean that the German one can't produce elite talent...

No s***, I'm giving my opinion on the draft.  One that differs considerably from Steve Yzerman's.  That's the whole point of the post.  

Also, I didn't say the German league CAN'T produce elite talent.  I'm saying it never has.  And when you're considering reaching for a player, while other high end prospects are still on the table, you might want to consider where that player came from.  Why does it matter?  Because even if you have all the physical tools, if you've been playing with or against a bunch of puds you haven't been developing your skill in the same way that guys in Canadian leagues are. Essentially, it's easier to score on bad goalies so your shot doesn't have to be as good. It's easier to defend bad fowards so your positioning doesn't have to be as good.  And so when you finally get to the AHL it might be the first time you've had to do things right, and you're trying to do it against better players than you've ever seen in your life.  So the margin of error for Seider to gain the kind of skills he may not have developed in Germany (because of the aforementioned puds) is going to be narrower than for a UNDTP kid like Zegras who's been playing with other NHL caliber talent for years. 

[kipwinger 8,520]

25 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Are being sarcastic? I don't think Slovenia has produced a single NHLer outside of Anze Kopitar. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I don't disagree with you, but I wasn't responding to that.

I'm sure the USHL and AJHL and some other kids leagues produce a lot of NHL talent too. I just think it's apples to oranges. I take a kid keeping up and shining in the DEL at 17 more seriously than I do a kid blowing out the AJHL at 17, regardless of the amount of talent either league produces. Lets not forget, Germany doesn't produce a lot of young talent, but the DEL still has lots of former NHLers playing in it. Mannheim alone had Andrew Dejardins, Luke Adam, Marcel Goc, and like 5 or 6 other former NHL/AHL players on the team.

I was being sarcastic.  Germany is a country of 80 million people and produces almost no NHLers.  For comparison's sake, Finland is a country of 5 million people and produces a ton of NHLers.  I conclude, therefore, that the quality of hockey in German is not very high and the quality of hockey in Finland (again, for argument's sake) is quite high.  I've explained in a post above why developing in a country where the hockey isn't very good could be detrimental to long term success, but it goes something like this: PK Subban played against (and with) Steven Stamkos since he was a kid, Trevor Zegras has been shooting on Spencer Knight every day at practice for years, Mortiz Seider has played against puds his entire life (including the four of five AHL washouts and NHL journeymen you mentioned above). 

Why does this all matter?  Because when you combine this information with a few other things it suggests that this pick has a lower probability of success for the organization than other picks that were still available.  And this is a pivotal draft for the organization, so lower probability of success isn't good.  What other things?  First, Seider doesn't seem to have a ton of offensive upside based on his history of production in a 2nd tier league. Second, Steve Yzerman has NEVER drafted and developed a defenseman who was any good.  Third, while Steve Yzerman knows more about hockey than I do, so does every other talent evaluator in the hockey industry and most of them weren't as high on Seider as Steve was. Fourth, guys who play defense well but don't score a ton are NOT that hard to come by.  If you REALLY need a guy with Danny Dekeyser's floor and Ryan McDonagh's ceiling you can get one pretty easily.  How do I know?  Because we got Dekeyser for nothing and McDonagh was traded to Tampa. 

Don't get me wrong, I REALLY hope Moritz Seider turns out to be a John Carlson.  I really really really do.  But for all the reasons above I just think the odds of that aren't as good as Zegras turning into a Claude Giroux, or a Cozens turning into a Seguin.  And that either of those options would have helped us more than having a Ryan McDonagh or a Colton Paryako or a Brent Seabrook. 

Edited June 24, 2019 by kipwinger

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

9 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I was being sarcastic.  Germany is a country of 80 million people and produces almost no NHLers.  For comparison's sake, Finland is a country of 5 million people and produces a ton of NHLers.  I conclude, therefore, that the quality of hockey in German is not very high and the quality of hockey in Finland (again, for argument's sake) is quite high.  I've explained in a post above why developing in a country where the hockey isn't very good could be detrimental to long term success, but it goes something like this: PK Subban played against (and with) Steven Stamkos since he was a kid, Trevor Zegras has been shooting on Spencer Knight every day at practice for years, Mortiz Seider has played against puds his entire life (including the four of five AHL washouts and NHL journeymen you mentioned above).

Now you're just being anecdotal. Filip Zadina spent most of his professional career prior to being drafted shooting on Milan Kloucek (Who?), Patrik Cerveny (Who?), Brandon Maxwell (Who?), Alexis Gravel (Who?), and Blade Mann-Dixon (Who?). Guess his long terms success is in question. The Czech league doesn't produce enough players to get a translation factor either. Damn.

Call them Puds all you want... but the CHL is filled with guys who will never even sniff the DEL. Meanwhile the DEL is riddled with guys who have already played 100+ or 200+ NHL games. There's even guys with 400+ and 1000+ NHL games played.

19 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

First, Seider doesn't seem to have a ton of offensive upside based on his history of production in a 2nd tier league.

He was in a mens league at 17 and his coach admits he was sheltered away from the Ozone and PP. He is expected to return to Mannheim to play the top pairing and the PP next season, unless the Red Wings opt to bring him to the AHL.

When playing among his peers of the same age he is typically over a point-per-game Dman.

33 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Second, Steve Yzerman has NEVER drafted and developed a defenseman who was any good.

You got me. Yzerman sucks at recognizing D talent. Clearly.

36 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Third, while Steve Yzerman knows more about hockey than I do, so does every other talent evaluator in the hockey industry and most of them weren't as high on Seider as Steve was.

I do trust the hockey media more than I trust a pro like Yzerman. After all, when was the last time he even developed a Dman.

39 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Fourth, guys who play defense well but don't score a ton are NOT that hard to come by.  If you REALLY need a guy with Danny Dekeyser's floor and Ryan McDonagh's ceiling you can get one pretty easily.  How do I know?  Because we got Dekeyser for nothing and McDonagh was traded to Tampa.

You're right. Why draft Seider when we can just sign Luke Schenn, or get another Dekeyser FOR FREE?

[kipwinger 8,520]

47 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Now you're just being anecdotal. Filip Zadina spent most of his professional career prior to being drafted shooting on Milan Kloucek (Who?), Patrik Cerveny (Who?), Brandon Maxwell (Who?), Alexis Gravel (Who?), and Blade Mann-Dixon (Who?). Guess his long terms success is in question. The Czech league doesn't produce enough players to get a translation factor either. Damn.

Call them Puds all you want... but the CHL is filled with guys who will never even sniff the DEL. Meanwhile the DEL is riddled with guys who have already played 100+ or 200+ NHL games. There's even guys with 400+ and 1000+ NHL games played.

He was in a mens league at 17 and his coach admits he was sheltered away from the Ozone and PP. He is expected to return to Mannheim to play the top pairing and the PP next season, unless the Red Wings opt to bring him to the AHL.

When playing among his peers of the same age he is typically over a point-per-game Dman.

You got me. Yzerman sucks at recognizing D talent. Clearly.

I do trust the hockey media more than I trust a pro like Yzerman. After all, when was the last time he even developed a Dman.

You're right. Why draft Seider when we can just sign Luke Schenn, or get another Dekeyser FOR FREE?

All valid points.  Well done.  You've convinced me that Seider was the right choice. 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

38 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

All valid points.  Well done.  You've convinced me that Seider was the right choice. 

You've heard about Leftwinger and Owen Tippet...

Now introducing the all new Kipwinger and Trevor Zegras!

[Dabura 12,207]

21 hours ago, Buppy said:

From what I've read, Seider was an Yzerman pick, and it's because he genuinely thinks the kid has very high potential. Objectively speaking, he took a 3rd-tier rated prospect with a 2nd-tier pick. Even if he's wrong it's not any big deal. At least a couple of the 2nd-tier guys are going to come up short as well.

Tuomisto was a Wright pick, and was a bigger reach. Worse given that he plays the same spot as Seider, and that there were still several picks with perceived 1st-round talent. We also already had Hronek, Bowey, Kaski, Lindstrom, plus Regula, Barton, and maybe Saarijarvi on the right side. I'd probably be OK with it if we'd taken Zegras or Cozens with our first.

No real reaches in the rest of the draft. I don't think there's much difference in who a top team would scout for 2nd/3rd round picks, as opposed to a bottom team. Probably a combination of info from both teams went into those picks. I would have been happier with Lavoie, Leason, and Legare in the 2nd, but no one knows if they'll actually be better.

Thanks, Bupster.

Definitely seems like Seider was an Yzerman pick. I didn't know Tuomisto was a Wright pick. I was actually quite pleased with Tuomisto.

Admittedly, I was hoping for a slightly sexier haul, starting with Zegras at 6 and then maybe Lassi Thomson (who went earlier than I'd expected), Egor Afanasyev, and Mikko Kokkonen in the 2nd. But I agree that it's almost splitting hairs with some of these discussions about who we *should've* taken because *that* player was *clearly* the BPA.

And, like I said earlier, Yzerman cleary has strong preferences. I think it's pretty safe to say he knows what he wants his Wings team to look like and play like and that team is the Lightning. Big, mobile defensemen and smallish, hard-working, sneaky-skilled forwards. I don't know if that will make the controversial picks any easier for disappointed Wings fans to accept, but I do believe there's a method to the pereceived madness and it isn't simply drafting for need.

[Dabura 12,207]

4 hours ago, kipwinger said:

I don't think enough is being made about the fact that his kid is from a German league. There is NOT a big track record of success, particularly at the higher end of the draft, coming out of Germany.  People legitimately questioned Alex Newhook because he played in the BCHL last season, but it appears everyone is basically fine with using a top ten pick on a guy from a league that has NEVER produced a top ten talent. I mean, somebody's gotta be the first, but I haven't seen enough of Seider to make me feel confident that he's the one.  Also, I think the team (led by Yzerman) has done a TERRIBLE job selling this kid to the fans. "Ummm...we liked his athleticism...ummm...he should be a good Top 4 two-way defender...ummm...we were going to take him at 35th if we didn't take him here." is not the kinda stuff you really want to hear about a top pick in a pivotal draft.  If he's really THIS good, it should be easy to explain why in a way that fans will understand.

I can't say I've seen a whole lot of the DEL, but what I have seen has given me the impression that it's actually a pretty respectable league and that people should probably be paying more attention to it because "the German wave" could become an actual thing in the coming years. Basically the same deal with Seider: I haven't seen a ton of him, but the few games I have seen sold me on him being worth a top 15 pick and possibly a top 8 pick. I think the whole "lacks skill" thing is overstated. I think people really like their flashy, high-scoring Bowen Byrams and have been conditioned to assume that a young defensemen who isn't piling up points in his draft year "is the kind of guy you take in the 2nd or 3rd or 4th round," even if he's playing in a pro league. I think we could see a change in that mentality in the coming years. Indeed, that change is arguably already taking place.

Would I have taken Seider at 6? No. But I'd been saying for the past six months that it's really hard to pick and choose between the kids in that range. If a realistic projection for guys like Zegras and Cozens and Krebs and Newhook is a 2C or a first-line winger...and a realistic projection for Seider is a 2D who logs 25 minutes a night...I don't know that there's much of a difference there. If anything, I'm tempted to say you should take the defenseman in that scenario, because good top-pairing defensemen are so hard to come by (as we well know). And, I mean, 6th overall is a swing-for-the-fences pick, no? Why not invest it in the Alex Pietrangelo Cream Dream Fund?

"F*** outta here. 2019 Moritz Seider is not comparable to a young Alex Pietrangelo."

Are we sure about that? Are we really, truly sure about that?

http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/player/6590

Quote

Has excellent size, two-way ability and loads of two-way acumen. Plays with poise and excels with the man advantage; he has a quality point shot. An excellent skater for such a big man, he's also a good playmaker. Can be accused of being a little inconsistent when it comes to the offensive side of the game. Injuries are also a bit of a concern, mostly because he owns a lanky frame. Isn't the most accurate shooter from the point.

I get where you're coming from re: Newhook, but, to be fair, the DEL is a pro league. Newhook torched a Junior A league. If Seider spends the 2018-19 season in the WHL, he probably crushes it. If Byram spends his season in the DEL, maybe he doesn't crush it.

As for the Wings brass doing a bad job of selling Seider to the fans...I dunno, that doesn't really bother me. *shrug* Yzerman's pretty no-nonsense and boring and he's been known to undersell things. It's possible he's shielding Seider. "He could be our Hedman" isn't really something I'd want to saddle a kid with just to please fans and media. I'll go ahead and say Seider could be our Hedman, but I'm not the GM of the Wings.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Dabura

[kipwinger 8,520]

27 minutes ago, Dabura said:

I can't say I've seen a whole lot of the DEL, but what I have seen has given me the impression that it's actually a pretty respectable league and that people should probably be paying more attention to it because "the German wave" could become an actual thing in the coming years. Basically the same deal with Seider: I haven't seen a ton of him, but the few games I have seen sold me on him being worth a top 15 pick and possibly a top 8 pick. I think the whole "lacks skill" thing is overstated. I think people really like their flashy, high-scoring Bowen Byrams and have been conditioned to assume that a young defensemen who isn't piling up points in his draft year "is the kind of guy you take in the 2nd or 3rd or 4th round," even if he's playing in a pro league. I think we could see a change in that mentality in the coming years. Indeed, that change is arguably already taking place.

Would I have taken Seider at 6? No. But I'd been saying for the past six months that it's really hard to pick and choose between the kids in that range. If a realistic projection for guys like Zegras and Cozens and Krebs and Newhook is a 2C or a first-line winger...and a realistic projection for Seider is a 2D who logs 25 minutes a night...I don't know that there's much of a difference there. If anything, I'm tempted to say you go for the defenseman in that scenario, because good top-pairing defensemen are so hard to come by (as we well know). And, I mean, 6th overall is a swing-for-the-fences pick, no? Why not invest it in the Alex Pietrangelo Cream Dream Fund?

"F*** outta here. 2019 Moritz Seider is not comparable to a young Alex Pietrangelo."

Are we sure about that? Are we really, truly sure about that?

http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/player/6590

I get where you're coming from re: Newhook, but, to be fair, the DEL is a pro league. Newhook torched a Junior A league. If Seider spends the 2018-19 season in the WHL, he probably crushes it. If Byram spends his season in the DEL, maybe he doesn't crush it.

As for the Wings brass doing a bad job of selling Seider to the fans...I dunno, that doesn't really bother me. *shrug* Yzerman's pretty no-nonsense and boring and he's been known to undersell things. It's possible he's shielding Seider. "He could be our Hedman" isn't really something I'd want to saddle a kid with just to please fans and media. I'll go ahead and say Seider could be our Hedman, but I'm not the GM of the Wings.

England has a "pro league".  The ECHL is a pro league.  Doesn't mean it's a good pro league.  My only point is that there's not enough of a history of producing quality hockey players that I think it's worth reaching to take a guy from there unless he's obviously dominating, which Seider wasn't.

Also, saying he "could" be our Hedman is no different than saying he "could" be another Dekeyser.  This was a deep enough draft that we didn't have to take those types of risks with the 6th pick.  I'm not sure whether Seider will be any good in the NHL or not. There's always a risk that a guy will bust.  I'm just saying I feel a LOT more confident that Dylan Cozens or Trevor Zegras will hit their ceilings than Mortiz Seider will hit his given the information that I have available to me, the average fan.

Edited June 24, 2019 by kipwinger

[Dabura 12,207]

21 hours ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Outside of hedman that list of d drafted is write home about lol , makes more depressed now ... thanks haha

Point taken.

[Dabura 12,207]

1 minute ago, kipwinger said:

England has a "pro league".  The ECHL is a pro league.  Doesn't mean it's a good pro league.  My only point is that there's not enough of a history of producing quality hockey players that I think it's worth reaching to take a guy from there unless he's obviously dominating, which Seider wasn't. .

I just feel like the people who are criticizing the pick are doing so because bloggers and media slept on Seider, not because they've seen Seider play and didn't like what they saw. "Corey Pronman had him going later in the 1st and he said he lacks puck skill, so this was definitely a reach." Which, I mean, fair enough. I'm not trying to flex on anyone. I'm questioning this narrative that Seider was, without a doubt, a reach.

I also think this whole thing about "dominating" Euro leagues is built on shaky ground. I think it's a superficial, overly reductive way of looking at Euro prospects.

7 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Also, saying he "could" be our Hedman is no different than saying he "could" be another Dekeyser.

So we agree that talk is cheap and Yzerman doesn't need to go out of his way to sell Seider to fans and media.

8 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

This was a deep enough draft that we didn't have to take those types of risks with the 6th pick.  I'm not sure whether Seider will be any good in the NHL or not. There's always a risk that a guy will bust.  I'm just saying I feel a LOT more confident that Dylan Cozens or Trevor Zegras will hit their ceilings than Mortiz Seider will hit his given the information that I have available to me, the average fan.

I guess I just don't really see it as much of a risk. I was really hoping for Zegras, but I had concerns with him. It's very possible he's a middling middle-six winger in the NHL. Cozens is bigger and faster than his peers and that probably artificially inflated his scoring. At his core he's a solid two-way player who doesn't necessarily own gamebreaking abilities beyond his skating. I'm really not sure there's significantly less risk with a guy like him than there is with a guy like Seider.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

Even though I liked Seider a lot going into the draft, I wouldn't have taken him at 6. But that's only because of the narrative built by the media and fans around who we should take. I probably would've taken Zegras out of obligation, even though I'm not infatuated with the guy or anything.

I'm glad Yzerman has bigger cajones than I. And I think it's a very good sign of things to come.

Stevie's wild ride has begun and there's no brakes on this train. Next stop: Winning.

57 minutes ago, Dabura said:

I just feel like the people who are criticizing the pick are doing so because bloggers and media slept on Seider, not because they've seen Seider play and didn't like what they saw. "Corey Pronman had him going later in the 1st and he said he lacks puck skill, so this was definitely a reach." Which, I mean, fair enough. I'm not trying to flex on anyone. I'm questioning this narrative that Seider was, without a doubt, a reach.

Corey Pronman can suck Yzerman's Florida sized dick

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

1 hour ago, Dabura said:

I can't say I've seen a whole lot of the DEL, but what I have seen has given me the impression that it's actually a pretty respectable league and that people should probably be paying more attention to it because "the German wave" could become an actual thing in the coming years. Basically the same deal with Seider: I haven't seen a ton of him, but the few games I have seen sold me on him being worth a top 15 pick and possibly a top 8 pick. I think the whole "lacks skill" thing is overstated. I think people really like their flashy, high-scoring Bowen Byrams and have been conditioned to assume that a young defensemen who isn't piling up points in his draft year "is the kind of guy you take in the 2nd or 3rd or 4th round," even if he's playing in a pro league. I think we could see a change in that mentality in the coming years. Indeed, that change is arguably already taking place.

Really seems like USA, Switzerland, and Germany are on the rise, if only slightly so far, as hockey countries. That's just the general feeling I get. They'll probably never compare to the bonafide hockey countries, but it's a start.

[Dabura 12,207]

6 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Really seems like USA, Switzerland, and Germany are on the rise, if only slightly so far, as hockey countries. That's just the general feeling I get. They'll probably never compare to the bonafide hockey countries, but it's a start.

I know some Canadians who believe the US eclipsing Canada is an inevitability. And I guess it makes sense. There's way more people in the US. Hockey is always gaining new fans in the US. USA Hockey is going HAM on its "Hockey is for everyone" initiative and trying to remove or at least reduce the standard entry barriers that have, historically, helped keep hockey firmly in the "niche sport" category in the States (high costs, difficulty finding rinks, the perception that it's strictly a sport for white people, etc.)

tl;dr Canada: "THIS IS MY FINAL FORM!" USA: "THIS ISN"T EVEN MY FINAL FORM!"

[Buppy 1,720]

If we were to all post a list of the 10 best players in the NHL last year, the combined list could easily be 20-30 names. If we can't agree on how to judge players in the same league based on hindsight, how much should we be upset about some disagreement on how a bunch of 17/18 yo kids playing in many different leagues all over the world will turn out 5-6 years from now? Every guy we could have picked had someone who didn't think he should go that high, and all of Zegras, Cozens, Caufiled, and Boldy were ranked lower than Seider by at least one person.

Yes, it was a reach, but not a particularly big one. No big deal, no matter how it turns out.