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HoweFan

Buyers or Sellers ?

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6 hours ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Both hopefully.

 

Buy List:

Stone

Karlsson

Trouba

 

Sell List:

Nyquist

Howard

Dekeyser

Ericsson

Nielsen

Abdelkader

Helm

Erik Karlsson isn't the player he was before his knee surgery.  I would not invest in him at anywhere close to the $ or term he'd want.

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3 hours ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

ankle?

https://www.nhl.com/news/erik-karlsson-of-ottawa-senators-begins-recovering-from-foot-surgery/c-290024808

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/erik-karlsson-says-doctors-removed-half-ankle-bone/

Seems no one knows. (Including Karlsson. There's no such thing as an ankle "bone". It's a joint.) But mackel's right. Karlsson is not the same player. He is damaged goods. Plus he had an Achilles injury 5 years ago as well. The one part of the body that a skater needs to be strong and sturdy keeps failing him. Stay away. Someone is about to pay A LOT of money for Erik Karlsson: The Sequel. And we all know that sequels are never as good as the original.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

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11 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

https://www.nhl.com/news/erik-karlsson-of-ottawa-senators-begins-recovering-from-foot-surgery/c-290024808

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/erik-karlsson-says-doctors-removed-half-ankle-bone/

Seems no one knows. (Including Karlsson. There's no such thing as an ankle "bone". It's a joint.) But mackel's right. Karlsson is not the same player. He is damaged goods. Plus he had an Achilles injury 5 years ago as well. The one part of the body that a skater needs to be strong and sturdy keeps failing him. Stay away. Someone is about to pay A LOT of money for Erik Karlsson: The Sequel. And we all know that sequels are never as good as the original.

This has always been my concern with Karlsson.

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3 hours ago, Dabura said:

Would that it were that simple.

The point was that there are game changers available in the 5-10 range frequently enough that having the assets to move into the top ten is generally worth it.  Particularly if game breaking talent is what you're missing out on.  Certainly a higher probability of success doing that then hoping you get one of those rare gems who turn into top end talent despite being picked later in the draft. 

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7 hours ago, kipwinger said:

The point was that there are game changers available in the 5-10 range frequently enough that having the assets to move into the top ten is generally worth it.  Particularly if game breaking talent is what you're missing out on.  Certainly a higher probability of success doing that then hoping you get one of those rare gems who turn into top end talent despite being picked later in the draft. 

Don't get me wrong, I know where you're coming from and I agree that this is something the Wings should take a hard look at if our first pick falls outside of the top 10. But it's one thing to say, "OK, we trade some stuff for a shot at drafting a guy who looks like he's going to be a legit gamechanger," and it's another thing entirely to 1) pull off that trade and 2) really hit a true home run with that pick (such that three years later you have zero regrets about trading what you had to trade in order to get your man).

Once you get outside the top three, it's pretty much a crapshoot. The older I get, the less certain I am that the 6th overall pick in any given draft is infinitely more valuable than the 12th overall pick in that same draft. We can talk about "gamebreaking ability" and whatnot, but there's always going to be multiple players that appear to have that kind of upside and most of them will ultimately fail to deliver on that promise. And every night Ken Daniels is going to tell us about some stud on the opposing team who we now know should've been taken much earlier than he was.

Trading into or within the top 10 pretty much doesn't happen these days and I wouldn't expect the Wings to do it in the upcoming draft. There was talk of the Wings seriously considering trading up in the 2018 draft in order to secure Zadina, but, as we know, Holland didn't go through with it. And it's a good thing he didn't, as we ended up getting both Zadina and Veleno "for free."

Maybe trading up into prime draft real estate is one of the things Jimmy D has in mind when he talks about outside-the-box moves. It's certainly possible. But, again, talking about it and doing it -- and knocking it out of the park -- are two different things. Everyone talks about it, almost no one does it.

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10 minutes ago, Dabura said:

Don't get me wrong, I know where you're coming from and I agree that this is something the Wings should take a hard look at if our first pick falls outside of the top 10. But it's one thing to say, "OK, we trade some stuff for a shot at drafting a guy who looks like he's going to be a legit gamechanger," and it's another thing entirely to 1) pull off that trade and 2) really hit a true home run with that pick (such that three years later you have zero regrets about trading what you had to trade in order to get your man).

Once you get outside the top three, it's pretty much a crapshoot. The older I get, the less certain I am that the 6th overall pick in any given draft is infinitely more valuable than the 12th overall pick in that same draft. We can talk about "gamebreaking ability" and whatnot, but there's always going to be multiple players that appear to have that kind of upside and most of them will ultimately fail to deliver on that promise. And every night Ken Daniels is going to tell us about some stud on the opposing team who we now know should've been taken much earlier than he was.

Trading into or within the top 10 pretty much doesn't happen these days and I wouldn't expect the Wings to do it in the upcoming draft. There was talk of the Wings seriously considering trading up in the 2018 draft in order to secure Zadina, but, as we know, Holland didn't go through with it. And it's a good thing he didn't, as we ended up getting both Zadina and Veleno "for free."

Maybe trading up into prime draft real estate is one of the things Jimmy D has in mind when he talks about outside-the-box moves. It's certainly possible. But, again, talking about it and doing it -- and knocking it out of the park -- are two different things. Everyone talks about it, almost no one does it.

As a pessimist to me there's no 'sure things'...I'd just assume stockpile our picks, and pick the best guy available.

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2 hours ago, Dabura said:

Don't get me wrong, I know where you're coming from and I agree that this is something the Wings should take a hard look at if our first pick falls outside of the top 10. But it's one thing to say, "OK, we trade some stuff for a shot at drafting a guy who looks like he's going to be a legit gamechanger," and it's another thing entirely to 1) pull off that trade and 2) really hit a true home run with that pick (such that three years later you have zero regrets about trading what you had to trade in order to get your man).

Once you get outside the top three, it's pretty much a crapshoot. The older I get, the less certain I am that the 6th overall pick in any given draft is infinitely more valuable than the 12th overall pick in that same draft. We can talk about "gamebreaking ability" and whatnot, but there's always going to be multiple players that appear to have that kind of upside and most of them will ultimately fail to deliver on that promise. And every night Ken Daniels is going to tell us about some stud on the opposing team who we now know should've been taken much earlier than he was.

Trading into or within the top 10 pretty much doesn't happen these days and I wouldn't expect the Wings to do it in the upcoming draft. There was talk of the Wings seriously considering trading up in the 2018 draft in order to secure Zadina, but, as we know, Holland didn't go through with it. And it's a good thing he didn't, as we ended up getting both Zadina and Veleno "for free."

Maybe trading up into prime draft real estate is one of the things Jimmy D has in mind when he talks about outside-the-box moves. It's certainly possible. But, again, talking about it and doing it -- and knocking it out of the park -- are two different things. Everyone talks about it, almost no one does it.

That was the point of my original post.  First, that trading from say 12 to 8 is probably much more doable than trading from 15 to 5 (for instance).  And secondly, that you should only do so if your scouts think there's a game changer (like Petterson) who's still available. 

2 hours ago, F.Michael said:

As a pessimist to me there's no 'sure things'...I'd just assume stockpile our picks, and pick the best guy available.

Of course their are no guarantees.  But just because you're not guaranteed doesn't mean you shouldn't increase your odds. 

Normally I'd advocate for picking as often as possible too.  I guess my point is that if we all agree that you need game breaking talent to win a Cup and not just a bunch of mid first rounders, then it might be worth moving up because most of the game breaking talent in the league today comes in the top part of the first round. 

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2 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

That was the point of my original post.  First, that trading from say 12 to 8 is probably much more doable than trading from 15 to 5 (for instance).  And secondly, that you should only do so if your scouts think there's a game changer (like Petterson) who's still available. 

Right. I think I'm coming off as disagreeing with you when I'm more just sort of riffing on the topic of trading up into/within the top 10. "Would that it were that simple" is basically just me lamenting how tricky this whole business is. Even if you identify a guy as "worth it" and you're able to get the necessary pick for a not-entirely-insane price, the odds are still probably against that player becoming anything truly special.

So. Target a player you're over the moon about? Sure. Go for it. The Wings probably aren't getting back to Cup contention without making at least one bold move that pays off in a big way. But you've gotta be careful and you've gotta be really, really sure. Icarus and all that.

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1 hour ago, Dabura said:

Right. I think I'm coming off as disagreeing with you when I'm more just sort of riffing on the topic of trading up into/within the top 10. "Would that it were that simple" is basically just me lamenting how tricky this whole business is. Even if you identify a guy as "worth it" and you're able to get the necessary pick for a not-entirely-insane price, the odds are still probably against that player becoming anything truly special.

So. Target a player you're over the moon about? Sure. Go for it. The Wings probably aren't getting back to Cup contention without making at least one bold move that pays off in a big way. But you've gotta be careful and you've gotta be really, really sure. Icarus and all that.

I honestly don't see much happening in the form of a trade to move down the list...Every rival GM is thinking the same as Holland, and it'll probably cost way too much in order to make it happen.

Again - that's just the pessimist in me.

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