4/9 2019 Draft Lottery GDT - Red Wings vs The World - 8:00 PM ET (NBCSN)

[Akakabuto 1,744]

52 minutes ago, TLGTrico said:

These last 3 years have shown me that the Wings odds will always be less than what their actually listed as, because there will always be someone who moves up from out of the top 10 to get a top 3 pick.  Also, the team with best odds has picked either 1st or 4th in all 4 years of this lottery format.

But the odds actually tell that you will probably drop? We had ha 60 per cent chance to either stay put or drop to 6 with favor to dropping. 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

59 minutes ago, TLGTrico said:

These last 3 years have shown me that the Wings odds will always be less than what their actually listed as, because there will always be someone who moves up from out of the top 10 to get a top 3 pick.  Also, the team with best odds has picked either 1st or 4th in all 4 years of this lottery format.

Has anyone ever told u u should gamble?

[xtrememachine1 795]

10 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

Rigged.

Chicago just recently won 3 Cups in 6 years, there is no way they should be anywhere near a top 5 pick, let alone #3.

Chicago moving so far up and getting 3rd is what's really getting me in all this.  The Wings not winning the lottery, okay fine.  But seeing NJ get another first overall, the Rangers jump ahead of us, the Blackhawks, despite much lesser odds, jumping ahead of us.  Its just BS.  Meanwhile, the teams that actually had bad seasons and need help move down in the draft.  I understand the lottery is in place to prevent teams from tanking, but I feel like this is the other side of the coin here.  This is why we should NOT have a lottery.  We have these teams that have a down year and BOOM all of a sudden they're getting top 3 draft picks while teams that have been missing the playoffs for years or have very little and need something to build around, pick later.

For the Wings, we'll still get a high end prospect to go with our other high end prospects we've picked the last couple years, but it'd just be nice if we ended up with the easy road for once and not the tough/lucky road.

[LeftWinger 4,934]

Exactly. 3 out of 6 Cups less than 10 years ago disqualifies any sense of having a top 3 pick in the draft. Same with picking 1st already within 5 years.

 

[Dabura 12,206]

6 minutes ago, xtrememachine1 said:

Chicago moving so far up and getting 3rd is what's really getting me in all this.  The Wings not winning the lottery, okay fine.  But seeing NJ get another first overall, the Rangers jump ahead of us, the Blackhawks, despite much lesser odds, jumping ahead of us.  Its just BS.  Meanwhile, the teams that actually had bad seasons and need help move down in the draft.

But the Devils and Rangers did have bad seasons and do need help. Even the Blackhawks were looking like a lock for a bottom-five finish through the first half of the season.

[gcom007 1,465]

10 minutes ago, xtrememachine1 said:

Chicago moving so far up and getting 3rd is what's really getting me in all this.  The Wings not winning the lottery, okay fine.  But seeing NJ get another first overall, the Rangers jump ahead of us, the Blackhawks, despite much lesser odds, jumping ahead of us.  Its just BS.  Meanwhile, the teams that actually had bad seasons and need help move down in the draft.  I understand the lottery is in place to prevent teams from tanking, but I feel like this is the other side of the coin here.  This is why we should NOT have a lottery.  We have these teams that have a down year and BOOM all of a sudden they're getting top 3 draft picks while teams that have been missing the playoffs for years or have very little and need something to build around, pick later.

For the Wings, we'll still get a high end prospect to go with our other high end prospects we've picked the last couple years, but it'd just be nice if we ended up with the easy road for once and not the tough/lucky road.

Yes. I’m still open minded about a lottery, but as we were discussing yesterday, I think whatever changes happen, the lottery or new system should be limited to the bottom 8 teams. There’s a lot more “need” there when you look at points in the season and it eliminates playoff bubble teams as said possibly having an off year from potentially shooting way up like Chicago. It really doesn’t seem right that a team like Chicago is picking ahead of us. That to me is evidence that this system needs tweaking at the very least. 

[xtrememachine1 795]

49 minutes ago, Dabura said:

But the Devils and Rangers did have bad seasons and do need help. Even the Blackhawks were looking like a lock for a bottom-five finish through the first half of the season.

The Devils just drafted first overall and got Nico Hischier a couple years ago.  Taylor Hall won the Hart last year and made the playoffs.  They're not exactly hurting for talent and injuries kind of derailed this season for them, not lack of talent.  Neither are the Blackhawks.  Yeah, sure they missed the playoffs again, but they also still have superstars from their dynasty.  They were a 50 win team two years ago and they're a lot closer to being a Cup contender right now than a team in rebuilding mode.

It was funny, earlier this year the Pens looked like they might not make the playoffs either and I was like "No way!  They better starting winning some games and get in the playoffs.  That's all we need is for them to miss the playoffs, somehow miraculously win the lottery, get Jack Hughes and be a Cup contender for another 10 years."  And while this exact scenario didn't play out, we do have a team with multiple superstars and multiple Stanley Cup championships in recent years miraculously getting a top 3 pick because of a down year and the damn lottery.

[Dabura 12,206]

30 minutes ago, xtrememachine1 said:

The Devils just drafted first overall and got Nico Hischier a couple years ago.  Taylor Hall won the Hart last year and made the playoffs.  They're not exactly hurting for talent and injuries kind of derailed this season for them, not lack of talent.  Neither are the Blackhawks.  Yeah, sure they missed the playoffs again, but they also still have superstars from their dynasty.  They were a 50 win team two years ago and they're a lot closer to being a Cup contender right now than a team in rebuilding mode.

It was funny, earlier this year the Pens looked like they might not make the playoffs either and I was like "No way!  They better starting winning some games and get in the playoffs.  That's all we need is for them to miss the playoffs, somehow miraculously win the lottery, get Jack Hughes and be a Cup contender for another 10 years."  And while this exact scenario didn't play out, we do have a team with multiple superstars and multiple Stanley Cup championships in recent years miraculously getting a top 3 pick because of a down year and the damn lottery.

I'm not a fan of the present system, but I think you're kind of splitting hairs.

The Devils are a mediocre-at-best team, even with Taylor Hall. Their head coach said as much when Tampa bounched them in the first round.

The Rangers are no better than us.

It sucks to see the Blackhawks picking before us, but I personally don't believe there's much of a difference in quality between the player who gets picked 3rd overall in this draft and the player who gets picked 6th overall.

[AtlantaHotWings 973]

1 hour ago, gcom007 said:

Yes. I’m still open minded about a lottery, but as we were discussing yesterday, I think whatever changes happen, the lottery or new system should be limited to the bottom 8 teams. There’s a lot more “need” there when you look at points in the season and it eliminates playoff bubble teams as said possibly having an off year from potentially shooting way up like Chicago. It really doesn’t seem right that a team like Chicago is picking ahead of us. That to me is evidence that this system needs tweaking at the very least. 

Agree 100% don't think anyone would whine if the 8th place team got the first pick. But a team that essentially finished with a shot at a wild card spot Chicago(-6) shouldn't leapfrog to the 3rd spot.  I still like the play in for draft points pick in order of points after you have been eliminated teams like Ottawa would have had the chance to gather points before us, us before AZ, Montreal, Chicago etc.  Doubt it changes anytime soon but the concept seems solid on the surface. 

[TLGTrico 616]

I don't know why people are surprised about Chicago moving up from 12 to 3.  This is the 3rd year in a row that something similar has happened.  It's at the point where I'm expecting it to happen every year as long as they continue to use this format.

[LeftWinger 4,934]

Can't say it much better than this.

There is NO reason why a team that just missed the playoffs should be drafting ahead of teams that have struggled and lost all year and were out of the playoffs since before the TDL. Not unless they've traded for that pick of course. In the same breath, you can't keep rewarding the same teams over and over.

Edited April 11, 2019 by LeftWinger

[TLGTrico 616]

I think I can safely say I'm over it now.  I've already put my created Jack Hughes in New Jersey's system

[krsmith17 7,191]

13 minutes ago, LeftWinger said:

Can't say it much better than this.

There is NO reason why a team that just missed the playoffs should be drafting ahead of teams that have struggled and lost all year and were out of the playoffs since before the TDL. Not unless they've traded for that pick of course. In the same breath, you can't keep rewarding the same teams over and over.

Burke is a jackass, but I agree with him on this one...

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

13 minutes ago, TLGTrico said:

I think I can safely say I'm over it now.  I've already put my created Jack Hughes in New Jersey's system

Wrong quote. Nevermind

Edited April 11, 2019 by The 91 of Ryans

[AtlantaHotWings 973]

11 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Burke is a jackass, but I agree with him on this one...

I concur on both items in this sentence....

Why not take his idea of 5 expand to the last 8 are lottery eligible. Would not his ideas help with parity also and getting "superstars" in each city?

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

So there's a system I really like that I think a buncha fans came up with that I just found out about called "The Gold Plan"

In this system playoff teams are seeded normally at the draft by overall record. But non-playoff teams would be seeded by their record AFTER the TDL. Meaning the non-PO team with the best record after the TDL gets the #1 pick, and so on and so forth. So you can sell off your whole squad at the TDL for picks, but that might severely hurt your chances of getting a Top5 with your first.

Under this system the draft order this year would be:

1. Detroit
2. LA
3. Ottawa (Colorado)
4. NJ
5. Florida
6. NYR
7. Anaheim
8. Vancouver
9. Buffalo
10. Chicago
11. Montreal
12. Edmonton
13. Arizona
14. Minnesota
15. Philly

[krsmith17 7,191]

14 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

So there's a system I really like that I think a buncha fans came up with that I just found out about called "The Gold Plan"

In this system playoff teams are seeded normally at the draft by overall record. But non-playoff teams would be seeded by their record AFTER the TDL. Meaning the non-PO team with the best record after the TDL gets the #1 pick, and so on and so forth. So you can sell off your whole squad at the TDL for picks, but that might severely hurt your chances of getting a Top5 with your first.

Under this system the draft order this year would be:

1. Detroit
2. LA
3. Ottawa (Colorado)
4. NJ
5. Florida
6. NYR
7. Anaheim
8. Vancouver
9. Buffalo
10. Chicago
11. Montreal
12. Edmonton
13. Arizona
14. Minnesota
15. Philly

I brought this up earlier this week in the "2019 Draft" Thread... I absolutely love the idea.

You're wrong on one thing though. It's not based on each non playoff teams record after the trade deadline. It's based on when each team is officially eliminated from the playoffs...

For instance, Ottawa was the first team mathematically eliminated, so they had 13 games to accumulate points, giving them the best odds at the top pick. Montreal and Arizona were both on the bubble and only played one game after being mathematically eliminated, giving them the lowest odds at the top pick. 

Here's the full standings breakdown that I posted in the other thread...

OTT - 13 GP - 12 PTS - 3rd overall pick
DET - 12 GP - 16 PTS - 1st overall pick
LAK - 10 GP - 13 PTS - 2nd overall pick
NJD - 10 GP - 9 PTS - 4th overall pick
NYR - 8 GP - 7 PTS - 6th overall pick
BUF - 8 GP - 5 PTS - 9th overall pick
FLA - 5 GP - 8 PTS - 5th overall pick
ANA - 4 GP - 6 PTS - 7th overall pick
VAN - 4 GP - 5 PTS - 8th overall pick
PHI - 4 GP - 0 PTS - 15th overall pick
CHI - 3 - GP - 4 PTS - 10th overall pick
EDM - 3 GP - 2 PTS - 12th overall pick
MIN - 2 GP - 0 PTS - 14th overall pick
MTL - 1 GP - 2 PTS - 11th overall pick
ARI - 1 GP - 0 PTS - 13th overall pick

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

8 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I brought this up earlier this week in the "2019 Draft" Thread... I absolutely love the idea.

You're wrong on one thing though. It's not based on each non playoff teams record after the trade deadline. It's based on when each team is officially eliminated from the playoffs...

For instance, Ottawa was the first team mathematically eliminated, so they had 13 games to accumulate points, giving them the best odds at the top pick. Montreal and Arizona were both on the bubble and only played one game after being mathematically eliminated, giving them the lowest odds at the top pick. 

Here's the full standings breakdown that I posted in the other thread...

OTT - 13 GP - 12 PTS - 3rd overall pick
DET - 12 GP - 16 PTS - 1st overall pick
LAK - 10 GP - 13 PTS - 2nd overall pick
NJD - 10 GP - 9 PTS - 4th overall pick
NYR - 8 GP - 7 PTS - 6th overall pick
BUF - 8 GP - 5 PTS - 9th overall pick
FLA - 5 GP - 8 PTS - 5th overall pick
ANA - 4 GP - 6 PTS - 7th overall pick
VAN - 4 GP - 5 PTS - 8th overall pick
PHI - 4 GP - 0 PTS - 15th overall pick
CHI - 3 - GP - 4 PTS - 10th overall pick
EDM - 3 GP - 2 PTS - 12th overall pick
MIN - 2 GP - 0 PTS - 14th overall pick
MTL - 1 GP - 2 PTS - 11th overall pick
ARI - 1 GP - 0 PTS - 13th overall pick

Ah I missed your post. This makes better sense, as it prevents the bubble teams from stealing the top picks every year. Yeah I like this system even more now.

[krsmith17 7,191]

1 minute ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Ah I missed your post. This makes better sense, as it prevents the bubble teams from stealing the top picks every year. Yeah I like this system even more now.

It needs to happen.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

3 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

It needs to happen.

It will. In a couple years. Just in time to box Detroit out of pulling a Philly, Carolina, Chicago style lottery leap into the top 3. 

17 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I brought this up earlier this week in the "2019 Draft" Thread... I absolutely love the idea.

You're wrong on one thing though. It's not based on each non playoff teams record after the trade deadline. It's based on when each team is officially eliminated from the playoffs...

For instance, Ottawa was the first team mathematically eliminated, so they had 13 games to accumulate points, giving them the best odds at the top pick. Montreal and Arizona were both on the bubble and only played one game after being mathematically eliminated, giving them the lowest odds at the top pick. 

Here's the full standings breakdown that I posted in the other thread...

OTT - 13 GP - 12 PTS - 3rd overall pick
DET - 12 GP - 16 PTS - 1st overall pick
LAK - 10 GP - 13 PTS - 2nd overall pick
NJD - 10 GP - 9 PTS - 4th overall pick
NYR - 8 GP - 7 PTS - 6th overall pick
BUF - 8 GP - 5 PTS - 9th overall pick
FLA - 5 GP - 8 PTS - 5th overall pick
ANA - 4 GP - 6 PTS - 7th overall pick
VAN - 4 GP - 5 PTS - 8th overall pick
PHI - 4 GP - 0 PTS - 15th overall pick
CHI - 3 - GP - 4 PTS - 10th overall pick
EDM - 3 GP - 2 PTS - 12th overall pick
MIN - 2 GP - 0 PTS - 14th overall pick
MTL - 1 GP - 2 PTS - 11th overall pick
ARI - 1 GP - 0 PTS - 13th overall pick

Would this still allow tanking earlier to get to that "elimination" finish line quicker? 

Also, it might screw with the trade deadline a bit too? Teams may want to hang on to some players for this post-elimination run........

I

[AtlantaHotWings 973]

21 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

It will. In a couple years. Just in time to box Detroit out of pulling a Philly, Carolina, Chicago style lottery leap into the top 3. 

Would this still allow tanking earlier to get to that "elimination" finish line quicker? 

Also, it might screw with the trade deadline a bit too? Teams may want to hang on to some players for this post-elimination run........

I

Really make GMs think on deals at TDL. 

of course it will change when we are a bubble team. The NHL  has a conspiracy against us being great again....

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

47 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

It will. In a couple years. Just in time to box Detroit out of pulling a Philly, Carolina, Chicago style lottery leap into the top 3. 

Would this still allow tanking earlier to get to that "elimination" finish line quicker? 

Also, it might screw with the trade deadline a bit too? Teams may want to hang on to some players for this post-elimination run........

I

I would think it make some teams be motivated to sell earlier in the season, like maybe after thanksgiving or christmas.

I would think it also jacks up the prices for players at the TDL, as now non-playoff GMs have motivation to hang on to those guys.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

5 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I would think it make some teams be motivated to sell earlier in the season, like maybe after thanksgiving or christmas.

I would think it also jacks up the prices for players at the TDL, as now non-playoff GMs have motivation to hang on to those guys.

Yeah. I have 50$ that says good management would find a way to exploit the the GP. 

I think the NHL should do a 3 tier lottery. 

Bottom 5 finish? You can move up or down but no lower than 5th

Middle 5 (6 - 10)? Move up or down but no higher than 6th, no lower than 10th

Top 5 (11 - 15) You get it. 

That way some dickhead teams get a carrot. Just a smaller one.  

[gcom007 1,465]

15 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

Can't say it much better than this.

There is NO reason why a team that just missed the playoffs should be drafting ahead of teams that have struggled and lost all year and were out of the playoffs since before the TDL. Not unless they've traded for that pick of course. In the same breath, you can't keep rewarding the same teams over and over.

I 100% agree with this. At the very least they need to limit the teams in the lottery for the top picks. I thought too that they ought to limit year over year eligibility. I think this is spot on analysis and I really hope that they at least change this aspect in the next go around of the CBA, and I’m fully aware that it will probably work against us at that point. If you’re going to do a lottery, you can’t have playoff bubble teams jumping to get top picks, and you can’t have the same teams getting the top picks year after year. 

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

2 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

It will. In a couple years. Just in time to box Detroit out of pulling a Philly, Carolina, Chicago style lottery leap into the top 3. 

Would this still allow tanking earlier to get to that "elimination" finish line quicker? 

Also, it might screw with the trade deadline a bit too? Teams may want to hang on to some players for this post-elimination run........

I

My concern as well. A bubble team in rebuild could just tank until they were eliminated and then start winning to get the 1st overall.

2 hours ago, AtlantaHotWings said:

Really make GMs think on deals at TDL. 

of course it will change when we are a bubble team. The NHL  has a conspiracy against us being great again....

Make Detroit Great Again