2020 Draft Thread

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

17 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

A little bit to add to this thought...

Stutzle played center his entire life, projects as a center in the future, and is only playing on the wing now because he's a 17 year old playing in an adult league as a rookie.  It's a little like Dylan Larkin playing wing his 1st NHL season. Far as I've read pretty much everyone assumes he'll switch back to center long term a la Larkin.

Cole Perfetti is the only guy who's played center, who's likely to go around the time Detroit drafts, and who doesn't project down the middle long term. 

Can't wait till the lottery has passed and we know our draft position. Get a poll thread going to see who everyone wants. I think if we're not the #1 pick the general consensus will be Stoots

[kipwinger 8,524]

Just now, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Can't wait till the lottery has passed and we know our draft position. Get a poll thread going to see who everyone wants. I think if we're not the #1 pick the general consensus will be Stoots

I vacillate a lot because Rossi is outscoring Lafreniere right now in the CHL AND projects as a center, so obviously I love that.  Stutzle is also a high offensive upside center. Byfield probably is less skilled than those guys (though it's hard to say by how much considering his age) but with his physical tools he's got the ability to be dominant in a way they can't be.  At this point I'm genuinely fine with any of them and I don't see us taking a winger or defenseman so I'm pretty happy no matter whether we draft 2, 3, or 4. 

[krsmith17 7,191]

6 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

I vacillate a lot because Rossi is outscoring Lafreniere right now in the CHL AND projects as a center, so obviously I love that.  Stutzle is also a high offensive upside center. Byfield probably is less skilled than those guys (though it's hard to say by how much considering his age) but with his physical tools he's got the ability to be dominant in a way they can't be.  At this point I'm genuinely fine with any of them and I don't see us taking a winger or defenseman so I'm pretty happy no matter whether we draft 2, 3, or 4. 

What if we draft 1? Obviously a winger (Lafreniere) there...

What if we end up dropping to 4, and the top 3 go, Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzel? I could see Yzerman drafting a winger (Raymond) there as well...

[kipwinger 8,524]

1 minute ago, krsmith17 said:

What if we draft 1? Obviously a winger (Lafreniere) there...

What if we end up dropping to 4, and the top 3 go, Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzel? I could see Yzerman drafting a winger (Raymond) there as well...

Why take Raymond there when Rossi is outscoring Lafreniere?  He's a more talented offensive player than Raymond AND he plays center. 

As far as drafting 1st I have consistently avoiding discussing it because A) Lafreniere almost certainly gets drafted there, and B) we almost certainly don't get that pick, so it's a pretty boring topic to discuss. 

[krsmith17 7,191]

8 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Why take Raymond there when Rossi is outscoring Lafreniere?  He's a more talented offensive player than Raymond AND he plays center. 

As far as drafting 1st I have consistently avoiding discussing it because A) Lafreniere almost certainly gets drafted there, and B) we almost certainly don't get that pick, so it's a pretty boring topic to discuss. 

I'm not convinced Rossi plays center at the NHL level. Maybe, but being that undersized I wouldn't bet on it. I know there are examples of elite undersized centers in the league (Point), but I'd say more convert to wing than stay center.

Also, it's hard to say for certain that Rossi is / will be a more talented offensive player than Raymond based on play from two different leagues. 

I asked the question because not too long ago, you didn't think it was certain that Lafreniere would go number one.

[TLGTrico 626]

Outside of Lafreniere, I have no idea who's ranked where.  

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

39 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

What if we draft 1? Obviously a winger (Lafreniere) there...

What if we end up dropping to 4, and the top 3 go, Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzel? I could see Yzerman drafting a winger (Raymond) there as well...

God forbid we drop to 4th and those players mentioned above are gone i can see yzerman falling back a few spots and taking askarov to go with seider and hronek and trying to solidify our back end 

Thats not what im hoping for though obviously , also have raymond ahead of rossi as well as holtz 

[Dabura 12,207]

10 hours ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

Ya raymond 8, holtz 11? Lundell 14? Im paying less attention to button everytime he talks 

This is one of the reasons I like Button. He says how he feels, doesn't worry about prevailing narratives.

[Dabura 12,207]

6 hours ago, kipwinger said:

I'm pumped about this development.  Assuming we do no worse than 4th, we're basically getting one of Byfield, Stutzle, or Rossi to be our future 2C.  Rossi just burst into TSN's Top 5 and is outscoring Lafreniere in the CHL and has been described as a highjlight reel offensive player.

I'm pumped too. I was afraid no one would step up and make things really interesting.

Rossi's 5'9, so I wouldn't bet big money on him becoming a gamebreaking 1C -- and a future gamebreaking 1C is what we should be hoping for if we're taking a centerman in the top 4. That's not to say Rossi isn't awesome, mind you.

Edited January 17, 2020 by Dabura

[nyqvististhefuture 1,002]

11 minutes ago, Dabura said:

This is one of the reasons I like Button. He says how he feels, doesn't worry about prevailing narratives.

Thats cool , just dont agree with some of his rankings 

[Dabura 12,207]

3 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

That's a massive overpayment and you know it.

I would trade Larkin + AA for Draisaitl in a heartbeat.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

54 minutes ago, Dabura said:

I would trade Larkin + AA for Draisaitl in a heartbeat.

I was talking about Draisaitl.

 

[Dabura 12,207]

4 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I was talking about Draisaitl

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

10 minutes ago, Dabura said:

I was responding to CRL. As you know, he and krsmith have been having a friendly debate about Larkin.

2018-19 Larkin and AA would be worth more to me than Draisaitl alone. Larkin and AA this year? That's another story. I guess it depends on who the real Larkin and AA are if I make that trade or not.

Is an elite Center worth a 70 point 1C and a 30 goal winger? Most would say yes, but a trade like that would basically be a reset too.

[kipwinger 8,524]

3 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

I'm not convinced Rossi plays center at the NHL level. Maybe, but being that undersized I wouldn't bet on it. I know there are examples of elite undersized centers in the league (Point), but I'd say more convert to wing than stay center.

Also, it's hard to say for certain that Rossi is / will be a more talented offensive player than Raymond based on play from two different leagues. 

I asked the question because not too long ago, you didn't think it was certain that Lafreniere would go number one.

First Bold:  Rossi is already a more talented offensive player than Lafreniere, and they're in the same league.  So I don't know why he'd suddenly be worse than Raymond, who's quite a step below Lafreniere, regardless of league.

Second Bold: That wasn't what I was suggesting at all.  I'm a pretty astute sports better, and I would 100% percent bet that Lafreniere will go 1st overall.  What I was suggesting was that it's not clear to me that he SHOULD go first, or rather, that he'll have the best NHL career.  Much the same way that I was 100 percent sure Jack Hughes would go 1st overall, but that another player (such as Kakko) would have a better NHL career and would therefore have been a better pick at 1st. 

Edited January 17, 2020 by kipwinger

[kipwinger 8,524]

2 hours ago, Dabura said:

I'm pumped too. I was afraid no one would step up and make things really interesting.

Rossi's 5'9, so I wouldn't bet big money on him becoming a gamebreaking 1C -- and a future gamebreaking 1C is what we should be hoping for if we're taking a centerman in the top 4. That's not to say Rossi isn't awesome, mind you.

Most of the scouting reports I've seen suggest that Rossi is pretty stout, and strong one his skates, and very aggressive.  He's already 180 lbs, despite being 5'9 so it's pretty fair to assume he'll be 200-210 lbs in his 20s.  Most tend to agree that he projects out as a center because of this.  He's also, as I've stated a few times, the most dynamic offensive player in the draft (and that includes Lafreniere) so I think he's as likely to have "game breaking" upside as anyone.

With all that said, I don't think we need him to be a "1C".  It's great if he is, mind you, but we've already got a 1C who can score 60+ points will matching up against the top centers in the game and logging heavy minutes.  What we really need is a top six center who can score a ton of points precisely because he WON'T have to log Larkin type minutes.  Let him be the Sakic to Larkin's Forsberg.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

10 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Most of the scouting reports I've seen suggest that Rossi is pretty stout, and strong one his skates, and very aggressive.  He's already 180 lbs, despite being 5'9 so it's pretty fair to assume he'll be 200-210 lbs in his 20s.  Most tend to agree that he projects out as a center because of this.  He's also, as I've stated a few times, the most dynamic offensive player in the draft (and that includes Lafreniere) so I think he's as likely to have "game breaking" upside as anyone.

With all that said, I don't think we need him to be a "1C".  It's great if he is, mind you, but we've already got a 1C who can score 60+ points will matching up against the top centers in the game and logging heavy minutes.  What we really need is a top six center who can score a ton of points precisely because he WON'T have to log Larkin type minutes.  Let him be the Sakic to Larkin's Forsberg.

Was going great until you made these two f***ers the crux of your analogy. 

 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

18 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Most of the scouting reports I've seen suggest that Rossi is pretty stout, and strong one his skates, and very aggressive.  He's already 180 lbs, despite being 5'9 so it's pretty fair to assume he'll be 200-210 lbs in his 20s.  Most tend to agree that he projects out as a center because of this.  He's also, as I've stated a few times, the most dynamic offensive player in the draft (and that includes Lafreniere) so I think he's as likely to have "game breaking" upside as anyone.

With all that said, I don't think we need him to be a "1C".  It's great if he is, mind you, but we've already got a 1C who can score 60+ points will matching up against the top centers in the game and logging heavy minutes.  What we really need is a top six center who can score a ton of points precisely because he WON'T have to log Larkin type minutes.  Let him be the Sakic to Larkin's Forsberg.

You musta been gone a while. We all think Larkin sucks now.

I know, I see your points, but the board even convinced level-headed me too.

[kipwinger 8,524]

9 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Was going great until you made these two f***ers the crux of your analogy. 

 

I don't have the average fan's antipathy toward those guys, or the rivalry years in general.  I remember reading Brendan Shanahan's article in the Player's Tribute where he fawned all over Joe Sakic and I sort of realized that while the rivalry was fun and all there was no reason to be delusional and act like guys who were really good actually weren't somehow.  The beauty of the rivalry to me was that as insanely good as Sakic and Forsberg were, Yzerman and Fedorov were better. 

4 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

You musta been gone a while. We all think Larkin sucks now.

I know, I see your points, but the board even convinced level-headed me too.

I actually feel about Larkin and our (hopefully) soon to be 2C the way I feel about Seider and Hronek.  One guy scores all the points, one guy kicks all the ass.  I like that setup.  If you had Larkin and Veleno/Rasmussen eating all the hard defensive minutes and Stutzle/Rossi/Byfield torching subpar defenders I'd say you're in a pretty good situation. 

Edited January 17, 2020 by kipwinger

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

Just now, kipwinger said:

I don't have the average fan's antipathy toward those guys, or the rivalry years in general.  I remember reading Brendan Shanahan's article in the Player's Tribute where he fawned all over Joe Sakic and I sort of realized that while the rivalry was fun and all there was no reason to be delusional and act like guys who were really good actually weren't somehow.  The beauty of the rivalry to me was that as insanely good as Sakic and Forsberg were, Yzerman and Fedorov were better. 

Alright. Now that you've made amends, back to your last comment.  I'm feeling better about Rossi. You single handedly did this. Also, I like that he's Austrian for some weird reason. Plus he plays like Zegras, on juice. 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

1 minute ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Alright. Now that you've made amends, back to your last comment.  I'm feeling better about Rossi. You single handedly did this. Also, I like that he's Austrian for some weird reason. Plus he plays like Zegras, on juice. 

Intriguing. He can speak German with Seider? Very intriguinggggg...

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

2 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Intriguing. He can speak German with Seider? Very intriguinggggg...

"Pass zee puck, schweizjagger the ladies, Moritz" 

[kipwinger 8,524]

32 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Alright. Now that you've made amends, back to your last comment.  I'm feeling better about Rossi. You single handedly did this. Also, I like that he's Austrian for some weird reason. Plus he plays like Zegras, on juice. 

Also apparently he's a mean little bastard.  He's been suspended already for dirty play, and nearly suspended a few more times.  It doens't pay to mess Rossi it seems.  He's not the biggest guy on earth, but you're not going to shove him around either.  And as I feel obliged to keep saying, he scores more than Lafreniere.  So yeah, he's dope.

[krsmith17 7,191]

8 hours ago, kipwinger said:

First Bold:  Rossi is already a more talented offensive player than Lafreniere, and they're in the same league.  So I don't know why he'd suddenly be worse than Raymond, who's quite a step below Lafreniere, regardless of league.

First of all, Rossi is not already a more talented offensive player than Lafreniere... He has more points so far this season. That does not mean he's more offensively talented. Lafreniere is far and away the most offensively talented player in this draft. He's also much better at just about every facet of the game than any other player in this draft.

They're also not in the same league. Yes, they're both in the CHL, but Lafreniere is in the QMJHL and Rossi is in the OHL. The OHL is a slightly higher scoring league (3.8 vs 3.5 goal per game) which would factor into Rossi's slightly higher scoring rate (2.31 vs 2.15 goals per game). You should also factor in the previous year, and how consistently dominant Lafreniere has been throughout his junior career. Last season Rossi was at 1.23, while Lafreniere was at 1.72 goals per game.

The SHL is much more difficult league than the OHL. Even with the point conversion, Rossi blows Raymond's numbers out of the water. However, would Rossi still be the dominant player he is in the OHL, if he were playing against men in the SHL? Or if / when he actually gets to the AHL / NHL? I'm not so sure.

9 hours ago, kipwinger said:

Second Bold: That wasn't what I was suggesting at all.  I'm a pretty astute sports better, and I would 100% percent bet that Lafreniere will go 1st overall.  What I was suggesting was that it's not clear to me that he SHOULD go first, or rather, that he'll have the best NHL career.  Much the same way that I was 100 percent sure Jack Hughes would go 1st overall, but that another player (such as Kakko) would have a better NHL career and would therefore have been a better pick at 1st. 

So what you're suggesting is that you probably know better than thousands of pro scouts?

Yes, Lafreniere will go first overall, because he absolutely should go first overall, because he absolutely will be the best player to come out of this draft.

9 hours ago, kipwinger said:

Most of the scouting reports I've seen suggest that Rossi is pretty stout, and strong one his skates, and very aggressive.  He's already 180 lbs, despite being 5'9 so it's pretty fair to assume he'll be 200-210 lbs in his 20s.  Most tend to agree that he projects out as a center because of this.  He's also, as I've stated a few times, the most dynamic offensive player in the draft (and that includes Lafreniere) so I think he's as likely to have "game breaking" upside as anyone.

This simply isn't true.

9 hours ago, kipwinger said:

With all that said, I don't think we need him to be a "1C".  It's great if he is, mind you, but we've already got a 1C who can score 60+ points will matching up against the top centers in the game and logging heavy minutes.  What we really need is a top six center who can score a ton of points precisely because he WON'T have to log Larkin type minutes.  Let him be the Sakic to Larkin's Forsberg.

This, I agree with.

[kipwinger 8,524]

22 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

First of all, Rossi is not already a more talented offensive player than Lafreniere... He has more points so far this season. That does not mean he's more offensively talented. Lafreniere is far and away the most offensively talented player in this draft. He's also much better at just about every facet of the game than any other player in this draft.

Seems pretty clear to me that over the last year Rossi's offensive game has caught up to, and surpassed Lafreniere's.  Lafreniere, however, is the better player all around and the more physically developed human being.

They're also not in the same league. Yes, they're both in the CHL, but Lafreniere is in the QMJHL and Rossi is in the OHL. The OHL is a slightly higher scoring league (3.8 vs 3.5 goal per game) which would factor into Rossi's slightly higher scoring rate (2.31 vs 2.15 goals per game). You should also factor in the previous year, and how consistently dominant Lafreniere has been throughout his junior career. Last season Rossi was at 1.23, while Lafreniere was at 1.72 goals per game.

That's not how math works. Mathematically the difference of .03 (3.8 vs. 3.5) would mean a difference of 3 goals if Rossi played 100 more games than Lafreniere.  But they haven't played 100 games.  They've played the same number of games (actually Rossi has played two fewer).  Which means the difference in the leagues would account for 3/100th of a goal. 

The SHL is much more difficult league than the OHL. Even with the point conversion, Rossi blows Raymond's numbers out of the water. However, would Rossi still be the dominant player he is in the OHL, if he were playing against men in the SHL? Or if / when he actually gets to the AHL / NHL? I'm not so sure.

If this is true for Rossi it would also be true of Lafreniere, who is also not playing in a men's league.

So what you're suggesting is that you probably know better than thousands of pro scouts?

No, I'm suggesting I'd do something different than them. Largely because I've seen and analyzed years worth of top five picks and seen how often they get it wrong.

Yes, Lafreniere will go first overall, because he absolutely should go first overall, because he absolutely will be the best player to come out of this draft.

Cool bro.  I'm not convinced.

This simply isn't true.

Facts are facts, Rossi is scoring more even after you account for the difference between the OHL and QMJHL.

This, I agree with.

Yippie.