krsmith17 7,191 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 6 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said: I don't think it will be 4th. 2nd or 3rd is the most likely. I'm more concerned with who leaps ahead of us. It's not though... 1st - 18.5% 2nd - 16.5% 3rd - 14.4% 4th - 50.6% Picking 4th is still the most likely spot we land, but since picking top three, or dropping to four is basically a coin flip, I choose to believe that we'll land in the top three... Fingers crossed for one, but I'd be more than okay with two as well. Three would be disappointing, and four would be a huge kick to the nuts... I'm hoping the top five ends up being... 1. Wings 2. Ducks 3. Kings 4. Sens 5. Sens (via Sharks) 2 Wheelchairsuperhero and Dabura reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 38 minutes ago, krsmith17 said: It's not though... 1st - 18.5% 2nd - 16.5% 3rd - 14.4% 4th - 50.6% Picking 4th is still the most likely spot we land, but since picking top three, or dropping to four is basically a coin flip, I choose to believe that we'll land in the top three... Fingers crossed for one, but I'd be more than okay with two as well. Three would be disappointing, and four would be a huge kick to the nuts... I'm hoping the top five ends up being... 1. Wings 2. Ducks 3. Kings 4. Sens 5. Sens (via Sharks) I wasnt referring to the actual lotto odds. Just what I think will happen. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
krsmith17 7,191 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 46 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said: I wasnt referring to the actual lotto odds. Just what I think will happen. I hear ya, and I'm right there with ya. Just saying that "most likely" is inaccurate. Like I said in a previous post, f*** odds and math, we're due for a bit of luck in this draft. May the hockey gods be on our side... 2 F.Michael and Akakabuto reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dabura 12,207 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 (edited) 16 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said: I don't think it will be 4th. 2nd or 3rd is the most likely. I'm more concerned with who leaps ahead of us. Technically, 4th is the most likely. http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds 1st - 18.5% 2nd - 16.5% 3rd - 14.4% 4th - 50.6% If there's a silver lining, it's that 18.5 + 16.5 + 14.4 = 49.4. Which mean it's basically a coin flip: heads/tails we pick in the top 3, tails/heads we pick 4th. (Hmm...that sounded more comforting in my head. ) EDIT: Oh, sorry, should've read the rest of the replies. Edited June 21, 2020 by Dabura 1 krsmith17 reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dabura 12,207 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 17 hours ago, LeftWinger said: honestly here is the way I look at it, even though we will get a heck-uva quality player at 4, I think if we do fall to 4, it'll just seem like a huge slap in the face because we fell as far as we could. Even if we just fell to 3, it wouldn't feel as horrible. There is only 3 other teams though I wouldn't mind us falling to in reality, Ottawa, LA, Anaheim. That's it. Nobody else deserves to jump us to #1, especially perennial tankers like NJ and Buffalo. Screw the rest of the bottom 15, they've all had their picks in the #1-#3 range over the past several years...and it's gonna stink if Montreal or pulls that upset and Pittsburgh gets the #1...I would actually puke. I'd rather a team get the and keep the #1 and we get #4 than to see Pitt, Edmonton, Chicago or Toronto get the #1. Personally, I don't want ant non-Wings Atlantic team getting Lafreniere or Byfield, especially if it means we pick 3rd or 4th. 1 krsmith17 reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
krsmith17 7,191 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 Just now, Dabura said: Personally, I don't want ant non-Wings Atlantic team getting Lafreniere or Byfield, especially if it means we pick 3rd or 4th. Yup, Wings, Kings and Ducks in the top three pushing the Sens two picks to four and five is ideal. That's just for teams outside the "play-in" / playoffs, because I don't want to wait for the "second lottery" to see where we land in the top three... What a stupid f***ing gimmicky format... 1 Dabura reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dabura 12,207 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 22 hours ago, 13dangledangle said: yeah the waiting just adds to the immense angst I have for this lotto. My brain just echos not 4th, please not 4th. 1st or 2nd please. 3rd is fine. PLEASE NOT 4TH. Seriously. I need closure, lol. That's another reason why 1st or 2nd would be great -- we'd know who we're getting (assuming Yzerman would take Byfield @ 2nd, which I think is a safe assumption). If it's 3rd or 4th, it's going to be months of wondering who our guy is going to be. We don't even know when the draft is going to be held. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dabura 12,207 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, krsmith17 said: Yup, Wings, Kings and Ducks in the top three pushing the Sens two picks to four and five is ideal. That's just for teams outside the "play-in" / playoffs, because I don't want to wait for the "second lottery" to see where we land in the top three... What a stupid f***ing gimmicky format... A second lottery wouldn't impact our pick tho, right? http://www.tankathon.com/nhl Quote The NHL decided to do a weird lottery. If any of the teams 8-15 (losers of playoff qualifiers) jump into the top 3, then another lottery will be done to see which of teams 8-15 get that top 3 spot (with even odds for the 8 teams). So really, the top 1 and top 3 odds are the same for teams 8-15. If that's right, and if I'm reading it right, a second lotto wouldn't have any effect on our position. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
krsmith17 7,191 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, Dabura said: A second lottery wouldn't impact our pick tho, right? http://www.tankathon.com/nhl If that's right, and if I'm reading it right, a second lotto wouldn't have any effect on our position. I have no idea. My understanding, which could be completely wrong, is that if one top three spot goes to one of the play-in teams, we'll know which of the two bottom seven teams are in the top three, but we won't know the order of the top three, until after the play-in round is complete. Once that round is complete, there will be another draft lottery to determine which of the eight teams eliminated gets the remaining top three spot, and then the order of the top three will be drawn... Again, I could be completely off base, since I haven't been paying close attention, but that was my understanding... Either way, the whole thing is way too convoluted, and could have / should have been made much easier... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The 91 of Ryans 3,014 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 I think my main problem with the draft is that some form of crappy result is almost unavoidable. So pick one. 1. Sens pick twice in top 4 2. Wings pick 4th 3. Habs or Hawks or some undeserving bubble team slide into the top 3 after losing the play-in. 4. Jersey or Buffalo pick 1st 5. A good team like Winnipeg lose the play in and win the lotto. Etc. 1 Dabura reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
krsmith17 7,191 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said: I think my main problem with the draft is that some form of crappy result is almost unavoidable. So pick one. 1. Sens pick twice in top 4 2. Wings pick 4th 3. Habs or Hawks or some undeserving bubble team slide into the top 3 after losing the play-in. 4. Jersey or Buffalo pick 1st 5. A good team like Winnipeg lose the play in and win the lotto. Etc. The only two I'd be truly mad about, are 2 and 3. I'd be more than okay with Winnipeg getting a top three pick. I've always liked the Western Canadian teams, for the most part. Edmonton and Winnipeg in particular. Of course, the only thing that should matter to any of us, is getting that top pick. The only team I'll be pissed about getting a top three pick, regardless where we land, is Toronto... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The 91 of Ryans 3,014 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, krsmith17 said: The only two I'd be truly mad about, are 2 and 3. I'd be more than okay with Winnipeg getting a top three pick. I've always liked the Western Canadian teams, for the most part. Edmonton and Winnipeg in particular. Of course, the only thing that should matter to any of us, is getting that top pick. The only team I'll be pissed about getting a top three pick, regardless where we land, is Toronto... Winnipeg can be switched out for Pittsburgh if you wish As long as we pick top three and nothing totally unjust and rancid happens, I'll be OK. If not? There's always next year right? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 3 hours ago, Dabura said: Technically, 4th is the most likely. http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds 1st - 18.5% 2nd - 16.5% 3rd - 14.4% 4th - 50.6% If there's a silver lining, it's that 18.5 + 16.5 + 14.4 = 49.4. Which mean it's basically a coin flip: heads/tails we pick in the top 3, tails/heads we pick 4th. (Hmm...that sounded more comforting in my head. ) EDIT: Oh, sorry, should've read the rest of the replies. Math nerd Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
krsmith17 7,191 Report post Posted June 21, 2020 43 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said: Winnipeg can be switched out for Pittsburgh if you wish As long as we pick top three and nothing totally unjust and rancid happens, I'll be OK. If not? There's always next year right? We ARE getting number one this year though... This is our year... We're due... Yeah, I'd be a little annoyed with Pittsburgh or Chicago as well, but no team would piss me off as much as Toronto... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dabura 12,207 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 20 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said: Math nerd Absolutely not. I suck at math and I hate it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dabura 12,207 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 23 hours ago, krsmith17 said: I have no idea. My understanding, which could be completely wrong, is that if one top three spot goes to one of the play-in teams, we'll know which of the two bottom seven teams are in the top three, but we won't know the order of the top three, until after the play-in round is complete. Once that round is complete, there will be another draft lottery to determine which of the eight teams eliminated gets the remaining top three spot, and then the order of the top three will be drawn... Again, I could be completely off base, since I haven't been paying close attention, but that was my understanding... Either way, the whole thing is way too convoluted, and could have / should have been made much easier... So frickin' convoluted. I think I'm right, though. I haven't heard anything about this week's lotto possibly not settling where we'll be picking. 22 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said: I think my main problem with the draft is that some form of crappy result is almost unavoidable. So pick one. 1. Sens pick twice in top 4 2. Wings pick 4th 3. Habs or Hawks or some undeserving bubble team slide into the top 3 after losing the play-in. 4. Jersey or Buffalo pick 1st 5. A good team like Winnipeg lose the play in and win the lotto. Etc. S***'s broken. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dabura 12,207 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 21 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said: If not? There's always next year right? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
krsmith17 7,191 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Dabura said: So frickin' convoluted. I think I'm right, though. I haven't heard anything about this week's lotto possibly not settling where we'll be picking. So in that case, what would happen if one of the top three picks goes to one of the play-in teams? Would we know before the play-in games start, which one of the top three picks will eventually go to the winner of the second draft lottery? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Akakabuto 1,749 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Dabura said: So frickin' convoluted. I think I'm right, though. I haven't heard anything about this week's lotto possibly not settling where we'll be picking. S***'s broken. Its all just too much with this league sometimes. I dont know if this is suppose to be ”parity” or whatever but they just try too hard. 1 Dabura reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
krsmith17 7,191 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 Bob's final rankings... https://www.tsn.ca/bob-mckenzie-s-final-ranking-lafreniere-the-surest-thing-in-most-uncertain-draft-year-1.1488272?tsn-amp&__twitter_impression=true Stutzel ahead of Byfield... 1 Dabura reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The 91 of Ryans 3,014 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 All you need to know bout this years lottery is that there is a 24.5% chance that one of Pittsburgh Montreal Carolina NYR NYI Florida Toronto Columbus Edmonton Chicago Nashville Arizona Vancouver Calgary Winnipeg will get 1st overall. You also need to know that this will happen because the NHL is a novelty league that loves novelty. My question is, on Friday if placeholder team 8 - 15 wins the lotto, but then there's no season end/no play in round, what happens? 1 Dabura reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
krsmith17 7,191 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said: My question is, on Friday if placeholder team 8 - 15 wins the lotto, but then there's no season end/no play in round, what happens? Good question, and with multiple players now having Covid, and the States still being effed, I think there's a good chance we don't see playoffs this season... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The 91 of Ryans 3,014 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, krsmith17 said: Good question, and with multiple players now having Covid, and the States still being effed, I think there's a good chance we don't see playoffs this season... In which case they'd have two choices. - Take the existing standings as of March 12 or whatever and have a lotto where each team, 8 to 15 have the same chance of claiming whichever placeholder spots end up in the top 3. - Have a Crosby draft FML I will say this, as it's seems that Lafreniere is alone in an elite bubble: in a draft as under-scouted as this one is going to be, there will never be a more important time to get 1st overall and walk away with the only lock or sure-thing player. Every other prospect has at least a few question marks and no one has seen any of them play since March. 1 krsmith17 reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
marcaractac 3,963 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 42 minutes ago, krsmith17 said: Good question, and with multiple players now having Covid, and the States still being effed, I think there's a good chance we don't see playoffs this season... Shame Halifax and St. John's weren't considered as hub cities. We'd be able to put fans in the stands by the time the games start. 1 krsmith17 reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The 91 of Ryans 3,014 Report post Posted June 22, 2020 Just now, marcaractac said: Shame Halifax and St. John's weren't considered as hub cities. We'd be able to put fans in the stands by the time the games start. As the only non-territory province in Canada without a Covid death, PEI says "hi". 2 krsmith17 and marcaractac reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
