Mantha might be done for the year - what now

[Wheelchairsuperhero 1,453]

3 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

If we're talking about most talented player on the team (I take that to mean offensively) it goes:

1. Mantha

2. Bertuzzi

3. Fabbri Zadina

4. Larkin

I've no idea why Fabbri is on PP1, he looks uncomfortable right now with the man advantage. 

I thought these two players were basically redundant a couple weeks ago, I no longer think this.

[krsmith17 7,191]

16 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

MFW everyone is squabbling over is Mantha or Larkin the best

Hronek is objectively the best player on this team.

He plays top20 minutes league wide for Dmen. He's top30 league wide for points by Dmen. And he actually plays a well-rounded mistake free Defensive game. This kid is a ******* thoroughbred.

Meanwhile Mantha has all sorts of issues and Larkin is a 2C. Pathetic.

Like I said earlier, I'd hear the argument for Hronek. I think any of those three could be labeled the Wings best player.

Mantha was a beast to end last season and start this season. His numbers were borderline elite (top 10 winger). He seems to really be coming on as a legit power-forward. If he can stay healthy (he needs to stop fighting), this can be a real conversation.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

Just now, krsmith17 said:

Like I said earlier, I'd hear the argument for Hronek. I think any of those three could be labeled the Wings best player.

Mantha was a beast to end last season and start this season. His numbers were borderline elite (top 10 winger). He seems to really be coming on as a legit power-forward. If he can stay healthy (he needs to stop fighting), this can be a real conversation.

because it certainly isn't one now 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

5 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

I've no idea why Fabbri is on PP1, he looks uncomfortable right now with the man advantage. 

I thought these two players were basically redundant a couple weeks ago, I no longer think this.

Fabbri is still better than Zadina and I don't care who knows. MAYBE one day he'll be better.

7 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Hey man, you asked for a list. I also find it funny that you laugh at WiiM when I see some obviousl similarities between you guys. 

There is no debate. 

The new debate is Larkin vs Hronek. 

Bertuzzi and Larkin literally have matching points. Tuzzi should be in there too.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

3 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Best players in this order:

1. Larkin

2. Hronek

3. Bertuzzi

4. Mantha

 

 

2 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Bertuzzi and Larkin literally have matching points. Tuzzi should be in there too.

Like I said......

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

1 minute ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

 

Like I said......

Truly the list should like this:

1. Hronek <----- no argument clear #1

2. Larkin v. Tuzzi v. Mantha <------ you can make a case for any of these guys at #2

[Wheelchairsuperhero 1,453]

6 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Fabbri is still better than Zadina and I don't care who knows. MAYBE one day he'll be better.

Based on what? Zadina has been noticeably better offensively, is low key this team's best passer, and even without the eyeballs his stat line is better too.

12 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Truly the list should like this:

1. Hronek <----- no argument clear #1

2. Larkin v. Tuzzi v. Mantha <------ you can make a case for any of these guys at #2

this list for sure

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

11 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Truly the list should like this:

1. Hronek <----- no argument clear #1

2. Larkin v. Tuzzi v. Mantha <------ you can make a case for any of these guys at #2

Nope.

I don't think any GM trades a Larkin straight up for a Hronek at this point.

If Mantha can stay healthy and Hronek/Bertuzzi do it all again next year. Then maybe. Except then you're probably looking at at throwing Zadina's name in there too. Even then it will probably be more like 

1. Larkin/Hronek

2. Bertuzzi/Mantha

3. Zadina

4. -8. Buncha guys

9. Fabbri

 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

12 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

Based on what? Zadina has been noticeably better offensively, is low key this team's best passer, and even without the eyeballs his stat line is better too.

this list for sure

Fabbri's scoring per 60 minutes is still better than Zadina's and he plays more and harder minutes.

7 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Nope.

I don't think any GM trades a Larkin straight up for a Hronek at this point.

If Mantha can stay healthy and Hronek/Bertuzzi do it all again next year. Then maybe. Except then you're probably looking at at throwing Zadina's name in there too. Even then it will probably be more like 

1. Larkin/Hronek

2. Bertuzzi/Mantha

3. Zadina

4. -8. Buncha guys

9. Fabbri

There's a debate about whether Larkin is a 1C or a 2C. There is no debate that Hronek isn't a 1D.

You put Fabbri at 9 just to upset me and I resent that

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

26 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Fabbri's scoring per 60 minutes is still better than Zadina's and he plays more and harder minutes.

There's a debate about whether Larkin is a 1C or a 2C. There is no debate that Hronek isn't a 1D.

You put Fabbri at 9 just to upset me and I resent that

I'm not convinced Hronek is a 1D.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

1 minute ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I'm not convinced Hronek is a 1D.

He's the 31st Dman in the league for points, and the 19th Dman in the league for minutes played per game.

So basically he's scoring like a top30 Dman despite us being the team with the least amount of scoring in the league.

And he's eating huge minutes all while looking great out there.

#1 baby

[krsmith17 7,191]

49 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

There's a debate about whether Larkin is a 1C or a 2C. There is no debate that Hronek isn't a 1D.

Larkin is a number one center. Hronek is a top pair defenseman. I don't think he's a legit number one.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

6 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Larkin is a number one center. Hronek is a top pair defenseman. I don't think he's a legit number one.

Larkin is 35th in the league in scoring among centers
Hronek is 31st in the league in scoring among Dmen
There are 31 teams in the league

 

[mackel 679]

7 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Larkin is a number one center. Hronek is a top pair defenseman. I don't think he's a legit number one.

On this team (as in by default) in reality no he's not.  

Hronek is a top pair D.

The jury is still out.

[krsmith17 7,191]

17 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Larkin is 35th in the league in scoring among centers
Hronek is 31st in the league in scoring among Dmen
There are 31 teams in the league

Mantha is 16th in the league in scoring (points per game) among right-wingers...

It's a good thing it's not just points that determine a top line center, top line winger, top pair defenseman...

18 minutes ago, mackel said:

On this team (as in by default) in reality no he's not.  

Hronek is a top pair D.

The jury is still out.

On this team he is. In reality he is.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

13 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Mantha is 16th in the league in scoring (points per game) among right-wingers...

Didn't say he wasn't

13 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

It's a good thing it's not just points that determine a top line center, top line winger, top pair defenseman...

It's a good thing Hronek does all those things on top of scoring then. Hitting, blocking shots, defending, agitating, you can basically take your pick of articles where Blashill and his teammates (including Larkin) praise him up and down about how difficult it is to play against him. Blash always talks about his immense mental toughness and how he basically threw the kid into the fire and he came out unscathed.

Meanwhile Larkin's scoring per 60 is only 0.9 higher than Hroneks and he's a forward and our best center. So I appreciate you trying to flip the convo back to Mantha, you could make a much better case for him statistically lol

#1 D. #1 Red Wing.

Edited January 23, 2020 by ChristopherReevesLegs

[mackel 679]

23 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Mantha is 16th in the league in scoring (points per game) among right-wingers...

It's a good thing it's not just points that determine a top line center, top line winger, top pair defenseman...

On this team he is. In reality he is.

Nope... take the homer glasses off... he's a quality 2C behind a true 1C or a platoon guy with another 2C to eat minutes.

[krsmith17 7,191]

24 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Didn't say he wasn't

Didn't say you said he wasn't...

25 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

It's a good thing Hronek does all those things on top of scoring then. Hitting, blocking shots, defending, agitating, you can basically take your pick of articles where Blashill and his teammates (including Larkin) praise him up and down about how difficult it is to play against him. Blash always talks about his immense mental toughness and how he basically threw the kid into the fire and he came out unscathed.

Meanwhile Larkin's scoring per 60 is only 0.9 higher than Hroneks and he's a forward and our best center. So I appreciate you trying to flip the convo back to Mantha, you could make a much better case for him statistically lol

#1 D. #1 Red Wing.

I'm not really disagreeing with anything you're saying, except that Larkin isn't a 1C. In my opinion he is. You can definitely make an argument that Hronek has been the Red Wings best player this season. And prior to Mantha's injury, you could definitely make an argument that he was the Red Wings best player, up until that point of the season.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Larkin is 35th in the league in scoring among centers
Hronek is 31st in the league in scoring among Dmen
There are 31 teams in the league

 

43 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Mantha is 16th in the league in scoring (points per game) among right-wingers...

 

33 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Didn't say he wasn't

 

2 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Didn't say you said he wasn't...

Look at this exchange. This could go in a textbook for Red Herring-ing an argument.

6 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I'm not really disagreeing with anything you're saying, except that Larkin isn't a 1C. In my opinion he is. You can definitely make an argument that Hronek has been the Red Wings best player this season. And prior to Mantha's injury, you could definitely make an argument that he was the Red Wings best player, up until that point of the season.

I did make an argument for Hronek being the best player...
And I agree you could make one for Mantha.

But you can't for Larkin.

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

Larkin is having a sucky season. Still think he's a better player overall than Mantha or Hronek. Another season like this one might change my mind tho.

[krsmith17 7,191]

13 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I did make an argument for Hronek being the best player...
And I agree you could make one for Mantha.

But you can't for Larkin.

Meh. I'm not rehashing all that again... Agree to disagree...

[13dangledangle 958]

3 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Fabbri is still better than Zadina 

 

This is definitely not a thing.  Zadina is better then Fabbri now and hes 4 years younger...That being said Id love to keep them both somehow but I cant see why Fabbri would want to stick around this s*** storm 

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

12 minutes ago, 13dangledangle said:

This is definitely not a thing.  Zadina is better then Fabbri now and hes 4 years younger...That being said Id love to keep them both somehow but I cant see why Fabbri would want to stick around this s*** storm 

Fabbri's scoring per 60 minutes is still better than Zadina's. If you sent both on to the ice for a shift, the statistics say Fabbri will score more times than Zadina does.

And Fabbri plays more and harder minutes than Zadina.

This isn't even hard. Fabbri is objectively better than Zadina.

[Wheelchairsuperhero 1,453]

1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Fabbri's scoring per 60 minutes is still better than Zadina's. If you sent both on to the ice for a shift, the statistics say Fabbri will score more times than Zadina does.

And Fabbri plays more and harder minutes than Zadina.

This isn't even hard. Fabbri is objectively better than Zadina.

2.33 vs 2.35, this is an insanely negligible difference and makes for a weak argument. And like I said, I think Zadina being obviously better is a recent development due to adjusting to the nhl. I'm willing to bet if you look at just the last couple of weeks, Zadina's scoring per 60 will be better. Not to mention, he's been on the top line the last handful of games (where he's looked good) so I'm not sure where this "harder minutes" business is coming in. 

I'm pretty ignorant as far as advanced stats go, so feel free to school me here. But a lot of the things I see seem to be mostly a wash, so I'd say at this point there's a case to be made they're basically equal, but I'd say given the last few games Zadina's just better at this point in time. 

edit:

Turns out you can filter for the last 15 games played (thanks naturalstattrick). per 60 over the last 15 games Zadina is 2.1 vs Fabbri's 1.83. In fact, most of his numbers seem to be better if I'm reading that right. To further this, since Zadina has been on the team his scoring per 60 has been better.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Wheelchairsuperhero

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

17 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

2.33 vs 2.35, this is an insanely negligible difference and makes for a weak argument. And like I said, I think Zadina being obviously better is a recent development due to adjusting to the nhl. I'm willing to bet if you look at just the last couple of weeks, Zadina's scoring per 60 will be better. Not to mention, he's been on the top line the last handful of games (where he's looked good) so I'm not sure where this "harder minutes" business is coming in. 

I'm pretty ignorant as far as advanced stats go, so feel free to school me here. But a lot of the things I see seem to be mostly a wash, so I'd say at this point there's a case to be made they're basically equal, but I'd say given the last few games Zadina's just better at this point in time.

Pretty sure you're using total ice-time numbers. I'm using numbers adjusted for 5v5 play. You can disagree, but I think 5v5 play is a far better measure of a player.

Adjusted for 5v5 Fabbri is at 1.86 versus Zadina's 1.56. A much bigger margin considering that represents about a 24 pt difference in even strength per 60 spread over 82 games. Check my math there.

29 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

Turns out you can filter for the last 15 games played (thanks naturalstattrick). per 60 over the last 15 games Zadina is 2.1 vs Fabbri's 1.83. In fact, most of his numbers seem to be better if I'm reading that right. To further this, since Zadina has been on the team his scoring per 60 has been better.

They both have 8 pts in their last 15. Considering Fabbri gets about 3 shifts more a game than Zadina, yes his scoring per 60 should be lower over the last 15.

I'd like to see how those numbers have changed since Zadina joined the top line, but I can't isolate that. Maybe you can?