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nyqvististhefuture

Mantha might be done for the year - what now

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17 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Pretty sure you're using total ice-time numbers. I'm using numbers adjusted for 5v5 play. You can disagree, but I think 5v5 play is a far better measure of a player.

Adjusted for 5v5 Fabbri is at 1.86 versus Zadina's 1.56. A much bigger margin considering that represents about a 24 pt difference in even strength per 60 spread over 82 games. Check my math there.

They both have 8 pts in their last 15. Considering Fabbri gets about 3 shifts more a game than Zadina, yes his scoring per 60 should be lower over the last 15.

I'd like to see how those numbers have changed since Zadina joined the top line, but I can't isolate that. Maybe you can?

I think numbers for 5v5 are generally fair, but I'm not using them here because we were specifically talking about offensive talent and they're both on the PP. This should be an advantage for Fabbri anyway considering he's on PP1 and Zadina's not. But, just for fun I looked at the 5v5 numbers for the last 26 games (how many Zadina has played) and Zadina's scoring per 60 is still better. 

I couldn't remember specifically when Zadina joined the top line so I looked for the last 4 games. All strengths Zadina's points per 60 is 3.48 vs Fabbri's .91. 5v5 It's Zadina with 2.13 vs 1.33. To be fair to both sides that's a small sample size, if you know how many games he's actually been on the first line feel free to correct me. 

I also think it's fair to point out a lot of Zadina's other numbers are better too. Shot blocking, takeaways, and the one I like the most is goals per 60. The takeaways is also by a considerable margin, he's got a sneaky good stick.

Edited by Wheelchairsuperhero

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38 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

I think numbers for 5v5 are generally fair, but I'm not using them here because we were specifically talking about offensive talent and they're both on the PP. This should be an advantage for Fabbri anyway considering he's on PP1 and Zadina's not. But, just for fun I looked at the 5v5 numbers for the last 26 games (how many Zadina has played) and Zadina's scoring per 60 is still better.

But it's not an advantage for Fabbri. Zadina's points per 60 on the PP is MUCH better than Fabbris. 6.35 compared to 4.35. In fact Zadina's is the best on the team. If anything we're pointing out that Zadina is a PP specialist and Fabbri is the better player the majority of the game; even strength. And I would suspect that's why he receives more ice-time than Zadina.

Also both Zadina and Fabbri are on the 1st unit

38 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

I couldn't remember specifically when Zadina joined the top line so I looked for the last 4 games. All strengths Zadina's points per 60 is 3.48 vs Fabbri's .91. 5v5 It's Zadina with 2.13 vs 1.33. To be fair to both sides that's a small sample size, if you know how many games he's actually been on the first line feel free to correct me. 

I also think it's fair to point out a lot of Zadina's other numbers are better too. Shot blocking, takeaways, and the one I like the most is goals per 60. The takeaways is also by a considerable margin, he's got a sneaky good stick.

I mean I knew Zadina's was going to be good because he's been scoring lately so I'm really not surprised. I was just interested to know. We'll see how it goes. Eventually I'm going to look at both players total seasons at the end. That's why I'm using per 60.

Fabbri also hits a lot per game for a smallish player, whereas Zadina shys away. Worst hits per60 of all our forwards. Fabbri's blocks per game aren't impressive, but then again neither are Zadina's. For takeaways I've always up and down praised Zadina's takeaway abilities, I'm pretty sure I was the first one to fawn over them, at least around here. I'll take that to mean I accurately assessed him ;)

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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5 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

But it's not an advantage for Fabbri. Zadina's points per 60 on the PP is MUCH better than Fabbris. 6.35 compared to 4.35. In fact Zadina's is the best on the team. If anything we're pointing out that Zadina is a PP specialist and Fabbri is the better player the majority of the game; even strength. And I would suspect that's why he receives more ice-time than Zadina.

I mean I knew Zadina's was going to be good because he's been scoring lately so I'm really not surprised. We'll see how it goes. Eventually I'm going to look at both players total seasons at the end.

Fabbri also hits a lot per game for a smallish player, whereas Zadina shys away. Worst hits per60 of all our forwards. Fabbri's blocks per game aren't impressive, but then again neither are Zadina's. For takeaways I've always up and down praised Zadina's takeaway abilities, I'm pretty sure I was the first one to fawn over them, at least around here. I'll take that to mean I accurately assessed him ;)

Being on PP1 should definitely be an advantage over PP2. It just illustrates my point that Zadina is the one who should be on PP1 and Fabbri looks lost out there. And like I said, I was talking about offensive talent. I consider being good on the PP an important part of being a good offensive player. At the end of the day though, Zadina has been the better point per 60 5v5 player since joining the team anyways, so he's better in both respects. 

I'm with you though, it's a relatively small sample size and I could be arguing for Fabbri instead in a few weeks, we still don't know if Zadina has found his consistency really. I just think if we're talking right now, he's better. I don't dislike Fabbri, in fact I really hope Zadina learns how to play a bit more physical from him. That's something I've openly critiqued him on (though he hits more than I thought). 

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7 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

Being on PP1 should definitely be an advantage over PP2. It just illustrates my point that Zadina is the one who should be on PP1 and Fabbri looks lost out there. And like I said, I was talking about offensive talent. I consider being good on the PP an important part of being a good offensive player. At the end of the day though, Zadina has been the better point per 60 5v5 player since joining the team anyways, so he's better in both respects.

Zadina and Fabbri are both on PP1

Both players joined the team at different times. Fabbris points per 60 is still better than Zadina's over both their seasons. You're essentially cherry picking when Zadina got hot, and ignoring when Fabbri got hot. That's not fair.

Edited by ChristopherReevesLegs

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20 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Zadina and Fabbri are both on PP1

Both players joined the team at different times. Fabbris points per 60 is still better than Zadina's over both their seasons. You're essentially cherry picking when Zadina got hot, and ignoring when Fabbri got hot. That's not fair.

Zadina has been on PP2 for multiple games now.

I'm not cherry picking when he got hot, I'm cherry picking when he joined the NHL. Should I include his AHL stats? Because personally, I think that'd be stupid. I've said numerous times that Zadina has been the better player "since joining the team."

Edited by Wheelchairsuperhero

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1 minute ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

Zadina has been on PP2 for multiple games now.

I'm not cherry picking when he got hot, I'm cherry picking when he joined the NHL. Should I include his AHL stats? Because personally, I think that'd be stupid. 

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/detroit-red-wings/line-combinations/

PP1:

Bertuzzi - Larkin - Fabbri
Hronek - Zadina

No you shouldn't use his AHL stats, you should use Zadina's whole season AND Fabbris. Per/60 is an average stat so it doesn't matter how many more games Fabbri played. He's a better scorer at even strength so far this season objectively.

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1 minute ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/detroit-red-wings/line-combinations/

PP1:

Bertuzzi - Larkin - Fabbri
Hronek - Zadina

No you shouldn't use his AHL stats, you should use Zadina's whole season AND Fabbris. Per/60 is an average stat so it doesn't matter how many more games Fabbri played. He's a better scorer at even strength so far this season objectively.

Have you watched the games? I have been, closely, he hasn't been. I'm not going to argue this point because some website says otherwise. 

It does matter when you take into consideration the context that Zadina was essentially brand new to the NHL outside of his 9 game stint last season. I of course expect Fabbri, someone with considerably more experience, to have been better while Zadina acclimated. Hence the thing I'll keep parroting and you'll keep ignoring, "Zadina has been the better player since joining the team." 

You can keep trying to turn my argument into something it's not, but at the end of the day I'm objectively right. Outside of the stats, he's been moved to line 1 and has averaged more ice time than Fabbri lately, so the argument that Fabbri gets played more for being better are out the window there too. 

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1 minute ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

Have you watched the games? I have been, closely, he hasn't been. I'm not going to argue this point because some website says otherwise.

I mean now your argument is turning anecdotal.

7 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

It does matter when you take into consideration the context that Zadina was essentially brand new to the NHL outside of his 9 game stint last season. I of course expect Fabbri, someone with considerably more experience, to have been better while Zadina acclimated. Hence the thing I'll keep parroting and you'll keep ignoring, "Zadina has been the better player since joining the team."

Again anecdotal.

And Fabbri has been the better player over the course of their combined whole seasons. Again it's an average stat we we're using. When they joined the team and how many games they played literally does not matter. Fabbri scores more at even strength than Zadina does.

9 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

You can keep trying to turn my argument into something it's not, but at the end of the day I'm objectively right. Outside of the stats, he's been moved to line 1 and has averaged more ice time than Fabbri lately, so the argument that Fabbri gets played more for being better are out the window there too. 

Zadina has averaged more minutes than Fabbri only the last 3 games. If you want me to take 3 games and judge a player solely on that you're gonna be hard pressed to find cooperation from me.

Otherwise I think our discussion has been pretty fair so far, not sure where you think I'm manipulating your argument, but feel free to point it out. 

5 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

He's good at this...

I'm good at a lot of things sugar **** ;)

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17 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

I mean now your argument is turning anecdotal.

Again anecdotal.

And Fabbri has been the better player over the course of their combined whole seasons. Again it's an average stat we we're using. When they joined the team and how many games they played literally does not matter. Fabbri scores more at even strength than Zadina does.

Zadina has averaged more minutes than Fabbri only the last 3 games. If you want me to take 3 games and judge a player solely on that you're gonna be hard pressed to find cooperation from me.

Otherwise I think our discussion has been pretty fair so far, not sure where you think I'm manipulating your argument, but feel free to point it out. 

I literally have the games recorded, I will most definitely trust my own eyeballs over some random source you link. I ask again, have you been watching?

And again, it's not anecdotal, you're simply valuing stats differently than I am. For example, It's ridiculous to not include PP time when evaluating offensive talent. 

This has gotten a bit convoluted so I'm going to simplify back to my original point, Zadina is the better offensive player right now. He just is, using the not so small sample size of the entire time he's been on the Wings roster. I never said he's been better than Fabbri the entire season. I happen to like Fabbri, and think he's just fighting it right now. I also think he's being used wrong on the PP and would excel in the bumper spot. I don't like him on the walls and I REALLY don't like him quarterbacking from the top.

My point on Zadina's minutes were simply that Blashill is no longer playing Fabbri more than him, so that point you were making earlier was moot. 

3 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

And Fabbri is on pace for a 55 pt season. Are you proving my point?

Doesn't swing the pendulum largely one way or the other, but Zadina's on pace for more goals. I do like goals better.

 

edit: Also, to be clear, the conversation has been mostly fair and totally cordial, kudos. 

Edited by Wheelchairsuperhero

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Just now, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

I literally have the games recorded, I will most definitely trust my own eyeballs over some random source you link. I ask again, have you been watching?

Yup, and if you want my anecdotal opinion on Zadina I can write you a pretty good book about it. I just don't like to do that anymore because I've done it about 10 er 12 times now and no one ever really disagrees and we move on despite it being a lot of work for me. I recommend searching Zadina and my name. I've written some pretty lengthy reviews of his play going back to Nov 2018 and as early as about 2 weeks ago.

6 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

And again, it's not anecdotal, you're simply valuing stats differently than I am. For example, It's ridiculous to not include PP time when evaluating offensive talent.

It's 100% anecdotal to tell someone that you watched the games and based on ur scouting abilities their opinion is wrong.

I made it pretty clear from the beginning I value 5v5 play more than PP work. The PP accounts for only 11% of ice time for the Red Wings this season and I favor players who don't need a man off the ice to score. Zadina scores more during that time than Fabbri and I completely acknowledged that. Good for him. We need PP specialists too.

13 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

This has gotten a bit convoluted so I'm going to simplify back to my original point, Zadina is the better offensive player right now. He just is

Well u got me there

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17 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Yup, and if you want my anecdotal opinion on Zadina I can write you a pretty good book about it. I just don't like to do that anymore because I've done it about 10 er 12 times now and no one ever really disagrees and we move on despite it being a lot of work for me. I recommend searching Zadina and my name. I've written some pretty lengthy reviews of his play going back to Nov 2018 and as early as about 2 weeks ago.

It's 100% anecdotal to tell someone that you watched the games and based on ur scouting abilities their opinion is wrong.

I made it pretty clear from the beginning I value 5v5 play more than PP work. The PP accounts for only 11% of ice time for the Red Wings this season and I favor players who don't need a man off the ice to score. Zadina scores more during that time than Fabbri and I completely acknowledged that. Good for him. We need PP specialists too.

Well u got me there

No, I've read your posts about Zadina. I was asking if you watched because if you had you would know he's not on PP1 anymore. I'm not sure if you misunderstood or just dodged me there.

I'm not basing my opinion on my eyeball test, I've actually never said anything like that (though if I was I'd say he's noticeably more dangerous too), I'm telling you it's not anecdotal because I'm staring at a side by side of all their stats. 5v5 play is important, and I would probably use it exclusively if we were talking simply "who's the best player", but we're talking about offensive talent. If you don't think the PP is important for that I'm not sure what else to say. I've never really understood the negative connotation associated with being a "pp specialist" either. Special teams are a hugely important part of the game lol. But I think labelling someone a pp specialist simply because he's good on the PP is silly anyways, Zadina has more points 5v5.

I did get you there btw, if you look at the last few weeks all his stats are better. He's better at this moment. I'm not sure why you're even arguing this part tbh.

The bolded is good news, Zadina has scored at a higher rate even strength than Fabbri since he's been on the team.

Edited by Wheelchairsuperhero

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Just now, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

No, I've read your posts about Zadina. I was asking if you watched because if you had you would know he's not on PP1 anymore. I'm not sure if you misunderstood or just dodged me there.

He was on PP1 literally the last game, it kinda comes with being promoted to 1st line. Zadina has some of the most PP time on the team. He's the #6 PP man in terms of ice time since Cholowski left the team.

5 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

I'm not basing my opinion on my eyeball test, I've actually never said anything like that (though if I was I'd say he's noticeably more dangerous too), I'm telling you it's not anecdotal because I'm staring at a side by side of all their stats. 5v5 play is important, and I would probably use it exclusively if we were talking simply "who's the best player", but we're talking about offensive talent. If you don't think the PP is important for that I'm not sure what else to say. I've never really understood the negative connotation associated with being a "pp specialist" either. Special teams are a hugely important part of the game lol. But I think labelling someone a pp specialist simply because he's good on the PP is silly anyways, Zadina literally has more points 5v5 than on the PP.

News to me. You were quoting takeaways and blocks not a few posts ago.

7 minutes ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

I did get you there btw, if you look at the last few weeks all his stats are better. He's better at this moment. I'm not sure why you're even arguing this part tbh.

You're citing a small sample hot streak.

Anecdotally I still prefer Fabbri, and statistically on the season the numbers still support Fabbri.

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45 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

He was on PP1 literally the last game, it kinda comes with being promoted to 1st line. Zadina has some of the most PP time on the team. He's the #6 PP man in terms of ice time since Cholowski left the team.

News to me. You were quoting takeaways and blocks not a few posts ago.

You're citing a small sample hot streak.

Anecdotally I still prefer Fabbri, and statistically on the season the numbers still support Fabbri.

He scored his goal on PP2 and I don't recall ever seeing him on 1, for the past few games that is. 

Since he's been on the team he's 5th in pp time. You know who's first? It starts with an F. In fact Fabbri's third since he joined the team, just behind Larkin and Bertuzzi.

I've referenced offensive talent multiple times, you must not be reading closely. It's how the conversation started when I quoted your list of offensive talent.

My point is that Zadina is the better offensive player right now, he is. Originally, I only meant recently, but really if you look at Fabbri's total 43 games (both Wings and Blues) his points per 60 is just lower. That's all strengths of course, because PP matters imo. 

Statistically, 5v5 points per game numbers support Fabbri if you include all of Fabbri's 43 games (1.7 vs 1.57). That's pretty much it though. Zadina shoots more, scores more, creates more rebounds, has more rush attempts, is involved in the goals that are scored when he's on the ice more, and most importantly has been better the last 26 games even 5v5. Also, he's doing it at 20 in his first real season.  Anecdotally and statistically, I prefer Zadina. 

Also, 26 games isn't really a "small sample hot streak". It's a large chunk of the season. 

Edited by Wheelchairsuperhero

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2 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/detroit-red-wings/line-combinations/

PP1:

Bertuzzi - Larkin - Fabbri
Hronek - Zadina

No you shouldn't use his AHL stats, you should use Zadina's whole season AND Fabbris. Per/60 is an average stat so it doesn't matter how many more games Fabbri played. He's a better scorer at even strength so far this season objectively.

This change happened several games ago.

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8 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

And Fabbri is on pace for a 55 pt season. Are you proving my point?

  • Fabbri turned 24 two days ago
  • Zadina turned 20 two months ago
  • Fabbri has played 43 NHL games this season
  • Zadina has played 26 NHL games this season
  • Fabbri is scoring at a 0.55 PPG clip this season
  • Zadina is scoring at a 0.58 PPG clip this season
  • Fabbri is on pace for 74 games played, 19 goals, 22 assists, 41 points (0.55 PPG) this season
  • Zadina is on pace for 57 games played, 18 goals, 15 assists, 33 points (0.58 PPG) this season
  • Fabbri's current-season shooting percentage is 14.9 (career is 13)
  • Zadina's current-season shooting percentage is 14.3 (career is 12.2)
  • Fabbri's current-season average time on ice is 17:18
  • Zadina's current-season average time on ice is 14:52
  • Fabbri's current-season zone starts split is 52% O, 48% D
  • Zadina's current-season zone starts split is 51.6% O, 48.4% D
  • Fabbri's current-season "corsi for %" at even strength is 47.2 and his current-season "relative corsi for %" at even strength is 2.7
  • Zadina's current-season "corsi for %" at even strength is 46 and his current-season "relative corsi for %" at even strength is 0.9
  • Fabbri's current-season "expected goals for" is 15.3 and his current-season "expected goals against" is 19.3 (-4)
  • Zadina's current-season "expected goals for" is 10.2 and his current-season "expected goals against" is 11.8 (-1.5)

tl;dr Very similar players at this point in time. Zadina is more valuable and more "projectable," as he's performing at Fabbri's level despite being significantly younger and having significantly less NHL experience. Ludicrously small sample size for the rookie, though, so we shouldn't get carried away just yet.

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23 minutes ago, Dabura said:
  • Fabbri turned 24 two days ago
  • Zadina turned 20 two months ago
  • Fabbri has played 43 NHL games this season
  • Zadina has played 26 NHL games this season
  • Fabbri is scoring at a 0.55 PPG clip this season
  • Zadina is scoring at a 0.58 PPG clip this season
  • Fabbri is on pace for 74 games played, 19 goals, 22 assists, 41 points (0.55 PPG) this season
  • Zadina is on pace for 57 games played, 18 goals, 15 assists, 33 points (0.58 PPG) this season
  • Fabbri's current-season shooting percentage is 14.9 (career is 13)
  • Zadina's current-season shooting percentage is 14.3 (career is 12.2)
  • Fabbri's current-season average time on ice is 17:18
  • Zadina's current-season average time on ice is 14:52
  • Fabbri's current-season zone starts split is 52% O, 48% D
  • Zadina's current-season zone starts split is 51.6% O, 48.4% D
  • Fabbri's current-season "corsi for %" at even strength is 47.2 and his current-season "relative corsi for %" at even strength is 2.7
  • Zadina's current-season "corsi for %" at even strength is 46 and his current-season "relative corsi for %" at even strength is 0.9
  • Fabbri's current-season "expected goals for" is 15.3 and his current-season "expected goals against" is 19.3 (-4)
  • Zadina's current-season "expected goals for" is 10.2 and his current-season "expected goals against" is 11.8 (-1.5)

tl;dr Very similar players at this point in time. Zadina is more valuable and more "projectable," as he's performing at Fabbri's level despite being significantly younger and having significantly less NHL experience. Ludicrously small sample size for the rookie, though, so we shouldn't get carried away just yet.

Listen here Mr Smarty Pants nobody asked for your fancy stats...

:tease:

Edited by F.Michael

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11 hours ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

He scored his goal on PP2 and I don't recall ever seeing him on 1, for the past few games that is. 

Since he's been on the team he's 5th in pp time. You know who's first? It starts with an F. In fact Fabbri's third since he joined the team, just behind Larkin and Bertuzzi.

I've referenced offensive talent multiple times, you must not be reading closely. It's how the conversation started when I quoted your list of offensive talent.

My point is that Zadina is the better offensive player right now, he is. Originally, I only meant recently, but really if you look at Fabbri's total 43 games (both Wings and Blues) his points per 60 is just lower. That's all strengths of course, because PP matters imo. 

Statistically, 5v5 points per game numbers support Fabbri if you include all of Fabbri's 43 games (1.7 vs 1.57). That's pretty much it though. Zadina shoots more, scores more, creates more rebounds, has more rush attempts, is involved in the goals that are scored when he's on the ice more, and most importantly has been better the last 26 games even 5v5. Also, he's doing it at 20 in his first real season.  Anecdotally and statistically, I prefer Zadina. 

Also, 26 games isn't really a "small sample hot streak". It's a large chunk of the season. 

It's still discounting what Fabbri did before Zadina joined the team

Fabbri is the better player offensively per minute of even strength time. If you prefer the PP guy, fine. I prefer players who perform at even strength.

2 hours ago, Dabura said:
  • Fabbri turned 24 two days ago
  • Zadina turned 20 two months ago
  • Fabbri has played 43 NHL games this season
  • Zadina has played 26 NHL games this season
  • Fabbri is scoring at a 0.55 PPG clip this season
  • Zadina is scoring at a 0.58 PPG clip this season
  • Fabbri is on pace for 74 games played, 19 goals, 22 assists, 41 points (0.55 PPG) this season
  • Zadina is on pace for 57 games played, 18 goals, 15 assists, 33 points (0.58 PPG) this season
  • Fabbri's current-season shooting percentage is 14.9 (career is 13)
  • Zadina's current-season shooting percentage is 14.3 (career is 12.2)
  • Fabbri's current-season average time on ice is 17:18
  • Zadina's current-season average time on ice is 14:52
  • Fabbri's current-season zone starts split is 52% O, 48% D
  • Zadina's current-season zone starts split is 51.6% O, 48.4% D
  • Fabbri's current-season "corsi for %" at even strength is 47.2 and his current-season "relative corsi for %" at even strength is 2.7
  • Zadina's current-season "corsi for %" at even strength is 46 and his current-season "relative corsi for %" at even strength is 0.9
  • Fabbri's current-season "expected goals for" is 15.3 and his current-season "expected goals against" is 19.3 (-4)
  • Zadina's current-season "expected goals for" is 10.2 and his current-season "expected goals against" is 11.8 (-1.5)

tl;dr Very similar players at this point in time. Zadina is more valuable and more "projectable," as he's performing at Fabbri's level despite being significantly younger and having significantly less NHL experience. Ludicrously small sample size for the rookie, though, so we shouldn't get carried away just yet.

Fabbri's points per 60 during 5v5 is better than Zadina's though

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