Mantha might be done for the year - what now

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

3 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

The power-play is part of a players offensive stats though. That's why your argument is dumb. 

I'm done with this. 

Everything you don't understand seems to be "dumb" all the time.

The Red Wings have spent roughly 9% of the season on the PP. And roughly 22% of our goals have come on the PP.

That means 91% of the game is NOT being played on the PP, and 78% of our goals are NOT coming on the PP. I prefer players who can get it done in this much bigger chunk of the game where it's even harder to play because the opponent has another man on the ice. It's not dumb, it's rather simple.

This does not mean I don't want players who excel at the PP. We needed help there, and Zadina's help is welcome.

But if you offer me the choice between someone who doesn't need the PP to score a lot and a guy who does need the PP to score a lot. I take the later over the former every-time and twice on Sunday. The PP is only a small fraction of the game as a whole.

[krsmith17 7,191]

51 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Everything you don't understand seems to be "dumb" all the time.

The Red Wings have spent roughly 9% of the season on the PP. And roughly 22% of our goals have come on the PP.

That means 91% of the game is NOT being played on the PP, and 78% of our goals are NOT coming on the PP. I prefer players who can get it done in this much bigger chunk of the game where it's even harder to play because the opponent has another man on the ice. It's not dumb, it's rather simple.

This does not mean I don't want players who excel at the PP. We needed help there, and Zadina's help is welcome.

But if you offer me the choice between someone who doesn't need the PP to score a lot and a guy who does need the PP to score a lot. I take the later over the former every-time and twice on Sunday. The PP is only a small fraction of the game as a whole.

There's nothing you're saying that I "don't understand". You're argument is just dumb... You're saying that the power-play should not be taken into account when discussing a players offensive ability, because it's a smaller part of the game. It's still a very important part of the game.

How often do we hear, "special teams win hockey games"? You need to have a good power-play and a good penalty kill to be good hockey team.

The Red Wings power-play has not been near good enough. Zadina has been a bright spot on an otherwise terrible power-play (without Mantha). 

This is also an extremely small sample size. Zadina has about half of his points on the power-play so far this season. Do you think that's going to maintain longterm? I doubt it. Power-play points matter and should absolutely be taken into account when discussing how offensively talented a player is.

I don't know why I got involved in this to begin with, and why I'm still discussing it at this point. We don't agree and we won't agree. Leave it at that.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

14 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

There's nothing you're saying that I "don't understand". You're argument is just dumb... You're saying that the power-play should not be taken into account when discussing a players offensive ability, because it's a smaller part of the game. It's still a very important part of the game.

The ironic part is I just listed all kinds of PP stats and praised Zadina for his work there

15 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

How often do we hear, "special teams win hockey games"? You need to have a good power-play and a good penalty kill to be good hockey team.

Lol you're listening way too much to the talking heads. "SPECIAL TEAMS win hockey games" is a trope. A meme.

Good teams win hockey games and 5v5 play wins hockey games, because that's where 90% of a hockey game occurs, and 80% of goals are scored.

Bad teams don't make the playoffs cause their PP was good.

27 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

The Red Wings power-play has not been near good enough. Zadina has been a bright spot on an otherwise terrible power-play (without Mantha). 

Bad teams almost always have bad PP's. Look around the league. The only time you should be concerned about a bad PP is when ur team is good otherwise.

29 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

This is also an extremely small sample size. Zadina has about half of his points on the power-play so far this season. Do you think that's going to maintain longterm? I doubt it. Power-play points matter and should absolutely be taken into account when discussing how offensively talented a player is.

I don't have a crystal ball, I have the reality in front of us. And right now that paints the picture of a PP specialist.

[krsmith17 7,191]

1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Good teams win hockey games and 5v5 play wins hockey games, because that's where 90% of a hockey game occurs, and 80% of goals are scored.

Good players also produce a lot on the power-play. You don't discount a player's offensive ability, just because he gets points on the power-play.

Almost half of McDavid's 76 points this season have come on the power-play. So what?

1 hour ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Bad teams don't make the playoffs cause their PP was good.

Bad teams almost always have bad PP's. Look around the league. The only time you should be concerned about a bad PP is when ur team is good otherwise.

I never suggested otherwise.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

4 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Good players also produce a lot on the power-play. You don't discount a player's offensive ability, just because he gets points on the power-play.

Almost half of McDavid's 76 points this season have come on the power-play. So what?

*sigh* I'm still not saying PP gets thrown out the window completely. It's just only 10-20% of the game. So I definitely look at a players 5v5 production ahead of their PP production. Which is why signing a big PP specialist like Torey Krug this summer might be a HUGE mistake for us.

McDavid still top 6 in the league in 5v5 points.

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by ChristopherReevesLegs

[krsmith17 7,191]

7 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

*sigh* I'm still not saying PP gets thrown out the window completely. It's just only 10-20% of the game. So I definitely look at a players 5v5 production ahead of their PP production. Which is why signing a big PP specialist like Torey Krug this summer might be a HUGE mistake for us.

You kind of are though...

Everyone: "Zadina has been better offensively this season". (all situations)

CRL: "No he hasn't. Fabbri has been better at 5-on-5".

But you're not saying power-play stats don't get thrown out the window? Okay...

7 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

McDavid still top 6 in the league in 5v5 points.

So I guess that makes McDavid the 6th best player in the league offensively...

[kipwinger 8,521]

For what it's worth, most modern analytic models don't use powerplay shot totals for precisely this reason.  It inflates a players value, relative to their actual overall contribution.  So if you're a fan of Corsi, WAR, WOWY, GF/60, GA/60 or any other modern method of assessing player value you're implicitly agreeing with @ChristopherReevesLegs. 

[Spongewingredpants 75]

what now? We hope for the no. 1 draft pick

[marcaractac 3,962]

24 minutes ago, Spongewingredpants said:

what now? We hope for the no. 1 draft pick

That's the dream. Winning Lafreniere.

[The 91 of Ryans 3,014]

28 minutes ago, Spongewingredpants said:

what now? We hope for the no. 1 draft pick

what a great idea

[ely s 457]

We scored 108 goals so far, 71 of them at even strength, 24 on the powerplay plus 4 with an extra attacker, 3 shorties and 6 empty netters.

That´s 26% of our goals scored with the man advantage with a pp% at 14,8% , 24 goals in 162 pp opp. If our pp% goes up to 21% (good for 12th in the league) that would have been 10 goals more. Adding 9% on our goal total. So to me help on the pp is very welcome.

 

[kipwinger 8,521]

3 minutes ago, ely s said:

We scored 108 goals so far, 71 of them at even strength, 24 on the powerplay plus 4 with an extra attacker, 3 shorties and 6 empty netters.

That´s 26% of our goals scored with the man advantage with a pp% at 14,8% , 24 goals in 162 pp opp. If our pp% goes up to 21% (good for 12th in the league) that would have been 10 goals more. Adding 9% on our goal total. So to me help on the pp is very welcome.

 

I don't think anyone would disagree that it's better to have a more effective powerplay than a less effective one.  But that's basically a truism. 10 more goals across 51 games, given that our goals against average is 3.88, would not materially affect our record or the outcome of almost any of our games.  And that's if all those goals came in loses.  There's every chance a few would have come during wins, thus diminishing any added value they might have had. 

The truth is that this team gets BADLY outplayed at in every single aspect of the game, and added a few more powerplay goals wouldn't change that.

[krsmith17 7,191]

1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

For what it's worth, most modern analytic models don't use powerplay shot totals for precisely this reason.  It inflates a players value, relative to their actual overall contribution.  So if you're a fan of Corsi, WAR, WOWY, GF/60, GA/60 or any other modern method of assessing player value you're implicitly agreeing with @ChristopherReevesLegs. 

Sure, but when comparing two players that have similar usage in all situations (including power-play), you should take that into consideration when evaluating their offensive game.

I'd understand not taking power-play time into account if we were comparing Filppula to Helm or whatever, but Fabbri and Zadina have had similar opportunity on the power-play.

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

12 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

You kind of are though...

Everyone: "Zadina has been better offensively this season". (all situations)

CRL: "No he hasn't. Fabbri has been better at 5-on-5".

But you're not saying power-play stats don't get thrown out the window? Okay...

So I guess that makes McDavid the 6th best player in the league offensively...

lol

9 hours ago, kipwinger said:

For what it's worth, most modern analytic models don't use powerplay shot totals for precisely this reason.  It inflates a players value, relative to their actual overall contribution.  So if you're a fan of Corsi, WAR, WOWY, GF/60, GA/60 or any other modern method of assessing player value you're implicitly agreeing with @ChristopherReevesLegs. 

Thank you

7 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Sure, but when comparing two players that have similar usage in all situations (including power-play), you should take that into consideration when evaluating their offensive game.

I'd understand not taking power-play time into account if we were comparing Filppula to Helm or whatever, but Fabbri and Zadina have had similar opportunity on the power-play.

Muh PP - KRSmith 2020

Anyway I'd love to talk about how much Larkin sucks ass this year if anyone other than Muh PP would like to chime in

[Wheelchairsuperhero 1,453]

On 1/27/2020 at 1:08 PM, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

His time in STL where he was either scratched or on the 4th line...

Even if was getting top line minutes there, I wouldn't care though. I care about how he plays here in our systems with our players.

I have no issue with Zadina scoring on the PP, that's a good thing. I'm just saying that adjusted for ice time Fabbri scores more at even strength and I prefer players who do that.

You don't know what a strawman is. I haven't manipulated or intentionally misinterpreted your premise at all. I understand what it is and I reject it. And I've explained why. Carry on.

Completely disagree, but the futility in arguing it is obvious. 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Wheelchairsuperhero

[Dabura 12,207]

On 1/27/2020 at 1:08 PM, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

His time in STL where he was either scratched or on the 4th line...

Even if was getting top line minutes there, I wouldn't care though. I care about how he plays here in our systems with our players.

I have no issue with Zadina scoring on the PP, that's a good thing. I'm just saying that adjusted for ice time Fabbri scores more at even strength and I prefer players who do that.

if u love fabbri so much why don't u marry him

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

How about we talk about Cholowski in this thread and Fabbri vs. Zadina in the Fabbri vs. Zadina thread.

[krsmith17 7,191]

7 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

How about we talk about Cholowski in this thread and Fabbri vs. Zadina in the Fabbri vs. Zadina thread.

Why would we talk about Cholowski in the Mantha thread? That would be dumb...

[Neomaxizoomdweebie 3,083]

2 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

Why would we talk about Cholowski in the Mantha thread? That would be dumb...

That's the point. All of the threads are merging. I don't know which one I'm reading / posting in anymore. It's chaos!

Edited January 30, 2020 by Neomaxizoomdweebie

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

15 hours ago, Wheelchairsuperhero said:

Completely disagree, but the futility in arguing it is obvious. 

Premise: Since joining the team Zadina has scored more at 5v5 than Fabbri
Conclusion: Zadina is the better offensive player (since joining the team)

Strawman: An intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

I haven't misrepresented or twisted your argument in the slightest. I simply rejected your premise. "Since Zadina joined the team" is an arbitrary time period I don't care to measure. So you're free to come to that conclusion based on the parameters you set, but it's a conclusion that lacks any sort of merit in the spirit of the discussion because of the parameters you set in the premise IMHO. And me stating that isn't a strawman. It approaches your argument head on.

A true example of a strawman to your argument would be me saying: "Since Zadina joined the team Fabbri has had to pick up his slack on defense, and that's why Fabbri hasn't scored as much as him" - I've twisted the conversation towards Zadina's defense and successfully committed a strawman fallacy.

13 hours ago, Dabura said:

if u love fabbri so much why don't u marry him

Seriously the Fabbri hate needs to stop

This kid literally just turned 24, and only has 34 games with the team so far. It's way too early to call him a bust. He's still getting acclimated to the systems in Detroit and learning his teammates names for pete sake. He's also a 1st round pick and still in his Stanley cup hangover period. So the potential is there, and when the hangover is over this kid is going to explode. Give him time before you draw any rash conclusions. Did I mention he won a Stanley cup?

The future is Fab

Edited January 30, 2020 by ChristopherReevesLegs

[krsmith17 7,191]

10 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Seriously the Fabbri hate needs to stop

This kid literally just turned 24, and only has 34 games with the team so far. It's way too early to call him a bust. He's still getting acclimated to the systems in Detroit and learning his teammates names for pete sake. He's also a 1st round pick and still in his Stanley cup hangover period. So the potential is there, and when the hangover is over this kid is going to explode. Give him time before you draw any rash conclusions. Did I mention he won a Stanley cup?

The future is Fab

I know you're not serious, but as far as I know, everyone (except nyquististhefuture) loves Fabbri. No hate. No one talking about bust. Really good middle six winger. Great Nyquist replacement (ironically)...

[marcaractac 3,962]

17 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Premise: Since joining the team Zadina has scored more at 5v5 than Fabbri
Conclusion: Zadina is the better offensive player (since joining the team)

Strawman: An intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

I haven't misrepresented or twisted your argument in the slightest. I simply rejected your premise. "Since Zadina joined the team" is an arbitrary time period I don't care to measure. So you're free to come to that conclusion based on the parameters you set, but it's a conclusion that lacks any sort of merit in the spirit of the discussion because of the parameters you set in the premise IMHO. And me stating that isn't a strawman. It approaches your argument head on.

A true example of a strawman to your argument would be me saying: "Since Zadina joined the team Fabbri has had to pick up his slack on defense, and that's why Fabbri hasn't scored as much as him" - I've twisted the conversation towards Zadina's defense and successfully committed a strawman fallacy.

Seriously the Fabbri hate needs to stop

This kid literally just turned 24, and only has 34 games with the team so far. It's way too early to call him a bust. He's still getting acclimated to the systems in Detroit and learning his teammates names for pete sake. He's also a 1st round pick and still in his Stanley cup hangover period. So the potential is there, and when the hangover is over this kid is going to explode. Give him time before you draw any rash conclusions. Did I mention he won a Stanley cup?

The future is Fab

Bold 1: You're both choosing specific stats that agree with your arguments. From each point of view, you're both correct. What you say about both players total time with Detroit is true. What he says about both players since Zadina got called up is true. You both get a sticker. 

Bold 2: Nobody is hating Fabbri (except nyqvististhefuture, but he is always wrong anyway). We all love Fabbri. Fabbri is love. Fabbri is life.

Conclusion: Zadina and Fabbri are both awesome and will both be important, core players on this team going forward.

Edited January 30, 2020 by marcaractac

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

15 minutes ago, marcaractac said:

Bold 1: You're both choosing specific stats that agree with your arguments. From each point of view, you're both correct. What you say about both players total time with Detroit is true. What he says about both players since Zadina got called up is true. You both get a sticker.

Right, and the argument I'd make about the parameters of the stats is that "since zadina joined the team" is a completely arbitrary frame of reference, especially from Fabbri's POV. We can easily turn it on it's head and say "since Fabbri joined the team, he's been the better 5v5 player as compared to Zadina". While, it's sort of the inverse argument, at least that time frame encapsulates both players entire body of work for the team this season.

24 minutes ago, marcaractac said:

Bold 2: Nobody is hating Fabbri (except nyqvististhefuture, but he is always wrong anyway). We all love Fabbri. Fabbri is love. Fabbri is life.

"I don't hate Italians. I have lots friends who are Italian" Surrrrrre guy

There are folks over in the draft thread discussing flipping Fabbri for picks at the deadline. Can you imagine the uproar if I suggested flipping Zadina for picks at the TDL? It seems there's one set of rules for Zadina haters and another for you Fabbri haters. It's unjust. It's unfair. And flatout wrong.

[marcaractac 3,962]

7 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Right, and the argument I'd make about the parameters of the stats is that "since zadina joined the team" is a completely arbitrary frame of reference, especially from Fabbri's POV. We can easily turn it on it's head and say "since Fabbri joined the team, he's been the better 5v5 player as compared to Zadina". While, it's sort of the inverse argument, at least that time frame encapsulates both players entire body of work for the team this season.

"I don't hate Italians. I have lots friends who are Italian" Surrrrrre guy

There are folks over in the draft thread discussing flipping Fabbri for picks at the deadline. Can you imagine the uproar if I suggested flipping Zadina for picks at the TDL? It seems there's one set of rules for Zadina haters and another for you Fabbri haters. It's unjust. It's unfair. And flatout wrong.

Bold 1: Technically their time as red wings could be considered arbitrary as well due to them both having played a different # of games with the team. In the end, I just figure it's more of a hey, let's see where they are after a full season type of convo. Regardless of which approach to the stats you both take, it's an extremely small sample size regardless.

Bold 2:  It would be dumb as f*** to flip either of them at the deadline unless someone was stupid enough to give us a top 10 pick for them. Anything beyond that it's a crap shot if you even get anyone as good as both of them are now. They are both young, they both have shown enough that they have potential to be big time players for this team. So yeah, folks suggesting that are idiots. 

#TeamFabbriandZadina

Edited January 30, 2020 by marcaractac

[ChristopherReevesLegs 7,022]

6 minutes ago, marcaractac said:

Bold 1: Technically their time as red wings could be considered arbitrary as well due to them both having played a different # of games with the team. In the end, I just figure it's more of a hey, let's see where they are after a full season type of convo. Regardless of which approach to the stats you both take, it's an extremely small sample size regardless.

If that's considered arbitrary, then it would be almost impossible to ever compare most players. At least under my parameters neither player is having any of their points scored excluded from the discussion.

9 minutes ago, marcaractac said:

Bold 2:  It would be dumb as f*** to flip either of them at the deadline unless someone was stupid enough to give us a top 10 pick for them. Anything beyond that it's a crap shot if you even get anyone as good as both of them are now. They are both young, they both have shown enough that they have potential to be big time players for this team. So yeah, folks suggesting that are idiots. 

#TeamFabbriandZadina

You should be posting this in the draft thread for all the Fabbri haters. "If you see something. Say something."

Maybe we can flip Zadina for a top10 pick and draft Askarov