• Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

krsmith17

2020 Offseason

Rate this topic

Recommended Posts

40 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Why the negativity? Staal would still garner a decent pick. He's on an expiring contract and most of his salary will have been paid by the TDL. No need to retain salary. Easy trade for a playoff team looking to bolster their D.

Payback for Brendan Smith?

I wonder what the reaction would have been if we got a 1st for Staal but also had to take back Smith. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

So, not only are you going to cherry pick one stat, but you're also going to cherry pick the season's, and conveniently throw out this past season (most recent, and maybe most telling), because Howard sucked, and Markstrom was really good...

Save% is just as, if not a more telling stat than GAA, but you don't want to use that because it exposes your theory...

You throw out Howard's 2019-20 stats as I can only assume, an outlier, but also throw out Markstrom's 2019-20 stats, despite it being right in line with his other season's... It makes no sense...

Here are their Save% over the same time frame (5 years). Except I'm actually going to use the past 5 season's, not the past 5 season's *before this past season*...

Markstrom since 2015-16 - 0.915, 0.910, 0.912, 0.912, 0.918

5 year average - 0.9134

Howard since 2015-16 - 0.906, 0.927, 0.910, 0.909, 0.882

5 year average - 0.9068

If you really want to throw out this past season for Howard, as some sort of aberration, and not an assumed decline...

4 year average (prior to this past season) - 0.913

Markstrom is still ever so slightly better, throwing out the most recent season, assuming Howard hasn't hit a brick wall, and will miraculously beat the odds, and rebound in his 36 year old season...

So yeah, Markstrom has been better in recent years (including or, in your case, excluding this past season). We can argue all day what they're worth, but there's no doubt that Markstrom will be worth more (debatable how much) for longer, being 6 years younger than Howard...

I wasn't "cherry picking". You originally said that Markstrom has been better than Howard for the past 6 years. That's not true. They have both had back and forth seasons in that time. And if you remove Jimmy's last season, his GAA was actually better up until then. And their save % was exactly the same over those years. And that's also considering that Jimmy was also 6 years older.

Again. If you compare their numbers thru the same ages, Jimmy's are better. If you think Jimmy has been bad in his 30s, than Markstrom's 30s will be worse according to their statistical pattern. And you still think that Markstrom in his 30s will be better. He wont. And he won't be worth signing to the kind of money he is going to get because he will most likely put up numbers worse than Jimmy's were over the same ages.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

I wasn't "cherry picking".

You were very much cherry picking stats, and seasons. You want to omit last season for Howard because it was supposedly an outlier, and not a sign of significant decline. Well let's also omit 2016-17, since that was also an outlier...

26 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

You originally said that Markstrom has been better than Howard for the past 6 years. That's not true. They have both had back and forth seasons in that time. And if you remove Jimmy's last season, his GAA was actually better up until then. And their save % was exactly the same over those years. And that's also considering that Jimmy was also 6 years older.

I said Markstrom has been better in all but one of those seasons, which is true.

No stat is perfect, but Save% is a much better stat for goalies than GAA. Goalie A sees 10 shots in a game, and let's in two goals. His GAA is 2.00, but his Save% is 0.800. Goalie B sees 30 shots in a game, and let's in 2 goals. His GAA is also 2.00, but his Save% is 0.933. Which goalie played the better game?

27 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Again. If you compare their numbers thru the same ages, Jimmy's are better. If you think Jimmy has been bad in his 30s, than Markstrom's 30s will be worse according to their statistical pattern. And you still think that Markstrom in his 30s will be better. He wont. And he won't be worth signing to the kind of money he is going to get because he will most likely put up numbers worse than Jimmy's were over the same ages.

I don't get the "at the same age" argument... You can't assume that Markstrom will hit the same sort of decline at the same age. No two players (goalies) progress or regress at the same rate. Howard has already hit a decline. That doesn't mean Markstrom will too at the same age.

I'd love to get my hands on that crystal ball of yours...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I really hope Yzerman stays out of this... Unless Krug wants to take a major home town discount (I doubt it), no thanks...

depends on what is going back in the trade. What does Boston need or want... I can't see Vegas or Colorado giving up too much to acquire him, unless Boston is going to move away from Rask after the things he said when he left the bubble, then maybe they'll trade MAF for him to make some cap room. Colorado may give up it's 1st round pick this year since Boston traded theirs in the Backes deal. Florida has the 12th OA pick, so I am not sure they'd part with that. Detroit is in no way trading it's 1st round, so like I said, it all depends on what Boston asks for in return.

I know they probably won't demand a ransom because Krug still is, after all, a UFA to be, BUT if Colorado dangles the 1st rounder out there, I could see Boston jumping at it.  For us, I wouldn't mind if we had to give up Cholowski or Svech or Lindstrom, but there damn well already be a contract ready for him to sign when the deal is made. 8yrs $10M per would not be too far fetched and if he did take a bit of a discount that would be even better!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Why the negativity? Staal would still garner a decent pick. He's on an expiring contract and most of his salary will have been paid by the TDL. No need to retain salary. Easy trade for a playoff team looking to bolster their D.

Payback for Brendan Smith?

I dont know about easy trade , marc staal isnt the staal of old he’s horrible now ... fans will hate him by the end of the season

whatever we got a pick 

29 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I really hope Yzerman stays out of this... Unless Krug wants to take a major home town discount (I doubt it), no thanks...

Yup f*** krug if we’re forced into this crap i hope we trade dekeyser and possibly nemeth , no need to have  4 veteran dmen to teach 2d kids 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, LeftWinger said:

depends on what is going back in the trade. What does Boston need or want... I can't see Vegas or Colorado giving up too much to acquire him, unless Boston is going to move away from Rask after the things he said when he left the bubble, then maybe they'll trade MAF for him to make some cap room. Colorado may give up it's 1st round pick this year since Boston traded theirs in the Backes deal. Florida has the 12th OA pick, so I am not sure they'd part with that. Detroit is in no way trading it's 1st round, so like I said, it all depends on what Boston asks for in return.

I know they probably won't demand a ransom because Krug still is, after all, a UFA to be, BUT if Colorado dangles the 1st rounder out there, I could see Boston jumping at it.  For us, I wouldn't mind if we had to give up Cholowski or Svech or Lindstrom, but there damn well already be a contract ready for him to sign when the deal is made. 8yrs $10M per would not be too far fetched and if he did take a bit of a discount that would be even better!

What?!?!? No team is giving up anything close to a 1st round pick for negotiating rights. It'll likely be a mid round pick. My point was that I don't think Yzerman should sign him at all, never mind trading for his rights. 8 years at $10M?!?!? Holy massive overpayment... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

What?!?!? No team is giving up anything close to a 1st round pick for negotiating rights. It'll likely be a mid round pick. My point was that I don't think Yzerman should sign him at all, never mind trading for his rights. 8 years at $10M?!?!? Holy massive overpayment... 

I was just guessing high end. If it's more like 8x8, that is even better. I am probably in the minority but I kinda hope he does trade for his rights. If it costs us a middle pick, or maybe even a middle prospect, I am ok with that. 

41 minutes ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

I dont know about easy trade , marc staal isnt the staal of old he’s horrible now ... fans will hate him by the end of the season

whatever we got a pick 

Yup f*** krug if we’re forced into this crap i hope we trade dekeyser and possibly nemeth , no need to have  4 veteran dmen to teach 2d kids 

 

No need to trade DD or Nemeth. DD is always hurt, Nemeth only has one more season, as does Staal. Adding Krug only makes us better. But, I am in the minority, I understand that. Here's a scenario for ya! Acquiring Krug makes Cholowski expendable, Yzerman trades Cholowski plus future considerations to Vancouver for Eriksson and Podkolzin. Would that make you feel any better? It would be awesome. I happen to think that Cholowski is not ever going to be a mainstay on the Detroit club anyhow...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if this has been brought up in regards to buying picks...  does anyone think Anaheim would like to trade Backes to us for #27? 

They look like they're tight against the cap for 20/21

 ( I'd love VCR's 1st in 2021 for Eriksson)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone who thinks Krug will end up making more than 7 million per season is hilarious. MAYBE he gets 7.5 is a GM panics.

 

3 hours ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Why the negativity? Staal would still garner a decent pick. He's on an expiring contract and most of his salary will have been paid by the TDL. No need to retain salary. Easy trade for a playoff team looking to bolster their D.

He doesn't have the intellect to discuss anything other than in extremes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, marcaractac said:

Anyone who thinks Krug will end up making more than 7 million per season is hilarious. MAYBE he gets 7.5 is a GM panics

Exactly. I think if Yzerman trades for his rights he can get him in at 6.5 x 8. 

I just see a few other teams (contenders) being more desperate for an upgrade. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Exactly. I think if Yzerman trades for his rights he can get him in at 6.5 x 8. 

I just see a few other teams (contenders) being more desperate for an upgrade. 

With the cap staying put for some time, contenders can't afford to throw that kind of money around. That IMO increases our chances of landing him at a "discount".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Exactly. I think if Yzerman trades for his rights he can get him in at 6.5 x 8. 

I just see a few other teams (contenders) being more desperate for an upgrade. 

I'd be okay with $6.5M, but not 8 years. I think that could be a very bad contract in the latter half. If he were 25, sure. But 29, no thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

What?!?!? No team is giving up anything close to a 1st round pick for negotiating rights. It'll likely be a mid round pick. My point was that I don't think Yzerman should sign him at all, never mind trading for his rights. 8 years at $10M?!?!? Holy massive overpayment... 

Experts are projecting it will be a 5th rounder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nyqvististhefuture said:

I dont know about easy trade , marc staal isnt the staal of old he’s horrible now ... fans will hate him by the end of the season

whatever we got a pick 

Yup f*** krug if we’re forced into this crap i hope we trade dekeyser and possibly nemeth , no need to have  4 veteran dmen to teach 2d kids 

 

Yzerman got a 2nd round pick to acquire him. He'll be a decent mentor to pair on the left side with one of our young RHD during the season. Then Yzerman will trade him at the TDL for another pick without retaining any salary. I really cant find anything to complain about. This is literally the kind of trade you advocate for.

Edited by Neomaxizoomdweebie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LeftWinger said:

I was just guessing high end. If it's more like 8x8, that is even better. I am probably in the minority but I kinda hope he does trade for his rights. If it costs us a middle pick, or maybe even a middle prospect, I am ok with that. 

No need to trade DD or Nemeth. DD is always hurt, Nemeth only has one more season, as does Staal. Adding Krug only makes us better. But, I am in the minority, I understand that. Here's a scenario for ya! Acquiring Krug makes Cholowski expendable, Yzerman trades Cholowski plus future considerations to Vancouver for Eriksson and Podkolzin. Would that make you feel any better? It would be awesome. I happen to think that Cholowski is not ever going to be a mainstay on the Detroit club anyhow...

Adding krug will be a mistake once he starts hitting 34-38 ... i know we suck and we’re desperate for good players but we also cant f*** it up cause we’re desperate 

Cholowski is looking to be expendable and sadly on his way out soon regardless (hes been a dissapointment,but at 22 i havent given up on him same as svech) Id like podkolzin but dont know if that gets it done

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

You were very much cherry picking stats, and seasons. You want to omit last season for Howard because it was supposedly an outlier, and not a sign of significant decline. Well let's also omit 2016-17, since that was also an outlier...

I said Markstrom has been better in all but one of those seasons, which is true.

No stat is perfect, but Save% is a much better stat for goalies than GAA. Goalie A sees 10 shots in a game, and let's in two goals. His GAA is 2.00, but his Save% is 0.800. Goalie B sees 30 shots in a game, and let's in 2 goals. His GAA is also 2.00, but his Save% is 0.933. Which goalie played the better game?

I don't get the "at the same age" argument... You can't assume that Markstrom will hit the same sort of decline at the same age. No two players (goalies) progress or regress at the same rate. Howard has already hit a decline. That doesn't mean Markstrom will too at the same age.

I'd love to get my hands on that crystal ball of yours...

Howard was better at age 25 thru 30 than Markstrom, who is now 30. Howard had a down year. Could be due to age, maybe not. Do I predict Markstrom's numbers to be better than Howard's from here on out? Yes. Because Howard is approaching 40 and Markstrom is just reaching his 30s.

Do I expect Markstrom's numbers to be better in his 30s than Jimmy's was? No. Why would I? If Jimmy was a better goalie in his 20s than Markstrom, then I expect Jimmy is a better goalie in his 30s than Markstrom will be. His decline is inevitable too. It doesnt require a crystal ball to use common sense.

Therefore paying Markstrom $6 million is ridiculous. He's not worth that, and it's not smart to do it just because "he's not Jimmy". But some of the Howard haters think that anything is better than Jimmy, even if it's an overpayment.

Also, Markstrom's numbers haven't been much better than Bernier's but somehow paying him almost double Bernie's salary makes sense?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Yzerman got a 2nd round pick to acquire him. He'll be a decent mentor to pair on the left side with one of our young RHD during the season. Then Yzerman will trade him at the TDL for another pick without retaining any salary. I really cant find anything to complain about. This is literally the kind of trade you advocate for.

We’ll have to eat salary , and we’ll be lucky to get anything . He’s a shell of the player he use to be and is a turnover machine and costs alot of goals . Fans will quickly turn on him

As for the trade itself at 5,7 cap hit id have loved to get a 1st and i seen alot of ranger fans saying theyd have traded a 1st to be rid of him . Whatever its a 2nd ... would have liked one this year cause its a deep draft or the 2022 draft.

Whatever its the 2021 draft , im hoping we’ll move it and 45th pick to jump into the 25-30 range and target someone they like who drops (maybe a peterka,khusnutdinov,foerster type if we’re lucky) As i think when the deadline comes and we move nemeth and maybe a few more pieces we might be able to land another 2nd or two so might as well try and use them to move up

Id say use one to get georgiev but i suspect if that was an option we would have got georgiev now with staal .... umm maybe we’ll be picking askarov after all 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Do I predict Markstrom's numbers to be better than Howard's from here on out? Yes. Because Howard is approaching 40 and Markstrom is just reaching his 30s.

Here is your answer. This is all I was getting at. Markstrom is a better option than Howard going forward.

 

42 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Do I expect Markstrom's numbers to be better in his 30s than Jimmy's was? No. Why would I? If Jimmy was a better goalie in his 20s than Markstrom, then I expect Jimmy is a better goalie in his 30s than Markstrom will be. His decline is inevitable too. It doesnt require a crystal ball to use common sense.

Why does any of this matter? Why do we care if Howard was better in his 20's or even early 30's? All that matters is who is going to be better going forward, and you answered that question above...

44 minutes ago, Neomaxizoomdweebie said:

Therefore paying Markstrom $6 million is ridiculous. He's not worth that, and it's not smart to do it just because "he's not Jimmy". But some of the Howard haters think that anything is better than Jimmy, even if it's an overpayment.

Also, Markstrom's numbers haven't been much better than Bernier's but somehow paying him almost double Bernie's salary makes sense?

I've already said that I'd prefer a cheaper option. It's not about Markstrom vs the rest of the options though. It's about Howard vs the rest of the options. And just about any other option is better than Howard at this point in his career, and going forward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, krsmith17 said:

I really hope Yzerman stays out of this... Unless Krug wants to take a major home town discount (I doubt it), no thanks...

It’s not so much that he’d be ‘bad’ for the Red Wings - it’s just that he’s always benefited by having a good defensive partner, and a better group of players as a whole.

I could see his numbers drop like what we had seen with Mike Green.

 I’d rather see Grand Master Y pass on Krug.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, xault said:

I don't hate the trade or anything, but I always love these stories about how good a person some player is, but they deliberately downplay how bad they suck as a player. Regardless of how good this dude is supposed to be in the locker room, he sucks. He's WAY past his usefulness. I'm happy with the 2nd rounder, but let's not kid ourselves, he's not any better than an Ericsson or a Daley.

Filppula/Nemeth = Gagner/Staal. It's the same thing. Just plugging holes while obviously tanking. Pretty sure the "culture" of the team was not worse off in the hands of Filppula, Helm, Abby, Ericsson, and Daley (who have all won Cups) and Green, Nemeth, Dekeyer (who are all quality veterans) than it will be in the hands of Staal and Gagner, guys who have collectively won jack s*** in the NHL.

Edited by kipwinger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now